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Preview R3: Changes vs. North Melbourne

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Xerri smashing ROB & giving their mids 1st use is the biggest risk for this game.

If our forwards get enough supply, we win.
Correct. My thoughts exactly.

I think Crouch is very important here as well; making sure he gets to the ball first. And the rest of the mids have to notch up their defensive stuff by 10% rather than the amok they have run the last two weeks.
 
I reckon Butts in for Keane. Butts to take the least mobile of Larkey or Darling
Darling is about the same height as Max, has just played tall his whole career. Pretty amazing Max could play on Darling or his more likely job on their small forward Hansen Jr.

Butts can take mobile forwards too, he's agile and quick off the mark, just not amazing with ball in hand - although interesting stat is his lowest ever disposal efficiency in a season is 82% - but more likely to take the biggest forward given he's comfortably our biggest defender.

Feel like Keane plays this week given sometimes it's been harder to get out of our team than in - I would make that change though - put everyone on notice that no spots are guaranteed. Complacency and getting ahead of ourselves will be our most dangerous opponent this year.
 
wondering if you have these stats slightly wrong re Saad as I remember that game clearly and thought Saad was really quiet so just checked.

Assuming you mean the Gather round game vs Blues in 2023 (round 5), Keays kicked 3 and kept Saad to 17 possessions. In the 6 games either side of his Keays game he got 23-29 possessions in each game and was in a rich vein of form. He averaged over 20 for the year.

Not disagreeing with your overall thesis by the way

No, the gamee I'm referring to is the below, I guessed the 4 goals. Links for game day and GBU threads, lots of talk about the defensive (even 'tagging' referred) job that Keays did on Saad.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...ey-understudies.1323921/page-64#post-75906810

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/search/16929734/?q=saad&t=post&c[thread]=1324071&o=date

1742952518847.png
 
No, the gamee I'm referring to is the below, I guessed the 4 goals. Links for game day and GBU threads, lots of talk about the defensive (even 'tagging' referred) job that Keays did on Saad.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...ey-understudies.1323921/page-64#post-75906810

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/search/16929734/?q=saad&t=post&c[thread]=1324071&o=date

View attachment 2261537
Ok fair enough, can’t remember that game.

But the game I provided info for is the complete opposite isn’t it? Keays again dominated Saad and kicked 3 whilst keeping him to an outlier quiet game.

I agree ANBis more our defensive forward now. He ran like 17km last weekend. Whatever role Keays is playing it’s working as per B&F last year and standout start to this one.
 

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No, the gamee I'm referring to is the below, I guessed the 4 goals. Links for game day and GBU threads, lots of talk about the defensive (even 'tagging' referred) job that Keays did on Saad.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...ey-understudies.1323921/page-64#post-75906810

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/search/16929734/?q=saad&t=post&c[thread]=1324071&o=date

View attachment 2261537
Remember this game and Keays got very dangerous on Saad whilst reducing impact of his possessions

At the time Saad was at peak of his powers and he just felt heat all night and didn’t influence with his possessions as they were rushed and he wasn’t able to take game on

No I50s as he wasn’t able to run and carry and link up

Keays has towelled him up there 3 goals and 4 direct goal assists , likely even more score involvements and not once has Saad gone I50 and likely many of his possessions are play ons from kick ins
 
Ok fair enough, can’t remember that game.

But the game I provided info for is the complete opposite isn’t it? Keays again dominated Saad and kicked 3 whilst keeping him to an outlier quiet game.

I agree ANBis more our defensive forward now. He ran like 17km last weekend. Whatever role Keays is playing it’s working as per B&F last year and standout start to this one.

Did he even play on him that game? The only fans I recall Keays being given the ‘job’ on Saad was the one I just posted.
 
Remember this game and Keays got very dangerous on Saad whilst reducing impact of his possessions

At the time Saad was at peak of his powers and he just felt heat all night and didn’t influence with his possessions as they were rushed and he wasn’t able to take game on

No I50s as he wasn’t able to run and carry and link up

Keays has towelled him up there 3 goals and 4 direct goal assists , likely even more score involvements and not once has Saad gone I50 and likely many of his possessions are play ons from kick ins

I distinctly recall the discussions. Keays had a cracker, but he didn’t impact Saad getting the pill and it’s a tenuous link to suggest he was responsible for Saad not getting the ball further up the ground. The kicking out is irrelevant as that’s a consistent theme every week. It was still equal 5th possessions earned for the season. That’s not being tagged.

Interesting his pressure acts was 25 for the year and 12 in that game. So he can only be near enough to influence 12 of saad’s 26 disposals. And that’s assuming all were pressuring Saad.
 
Did he even play on him that game? The only fans I recall Keays being given the ‘job’ on Saad was the one I just posted.

Nicks plays the right Keays again
Late last season, in an upset Adelaide win that shook Carlton's finals ambitions to the core, Crows coach Matthew Nicks elected to tag All-Australian half-back Adam Saad with tough midfielder Ben Keays. It proved a masterstroke. On Thursday night, he played the same tune again. Keays went to Saad and not only nullified the speedster's impact and run from the backline, but also surged forward to hurt the Blues on the scoreboard himself. Keays kicked three goals in that contest last year, and finished with three majors from 16 disposals and nine score involvements to begin Gather Round. Meanwhile, Saad had just 17 touches and couldn't work himself into the game.
 
No need of guessing why the forward structure and entry has improved dramatically it is our coach chief Davis.
Apart from a fit RT and development of Rash And Soligo etc etc our best import this year is this man.
It's a troubling observation. I don't know a lot about Davis.
Anybody: what's he done since coming to the Crows?
(I Googled, apologies: "Davis has a well-rounded coaching journey, having mentored the Lions’ forward line for the past two seasons and prior to that their defenders for a decade.", which explains a lot about our 2025 forwards' play.
However, if that's the case, what are we paying Burns for? To be trained/improved by Davis?)

Thilthorpe's (in fact, the team's) fitness and physical development is on Burgess.
Our acquisitions of Dawson/ Rankine/ Soligo/ Rachele/ ANB/ Cumming/ Peatling etc are on the recruitment team (5 of them have come to us as ready-made first-22 players --- the best two were developed elsewhere)
What has actually been Nicks' input to all of that?
Seriously, what does Nicks actually do? Supervise? Mediate? Teach them how to get along?
What has our side learned about footy, from Nicks?
Just wish one day replace nude nut one day.
OK, the bloke is balding and shaves his head. It's not a bad look, and I don't care what he looks like.
I care about what he does.
As much as I love them, 2 good wins do not undo FIVE years of 2:1 losing:winning pain.

His Selection policies have been unsettling/bewildering to say the least.
His Game Day plans and changes and grasp of the nuances of modern footy lack tactical nous (say what we like, but nobody has ever called him a footy-tactical genius)

To be fair, Nicks' relationship with players must hit home positively --- they do look like a happy group but, jeez, if the Club has had to bring in Davis/Burgess/Balme and the players above to prop up a failing Coach there's gotta be something majorly wrong with him as Head Coach.

I just can't go, "Oh, we've won our first 2 games of 2025 by 10 goals each. Everything is OK".
 

Nicks plays the right Keays again
Late last season, in an upset Adelaide win that shook Carlton's finals ambitions to the core, Crows coach Matthew Nicks elected to tag All-Australian half-back Adam Saad with tough midfielder Ben Keays. It proved a masterstroke. On Thursday night, he played the same tune again. Keays went to Saad and not only nullified the speedster's impact and run from the backline, but also surged forward to hurt the Blues on the scoreboard himself. Keays kicked three goals in that contest last year, and finished with three majors from 16 disposals and nine score involvements to begin Gather Round. Meanwhile, Saad had just 17 touches and couldn't work himself into the game.

Note the “again”, it’s an assumption based on the flawed belief from the 2022 game. Also, you realise Saad was subbed off injured, missed the following week and was subbed off again the week after. Note Keays drop in pressure acts from season treated 21 to 14, 2 less than Saad. I know you wanted it to be true, it’s just not. Keays has never focussed on curtailing Saad’s influence any more than Saad has Keays’.
 
I distinctly recall the discussions. Keays had a cracker, but he didn’t impact Saad getting the pill and it’s a tenuous link to suggest he was responsible for Saad not getting the ball further up the ground. The kicking out is irrelevant as that’s a consistent theme every week. It was still equal 5th possessions earned for the season. That’s not being tagged.

Interesting his pressure acts was 25 for the year and 12 in that game. So he can only be near enough to influence 12 of saad’s 26 disposals. And that’s assuming all were pressuring Saad.
Prob team role pressuring Saad that night , I acknowledge that

I remember his possessions were basically ineffective
 
Feels like a lot of people are thinking North will be a walk over. I'm not so sure about that.
North still conceded a lot of I50s (actually lost the count by 3) but Melbourne just can’t punish teams, has been their issue for a few years.

North are still average defensively and we are kicking a big score with 56 I50s like Melbourne had.

North are better, but these are games we should be comfortably winning. They also haven’t beaten us in Adelaide since 2003.
 

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There is no way I’m changing key defenders re ‘horses for courses’ this week

We’ve got a good system going that can improve further

Murray needs to stand guys like Larkey and Keane needs to stand guys like Darling

Picking Butts , we lose some offence

We also have Worrell if we need to make some different moves and I’m guessing he starts on Zuhaar

Max can also play on your Zuhaar types if required as can Hinge
 
There is no way I’m changing key defenders re ‘horses for courses’ this week

We’ve got a good system going that can improve further

Murray needs to stand guys like Larkey and Keane needs to stand guys like Darling

Picking Butts , we lose some offence

We also have Worrell if we need to make some different moves and I’m guessing he starts on Zuhaar

Max can also play on your Zuhaar types if required as can Hinge
As ridiculous to drop Keane for Butts as it would have been ridiculous to replace Milera with Nank after week one.

We are smoking hot, the talk of the footy world, in the best form for many many years whilst still incorporating 5 new players (inc newbie Curtin) into our team and game plan.

Why in the hell do we change such a winning team when we have tall defenders to cover Kangas. Keane on Darling I agree leaving stronger Murray on Larkey. And Worrell gets the shorter roaming Z.
 

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As Feenix pointed out in one of his podcasts our centre square work wasn’t great on the weekend. And ROB needs to significantly lift to get anywhere near Xerri who is probably the best ruckman in the league now.

Kangas have a mountain of midfield and running talent - potentially 5-6 elite youngsters inc FOS. It’s their still suspect backline and bottom handful of players on the team that’s their weakness. They ain’t wanting for top end talent going forward
 
He always plays on the big guys, plenty of times he out bodied Dixon.
True re Dixon a couple of times but I didn’t think it was the right match up vs Dons and he gave away free kicks leading to 2 of Drapers goals didn’t he?

Not sure why Murray didn’t get he match up. Ditto for Larkey this weekend
 
True re Dixon a couple of times but I didn’t think it was the right match up vs Dons and he gave away free kicks leading to 2 of Drapers goals didn’t he?

Not sure why Murray didn’t get he match up. Ditto for Larkey this weekend
IMG_6450.jpeg
 
There is no way I’m changing key defenders re ‘horses for courses’ this week

We’ve got a good system going that can improve further

Murray needs to stand guys like Larkey and Keane needs to stand guys like Darling

Picking Butts , we lose some offence

We also have Worrell if we need to make some different moves and I’m guessing he starts on Zuhaar

Max can also play on your Zuhaar types if required as can Hinge

Paul Curtis has kicked 6 so far and had a heap more chances. He will need a strong matchup.

Your forward line is pretty scary however. Your smalls just as much as your talls with archer out. It will be interesting to see if we rush Logue back. I hope we don’t.
 

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Preview R3: Changes vs. North Melbourne

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