Autopsy Hawks v Pies - AFL 2025 Rd 22 - Thu August 7th 7:30pm (M.C.G.)

[Chief]

5th v 1st

AFL 2025 PREMIERSHIP SEASON ROUND 22

HAWTHORN V COLLINGWOOD
THU AUGUST 7TH 7:30PM (M.C.G.)

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Teams:
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HAWTHORN

FB: Josh Battle (24), Tom Barrass (37), Blake Hardwick (15)
HB: Jarman Impey (4), James Sicily (6), Jack Scrimshaw (14)
C: Massimo D'Ambrosio (16), Conor Nash (11), Karl Amon (10)
HF: Jack Gunston (19), Calsher Dear (35), Nick Watson (34)
FF: Jack Ginnivan (33), Mitch Lewis (2), Dylan Moore (13)
FOL: Lloyd Meek (17), Jai Newcombe (3), James Worpel (5)
IC: Connor Macdonald (31), Josh Ward (25), Mabior Chol (18), Luke Breust (22), Changkuoth Jiath (9)
EMG: Jai Serong (29), Sam Butler (30), Cam Mackenzie (28)
IN: Luke Breust, Changkuoth Jiath
OUT: Harry Morrison, Will Day

COLLINGWOOD

FB: Brayden Maynard (4), Darcy Moore (30), Billy Frampton (17)
HB: Josh Daicos (7), Harry Perryman (12), Isaac Quaynor (3)
C: Steele Sidebottom (22), Nick Daicos (35), Jack Crisp (25)
HF: Will Hoskin-Elliott (32), Daniel McStay (11), Lachie Schultz (8)
FF: Jamie Elliott (5), Brody Mihocek (41), Patrick Lipinski (1)
FOL: Darcy Cameron (14), Scott Pendlebury (10), Ned Long (44)
IC: Jordan De Goey (2), Tom Mitchell (6), Dan Houston (9), Tim Membrey (28), Jeremy Howe (38)
EMG: Wil Parker (15), Edward Allan (16), Mason Cox (46)
IN: Billy Frampton, Tom Mitchell, Jeremy Howe
OUT: Charlie Dean, Bobby Hill, Oleg Markov

Watch this thread to be alerted when teams drop.

Final Teams released (Melb Time):
Thursday Match - Wednesday 6:20pm
Friday Match - Thursday 6:20pm
Saturday Match - Thursday 6:20pm
Sunday Match - Friday 5:00pm
Monday Match - Saturday 5:00pm
(NB: Sunday and Monday match Extended Squads are released Thursday 6:20)

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Discussion bounce down is now!

 

[JackFlash]

Pies should win by 3 goals

 

[PerthBoy86]

An elimination final for the Hawks. I think they'll just get up.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Cant see the Pies dropping this one.
With Cats playing Bombers, 2nd spot is at risk on %.
With GWS playing North and Dogs playing Demons, a loss to the Pies will see Hawks drop from the 8 and I doubt they'll finish another round in it in season '25.

Pies by 25

 

[SA HAWK]

Cant see the Pies dropping this one.
With Cats playing Bombers, 2nd spot is at risk on %.
With GWS playing North and Dogs playing Demons, a loss to the Pies will see Hawks drop from the 8 and I doubt they'll finish another round in it in season '25.

Pies by 25

If this week goes as expected we could get back in the week after if we beat Melbourne & Gold Coast beat GWS at home.

Problem is the week after that we have Brisbane away and GWS have St Kilda at home.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

If this week goes as expected we could get back in the week after if we beat Melbourne & Gold Coast beat GWS at home.

Problem is the week after that we have Brisbane away and GWS have St Kilda at home.

'Could' but I dont think you will as I think GWS get up in that game.

 

[SA HAWK]

'Could' but I dont think you will as I think GWS get up in that game.

I will be backing Gold Coast to win that at home.

I think we miss either way.

 

[voorhees]

banging thur nite clash.
two teams in need of a victory

 

[Cam Payne]

Lots and lots to play for and thank the falcon AFL for getting a good game on a big timeslot. Draw.

 

[davos44]

Love this game.

Critical for both sides, absolute must win. Dire ramifications for the loser.

Should get 85k to the G.

 

[timokane]

Roll up your sleeve this one.
Business end now.
Pies to weld the axe.
Line in the sand game.
Fork in the road this one.
Could mean the difference Pies make top 4 or hawks miss finals.
Huge ramifications this game.
Also will shape the 8.
This is a mini final.
Time to get serious now.
Under Fly to me this will define him as a coach in my mind.

 

[JPetro83]

Collingwood by 4 goals

 

[Dewyyyyy]

This should be a belter.

Hawks by 16

 

[cactuscall]

Hawthorn will want this one more.

Collingwood by a point.

 

[_Mike_]

A loss by Collingwood won’t be a disaster but it will make one hell of a dent on form leading into the finals

 

[The Casey Cat]

Hawks been good but with Day out and Newcombe apparently carrying injury is hard to see how they get it done.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Hawks in good form Pies in bad form.

Pies are not far off though.

• Need to tighten up team d, have allowed oppo to chip / mark through it, this didn't happen when 'in form'
• Need to NOT predict possession win at stoppage, Pies mids on several occassions against bris did this, this has killed us in the last 3 losses.
• Need to up the ante on pressure, cornerstone of our A game, this allows our phone box game to outside then transition. Haven't had that in the last 3 losses.
• Howe or Frampton or both allows Moore to be the run off interceptor, that is his game, not a lockdown defender. That's Frampton.

'Managing' has hurt the continuity, so, you've all heard me say this before. This team is system reliant, to a point, having your best 23 betters your system. Yes we're a system team, plug and play team, to a point.

The system has broken down but is only these tweaks away from form again. Lack of continuity (managing, flirting with form, call it what you will) has cost the system.

This isn't the team with the best list in it, or the 2nd or 3rd or 4th, same as the flag year. However this team IS less personnel reliant than any other team.

I'm confident better form will return, this Thursday, even if a loss, this team has belief they can beat any team in it, and they can.

Will they beat an in form Hawthorn? Hard to know, what is certain, IF they apply these little tweaks they undeniably can.

Hawks? Well they took a gamble with 4 tall forwards against the in form Crows on the Crows home deck, almost pulled it off. Will they gamble again against a bolstered Pies back 6, which will allow Moore to run off and intercept?

List announcements will tell, I wouldn't be going the same strategy.

Pies by 15.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Hawks in good form Pies in bad form.

Pies are not far off though.

• Need to tighten up team d, have allowed oppo to chip / mark through it, this didn't happen when 'in form'
• Need to NOT predict possession win at stoppage, Pies mids on several occassions against bris did this, this has killed us in the last 3 losses.
• Need to up the ante on pressure, cornerstone of our A game, this allows our phone box game to outside then transition. Haven't had that in the last 3 losses.
• Howe or Frampton or both allows Moore to be the run off interceptor, that is his game, not a lockdown defender. That's Frampton.

'Managing' has hurt the continuity, so, you've all heard me say this before. This team is system reliant, to a point, having your best 23 betters your system. Yes we're a system team, plug and play team, to a point.

The system has broken down but is only these tweaks away from form again. Lack of continuity (managing, flirting with form, call it what you will) has cost the system.

This isn't the team with the best list in it, or the 2nd or 3rd or 4th, same as the flag year. However this team IS less personnel reliant than any other team.

I'm confident better form will return, this Thursday, even if a loss, this team has belief they can beat any team in it, and they can.

Will they beat an in form Hawthorn? Hard to know, what is certain, IF they apply these little tweaks they undeniably can.

Hawks? Well they took a gamble with 4 tall forwards against the in form Crows on the Crows home deck, almost pulled it off. Will they gamble again against a bolstered Pies back 6, which will allow Moore to run off and intercept?

List announcements will tell, I wouldn't be going the same strategy.

Pies by 15.

Moore will not have the freedom if Hawks play even 3 talls.

Howe ~ Gunston

Then you’ve got Frampton and Moore for Lewis, Dear and Chol.

I presume Hawks go with 4 again aswell.

 

[Xtreme]

Collingwood will belt Hawthorn by double the margin they beat them the last time they played.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Moore will not have the freedom if Hawks play even 3 talls.

Howe ~ Gunston

Then you’ve got Frampton and Moore for Lewis, Dear and Chol.

I presume Hawks go with 4 again aswell.

Moore will have his 'freedom' to play run off intercept, IF Howe and or Frampton play.

Besides that, your post implies that hawks get easy transition and lead up footy i50, that may happen if we play like we did against Bris and let the hawks chip / mark through our team d.

That team d is not personnel reliant and I'm confident that we can get that back through pressure without ball.

I wouldn't be so sure Sam and the panel will be going with 4 KPF's, I certainly wouldn't unless the Pies go with the same back 6 from Saturday night, that's unlikely.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Moore will have his 'freedom' to play run off intercept, IF Howe and or Frampton play.

Besides that, your post implies that hawks get easy transition and lead up footy i50, that may happen if we play like we did against Bris and let the hawks chip / mark through our team d.

That team d is not personnel reliant and I'm confident that we can get that back through pressure without ball.

I wouldn't be so sure Sam and the panel will be going with 4 KPF's, I certainly wouldn't unless the Pies go with the same back 6 from Saturday night, that's unlikely.

Well it’s simple.

Dean was poor, Moore was poor. Both being the key defenders.

Hawthorn can exploit that with four talls, Frampton the likely replacement for Dean and Howe in. That’s still 3. Moore will need to play lockdown on a tall.

It’ll come down to the midfield battle, but also transition footy. Hawthorn been one of the best at defending and defending transition, their backline and forward line being super strong.

Itll be a midfield battle that can swing momentum either way, but it’ll be a tough contest.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Pies win more match ups across the ground and Finn Maginness isn't available to tag Naicos.

Day out Newcombe not 100%, Worpel busy looking for property in Geelong.. should be a very easy win for the pies

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Pies win more match ups across the ground and Finn Maginness isn't available to tag Naicos.

Day out Newcombe not 100%, Worpel busy looking for property in Geelong.. should be a very easy win for the pies

Newcombe not being 100% isn’t a hundred percent true. He’s had a slight niggle a week ago where he was managed and had a big break into the Adelaide game where he played pretty well despite a tag.

Hawthorn match up on Collingwood well, it’ll be an interesting game. Collingwood will worry the hawks with their system and match winners like De Goey, Daicos & Hill. It’s whether that can be matched by the match winners at Hawthorn like, Newcombe, Ginnivan, Watson etc.

Hawthorn worry Collingwoods defense with the talls and smalls available, and their defense matches Collingwoods forwards well. It’s the midfield battle that’ll be key, and if Collingwood can move the ball against one of the best defensive sides on defending transition.

I know you’re extremely pessimistic, but Hawthorn won a final and big patch of games last year without Day. Makes it difficult but not impossible.

Should be an interesting match.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Newcombe not being 100% isn’t a hundred percent true. He’s had a slight niggle a week ago

 

[HairyO]

banging thur nite clash.
two teams in need of a victory

Pies lose they can end up 5th and if we lose we likely end up 9th.

Plenty on the line.

We need to stop thinking we have the game won at 1/4 time.