Prediction Round 5, 2025: Changes vs Carlton

[Cuzz09]

Duggo should just plop himself in the hole in front of Curnow to at least help out

 

[Seadog]

So let me explain it to you.

Shannon Hurn was injured in 2023 and played 13 games.

Someone who played 13 games in an AFL club finished top 5.

That really doesn't need anymore explanation does it?

Kelly could have had the best season in AFL history and he would have beat the same players in the F+b,
You're argument is nonsensical.

 

[Smotie2]

Putting it out to the board, mate. Collating opinions on if it's one, a couple or several times one can keep changing the parameters and variables of their requirements before they admit that they're wrong.

Did you think I was directing it at you?

Not at all.
No goalposts moved in my opinions however I have no issue with being proven wrong.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

So let me explain it to you.

Shannon Hurn was injured in 2023 and played 13 games.

Someone who played 13 games in an AFL club finished top 5.

That really doesn't need anymore explanation does it?

He polled very well in the games he did play.

In fact he polled more BnF votes per game that year than any other player, bar one. The guy that won the BnF in a landslide.

Again, denigrating Hurn doesn’t help prove Kelly actually had a great year and didn’t “Bradbury” his way to the best and fairest, the coaches votes, the Brownlow votes, etc etc etc.

 

[Smotie2]

He polled very well in the games he did play.

In fact he polled more BnF votes per game that year than any other player, bar one. The guy that won the BnF in a landslide.

Again, denigrating Hurn doesn’t help prove Kelly actually had a great year and didn’t “Bradbury” his way to the best and fairest, the coaches votes, the Brownlow votes, etc etc etc.

Nobody has denigrated Hurn mate.

You're the only one taking the comments that way.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Nobody has denigrated Hurn mate.

You're the only one taking the comments that way.

“A 50 year old Hurn came 5th for fuark sake”.

Yeah totally respectful.

 

[Smotie2]

Kelly could have had the best season in AFL history and he would have beat the same players in the F+b,
You're argument is nonsensical.

You're missing the point.

Try to work it out.

 

[Smotie2]

“A 50 year old Hurn came 5th for fuark sake”.

Yeah totally respectful.

Hahaha

Geez mate. Are you sure you are an Aussie?

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Hahaha

Geez mate. Are you sure you are an Aussie?

Based on my name I’m Mexican

 

[Smotie2]

Based on my name I’m Mexican

How are your twin sons?
Did you name them Hosea and hoseb?

 

[jdisc]

Based on my name I’m Mexican

i knew it

 

[TY24]

Watching Fivey argue with himself is great fun

 

[FKASC]

Need old mate to post some more AI slop to get this thread back on track

INT. ROHAN TRAINING GROUNDS – EARLY MORNING


Camera pans across the misty fields. Horses whinny in the background. Warriors stretch. Sweat’s already dripping and the sun ain’t even properly up yet. This ain’t no picnic. This is a grind.


So check it out—Frodo’s nowhere to be seen. Guy’s probably sleeping off second breakfast or off chasing dreams again. Whatever. I figured I’d take a little stroll down to the training pits. See what’s what. Took some mental notes, scribbled a few things down on the back of a lembas wrapper.


CUT TO:


Wide shot—guys running. Like, a lot. Somebody decided endurance was the flavor of the week, and they’re not holding back just 'cause the heat's cooking everyone like second-rate rabbit stew.


ANGLE ON: BOROMIR


This dude’s on fire. Hitting targets like he’s got something to prove. Eyes cold, sword sharper. He’s not just training—he’s making a damn statement. Boromir 2021? You’d better watch your back.


PAN TO: GIMLI vs. LEGOLAS – RUCK CONTESTS


Now this is fun. Gimli’s going toe-to-toe with the elf prince. And here’s the kicker—he’s winning. Yeah. The dwarf’s got the inside track. Legolas is quick, sure. But Gimli? He’s got that “come at me, bro” energy turned up to eleven.


MITCHELL = ARAGORN (probably)


Then there’s Aragorn. Cool. Calm. Deadly. The man’s outclassing everyone in the midfield like he invented the game. Only one keeping up is Gandalf, and even he’s taking notes.


SHUEY = MERRY?


Merry’s quiet. Too quiet. Hanging off Aragorn like he’s waiting for instructions. That whole “Captain Merry” campaign? Not looking great. Maybe he doesn’t want it. Maybe he’s already checked out.


RIOLI = SAMWISE


Okay, so... Sam. Love the guy, but he clearly celebrated the holidays. Bit too much roast goose, if you catch my drift. Coaches spotted it too. Had a little “come-to-Elbereth” chat with him. Next thing you know, Sam’s doing laps. Not punishment—just... motivation. Meanwhile, Pippin’s over there grinning like it’s his lucky day.


SHEED = ÉOWYN


Here’s something cool—Éowyn’s switching it up. Kicking with her off foot all session long. That’s commitment. That’s dedication. You don’t see that kinda hustle from just anyone.


PETRIE = THÉODEN


Théoden? Man’s playing the wise old lion. Not throwing punches, but between drills, he’s in the ears of every young buck out there. Especially Merry. Mentorship mode: engaged.


VENABLES = FARAMIR


Faramir’s lowkey a freak. Not in the bad way—in the “this guy just curled three arrows from behind a tree and laughed about it” way. Mostly jogging laps, but then? Boom. Picture-perfect shots from the sideline. Barely missed one. Ice cold.


MCGOVERN = LEGOLAS (RECAST)


Now Legolas—dude’s splitting time. One minute he’s the wall in defense, the next he’s up front testing Mackenzie in full attack mode. Swingman vibes. You get the sense this guy could play anywhere. You give him a stick and a rock and he’d still dominate.


BAYOK & CRIPPS = ARWEN & ÉOMER


Arwen’s fast. Like “you blink, she’s gone” fast. Éomer’s trying to keep up and—spoiler alert—he’s not. Not even close. Grits his teeth, leans in, but Arwen’s just floating.


NELSON = LEGIT BACKGROUND CHARACTER


Then there’s this one dude—pale as parchment, built like he skipped arm day forever. Doesn’t even look like he belongs in this movie. But hey, he's here.


RANDOM GUY = "SUMA?"


And then this big guy rolls up beside me. I do a double-take. Thought it was Sauron for a second. Definitely wasn't, but you ever get that feeling like reality just glitched? Yeah, that.


MASTO = GANDALF


Session ends. Coaches pick someone to take the last kick. They go with Gandalf. No hesitation. Nails it. Crowd goes nuts. Like the credits should’ve rolled right then and there.


No sign of Frodo, Bilbo, or Gollum. Maybe off chasing ghosts. Maybe just late.


Anyway—got pics. I’ll upload ’em later if I don’t pass out first. You got questions? Fire away.

 

[flyinghi64]

Any chance we can get the preview thread up and running for this game for a change of pace?
Pleeaase

 

[Scotland]

Kelly is getting 19 touches a game and is still #1 for clearances and #2 for contested possessions. Statistically he's a bit off. To the eye he has been a lot worse than the numbers suggest.

The issue is that 3 of the 4 games he has been really poor. Poor games from Kelly stand out more than they do from Hunt or Long or whoever because the expected standard is higher, and his body language and movement off the ball make him look like he is just going through the motions. No one expects Hunt to get 25 touches a game because he's been in the AFL for a decade and averages 14. And Long is a child. That is the reality of what goes with being a highly paid senior player. Turning 31 and being out of contract doesn't help, and nor does 18 year old first gamers coming in and producing similar output.

If you go back in time Ben Cousins led the AFL in disposals in 2001 in a side that won 5 games and routinely lost by a million. 600 vs the next best Eagle on 380. Patty Cripps came top 5 in the Brownlow two years in a row in a Carlton side that won 8 games total. Nathan Jones at Melbourne, Dayne Zorko at Brisbane, Robert Harvey most of his career.. there are many of examples of players who will turn up week in week out and perform to a high level in teams that are hopeless. But not every player is built like that. Patrick Dangerfield has never played in a really poor side but I can't imagine him changing his game because his team is in the bottom 4. Kelly isn't that guy. Which is fine, but currently someone like Jack Graham who is far less talented and will never win a B&F or make an AA side offers more to a rebuilding side.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Kelly is getting 19 touches a game and is still #1 for clearances and #2 for contested possessions. Statistically he's a bit off. To the eye he has been a lot worse than the numbers suggest.

The issue is that 3 of the 4 games he has been really poor. Poor games from Kelly stand out more than they do from Hunt or Long or whoever because the expected standard is higher, and his body language and movement off the ball make him look like he is just going through the motions. No one expects Hunt to get 25 touches a game because he's been in the AFL for a decade and averages 14. And Long is a child. That is the reality of what goes with being a highly paid senior player. Turning 31 and being out of contract doesn't help, and nor does 18 year old first gamers coming in and producing similar output.

If you go back in time Ben Cousins led the AFL in disposals in 2001 in a side that won 5 games and routinely lost by a million. 600 vs the next best Eagle on 380. Patty Cripps came top 5 in the Brownlow two years in a row in a Carlton side that won 8 games total. Nathan Jones at Melbourne, Dayne Zorko at Brisbane, Robert Harvey most of his career.. there are many of examples of players who will turn up week in week out and perform to a high level in teams that are hopeless. But not every player is built like that. Patrick Dangerfield has never played in a really poor side but I can't imagine him changing his game because his team is in the bottom 4. Kelly isn't that guy. Which is fine, but currently someone like Jack Graham who is far less talented and will never win a B&F or make an AA side offers more to a rebuilding side.

McQualter has said Kelly knows what he has to go back and work on. I suspect it’s related to defensive effort.

 

[bzparkes]

INT. ROHAN TRAINING GROUNDS – EARLY MORNING


Camera pans across the misty fields. Horses whinny in the background. Warriors stretch. Sweat’s already dripping and the sun ain’t even properly up yet. This ain’t no picnic. This is a grind.


So check it out—Frodo’s nowhere to be seen. Guy’s probably sleeping off second breakfast or off chasing dreams again. Whatever. I figured I’d take a little stroll down to the training pits. See what’s what. Took some mental notes, scribbled a few things down on the back of a lembas wrapper.


CUT TO:


Wide shot—guys running. Like, a lot. Somebody decided endurance was the flavor of the week, and they’re not holding back just 'cause the heat's cooking everyone like second-rate rabbit stew.


ANGLE ON: BOROMIR


This dude’s on fire. Hitting targets like he’s got something to prove. Eyes cold, sword sharper. He’s not just training—he’s making a damn statement. Boromir 2021? You’d better watch your back.


PAN TO: GIMLI vs. LEGOLAS – RUCK CONTESTS


Now this is fun. Gimli’s going toe-to-toe with the elf prince. And here’s the kicker—he’s winning. Yeah. The dwarf’s got the inside track. Legolas is quick, sure. But Gimli? He’s got that “come at me, bro” energy turned up to eleven.


MITCHELL = ARAGORN (probably)


Then there’s Aragorn. Cool. Calm. Deadly. The man’s outclassing everyone in the midfield like he invented the game. Only one keeping up is Gandalf, and even he’s taking notes.


SHUEY = MERRY?


Merry’s quiet. Too quiet. Hanging off Aragorn like he’s waiting for instructions. That whole “Captain Merry” campaign? Not looking great. Maybe he doesn’t want it. Maybe he’s already checked out.


RIOLI = SAMWISE


Okay, so... Sam. Love the guy, but he clearly celebrated the holidays. Bit too much roast goose, if you catch my drift. Coaches spotted it too. Had a little “come-to-Elbereth” chat with him. Next thing you know, Sam’s doing laps. Not punishment—just... motivation. Meanwhile, Pippin’s over there grinning like it’s his lucky day.


SHEED = ÉOWYN


Here’s something cool—Éowyn’s switching it up. Kicking with her off foot all session long. That’s commitment. That’s dedication. You don’t see that kinda hustle from just anyone.


PETRIE = THÉODEN


Théoden? Man’s playing the wise old lion. Not throwing punches, but between drills, he’s in the ears of every young buck out there. Especially Merry. Mentorship mode: engaged.


VENABLES = FARAMIR


Faramir’s lowkey a freak. Not in the bad way—in the “this guy just curled three arrows from behind a tree and laughed about it” way. Mostly jogging laps, but then? Boom. Picture-perfect shots from the sideline. Barely missed one. Ice cold.


MCGOVERN = LEGOLAS (RECAST)


Now Legolas—dude’s splitting time. One minute he’s the wall in defense, the next he’s up front testing Mackenzie in full attack mode. Swingman vibes. You get the sense this guy could play anywhere. You give him a stick and a rock and he’d still dominate.


BAYOK & CRIPPS = ARWEN & ÉOMER


Arwen’s fast. Like “you blink, she’s gone” fast. Éomer’s trying to keep up and—spoiler alert—he’s not. Not even close. Grits his teeth, leans in, but Arwen’s just floating.


NELSON = LEGIT BACKGROUND CHARACTER


Then there’s this one dude—pale as parchment, built like he skipped arm day forever. Doesn’t even look like he belongs in this movie. But hey, he's here.


RANDOM GUY = "SUMA?"


And then this big guy rolls up beside me. I do a double-take. Thought it was Sauron for a second. Definitely wasn't, but you ever get that feeling like reality just glitched? Yeah, that.


MASTO = GANDALF


Session ends. Coaches pick someone to take the last kick. They go with Gandalf. No hesitation. Nails it. Crowd goes nuts. Like the credits should’ve rolled right then and there.


No sign of Frodo, Bilbo, or Gollum. Maybe off chasing ghosts. Maybe just late.


Anyway—got pics. I’ll upload ’em later if I don’t pass out first. You got questions? Fire away.

Surely Faramir's the whipping boy?

 

[amazingjoshy]

Tim Kelly: Former coach Adam Simpson backs star West Coast Eagle to respond to axing ‘the right way’

https://archive.is/PzEm9

In the past 14 seasons, the Eagles have played just one game without at least one of the midfield quartet of Kelly, Elliot Yeo, Luke Shuey and Andrew Gaff.
That match was in round four of 2022, where West Coast produced an upset 13-point victory over Collingwood on the road.

Victory guaranteed then

 

[bzparkes]

Kelly is getting 19 touches a game and is still #1 for clearances and #2 for contested possessions. Statistically he's a bit off. To the eye he has been a lot worse than the numbers suggest.

The issue is that 3 of the 4 games he has been really poor. Poor games from Kelly stand out more than they do from Hunt or Long or whoever because the expected standard is higher, and his body language and movement off the ball make him look like he is just going through the motions. No one expects Hunt to get 25 touches a game because he's been in the AFL for a decade and averages 14. And Long is a child. That is the reality of what goes with being a highly paid senior player. Turning 31 and being out of contract doesn't help, and nor does 18 year old first gamers coming in and producing similar output.

If you go back in time Ben Cousins led the AFL in disposals in 2001 in a side that won 5 games and routinely lost by a million. 600 vs the next best Eagle on 380. Patty Cripps came top 5 in the Brownlow two years in a row in a Carlton side that won 8 games total. Nathan Jones at Melbourne, Dayne Zorko at Brisbane, Robert Harvey most of his career.. there are many of examples of players who will turn up week in week out and perform to a high level in teams that are hopeless. But not every player is built like that. Patrick Dangerfield has never played in a really poor side but I can't imagine him changing his game because his team is in the bottom 4. Kelly isn't that guy. Which is fine, but currently someone like Jack Graham who is far less talented and will never win a B&F or make an AA side offers more to a rebuilding side.

Yeah, I'd say the main issues with Kelly were really highlighted against GWS.

Refusing to run, handing over his man to players behind him, not getting involved, etc.

He can be a sad sack all he wants but if he wants another contract, he's going to have to pull his finger out.

JD came back strong after a couple of WAFL games, hopefully this is the panacea Kelly needs.

Will definitely put the other senior players on notice though.

 

[Scotland]

McQualter has said Kelly knows what he has to go back and work on. I suspect it’s related to defensive effort.

I suspect similar. I wouldn't be surprised if he is back in a week or two and it's a bit of a wake up call.

 

[Scotland]

Yeah, I'd say the main issues with Kelly were really highlighted against GWS.

Refusing to run, handing over his man to players behind him, not getting involved, etc.

He can be a sad sack all he wants but if he wants another contract, he's going to have to pull his finger out.

JD came back strong after a couple of WAFL games, hopefully this is the panacea Kelly needs.

Will definitely put the other senior players on notice though.

I think people were always too harsh on JD. I'm confident if he was still at the club he would've come in when Waterman went out and done his job if called upon. Now that Adam Simpson is gone we can only pick 3 tall forwards at a time, so there is no room for Allen-Waterman-JWilliams +BWilliams/AReid in the ruck + Darling and one of them is turning 33. With Kelly we are already down on troops with Yeo injured and HReid not fit enough to be a full time mid. There's no structural reason Kelly can't play, he's just lost his spot on output.

 

[CaptainWorpedo]

Your boys would have to be a good chance to get their first win of 2025.

 

[jdisc]

Your boys would have to be a good chance to get their first win of 2025.

we will either win by 3 goals or loss by 70 points

 

[bzparkes]

I think people were always too harsh on JD. I'm confident if he was still at the club he would've come in when Waterman went out and done his job if called upon. Now that Adam Simpson is gone we can only pick 3 tall forwards at a time, so there is no room for Allen-Waterman-JWilliams +BWilliams/AReid in the ruck + Darling and one of them is turning 33. With Kelly we are already down on troops with Yeo injured and HReid not fit enough to be a full time mid. There's no structural reason Kelly can't play, he's just lost his spot on output.

Pretty much. Same thing with Edwards I imagine.

Not playing to instruction, despite the fact they're not the worst players out there.

We never had that with Simpson, he'd just back these players into find form in the AFL side and wouldn't even consider dropping them back to WAFL if they weren't performing.

That would easily disenfranchise young blokes coming through, knowing you have to wait for an underperforming senior to get injured to have a crack at their role, otherwise you're on the dead wing/flank rotisserie with other fringe players, never playing to your strengths.

 

[CaptainWorpedo]

we will either win by 3 goals or loss by 70 points

Allen to kick 4 goals if he is played forward and Harley to star in the midfield.