What is the ranking of the 10 Victorian clubs for supporter numbers, 1 through 10?

[HairyO]

Membership number mean bugger all these days — and have met nothing since the AFL allowed zero game memberships, AFLW double ups and $10 sign on memberships to be included.

You’ve seen some clubs (for example Geelong, North and the Saints) gain 15,000 to 20,000 members in three years whilst Hawthorn, Essendon and Richmond have barely moved. The best indication is attendances and social media — and Essendon (and Carlton) are still giants.

Pretty sure when they calculate these memberships it is 3 game minimum, so it excludes the pet memberships and other non-game memberships.

Social media means nothing. Sydney doesnt get an extra $5m because Roy Morgan claims that 1 in 5 people in Sydney "support" the Swans.

 

[canny30]

Find it interesting Hawthorn hasn't become one of the big 3 considering it's success. Also why has St Kilda still been ahead of Bulldogs? Cos they played more grand finals? Geography?

Hawthorn were a tiny club prior to their modern day success that started in 1961.

 

[Hawkk]

Pretty sure when they calculate these memberships it is 3 game minimum, so it excludes the pet memberships and other non-game memberships.

Social media means nothing. Sydney doesnt get an extra $5m because Roy Morgan claims that 1 in 5 people in Sydney "support" the Swans.

That’s not true - they count everything and have done since Covid. That’s why you see clubs like the Suns and Giants go from sub 20,000 to 35,000 to 40,000 and Geelong and Carlton go from 65,000 to 100,000 and 92,000.

That’s not to say that both clubs weren’t huge before the surge in memberships. Carlton and Geelong always had fewer club members (vs Rich, Coll, Haw and Ess) proportional to their very, very big support bases.

But you can’t tell me that North Melbourne, St Kilda and the W Bulldogs (who now have 55,000 to 65,000 members) have anywhere near supporters (or draw the crowds) that Geelong, Carlton and even Essendon did 10-15 years ago when they had a similar number of members.

Hawthorn were a tiny club prior to their modern day success that started in 1961.

This checks out. If you did this list in 1949 for example:




The big clubs were Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong and Richmond, with Essendon and the Dogs (surprisingly) not far behind.

A few big things happened post War.

Carlton were replaced by Collingwood as the biggest club in the VFL (after being the biggest from 1877 to sometime in the 50s), Hawthorn and Essendon (Coleman) got a lot bigger, the Dees rose and fell (they switched places with Hawthorn — not surprising as they basically have the same fan base and catchment) and the Saints took over the Swans fan base.

Back then home and away membership really mattered as it got you into all games home or away (this was still a thing into the 1990s)

Look at 1909



And 1925



Apart from that, the same big clubs are the same today (Carl, Rich, Coll, Geel) as they were in 1909 and probably 1897.

I wrote about it earlier this year…

Now this is very, very interesting.

From an ABC article a few years back - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-23/what-membership-means-to-afl-clubs/102513546

This quote is very interesting:



From 1908 right up until 1967 a club member had just as much entitlement for home and away games - which is why I guess generations later the Victorian clubs have such a strong attendance culture for home and away games.

Below shows how club membership has changed over 115 years:

1909

View attachment 2284599

1925


View attachment 2284598

1949

View attachment 2284597

1984

View attachment 2284596

2003

View attachment 2284595

2022

View attachment 2284594

If you look at the Victorian clubs only, there were heaps of changes up until the late 1940s, but from 1984 the status quo is unchanged, with the most popular clubs changing little from 1 to 10 (in fact, the only change was Richmond leapfrogging Geelong from 1984 to 2003 and Essendon and Hawthorn from 2003 to 2022).

Before the Second World War, Collingwood jumped from being a mid-tier club to the top two and eventually went past Carlton to become the biggest VFL club sometime after the 1950s. Footscray and South Melbourne went from big to small clubs (Footscray was bigger than Collingwood when they joined the VFL), while Geelong also went from being a top-three club (pre-1950) to mid-tier after the 1940s. And Hawthorn had an enormous jump - from last in 1949 (when they should have been kicked out of the league) to 5th, where they haven't moved for 40-odd years.

I still can't believe that South Melbourne—which topped the VFL attendances in the mid-1930s—had more members in 1909 than it had in 1984! It's also somewhat surprising that Geelong had more members than Essendon and Richmond right through from 1909, 1925 and 1949.

 

[canny30]

That’s not true - they count everything and have done since Covid. That’s why you see clubs like the Suns and Giants go from sub 20,000 to 35,000 to 40,000 and Geelong and Carlton go from 65,000 to 100,000 and 92,000.

That’s not to say that both clubs weren’t huge before the surge in memberships. Carlton and Geelong always had fewer club members (vs Rich, Coll, Haw and Ess) proportional to their very, very big support bases.

But you can’t tell me that North Melbourne, St Kilda and the W Bulldogs (who now have 55,000 to 65,000 members) have anywhere near supporters (or draw the crowds) that Geelong, Carlton and even Essendon did 10-15 years ago when they had a similar number of members.



This checks out. If you did this list in 1949 for example:

View attachment 2421987


The big clubs were Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong and Richmond, with Essendon and the Dogs (surprisingly) not far behind.

A few big things happened post War.

Carlton were replaced by Collingwood as the biggest club in the VFL (after being the biggest from 1877 to sometime in the 50s), Hawthorn and Essendon (Coleman) got a lot bigger, the Dees rose and fell (they switched places with Hawthorn — not surprising as they basically have the same fan base and catchment) and the Saints took over the Swans fan base.

Back then home and away membership really mattered as it got you into all games home or away (this was still a thing into the 1990s)

Look at 1909

View attachment 2421990

And 1925

View attachment 2421995

Apart from that, the same big clubs are the same today (Carl, Rich, Coll, Geel) as they were in 1909 and probably 1897.

I wrote about it earlier this year…

Yeah I was obsessed with learning about footy history when I was a kid. I read piles and piles of books.

I've probably forgotten more than I remember but I still know a little bit.

The history of the game is fascinating.

I do remember I wasnt a fan of us not recognising pre-1897 VFA premierships.

If you look at the yearbooks and letter headers clubs would produce right up until about the 1940s a lot of them would list their VFA premierships.

For whatever reason that stopped occurring post war.

The second thing that never made sense to me was the way Tom Wills is almost completely ignored. The guy should be massively celebrated.

I've completely gone off on a tangent there haha

 

[The_Eagles]

I think when people use Instagram as metrics it’s a bit inaccurate, families in Melbourne will follow the same team as their brother or mum who support someone different. So they’re following 2 teams and inflating

 

[What else we can do]

1965 to current, AFL members are the exact same order
1.Collingwood
2.Carlton
3.Essendon
4.Richmond
5.Hawthorn
6.Geelong
7.St Kilda
8.Melbourne
9.Western Bulldogs
10.North Melbourne

20 years time my opinion
1.Collingwood
2.Hawthorn
3.Geelong
4.Richmond
5.Essendon( if they dont win a GF)
6.Carlton (Ditto Essendon)
7.Western Bulldogs
8. Melbourne
9. St Kilda
10. North

 

[What else we can do]

Posted this a few weeks back. Both Essendon and Carlton’s crowds are actually getting larger and larger despite the droughts. This year Essendon drew 1 million to their 23 games and didn’t win a game for more than half the year. That’s almost 300k more than the Dogs, Saints and North.

I think we massively overstate on field performance, the bigger clubs (Ess and Carl) are getting bigger and bigger and the smaller clubs (ie NM and StK) are falling further and further behind.



Anyway, he’s another example. Over 700k to a home and away season

Collingwood 43 times
Essendon 33 times
Carlton 32 times
Richmond 31 times
Hawthorn 23 times
Geelong 19 times
Melbourne 14 times
St Kilda 13 times
W Bulldogs 7 times (best is 788,467)
North Melb 3 times (best is 732,956)

Essendon could go 50 years without a flag (please do) and they wont dip below 3.

We live in different world now Carlton's massive supporter base is mainly over 50 and Essendon over 40. There are more young Hawks, Cats and Tigers now.

 

[What else we can do]

Another excuse to pump up my thread on the off field board. So as of early 2024 (including social media, crowds, membership, Supercoach and Roy Morgan later on in the thread)

1. Collingwood
2. Essendon
3. Carlton
4. Richmond
5. Hawthorn
6. Geelong
7. Melbourne
8. St Kilda
9. W Bullodgs
10. North Melbourne

Huge gap between Collingwood and Essendon, Geelong and Melbourne and the Saints / Dogs and North.

The Roy Morgan numbers are the least consistent with the other metrics because it overstates support from cities vs suburbs (ie Sydney, Brisbane and Geelong vs Essendon, Carlton and Richmond)

Hey the data I provided you put Carlton second and that is what is known in AFL circles

 

[dave10]

Scary how Essendon feature so high up, considering the 20 years of unmitigated disaster. Really puts into context how much bigger they are than the likes of Hawthorn etc.

Here’s the latest Roy Morgan breakdown.

in general, year in, year out Essendon rank 2nd to Collingwood irrespective of no success. Generally on field success sees support increase in this poll.

I have little doubt it’s Collingwood then Essendon. Then for me it’s just followed by Carlton then a little gap to Richmond. Hawthorn and Geelong certainly a level above the remaining Victorian Clubs.

I also think the superior interstate support enjoyed by Collingwood, Carlton and Essendon explains why Richmond is significantly adrift of the bigger 3 clubs. If the survey asks the question in balanced quantities in each state it’s easy to see why the Pies, Blues and Bombers gain an extra leg over the rest.

 

[Hawkk]

Here’s the latest Roy Morgan breakdown.

in general, year in, year out Essendon rank 2nd to Collingwood irrespective of no success. Generally on field success sees support increase in this poll.

I have little doubt it’s Collingwood then Essendon. Then for me it’s just followed by Carlton then a little gap to Richmond. Hawthorn and Geelong certainly a level above the remaining Victorian Clubs.

I also think the superior interstate support enjoyed by Collingwood, Carlton and Essendon explains why Richmond is significantly adrift of the bigger 3 clubs. If the survey asks the question in balanced quantities in each state it’s easy to see why the Pies, Blues and Bombers gain an extra leg over the rest.

View attachment 2446040

I can’t take any list seriously that has West Coast sixth (below Adelaide) and Geelong (8) ahead of Richmond (10) and Hawthorn (9). Not when those teams have much bigger followings in most other metrics. That said there is definitely a big 10 and a smaller 8. It should also be said that Fremantle and Port Adelaide also have far bigger home attendances than their supposed fan bases.

 

[What else we can do]

I can’t take any list seriously that has West Coast sixth (below Adelaide) and Geelong (8) ahead of Richmond (10) and Hawthorn (9). Not when those teams have much bigger followings in most other metrics. That said there is definitely a big 10 and a smaller 8. It should also be said that Fremantle and Port Adelaide also have far bigger home attendances than their supposed fan bases.

Agree! not sure about the Bluebaggers/Bombers having over 200,000 supporters more than Richmond and Hawthorn. But it is a metric to take note of all like all metric's there are flaws.

 

[dave10]

Agree! not sure about the Bluebaggers/Bombers having over 200,000 supporters more than Richmond and Hawthorn. But it is a metric to take note of all like all metric's there are flaws.

I’m convinced the Blues & Bombers have measurably larger bases than the Tigers. In Victoria the support of these three clubs is reasonably close. However, I’m very confident that outside Victoria the Blues / Bombers have significantly more support than the Tigers.

I haven’t got the stats to prove it but you only need to see the levels of support these clubs get interstate over a sustained period of years (not just in successful years) to know it’s an almost certain fact. Wherever they play, in any year they have enormous support. What sort of gap can be attributed to this in a Morgan poll? I think much of this significant gap goes back to this. And I think that’s why Essendon rank so highly in the SuperCoach support as this is also a national ‘survey’ of support. The gap is not just a one year anomaly, it’s largely the case yearly over time so it’s not a fluke.

I think the Hawks and Swans also have very strong support outside their home states. In fact, I’d argue Hawthorn aren’t far behind the Bombers or Blues outside Victoria. The Hawks are always well represented in WA, SA, QLD and obviously Tassie.

 

[What else we can do]

I’m convinced the Blues & Bombers have measurably larger bases than the Tigers. In Victoria the support of these three clubs is reasonably close. However, I’m very confident that outside Victoria the Blues / Bombers have significantly more support than the Tigers.

I haven’t got the stats to prove it but you only need to see the levels of support these clubs get interstate over a sustained period of years (not just in successful years) to know it’s an almost certain fact. Wherever they play, in any year they have enormous support. What sort of gap can be attributed to this in a Morgan poll? I think much of this significant gap goes back to this. And I think that’s why Essendon rank so highly in the SuperCoach support as this is also a national ‘survey’ of support. The gap is not just a one year anomaly, it’s largely the case yearly over time so it’s not a fluke.

I think the Hawks and Swans also have very strong support outside their home states. In fact, I’d argue Hawthorne aren’t far behind the Bombers or Blues outside Victoria. The Hawks are always well represented in WA, SA, QLD and obviously Tassie.

Hawks are well represented interstate I think it stems from the 70's and 80's on the winners, Swans too but can't explain how? Maybe expat New South Welshman?

 

[dave10]

Hawks are well represented interstate I think it stems from the 70's and 80's on the winners, Swans too but can't explain how? Maybe expat New South Welshman?

I think the Swans support outside NSW possibly relates to the notion they can afford a house in another city?!

 

[PerthBoy86]

Hawks are well represented interstate I think it stems from the 70's and 80's on the winners, Swans too but can't explain how? Maybe expat New South Welshman?

Well obviously the old South Melbourne connection.

 

[What else we can do]

Well obviously the old South Melbourne connection.

In Victoria yes but WA and SA they get huge support.

 

[Hawkk]

As I’ve said many times I put less weight in Roy Morgan but this was the 2003 survey…

2003 figures

Sydney 1,341,000 (-44,000)
Brisbane 1,331,000 (-377,000)
Essendon 796,000 (-75,000)
Collingwood 749,000 (+124,000)
West Coast 746,000 (-88,000)
Adelaide 699,000 (+39,000)
Carlton 596,000 (+92,000)
Richmond 401,000 (+71,000)
Hawthorn 390,000 (+86,000)
Fremantle 367,000 (+46,000)
Geelong 345,000 (+207,000)
Port 315,000 (-27,000)
St Kilda 282,000 (+99,000)
Western 254,000 (+89,000)
Kangaroos 249,000 (-65,000)
Melbourne 205,000 (+75,000)

Six of those sixteen clubs went backwards despite Australia’s population growing by 40%, club memberships tripling and attendances being up about 10% (with additional games in Tassie, Ballarat, Canberra, Darwin, GWS and Gold Coast).

It’s crazy how some of these clubs now have almost as many Facebook users and Instagram followers as they do projected total supporters. I reckon social media has made traditional market researchers schedules largely redundant.