Vic How would you rate Daniel Andrews' performance as Victorian Premier? - Part 6

[Senor M]

infrequent status report from my hospital

ICU

4 patients in ICU

• 1 unvaccinated (intubated, was transferred to us 10 days ago has been intubated whole time)
• 3 vaccinated, one who is "no longer infectious" (was intubated, now on oxygen and high nursing care), one intubated and one "wardable"

110 ward patients

• 23 not fully vaccinated but includes 5 child under 5 (all viral like presentations - 2 croup, 1 diarrhoea, 1 bronchiolitis, 1 poor feeding in neonate) and 3 with single doses
• 8 others who I can't determine vaccination status (my health record on fritz and not documented by staff)

6 patients in ED waiting for beds

will take me quite some time to determine incidental vs not incidental. There does at an anecdotal level seem to be a fair few dialysis patients (impractical to discharge as transport back and forth for a COVID specific dialysis clinic - and spaces at that clinic - are limited)

in terms of ICU or more generally?
I would take the ICU as small numbers and difficult to draw conclusions (at a raw level 1 out of 3 ICU level patients being unvaxxed is 33% which is much higher than the prevalence of unvaxxed which is ~ 8% of VIC > 12 yo)
for the ward, we need to remove the children from consideration, so the unvaccinated is 18/105 = 17.1% which is still higher (but not as dramatically higher as it used to be) than the unvaccinated prevalence.

I am looking to see how many incidentals there are - including transfers from subacute/ palliative care facilities who can't manage covid even in vaccinated patients, or social limitations imposed by COVID ie quarantine stops community care access therefore needs admission. Its just going to take quite a bit of time...

Why does your anecdotal data vary so significantly than comments from the Victorian government?

 

[Ned_Flanders]

No idea what Craig Kelly has to do with this or his strange comments. Just assumed there would be more unvaccinated in CH’s hospital/ward than the 17%. Not sure if its that much of a reach in terms of being shocked lol.

its not that simple, and this is why numbers can be misleading:

1) WHO ARE THEY?
straight line math only works if the unvaxxed population is proportionally identical to the vaxxed population. We know this isnt the case however. people who are older and have more chronic health conditions are proritized and have higher vax numbers. they are still vulnerable to the virus however (as the vax only reduces the impact of infection, not eliminates it), so are still likely to be repped in ICU data

2) WHERE ARE THEY?
Crankyhawk is one public hospital, and the catchment of that hospital may be unrepresentative to the rest of the nation. as an easy example, Western Health is going to be servicing a lot more essential and public facing workers than Cabrini. Why? Firstly these people are more likely to be in the public system than the private. Secondly more of these workers live in the west and the north, than in inner east. I DO NOT WANT CH DOXXED, but their experience is one experience only, as they have been at pains to state.

3) SIZE MATTERS
Think about you being at a pub. If you ask the people at your table what they are drinking, is that enough of a sample to determine what everyone in the pub on average is drinking? No. While it may be an appropriate size proportionally, its too small to generate the repetition sampling thrives on.

4) WEIGHTING MATTERS
im gunna use some base numbers purely for math purposes.

Lets assume all of the above are sorted, and we do have a representative sample. What does this still mean?

Lets assume we have 100 COVID peeps in ICU beds for 1,000,000 people in the catchment (made up number just for easy math).

And lets assume 90% of the population are vaxxed, and the vaxxed make up 50% of people in the ICU.

On the surface this is "VAX DONT WORK!!! BILL GATES HAS YOU STOOGED!!!!", but this is wrong.

50 ICU of 100,000 unvaxxed is 0.05% of unvaxxed people in ICU

50 ICU of 900,000 vaxxed is 0.005555% of vaxxed people in ICU

so with straight line math you are nine times more likely to get into an ICU if you are unvaxxed

now the real math i believe is a lot worse for the unvaxxed, but again, straight lines are dangerous. You need to do this analysis for each population/risk factor type to make a proper evaluation. we dont have the data to do that, although the nations health depts will be living on it.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Why does your anecdotal data vary so significantly than comments from the Victorian government?

thats not a huge variance - they are talking all of ICU; I have 3 actual ICU patients, 1 unvax, 2 vaccinated. That's small numbers at play (and to be more complete one of the vaccinated is deemed no longer infectious, but is still needing ICU care, and the unvaccinated was sent to us from another ICU due to capacity issues)

if there was one more unvaccinated ICU patient then it would be 50/50 (as stated in the quote you placed)

I can't comment on deaths as the way I get the data is from existing inpatients, so the dead tend not to appear (I am doing a different data search involving ALL admissions with covid since 31/8/21 to 7/1/22 - with the idea to get completed admissions) this will take me a very long time...

 

[Brad Goodman]

I imagine in terms of overall hospitalisations you’d also have to factor in waning immunity for vulnerable double dosed patients?

 

[Golden_6]

I imagine in terms of overall hospitalisations you’d also have to factor in waning immunity for vulnerable double dosed patients?

Yep. Given the massive increase in cases, you’d imagine a lot of people are due for their boosters that haven’t received them.

As a example my 80 year old grandparents got their second shot in late July but only got their booster yesterday. They could easily have been infected over the Christmas break with waning immunity from a 5-6 month second dose. A lot of people in that vulnerable age bracket could be in a similar position.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Vaccinated patients (includes those currently in ICU and ED) (81)

• 51 AZ
• 28 pfizer (error in calculation on last data set saying it was 39 - subtraction failure by myself lol)
• 2 moderna

Unvaccinated/ partially vaccinated (24)

• 21 totally unvaccinated (including 5 children)
• 3 single dose only

Unable to determine which vaccine (15)

• 8 documented as "double dosed" - will include them in vaccinated numbers (a couple of these appear in the medical record to say double vaccinated but the ID people have classed it as not vaccinated, I have gone with what the patient says over the ID conclusion)
• 7 where I cannot tell

So of the 89 vaccinated

• 26 incidental (as varied as birth, GI bleed, strokes, fractures). One was intubated to treat a non COVID condition. I also classed patients who caught covid while in hospital system as incidental (as initial admission for other reasons) - 5 in total
• 63 due to COVID - 70% (AZ 38, moderna 1, pfizer 20, unknown 5) - note that 26/38 AZ needed oxygen, 10/20 pfizer needed oxygen as did the single moderna patient - 37/63 in total needed oxygen - defined even if as minor as nasal prong oxygen)

Of the 19 adult incompletely vaccinated

• 4 incidental
• 15 due to COVID - 78% (9/15 needed oxygen).

So after all that, theres a small trend to vaccinated patients being there for unrelated reasons compared to unvaccinated, and a small trend (58 vs 66.6%) of less oxygen use. I am no statistician but would think it likely that both these findings are not statistically significant.

There were 8 AZ who were due for booster (measured as 4 month) and 3 pfizer due for booster. Not enough to make conclusions

 

[William Wonka]

Victoria is just as made up as NSW and horrible things happened round these parts to.

None of it stopped after weeks or months either.

But do go on with how it's not relevant to today or why invasion day rallies exist

Im disgusted by the horriffic conditions that exist right now for a large percentage of Aboriginal Australians, particularly those living in outback Australia.
Im appalled by the disparity in life expectancy and health outcomes and infuriated by the inability of successive governments to remedy things.
The institutionalized racism within the legal system is terrible and im saddened whenever I think about the (mainly past thankfully) deaths in custody or hear the stories of the stolen generation.


What I could not give a rats arse about is events that occurred before the ****ing Napoleonic wars!

Complaining about events that occurred in the 1700s is not only pointless but pure narcissism.
Pretty much every nation on earth has had huge upheaval and its people gone through massive turmoil and suffering since then.

Its not even vaguely relevant today.

Yet I also couldn't give a flying **** about the date of Australia day- change it to any other day or scrap it, or have three of them is all fine with me.

Im sure one day a government will move it by a week then act like they have achieved some great thing... while kids in Ceduna and Tennant creek continue to have health outcomes the equivalent of a third world country.

 

[Punt rd end]

I had a Pfizer booster Friday after 2 AZ and yesterday i felt cold had a headache and my body ached, today fine, it was a bigger reaction than the 2 AZ.

My 83 yr old mum got covid last Sunday and was dbl Pfizered in June, I don't want to mozz her but thank **** for the vaccine as she has not been bed ridden and is functioning almost normal.

 

[DickieKnee]

I had a Pfizer booster Friday after 2 AZ and yesterday i felt cold had a headache and my body ached, today fine, it was a bigger reaction than the 2 AZ.

My 83 yr old mum got covid last Sunday and was dbl Pfizered in June, I don't want to mozz her but thank fu** for the vaccine as she has not been bed ridden and is functioning almost normal.

It seems to affect people differently. I know 2 relatively young healthy people who have had it, both double vaxxed and both said its the worst thing they've had . Then I know someone who is late 70s smokes and drinks heavily and only got mild symptoms.

 

[Punt rd end]

It seems to affect people differently. I know 2 relatively young healthy people who have had it, both double vaxxed and both said its the worst thing they've had . Then I know someone who is late 70s smokes and drinks heavily and only got mild symptoms.

Yeah my 20 something yr old nieces and nephew sailed through it

 

[hawkman]

Like a really bad cold for me for 5-6 days. Double vaxxed with Pfizer.

 

[Magnum27]

I had a Pfizer booster Friday after 2 AZ and yesterday i felt cold had a headache and my body ached, today fine, it was a bigger reaction than the 2 AZ.

My 83 yr old mum got covid last Sunday and was dbl Pfizered in June, I don't want to mozz her but thank fu** for the vaccine as she has not been bed ridden and is functioning almost normal.

I had two AZ first, and booster with Pfizer, first AZ hit me two days in, next two doses totally fine other than tender at injection site.

 

[Paul Kersey]

3 x Pfizer. First two ok but third floored me. Took circa 48 hours to kick in. Was off for four days.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

I had two AZ first, and booster with Pfizer, first AZ hit me two days in, next two doses totally fine other than tender at injection site.

Similar, a case of the shivers after AZ1, nothing after AZ2, a sore arm after Moderna booster.

 

[Sttew]

I had two AZ first, and booster with Pfizer, first AZ hit me two days in, next two doses totally fine other than tender at injection site.

Exact same for me

 

[DickieKnee]

If you have had 2 AZ jabs what is the better booster Moderna or Pfizer?

 

[Punt rd end]

If you have had 2 AZ jabs what is the better booster Moderna or Pfizer?

I went with Pfizer because family members had it with no dramas

 

[Magnum27]

If you have had 2 AZ jabs what is the better booster Moderna or Pfizer?

I had Pfizer because it was the easiest and quickest option to get it done.

 

[DickieKnee]

I had Pfizer because it was the easiest and quickest option to get it done.

I'm booked in for Friday so don't know if I get a choice. In any case I will take what is available.

 

[FIGJAM]

3 x Pfizer. First two ok but third floored me. Took circa 48 hours to kick in. Was off for four days.

4days? Are you sure you didn't actually jag the virus??

 

[Paul Kersey]

4days? Are you sure you didn't actually jag the virus??

Did a rapid as that’s what I thought. Said negative. Constant headache and hangover feeling. No cough, no sore throat, no nose issues and no fever.

 

[Crankyhawk]

If you have had 2 AZ jabs what is the better booster Moderna or Pfizer?

I don’t think there’s any known difference

 

[Big Bryza]

Which has nothing to do with an article about antivaxxers in hospitals as we were talking about PCR backlogs and tests being dumped

What's the connection to Dictator Dan's performance?

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

If you have had 2 AZ jabs what is the better booster Moderna or Pfizer?

Moderna was all our pharmacy had. I'm sure it's fine.

 

[Joffaboy]

If you have had 2 AZ jabs what is the better booster Moderna or Pfizer?

Anecdotal but I had two AZ as my shots and had a Moderna booster 23rd December. We went to Sydney on Jan 3rd and every place we went we got messages that we were there with covid cases.this means we were exposed with to the virus. Mainly outdoors. Got home, went to the Bulldogs v Melbourne game, have been out and about since and haven't caught it yet.
However it may be that I am one who is immune, the vaccine has in my case stopped me getting it, or I may have been asymptomatic and already had it. I rarely get colds so if Omicron is now about to become endemic, it may be I just aren't susceptible that much

one thing for sure is that I haven't needed to go to a doctor, ER or hospital because of this virus, the same reason I have a flu shot.