Mega Thread VICBias - Genuine Discussion Part 2

[beatnik]

That's more of a Collingwood Bias thing than a Vic one. Collingwood are mollycoddled and the Apple of the Eye of the AFL because they have a large fan base and unlike the other big clubs they're consistently good most years. So the AFL rewards them by scheduling most of their games at the biggest stadium in the country, the MCG, to milk from them big attendance crowd numbers as much as possible. The other big Melbourne clubs have struggled in the past 20 years so their crowd numbers aren't as impressive (not surprising that Carlton and Essendon bandwagon fans don't feel like coming to watch their team when they're at the bottom of the ladder) and therefore not as reliable as Collingwood's fans to fill the 'G. Other smaller Melbourne clubs on the other hand play just as many venues as the interstate sides.

Hard disagree

It’s true that there’s a hierarchy of VicBias in that the biggest clubs benefit more from the various forms of bias

However, you can’t argue that unless a VicBias benefit is evenly distributed across all Victorians clubs then it doesn’t count as VicBias

To non-Victorian teams, that’s an asinine argument

 

[beatnik]

If a bloke wants to live in Geelong he is going to try and get to Geelong.

Especially if he wants some nice ‘farm’ land as a tax benefit

 

[sr36]

Hard disagree

It’s true that there’s a hierarchy of VicBias in that the biggest clubs benefit more from the various forms of bias

However, you can’t argue that unless a VicBias benefit is evenly distributed across all Victorians clubs then it doesn’t count as VicBias

To non-Victorian teams, that’s an asinine argument

So the #non-Vic bias of the Northern academies encompasses WCE, Crows, Port and Freo?

It's a club competition - not a state versus state comp.

 

[kranky al]

That comes down to whether a good team is better off with a lot of neutral games or a lot of adv/disadv games. Which produces more wins and losses?

Personally, I think percentage is the most relevant to that. My view is that WCE are more advantaged at home than disadvantaged away due to how many games they play in Melbourne and how few games teams play in WA, so where you should see it is in percentage rather than necessarily in win/loss.

You’ve clearly never flown home on a red eye after a hard game of footy.

I can go on any vic clubs board the week after playing freo / eagles when we are good and see a bunch of comments expecting the guys to be a “bit flat after a hard game over west” expecting their team to not play as well or lose that week.

That’s one flight.


We do it every second week and the “flatness” accumulates over the season

 

[sr36]

You’ve clearly never flown home on a red eye after a hard game of footy.

I can go on any vic clubs board the week after playing freo / eagles when we are good and see a bunch of comments expecting the guys to be a “bit flat after a hard game over west” expecting their team to not play as well or lose that week.

That’s one flight.

We do it every second week and the “flatness” accumulates over the season

Definitely possible. I'm definitely open to that as a possibility. It's a theory that makes sense.

Show me something that points to a trend of deteriorating performances over the course of the year for WA teams? That's how you'd expect this accumulating "flatness" to represent, isn't it? Or do we see it some other way?

 

[kranky al]

Definitely possible. I'm definitely open to that as a possibility. It's a theory that makes sense.

Show me something that points to a trend of deteriorating performances over the course of the year for WA teams? That's how you'd expect this accumulating "flatness" to represent, isn't it? Or do we see it some other way?

Every year we are up we lose a couple of games at home to bottom of the 8 / bottom 8 team we should crush.

It’s always after a hard game against a top team interstate.

The whole match it looks like there’s 4 of them to 3 of us - the guys are just flat and not running.

 

[sr36]

Every year we are up we lose a couple of games at home to bottom of the 8 / bottom 8 team we should crush.

It’s always after a hard game against a top team interstate.

The whole match it looks like there’s 4 of them to 3 of us - the guys are just flat and not running.

OK - so WCE lose the occasional home game where they look flat - even in a good year. That sure is a smoking gun.

 

[kranky al]

OK - so WCE lose the occasional home game where they look flat - even in a good year. That sure is a smoking gun.

We train less than vic teams due to recovery from flights.


<<<
Graham admitted his former club Richmond had an extra training session, while West Coast lost one due to the club’s travel commitments.

Graham’s admission last Saturday prompted widespread criticism, with experts simplifying it to West Coast not training enough and failing to consider circumstances unique to WA-based clubs.

Speaking on Sports Breakfast, Graham was asked to clarify the differences between West Coast and Richmond’s travel demands.

“What would happen obviously at Richmond is you get an extra session in during the week. Not like a full main session, but just another opportunity where you’re in the club,” he said.

“You might be doing your vision. You might be sitting down with a coach, and you will go out onto the track and just maybe have a 30-minute skill session where you’re touching the footy.”

“But we’ve got the travel day where you’ve got to fly out two days prior because of the time difference and all that. That was probably the biggest shock to me coming over here, is realising how do we make this session up.”

Having both come from Richmond, Andrew McQualter and Graham have experienced travel at both WA and Victorian-based clubs.>>>

 

[kranky al]

OK - so WCE lose the occasional home game where they look flat - even in a good year. That sure is a smoking gun.

Yes - and so do vic teams returning from wa.

That’s why vic commentators call the wa games “the hardest road trip in footy”

Absolutely with no self awareness….

 

[JackOutback]

OK - so WCE lose the occasional home game where they look flat - even in a good year. That sure is a smoking gun.

You're not going to find a smoking gun because there are so many variables in elite sport and that's just the way you like it. If they lose, it was to 'a better team on the day', not the difficult-to-measure 'flatness' after six months of travel every second week. If they back up with a win, that further proves it's not flatness, even if they were playing consecutive home games they would have won both. Malthouse was right, interstate teams have to be a certain per cent better than their Victorian rivals to snag a flag, being equally as good isn't enough because the in-built disadvantages add up. But, of course, every time an interstate team is good enough to win the flag, Victorian fans use it to say their is no disadvantage.

 

[LoungeLizard]

You're not going to find a smoking gun because there are so many variables in elite sport and that's just the way you like it. If they lose, it was to 'a better team on the day', not the difficult-to-measure 'flatness' after six months of travel every second week. If they back up with a win, that further proves it's not flatness, even if they were playing consecutive home games they would have won both. Malthouse was right, interstate teams have to be a certain per cent better than their Victorian rivals to snag a flag, being equally as good isn't enough because the in-built disadvantages add up. But, of course, every time an interstate team is good enough to win the flag, Victorian fans use it to say their is no disadvantage.

If MM was right, then there will be stats to back this up won't there, show us these stats that back it up.

If you would like, I can go get stats that show West Coast have one of the best home win %.

Now if travel was hindering their performances, then the shorter prep after an away game would be when they would be affected, then tell us HTF they have that record?

I've shown you these stats before, you just read them, wait a while then bring the exact same crap up, so bring the proof or stfu.

 

[sr36]

You're not going to find a smoking gun because there are so many variables in elite sport and that's just the way you like it. If they lose, it was to 'a better team on the day', not the difficult-to-measure 'flatness' after six months of travel every second week. If they back up with a win, that further proves it's not flatness, even if they were playing consecutive home games they would have won both. Malthouse was right, interstate teams have to be a certain per cent better than their Victorian rivals to snag a flag, being equally as good isn't enough because the in-built disadvantages add up. But, of course, every time an interstate team is good enough to win the flag, Victorian fans use it to say their is no disadvantage.

If it's real, there's a smoking gun - just got to find it.

Basketball is played on identical dimension courts with the climate taken out of it with indoor climate controlled venues. Yet there's unequivocal data that home court advantage is a thing.

To me, the individual game travel theory as a disadvantage doesn't make sense as teams also travel to you. So it's net zero.

An accumulated travel disadvantage theory makes a heap of sense for a team like WCE or Freo or a regularity of travel for a team like GWS. And I think it's probably true.

But it needs more support for any change to occur rather than just Macka played for WCE and Richmond and he says it sucks. Hey let's kill off these Vic teams, even though it won't make a difference to WCEs travel disadvantage - because Macka says there's a disadvantage.

Does performance deteriorate over the course of a season for high travel teams? I mean as a general trend. That is what I'd be looking at. And that's the case I'd be making to the AFL if I was WCE, rather than Macka's vibe - if it is actually there.

 

[kranky al]

If MM was right, then there will be stats to back this up won't there, show us these stats that back it up.

If you would like, I can go get stats that show West Coast have one of the best home win %.

Now if travel was hindering their performances, then the shorter prep after an away game would be when they would be affected, then tell us HTF they have that record?

I've shown you these stats before, you just read them, wait a while then bring the exact same crap up, so bring the proof or stfu.

That’s nice - we do have a good home win percentage.

And if we played as many games at home as Collingwood do you would have an excellent point.

However we don’t. We play 10 away each Year.

 

[sr36]

That’s nice - we do have a good home win percentage.

And if we played as many games at home as Collingwood do you would have an excellent point.

However we don’t. We play 10 away each Year.

I think there's little doubt that travel and home ground advantage factors results in WCE having a higher win rate at home than Collingwood, and a lower win rate away than Collingwood.

Despite your certainty, the doubt is how it all nets out.

 

[doppleganger]

That’s nice - we do have a good home win percentage.

And if we played as many games at home as Collingwood do you would have an excellent point.

However we don’t. We play 10 away each Year.

The fact you consistently fail to acknowledge that the ground advantage is with respect to your opponent explains why all your points are flawed.

Home ground advantage isn't about whether you travel or not....or do you think there is no home ground advantage in SANFL or WAFL football?

In 2025 WC only play 6 away games at the preferred home ground of their opponent, where they actually experience a real away ground disadvantage.

 

[kranky al]

The fact you consistently fail to acknowledge that the ground advantage is with respect to your opponent explains why all your points are flawed.

Home ground advantage isn't about whether you travel or not....or do you think there is no home ground advantage in SANFL or WAFL football?

In 2025 WC only play 6 away games at the preferred home ground of their opponent, where they actually experience a real away ground disadvantage.

But we are bottom this year and get an easy draw.

In 2018 we played 8

With one against north in Tassie

 

[kranky al]

I think there's little doubt that travel and home ground advantage factors results in WCE having a higher win rate at home than Collingwood, and a lower win rate away than Collingwood.

Despite your certainty, the doubt is how it all nets out.

Except for that final game of the year of course…

 

[sr36]

Except for that final game of the year of course…

I don't think anyone disputes that's an advantage.

Pies win 56% of vic games versus 51% of interstate games. so we're better of in Vic. I'll let you do the maths to work out how often it'll gift us a flag - bearing in mind how often we're likely to make the GF in an 18 team comp.

 

[doppleganger]

But we are bottom this year and get an easy draw.

You get an advantageous draw almost every year.

10 games with a genuine home ground advantage against a travelling opponent who is unfamiliar with Optus.

You rarely if ever play 10 away games at the preferred home ground of your opponent where you experience a genuine away disadvantage.

In 2018 we played 8

In 2015 it was 7 genuine away disadvantage games, and 10 home advantage games for WC.

With one against north in Tassie

Yep, North travel outside of Vic and are playing away. Two teams are BOTH playing away from their home.

Your position then becomes travel isn't a disadvantage for North players

 

[kranky al]

You get an advantageous draw almost every year.

10 games with a genuine home ground advantage against a travelling opponent who is unfamiliar with Optus.

You rarely if ever play 10 away games at the preferred home ground of your opponent where you experience a genuine away disadvantage.

In 2015 it was 7 genuine away disadvantage games, and 10 home advantage games for WC.

Yep, North travel outside of Vic and are playing away. Two teams are BOTH playing away from their home.

Your position then becomes travel isn't a disadvantage for North players

I mean we lost that game against bottom ten team north in Tassie in 2018 ….. an hours flight from Melbourne.

I can tell you for an absolute fact we’d rather have played them at marvel…. Where in other arguments you say we are advantaged because we play at marvel often…but right now that argument doesn’t suit you so you say we are advantaged by playing them in a state where we have one of our worst win / loss ratios and they have one of our best.

It’s really hard to keep up with your ever changing assertions of where we are advantaged and where we aren’t……

And then we get to listen to you saying Collingwood get no advantage from playing marvel teams / geelong at the g when those teams have better win / loss records at marvel / Gmbha.

Statistically - as usual you are wrong on every count.

But you never let truth get in the way of your incoherent raving story do you?



It’s impressive how certain you are and how often you are wrong.

 

[doppleganger]

Statistically - as usual you are wrong on every count.

But you never let truth get in the way of your incoherent raving story do you?

It is obviously a reduced away disadvantage if the "home" team is traveling.

It is also obviously a reduced away disadvantage if you are playing your 4th or 5th game at a venue.

It is obvious that Melbourne based ground rationalisation has made it easier during H&A for non Melbourne teams.

It’s impressive how certain you are and how often you are wrong.

The stats are clear, non Melbourne teams dominate H&A top 2, and top 4.

You even claim to understand the importance of ground familiarity, but just choose to ignore it during H&A season.

And you then just ignore results and actual stats that show that it is Melbourne teams who have fared worst across almost 25 seasons of footy...instead preferring to run with your vibe that it must be harder for your eagles because they travel further.

 

[kranky al]

I don't think anyone disputes that's an advantage.

Pies win 56% of vic games versus 51% of interstate games. so we're better of in Vic. I'll let you do the maths to work out how often it'll gift us a flag - bearing in mind how often we're likely to make the GF in an 18 team comp.

Watching year after year as you lot barely travel eoy……. That ain’t right.

It is obviously a reduced away disadvantage if the "home" team is traveling.

It is also obviously a reduced away disadvantage if you are playing your 4th or 5th game at a venue.

It is obvious that Melbourne based ground rationalisation has made it easier during H&A for non Melbourne teams.

The stats are clear, non Melbourne teams dominate H&A top 2, and top 4.

You still haven’t provided those stats

Provide the stats you continually claim

Except you can’t - because you haven’t compiled them. You’ve made them up


mods can we get a reality check on this guy?

 

[JackOutback]

If MM was right, then there will be stats to back this up won't there, show us these stats that back it up.

If you would like, I can go get stats that show West Coast have one of the best home win %.

Now if travel was hindering their performances, then the shorter prep after an away game would be when they would be affected, then tell us HTF they have that record?

I've shown you these stats before, you just read them, wait a while then bring the exact same crap up, so bring the proof or stfu.

Maybe West Coast have a good winning percentage at home because travel hinders their opposition? Crazy idea, I know.

 

[SuperSub17]

Melbourne team finishes vs non-Melbourne team finishes, 2000-present:

Top 2: 15-35
Top 4: 40-60

Expected results if done randomly:
Top 2: 26.4-23.6
Top 4: 52.9-47.1

Hope that clears that up.

 

[Mr Meow]

Melbourne team finishes vs non-Melbourne team finishes, 2000-present:

Top 2: 15-35
Top 4: 40-60

Expected results if done randomly:
Top 2: 26.4-23.6
Top 4: 52.9-47.1

Hope that clears that up.

It doesn't, given its a VicBias thread and not a Melbourne bias thread.

Geelong have finished top-4 15 times and top-2 10 times.

Top-2: 25-25
Top-4: 55-45

QF-SF-PF advantage: MCG teams > non Vic teams > Geelong > Marvel teams

GF advantage: MCG teams > Geelong > Marvel teams > non Vic teams