Prediction Changes v Hawks in Tassie

[JTCWBFC]

Is this right?

If we lose we're out of finals...

If we win but Carlton wins we're out of finals...

If we win & Carlton loses but by both small margins we're out of finals...

Aka we have to win by a bit & Carlton lose by a bit to squeeze in?

 

[Snarls Barkley]

Is this right?

If we lose we're out of finals...

If we win but Carlton wins we're out of finals...

If we win & Carlton loses but by both small margins we're out of finals...

Aka we have to win by a bit & Carlton lose by a bit to squeeze in?

Pretty much. Think both margins only need to be about 15 points difference considering how close the percentages are

 

[footscray1973]

Yeah I really like Garcia as well. I’m guessing he’s not doing the small things that coaches ask of the 14-22 types, the stuff we can’t hear and don’t know about. He’ll learn hopefully, a nice prospect.

As for abusing people who are actually talented enough to play professionally, and I don’t mean constructive criticism, I mean all out abuse, I actually joined more for the cricket page originally. OMG..Test cricketers called crabs FFS. People even saying they could do better. I played some Grade cricket, and im not sure some people realise how good you have to be as you climb each rung of the ladder on the way up, in all sport.

Hysteria should be something we growl at our kids about as we teach them, not something adults should partake in. Internet or not.

The mods are there to manage the over-the-top abuse, and by-and-large manage it well (I've taken exception to the odd post of mine being deleted when it was neither abusive nor off topic, but if I felt it was too heavy-handed I wouldn't still be posting here). Some other team boards can be more precious, and their humour-detectors are not as sharp(!), so our mods on here are collectively better than most. (I can't say better than all, as there are some other club boards I never venture too, so can't compare those.)

If you are averse to abuse, I'd recommend avoiding the gameday thread, especially if we are not playing well, and ultimately lose!

As for your last sentence, and I don't absolve myself from this at times, I agree. For good or bad though, as much as a forum like this can be a cesspool at times, it does provide an outlet for frustrations and opinions - if posters express them within reasonable bounds. But given it is anonymous forum, some take liberties more than others, and the hysteria can go from zero to fever-pitch within a few posts. Sometimes that's interesting or amusing, sometimes it's worth just looking away!

 

[Unorth]

Bev is probably shattered that he couldn’t get Roarke, McComb and Scott into the same team this year.

 

[footscray1973]

Is this right?

If we lose we're out of finals...

If we win but Carlton wins we're out of finals...

If we win & Carlton loses but by both small margins we're out of finals...

Aka we have to win by a bit & Carlton lose by a bit to squeeze in?

Pretty much. Think both margins only need to be about 15 points difference considering how close the percentages are

And if at last one game is a draw (or both!), we are also cactus.

Unlike in 1976, when our draw with the top-of-the-ladder Blues in round 22 (after leading for most of the game) kept us in fifth place, half a game ahead of Melbourne who won their game, and had a better percentage.

AFL Tables - 1976 Season Scores

afltables.com

 

[4Seasons]

The mods are there to manage the over-the-top abuse, and by-and-large manage it well (I've taken exception to the odd post of mine being deleted when it was neither abusive nor off topic, but if I felt it was too heavy-handed I wouldn't still be posting here). Some other team boards can be more precious, and their humour-detectors are not as sharp(!), so our mods on here are collectively better than most. (I can't say better than all, as there are some other club boards I never venture too, so can't compare those.)

If you are averse to abuse, I'd recommend avoiding the gameday thread, especially if we are not playing well, and ultimately lose!

As for your last sentence, and I don't absolve myself from this at times, I agree. For good or bad though, as much as a forum like this can be a cesspool at times, it does provide an outlet for frustrations and opinions - if posters express them within reasonable bounds. But given it is anonymous forum, some take liberties more than others, and the hysteria can go from zero to fever-pitch within a few posts. Sometimes that's interesting or amusing, sometimes it's worth just looking away!

Cheers dude, I’m new to this and learning (the site not the internet), and even though I’m gobsmacked, I hope I don’t become a negative Nancy about negative Nancy’s lol.
I just like watching, sometimes we lose and I’m pissed for about a second, if we win I’m happy. I have been a member for a long time though. I’d carry on at the WO then just go home.

I do enjoy the trade story page though in the main page section, that’s gold and we have a dude on there too. People seriously think they are the List Managers, that’s really weird, it goes beyond agro. “I’m not doing that trade” lol, ok.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Yeah I really like Garcia as well. I’m guessing he’s not doing the small things that coaches ask of the 14-22 types, the stuff we can’t hear and don’t know about. He’ll learn hopefully, a nice prospect.

As for abusing people who are actually talented enough to play professionally, and I don’t mean constructive criticism, I mean all out abuse, I actually joined more for the cricket page originally. OMG..Test cricketers called crabs FFS. People even saying they could do better. I played some Grade cricket, and im not sure some people realise how good you have to be as you climb each rung of the ladder on the way up, in all sport.

Hysteria should be something we growl at our kids about as we teach them, not something adults should partake in. Internet or not.

A couple of years ago on this forum, after some quite abusive diatribes against I forget which player/s now, there was a bit of collective self-examination and some stated intent to remember that most of the players are still young and are likely to become aware of what’s being said about them on social media. Even Bevo stepped in on behalf of Gardner when the criticism escalated into personal abuse.

Not saying it’s at the same level with McComb - yet -

Is it creeping back?

 

[perro_loco]

Could still give him a chance to gain some experience and find his feet.
And I don’t really think he’s our major problem, he seems a scapegoat type,

Did we have a player everyone hated last year, even though we made the GF? Genuine question, I’m new and every section I read seems kind of angry about something or other.

Lots of angry people here. Take those negative comments with a grain of salt.

 

[perro_loco]

Is this right?

If we lose we're out of finals...

If we win but Carlton wins we're out of finals...

If we win & Carlton loses but by both small margins we're out of finals...

Aka we have to win by a bit & Carlton lose by a bit to squeeze in?

differential is 15 points in aggregate

 

[BulldogMuscle]

Oh this team selection is more cooked than I was back at 18 on Chapel street.

What in the absolute *?

 

[ScottyDogg]

When did VDM become one of Bevos boys?

Since he’s not very good and constantly gets games as soon as he overcomes each of his 6 Hammies per season.

 

[4Seasons]

A couple of years ago on this forum, after some quite abusive diatribes against I forget which player/s now, there was a bit of collective self-examination and some stated intent to remember that most of the players are still young and are likely to become aware of what’s being said about them on social media. Even Bevo stepped in on behalf of Gardner when the criticism escalated into personal abuse.

Not saying it’s at the same level with McComb - yet -

Is it creeping back?

Really good point, even 27 is young if you’re coping abuse, any age is I guess, and mental health seems to be an issue amongst men. I’m surprised we are allowed to have a Majak Daw story page considering, pretty tacky.

It’s funny that some of the abuses also claim players shouldn’t leave clubs and be loyal to fans, shouldn’t that be a two way road? Some fans maybe suck in all honesty, have issues with never making it, not sure players need to be loyal to that.

I like those ladies on The Year of the Dog, just support, be disappointed is fine .

If people are grand experts, even on a microscopic level, you can do coaching nowadays at a local level in Woman’s football, juniors etc and maybe climb your way up.
A genius will be spotted, or at least get to achieve at some level.

 

[ExRoyboy]

I really don’t get the all out hatred for McComb.
He’s only played 13? games, his VFL form at least suggests there is something there. Expecting him to be an instant star seems a bit much?

Is this a usual thing, pick a player and everyone goes all out hysterically attacking him?
Have other players been attacked before and now it’s his turn, or is this a first?

No one questions McCombs level of effort and he has done well to get to this point, but his level of skill is just not up to AFL standard in terms of his disposal, so he generally tends to turn the ball over and often at times when he is a crucial link in a possible scoring chain or in our defensive area where turnovers lead to opposition scores.

So the issue is not personal. We just struggle to understand why he has been selected so often yet other new players are forced to clean up their skills before being given constant opportunities in the Senior team such as West, Garcia, Bedendo, and many others. This is what people get upset about. It’s nothing personal with Robbie, he gives 110% which is all you can ask for, but he should not be getting selected because he turns the ball over far too much.

 

[BBBaz]

Could still give him a chance to gain some experience and find his feet.
And I don’t really think he’s our major problem, he seems a scapegoat type,

Did we have a player everyone hated last year, even though we made the GF? Genuine question, I’m new and every section I read seems kind of angry about something or other.

You catch on quick. There is a very vocal crew on here who only seem to be content if they are slamming someone. If you query the rabid negativity, you are criticised as being a 'cheerleader'- go figure! I think it has got worse over the years, certainly I spend a lot less time on Big Footy than I used to.

 

[4Seasons]

No one questions McCombs level of effort and he has done well to get to this point, but his level of skill is just not up to AFL standard in terms of his disposal, so he generally tends to turn the ball over and often at times when he is a crucial link in a possible scoring chain or in our defensive area where turnovers lead to opposition scores.

So the issue is not personal. We just struggle to understand why he has been selected so often yet other new players are forced to clean up their skills before being given constant opportunities in the Senior team such as West, Garcia, Bedendo, and many others. This is what people get upset about. It’s nothing personal with Robbie, he gives 110% which is all you can ask for, but he should not be getting selected because he turns the ball over far too much.

I didn’t say people question his level of effort, I say he’s only played 13? games and is probably doing things the coaches are asking that we don’t know about.
I watch Footscray and he keeps presenting for selection.
I love our midfield, but I’m not in agreement they are generational, they are very good though.

Our issues seem to be primarily defence, and midfield, Certainly not McComb all out enough for some of the stuff people write.

I think the defence issue is straight forward, everyone agrees, the mid issue is obviously up for debate, except the generational clap trap I guess.

 

[Proffessor]

Where is Scache in all of these discussions, if he is not a better footballer than Cordy, I give up, they are going nowhere playing Cordy, the first goal for GWS, was a perfect example of his problems, lack of speed/agility, not forgetting his two games with negative metres gained in the last 20 games. Have a look at the win/loss ratios when Cordy plays over the last 2 seasons, including winning the first 5 game without him.

That is a stand out rubbish call, showing serious confirmation bias.

The first GWS goal scored, resulted from a good kick to Riccardi's advantage, and a good snap despite solid pressure from Cordy. Sometimes a forward will score despite solid efforts from the defender, but don't let reality get in the way of slagging off on a favorite whipping boy. Cordy played pretty well on the weekend and there is no way he should be dropped based on that performance.

If you were looking for a contrast to the contest you highlighted, you might want to consider GWS's second goal, where Hogan simply ran away from a momentarily inattentive Ryan Gardner, who was left so far behind as to be out of camera shot when the mark occurred making it look like Sam Darcy was Hogan's direct opponent.

However, our defence actually performed pretty darn well overall against GWS, and besides Schache's recent strong form has been up forward kicking goals, so if he was to come back into the side it would be more likely at the expense of players like Martin or Bruce.

 

[4Seasons]

You catch on quick. There is a very vocal crew on here who only seem to be content if they are slamming someone. If you query the rabid negativity, you are criticised as being a 'cheerleader'- go figure! I think it has got worse over the years, certainly I spend a lot less time on Big Footy than I used to.

I asked when I first joined why our feedback is so small, I was told to “go join Facebook”.
The club needs to do something so we can all have rational discussion somewhere.

And the side isn’t even selected yet, but still repeat stuff about repeat players is somehow ok.

 

[dogwatch]

differential is 15 points in aggregate

Not in every instance.

As an example if we win 100-86 and Carlton lose 45-46 we still miss out by about 0.20%. We also miss out if we win 100-83 and Carlton lose 45-46 but it's incredibly close (0.02%).

15 points might do it. 18 points should do it. But even 20 points aggregate is not quite a mathematical certainty.

There are too many permutations to tabulate but as a general rule of thumb I reckon we should have enough percentage with a 3 goal win over Hawthorn. Then we will just need Carlton to lose by any margin.

 

[immortalmike]

Also had 7 more pre seasons than Robbie, and is somehow still on the list. This is Robbie's first crack at it, and we've seen worse in their first season before

McComb is three years older than Roarke and neither are going to improve much.

At least Roarke has proven he can be relied upon in finals and can stick a tackle.

 

[Libba39]

If Duryea comes and we don't manage to scrape into finals would it be his last game for the club?

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

If Duryea comes and we don't manage to scrape into finals would it be his last game for the club?

Duryea and O’Brien in for McElroy’s last game, hmmm. That’s a certainty, isn’t it?

 

[grassman75]

I would rather 'bag' Cordy

I will not hear of any bagging of Premiership CHF Zaine Cordy

 

[grassman75]

If the hawks kick a big score with their forward line that’s selected - I’ll be demanding answers from the club.

This stinks of a Callow or a Lynch out of nowhere kicking 5-6.

Majak Daw medallist market being framed as we speak

 

[grassman75]

Not in every instance.

As an example if we win 100-86 and Carlton lose 45-46 we still miss out by about 0.20%. We also miss out if we win 100-83 and Carlton lose 45-46 but it's incredibly close (0.02%).

15 points might do it. 18 points should do it. But even 20 points aggregate is not quite a mathematical certainty.

There are too many permutations to tabulate but as a general rule of thumb I reckon we should have enough percentage with a 3 goal win over Hawthorn. Then we will just need Carlton to lose by any margin.

This is the Bris v WC game last year to secure top 4 all over again. Never have I been so engaged in a game that a team was winning by so much

 

[AFDogs]

If Duryea comes and we don't manage to scrape into finals would it be his last game for the club?

Surely deserving of a 1 year deal. He's a jet when he's up and running.