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AFL 2025 Second Preliminary Final - Cats v Hawks Fri Sept 19th 7:40pm EST (MCG)

Who will win and by how much?

  • Cats by a goal or less

    Votes: 9 3.4%
  • Cats by 7 - 20

    Votes: 72 27.6%
  • Cats by a lot

    Votes: 54 20.7%
  • Hawks by a goal or less

    Votes: 36 13.8%
  • Hawks by 7 - 20

    Votes: 70 26.8%
  • Hawks by a lot

    Votes: 13 5.0%
  • Draw

    Votes: 7 2.7%

  • Total voters
    261
  • Poll closed .

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You get all the shit teams in the back half, in your substandard ground, obviously it's easy to score. But honestly, props to Scott for his asymmetric tactics, turning spuds into proper neutralisers.
Where's Hawthorn, by the way? Know how to get there?

Hint: it's not Royal Parade / Mulgrave / Yarra Park / Docklands / Launceston / Dingley Village Shopping Strip or whatever the frieck your brand claims to represent.
 
Others tried. They just haven't built a team around having the fortune of a team whose only glaring weakness is missing a top 5 player in the comp. Props to Scott for finding a way to win, but it's ugly AF.

Ah yes 'ugly af'. Second greatest score Hawks have conceded all year. Cry more clown.
 
There was a passage of play where Chol was caught HTB dead to rights not paid. Immediately resulted in a hawks goal.

Lol. It really isn't.
It got us to top 4 with a one man midfield.

Put a fit Day in and Merrett/Tracc and it's going to be good enough.

Outside of Cameron and Gunston none of the other top 4 teams have a strong KPF presence.

Morris is the best of the bunch (and will get better) but he has only scored a handful or so more goals than Chol/Neale.
 
There was one thing which confused me (but it didn't seem to confuse the Hawks coaching staff) which was this belief so many people had that the match was going to be "chaos v control". I don't think a single team that has tried chaos against us this year has won (Collingwood came close). And the idea that we are a "control" side is way out of date (think 2021).

Also, I don't know if Collingwood fans recall how in the 2011 GF they had the game in hand until Podsiadly went off injured. We improvised in a way that the Pies hadn't planned for, because we hadn't. I suspect, ironically, that the Stewart injury may well make us no less difficult to beat. Especially for the Lions, who no doubt are going to try to approach us very differently if they make it.
It’s a little different when there is an unexpected change up during the game, than going into it knowing that player won’t be there.

I doubt it will be an issue for the opposition. More an issue for Geelong.
 
It was ugly AF. Seeing Close miss some howlers. Cats should’ve slain them by 50 points, such was the dominance after qtr time.

Definitely squandered chances in the last half to win by more. At the same time Hawthorn could have converted and put more on the board in first quarter when on top.
 
Others tried. They just haven't built a team around having the fortune of a team whose only glaring weakness is missing a top 5 player in the comp. Props to Scott for finding a way to win, but it's ugly AF.
That's hilarious.

Geelong has played in open and attacking games all year, scoring 100+ points on the regular. Our ball movement favours speed and dare, while our defence really isn't dour at all.

Nice try though.
 

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Unless he is beasting in the midfield all season you can’t say he is a superior athlete. They’ve kept in him cotton wool for months.
30 goals and 30 goal assists is a damn good effort over the whole year regardless of anything else. He's been great wherever he's played (several BOG performances from a forward pocket). Last night he was just hitting more contests.
 
You play the shit teams in the back half - it's a whole different equation, especially with respect to point scoring. They put the cue in the rack, and allow the ridiculous Jezzathon wankfest to happen.
Don't know why it rustles you to hear it. At least the flogs on here like the guy who just posted a clip have the self awareness to own the breeze you were kicking with this season.

You keep bringing this up. Any other time it’s a ‘I just worry that they haven’t been tested enough’-a-thon on every panel show in the land.

We’ve beaten each team that made the prelims. One of them twice. Three of those four games were on the opponents’ home ground. We beat the minor premiers interstate. We slaughtered Fremantle. We beat the Suns. The only side we didn’t beat was GWS and we had a chance to beat them in the final minute of the game - and we played them twice so spare me the bleeding heart bullshit. The only other team in the 8 that has beaten us this year (Brisbane) we played twice as well so be thankful our double ups weren’t against other sides or our record might have been even better.

For good measure we beat the team next closest to making the 8. And the form team outside it in the back half of the season that finished 10th.

Any other avenues you want to go down?
 
To be fair this is just how Atkins plays, it's not really a hard tag like Mullin does. Moreso being shoulder to shoulder with a guy and still trying to win the footy, but ready to apply immense pressure when he fails that bit.

I thought Atkins game, along with finals series and whole season, was sensational.

Not as much holding on as most taggers do, but not sure I'd call it shoulder to shoulder either. From what I could see at the ground, just tried really hard to get between Jai and the ball, and made it very hard for Jai to get by him to have clear access to the ball, so a bit of mutual wrestling was going on, and that usually gets let go.

I'd guess that strategy (of getting ball side of your tagged opponent) makes it a lot easier to get the ball yourself, and he certainly did that quite a lot. Other taggers who have their opponent in an almost perpetual tackle from behind tend to get very few possessions AND give away more free kicks. Did not recall Jai getting a single holding free (and given the way Atkins was marking him, that was probably fair enough). Looks like Jai got 2 frees for the night - do not recall what they were for - which was 1 less than Atkins himself picked up! Definitely one of the best shutdown players in the competition, given his ability to contribute while shutting down.

Jai did get 22 possessions, which isn't a complete failure, but with only 1 inside 50, 1 centre clearance and 2 score involvements, it is fair to say Atkins completely nullified his influence. Atkins himself had 4 centre clearances (3rd most on the ground), and 6 score involvements. I don't think it is an exaggeration to say that matchup won you the game, as the other areas you beat us in largely flowed from your centre clearance dominance.
 
Would Hawthorn be playing in the Grand Final next week if Smith choose Hawthorn over Geelong? Huge boost to Geelong's midfield this year with his inclusion.
Doubt it. With Day and Smith, different equation though. The two best - Lions and Cats - are going to play off in the big one, as they should...
 
It was good to see Stengle turning it on with some moments of genuine class and finishing with the equal most goals on the night. Hopefully it's Close's turn next week: I still love what he brings, but missing the days when he was automatic with any gettable shot inside about 45. Two chances to put the first nail in the coffin at the end of the third and start of the fourth went begging, which kept Hawthorn hanging around for longer than we'd have liked.
 
It takes a village 😉 View attachment 2431499

Like I said, if you told me mid last year that we'd get 5 finals (including 2 knock MCG finals before 98,000 plus) I would take it every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Now, like the Crows, the challenge is to come again and improve by at least 20%. There's a good reason that Hawks posters have been far more active in the drafting and trades board than the match day threads in recent weeks…
Post more, talk more. Same result. No grand final for u.
 

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You keep bringing this up. Any other time it’s a ‘I just worry that they haven’t been tested enough’-a-thon on every panel show in the land.

We’ve beaten each team that made the prelims. One of them twice. Three of those four games were on the opponents’ home ground. We beat the minor premiers interstate. We slaughtered Fremantle. We beat the Suns. The only side we didn’t beat was GWS and we had a chance to beat them in the final minute of the game - and we played them twice so spare me the bleeding heart bullshit. The only other team in the 8 that has beaten us this year (Brisbane) we played twice as well so be thankful our double ups weren’t against other sides or our record might have been even better.

For good measure we beat the team next closest to making the 8. And the form team outside it in the back half of the season that finished 10th.

Any other avenues you want to go down?

I think there is certainly an argument to be had that your sequence from round 9 to round 25 was unusual. There are not many seasons where a team could go for such an extended stretch with only one win over eventual top 8 teams, and still make top 4. Having the 6th easiest draw certainly helped that happen. Not Geelong's fault, and some aspects of how hard your draw is comes down to luck with ebbs and flows of teams from season to season (Port falling a long well was a big reason Geelong's eventual draw was so easy), but it is what it is.

1 double up against top 4, 1 more double up against a team that finished in top 8. You lost all 4 of those H&A double ups. You then had 4 double ups against teams outside the top 8 , and went 7-1 in those, with some massive percentage boosts. Those bottom 10 team double ups is what then allowed you to go the final 15 rounds of the season with one top 8 win and still make the top 4.

Top 4 is a massive prize, and I think it is a pity more effort isn't put into draw equalisation - at least over a multi-season window, if it can't be achieved properly within-season, which is certainly a challenge with an 18 team competition (and again, not Geelong's fault Port fell like a stone).

I was certainly one who was hoping the 'not tested enough' would come home to roost, but clearly Geelong have hit finals in very good form, so that didn't happen. Two teams demolished (one of which had beaten Geelong twice, both at your home ground and theirs), and on to the Grand Final. Geelong did seem a little flustered with the pressure we brought in the first quarter, but bounced back quickly, and then jumped away from us with relative ease. We have some obvious structural issues that Geelong were able to exploit, but Brisbane are a more complete outfit, and they handled Brisbane easily too.

I know this sounds like a massive whinge after a loss, but all credit to Geelong, they outplayed both their finals' opponents easily. More a rant against the poor attempts the AFL makes at getting fairer fixturing from season to season. One thing I think they can look at is trying to even things out over a multi-season window, using the eventual finishing places of the previous season as an input to future fixturing (i.e how tough a draw actually was, versus how easy it looked at the start of the season), and perhaps using fairness as the key metric, rather than an aside after all the commercial considerations are catered for.
 
Geee Hawk and co I would have thought a good night sleep would have put an end to this garbage.
Sorry to say but it’s kind of pathetic
 
I think there is certainly an argument to be had that your sequence from round 9 to round 25 was unusual. There are not many seasons where a team could go for such an extended stretch with only one win over eventual top 8 teams, and still make top 4. Having the 6th easiest draw certainly helped that happen. Not Geelong's fault, and some aspects of how hard your draw is comes down to luck with ebbs and flows of teams from season to season (Port falling a long well was a big reason Geelong's eventual draw was so easy), but it is what it is.

1 double up against top 4, 1 more double up against a team that finished in top 8. You lost all 4 of those H&A double ups. You then had 4 double ups against teams outside the top 8 , and went 7-1 in those, with some massive percentage boosts. Those bottom 10 team double ups is what then allowed you to go the final 15 rounds of the season with one top 8 win and still make the top 4.

Top 4 is a massive prize, and I think it is a pity more effort isn't put into draw equalisation - at least over a multi-season window, if it can't be achieved properly within-season, which is certainly a challenge with an 18 team competition (and again, not Geelong's fault Port fell like a stone).

I was certainly one who was hoping the 'not tested enough' would come home to roost, but clearly Geelong have hit finals in very good form, so that didn't happen. Two teams demolished (one of which had beaten Geelong twice, both at your home ground and theirs), and on to the Grand Final. Geelong did seem a little flustered with the pressure we brought in the first quarter, but bounced back quickly, and then jumped away from us with relative ease. We have some obvious structural issues that Geelong were able to exploit, but Brisbane are a more complete outfit, and they handled Brisbane easily too.

I know this sounds like a massive whinge after a loss, but all credit to Geelong, they outplayed both their finals' opponents easily. More a rant against the poor attempts the AFL makes at getting fairer fixturing from season to season. One thing I think they can look at is trying to even things out over a multi-season window, using the eventual finishing places of the previous season as an input to future fixturing (i.e how tough a draw actually was, versus how easy it looked at the start of the season), and perhaps using fairness as the key metric, rather than an aside after all the commercial considerations are catered for.

There is no doubt that things like the Swans and Port dropping off made it retrospectively ‘easier.’ Can’t be argued. But no one can account for that sort of thing. The swans being as bad as they were especially was a surprise. And even then, when we got them, they were in a run of 7-2.
You could easily turn around and say that we were lucky on paper to get the Saints twice out of the non-finalists from last year who are theoretically shite but right at the moment they seem to match up on us really well and sure enough they were one of the sides that knocked us off.

If we win the comp we will have beaten every team in it bar the Giants who as I said we had every chance to beat in one match (we really should have) and oddly enough Carlton who like St Kilda seem to have an edge on us for some reason at the moment. We’ve had a better win percentage away from KP than we have had at it - and that gap will grow further if we win next week. There’s not a lot else we can do.
 
There is no doubt that things like the Swans and Port dropping off made it retrospectively ‘easier.’ Can’t be argued. But no one can account for that sort of thing. The swans being as bad as they were especially was a surprise. And even then, when we got them, they were in a run of 7-2.
You could easily turn around and say that we were lucky on paper to get the Saints twice out of the non-finalists from last year who are theoretically shite but right at the moment they seem to match up on us really well and sure enough they were one of the sides that knocked us off.

If we win the comp we will have beaten every team in it bar the Giants who as I said we had every chance to beat in one match (we really should have) and oddly enough Carlton who like St Kilda seem to have an edge on us for some reason at the moment. We’ve had a better win percentage away from KP than we have had at it - and that gap will grow further if we win next week. There’s not a lot else we can do.

Yup, not really arguing that cats don't deserve to be sitting in the GF now, as their finals series so far speaks for itself. I also agree it is hard to be completely fair when you have 18 teams and 24 rounds, but I do think we can do better than we do now, especially if we want to consider a larger window than a season over which things could be evened out.

Anyway, it will be an interesting GF now. Arguably the most talented team vs the most professional. Cats to go in strong favourites I guess , given the result the last time they met.
 

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AFL 2025 Second Preliminary Final - Cats v Hawks Fri Sept 19th 7:40pm EST (MCG)

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