Prediction How Will The Cats Fare in 2025?

[Vdubs]

I'd love to hear the Debbie downers read the 2nd paragraph and try to catastrophise the season like they've been doing the past few weeks.

Are we in that 3rd-9th group where not much separates teams? Absolutely.

Are we in a disastrous position where we might as well give up interest in the season? Absolutely not.

Not sure who you refer to here, but para 2 is obvious, IF you believe the remaining games will go according to ladder positions. Some of us clearly do not accept that straight off. I will continue with a OWAAT approach; suffice it to say, beating the Saints is imperative. We will be deserved favourites, but in no way is confidence high- it was for the Tigers and Ess games for obvious reasons- those 2 teams were ravaged by injuries. Somehow, we get to play both these 2 teams again en route to September.

 

[Mr Meow]

Not sure who you refer to here, but para 2 is obvious, IF you believe the remaining games will go according to ladder positions. Some of us clearly do not accept that straight off. I will continue with a OWAAT approach; suffice it to say, beating the Saints is imperative. We will be deserved favourites, but in no way is confidence high- it was for the Tigers and Ess games for obvious reasons- those 2 teams were ravaged by injuries. Somehow, we get to play both these 2 teams again en route to September.

If you continued with the OWAAT approach you would neither be in this thread or talking about any future games at all.

 

[Vdubs]

If you continued with the OWAAT approach you would neither be in this thread or talking about any future games at all.

I don't talk about future games, beyond the next one, and this thread is alluring because of my personal approach

 

[Mr Meow]

I don't talk about future games, beyond the next one, and this thread is alluring because of my personal approach

Well, I had last week marked down as a loss and this week coming up as a win. As far as finishing position, I see no reason to panic yet. When it comes to how we perform in finals? I have no idea what to expect really, but have obvious reservations.

 

[Mr Meow]

I don't talk about future games, beyond the next one, and this thread is alluring because of my personal approach

Job done, although your mid-match warning on what could happen if we lost was spooky.

Our current form isn't great but we have 5 weeks to find it, and need to be in the top 4 for that to matter.

I feel we have weaknesses the other top sides don't, so we will be relying on finding a hot streak in finals.

 

[Vdubs]

Job done, although your mid-match warning on what could happen if we lost was spooky.

Our current form isn't great but we have 5 weeks to find it, and need to be in the top 4 for that to matter.

I feel we have weaknesses the other top sides don't, so we will be relying on finding a hot streak in finals.

Spooky, not really, but reading comments here, we didn't sound great. Could not see any of the game today where we were, so relying on the thread is it, but looking at the scores, and reading the comments were certainly not in sync. Do you agree? We seemed better than the general posts would suggest.
Hope the replay is available

 

[Mr Meow]

Spooky, not really, but reading comments here, we didn't sound great. Could not see any of vthe game today where we were, so relying on the thread is it, but looking at the scores, and reading the comments were certainly not in sync. Do you agrere? We seemed better than the general posts would suggest.
Hope the replay is available

I admit I was frustrated by large parts of today's game - mostly what we did without the ball and in defence - but I accept that St Kilda have been a tough match up for every team lately. Then they always trouble us.

The frustration I believe was because we had two periods in the game where we looked on the verge of breaking it open into domination. We let them back in and to their credit they gave it a good crack. So we had to win the game a few times, so to speak.

Our attacking game mostly looked good and transitions had a number of highlights. But it became a bit scattergun, with poor errors and slack defending of turnovers.

Still, danger game averted. 12-6 is okay. Winning games and improving elements here and there will at least get us on the platform for a fresh charge in finals. But we aren't back in full flow yet.

 

[Vdubs]

I admit I was frustrated by large parts of today's game - mostly what we did without the ball and in defence - but I accept that St Kilda have been a tough match up for every team lately. Then they always trouble us.

The frustration I believe was because we had two periods in the game where we looked on the verge of breaking it open into domination. We let them back in and to their credit they gave it a good crack. So we had to win the game a few times, so to speak.

Our attacking game mostly looked good and transitions had a number of highlights. But it became a bit scattergun, with poor errors and slack defending of turnovers.

Still, danger game averted. 12-6 is okay. Winning games and improving elements here and there will at least get us on the platform for a fresh charge in finals. But we aren't back in full flow yet.

I have several Pies mates and they all are most worried about us in September. More faith in us than a lot of us supporters do. You are a lot more realistic than I am, happy to admit that, but many supporters look at us the way I do- incredulous that we are yet again a possible contender

 

[cats_09]

 

[Vdubs]

Did anyone watch The Furnace last night?
Hird and Bartel discussed a stat saying why we would need to improve a stat where we rated 18th in the comp.
I could not decipher what it was- did anyone know or recall what it was?
But they said no way could we win a flag without rectifying that; but CS woud be able to do it.

 

[cats_09]

 

[Mr Meow]

Defensive midfield is a confusing way to label it, because it makes you think of stoppages.

But as they describe in the video, it's basically opposition winning the ball at their half back/our half forward line, then slingshotting it for a score. We are the easiest side in the comp to break open that way.

I'm glad the real issues are being dissected and brought to light. Team defence between the arcs is a problem and our defensive 50 work (1v1 tracking/contesting) is also poor when opposition run those slingshots. We aren't helping ourselves with sloppy turnovers around our half forward line - that's the first link in the chain.

 

[PzBlinky]

Defensive midfield is a confusing way to label it, because it makes you think of stoppages.

But as they describe in the video, it's basically opposition winning the ball at their half back/our half forward line, then slingshotting it for a score. We are the easiest side in the comp to break open that way.

I'm glad the real issues are being dissected and brought to light. Team defence between the arcs is a problem and our defensive 50 work (1v1 tracking/contesting) is also poor when opposition run those slingshots. We aren't helping ourselves with sloppy turnovers around our half forward line - that's the first link in the chain.

One thing Hird pointed out that I hadn't quite put my finger on until he did was that teams aren't bombing up the line anymore, which is making our "fold back" much less effective. They're using the space we're giving them to move the ball up the ground with less pressure and get better looks I50. Prime example was the Marshall vs SDK mark in the last quarter(?) - at the time I was thinking SDK was just lazy but if the system is to push back, Marshall then has a lot of room (and time) to come up the field.

We can get away with it against teams like Saints because their forward line is rubbish (though they still scored way too easily) but against any of the top 8, we could be in trouble.

 

[sexyhunk]

i reckon we see the team going back to basic when august\sept hits, lets face it dangerfield best role is in the middle hitting packs hunting the ball, the whole playing forward thing is to preserve him for the real stuff. Start dangerfield in the middle with atkins, holmes and smith.

the forward line looks better structure to me with neale and cameron, martin as the third tall if he can play like he did on the weekend or henry if he ever figures it out and have stengle close managh off those guys.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

This is my predictor.
Would be an interesting finals series (winners in bold)
 adelaide vs gc AO
Coll vs Geelong mcg
Bris vs bulldogs G
 fremantle vs gws Optus

Week 2
 Collingwood vs Brisbane mcg
Gold Coast vs fremantle people first

Week 3
Geelong vs goldcoast MCG
adelaide vs collingwood AO

GF
Adelaide vs Geelong MCG

would be a dream run for us i admit.
bogey team gws are 7th/8th and get knocked out in week 1.
bogey team brisbane dont get past week 2 (if they miss the top 4 its very realistic).
gc at a venue where they've never played a final (as good as they are on talent they are inexperienced).
Then dont see adelaide till the GF where most of their group won't have played a final in Melbourne.

I think we could pull this off IF we win week 1 (Collingwood is our best chance for that) and if we avoid gws.

 

[dudusmaximus]

I think Bowes is going to vindicate our selection/persistence with a surprising performance in a Final (a bit like MOC in the 2022 Grand Final). He has a happy knack of kicking crunch goals.

He'll prove (once and for all) that he was no freebie.

 

[catempire]

This is my predictor.
Would be an interesting finals series (winners in bold)
 adelaide vs gc AO
Coll vs Geelong mcg
Bris vs bulldogs G
 fremantle vs gws Optus

Week 2
 Collingwood vs Brisbane mcg
Gold Coast vs fremantle people first

Week 3
Geelong vs goldcoast MCG
adelaide vs collingwood AO

GF
Adelaide vs Geelong MCG

would be a dream run for us i admit.
bogey team gws are 7th/8th and get knocked out in week 1.
bogey team brisbane dont get past week 2 (if they miss the top 4 its very realistic).
gc at a venue where they've never played a final (as good as they are on talent they are inexperienced).
Then dont see adelaide till the GF where most of their group won't have played a final in Melbourne.

I think we could pull this off IF we win week 1 (Collingwood is our best chance for that) and if we avoid gws.

When you are in a world of hoping to avoid or play certain teams you are not a flag threat.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

When you are in a world of hoping to avoid or play certain teams you are not a flag threat.

Yes but most of the top 8 could say that about one or two teams they struggle against this year. It is a weak year and someone has to win it so why can't it be us?

 

[Lana]

This is just fishing for a stat, you can't be strong everywhere at once, there are different phases in a football match. Your positioning trades advantages in someplaces for weaknesses in another. Without addressing that the ranking becomes meaningless. We're a quick counter team, our guys front run when we get the ball. Which means on a turnover we're exposed. We're the 2nd highest scoring team, we chose these trades as when we plays these fast rebound games they work in our favour.

 

[bulletproof]

Will we likely make top 4 if we drop one? Or need to win them all. Seems with so many teams close behind us one would be likely to win all 4 and pip us or are there too many match ups to make that likely?

 

[Mr Meow]

When you are in a world of hoping to avoid or play certain teams you are not a flag threat.

Nobody wants to get GWS so I guess the Giants have one hand on the cup.

 

[Del216647]

Will we likely make top 4 if we drop one? Or need to win them all. Seems with so many teams close behind us one would be likely to win all 4 and pip us or are there too many match ups to make that likely?

Our per percentage is key here. Whilst Hawks, Giants, Freo are equal on points, they're essentially one game behind us with our percentage.

We could drop Swans ( I don't think we will) those other teams around us if you look at the draw, they have some tough games and very likely to lose a game in the next month. That means our percentage keeps us above them.

I agree with PO, I have Crows on top and us third playing the Pies.

 

[catempire]

Yes but most of the top 8 could say that about one or two teams they struggle against this year. It is a weak year and someone has to win it so why can't it be us?

It’s not that it can’t be us. It is a matter of probability this far out and at this stage we are a low probability to win it. I’d say less than 10% (bookies odds have it about 15%).

 

[catempire]

This is just fishing for a stat, you can't be strong everywhere at once, there are different phases in a football match. Your positioning trades advantages in someplaces for weaknesses in another. Without addressing that the ranking becomes meaningless. We're a quick counter team, our guys front run when we get the ball. Which means on a turnover we're exposed. We're the 2nd highest scoring team, we chose these trades as when we plays these fast rebound games they work in our favour.

In general I agree with you about a single stat. This one though encapsulates almost everything about our vulnerability that has been exposed consistently.

 

[Mr Meow]

It’s not that it can’t be us. It is a matter of probability this far out and at this stage we are a low probability to win it. I’d say less than 10% (bookies odds have it about 15%).

Yes, but putting it another way, we're equal 3rd favourite. I also think it's unlikely (basic logic says it is) but I imagine the 3rd or 4th favourite at this stage has taken it home quite a few times.