Like it or lump it, odds are the simplest way to reflect sentiment or favouritism. They give a ballpark readout along with whatever so-called (and I emphasise "so-called) experts predict. FWIW most I've seen who have tipped Geelong have called it an incredibly close game, which is basically calling it a 50/50 anyway.
The ladder doesn't mean that much with AFL fixturing.
Discussion of Hawthorn's future prospects means little to me.
Averaged over the whole season, both sides have seemed about the same level of premiership threat. Day out gives Geelong a bit of an advantage despite Hawthorn's many strong performances without him.
40/60 sounds about right. Play it 10 times and Geelong probably win 6 times. That means either team winning won't be a shock. For true underdog status I'd reserve it for the 70/30s or above.
