The Liberal Party - How long? - Part 2

[Festerz]

Sarah Henderson is having quite the week and not in a good way. Too lazy to do anything but cut and paste the imported crises of other places for the clicks.

The ABC’s managing director and news boss have denounced “opportunistic” attempts by News Corp and Liberal senator Sarah Henderson to conflate its own Four Corners report on Donald Trump and the January 6 Capitol riots with the unfolding saga engulfing the British public broadcaster, the BBC, which has claimed the scalps of its two most senior executives.

Hugh Marks backed the 2021 Four Corners investigation led by 7.30 host Sarah Ferguson, Downfall, which used footage from Trump’s address on January 6, saying its investigation and use of the footage was consistent with the ABC’s high standards of factual, accurate and impartial storytelling.

ABC Managing Director Hugh Marks: Statement on Four Corners program 'Downfall – the Last Days of President Trump’ - About the ABC

The Four Corners program 'Downfall – the Last Days of President Trump' examined the events of the 6 January 2021 Capitol riot in detail, including the role of President Donald Trump. Comparing the BBC’s Panorama program to the ABC’s Four Corners program is opportunistic and false.

www.abc.net.au

 

[NSWCROW]

Mitchell - Hills district Sydney (the ‘Bible belt’)

Re-distribution before the last election gave Greenway a chunk of Mitchell.

Out in the " not-so Bibley " new estates at Box Hill

 

[NSWCROW]

Sarah Henderson is having quite the week and not in a good way. Too lazy to do anything but cut and paste the ideas of others for the clicks.

The ABC’s managing director and news boss have denounced “opportunistic” attempts by News Corp and Liberal senator Sarah Henderson to conflate its own Four Corners report on Donald Trump and the January 6 Capitol riots with the unfolding saga engulfing the British public broadcaster, the BBC, which has claimed the scalps of its two most senior executives.

Hugh Marks backed the 2021 Four Corners investigation led by 7.30 host Sarah Ferguson, Downfall, which used footage from Trump’s address on January 6, saying its investigation and use of the footage was consistent with the ABC’s high standards of factual, accurate and impartial storytelling.

ABC Managing Director Hugh Marks: Statement on Four Corners program 'Downfall – the Last Days of President Trump’ - About the ABC

The Four Corners program 'Downfall – the Last Days of President Trump' examined the events of the 6 January 2021 Capitol riot in detail, including the role of President Donald Trump. Comparing the BBC’s Panorama program to the ABC’s Four Corners program is opportunistic and false.

www.abc.net.au

she's such a nancy mace

 

[western royboy]

Rural folks really need to get their shit together and see through the Nats BS

I’d be careful labelling rural folk as the problem, I’d be looking at some bigger units

On that but off topic. Read an article last week bemoaning the fact that the bánh mì rolls that are now a staple of office lunches across Australia are in danger of disappearing as the sons and daughters of of the Vietnamese (and subsequently Chinese) immigrants who made them famous in their bakeries are pursuing careers in the professions.

Needn't have worried because the deep south colonel in his all white tuxedo has responded .

View attachment 2470305

Appropriated culture for the masses.

Look I had this conversation with some folks last week;

When I was a wee lad,

The Greeks had the fish and chip shops

The Italians had the Pizza & Pasta shops

The Chinese had the Chinese Restaurants

Now we’ve got

Asians running fish and chip shops

Indians running the Pizza & Pasta shops.

We’re did the Greeks go and who is running the Chinese Restaurants?

 

[Festerz]

I’d be careful labelling rural folk as the problem, I’d be looking at some bigger units

Look I had this conversation with some folks last week;

When I was a wee lad,

The Greeks had the fish and chip shops

The Italians had the Pizza & Pasta shops

The Chinese had the Chinese Restaurants

Now we’ve got

Asians running fish and chip shops

Indians running the Pizza & Pasta shops.

We’re did the Greeks go and who is running the Chinese Restaurants?

The children of the Italian and Greek immigrants were too busy running their property and financial empires to work in the seafood and pasta shops. The children of the Chinese immigrants were too busy being accountants and lawyers to run the Chinese restaurants. The children of the Vietnamese immigrants are too busy working or training to be dentists and pharmacists to run the Banh Mi shops.

The US owned fast food mega chains are cashing in on the gap they left behind so the rest of us don't starve.

(Apologies to those of Middle Eastern, Indian and other Asian, African and European sub group heritages I didn't get to offend in my racial stereotyping).

 

[Johnny Bananas]

9fax reports:

James Massola says, “More details of the party room vote are filtering in, and I’ve just been sent a breakdown of the numbers in the party room from an MP counting the numbers.”

“Liberals did not actually vote for or against net zero, but rather, spoke in favour or against the policy.”

“Here’s how the numbers broke down – 17 Liberals spoke in favour of keeping a commitment to net zero by 2050, 28 MPs spoke in favour of dumping support for net zero, and the views of four speakers were not clear.”

“That means 49 of 51 Liberal MPs spoke in the meeting.”

Paul Sakkal says he has the same figures. Those figures haven’t been put to the Moderate side. No vote was taken, so a precise breakdown will not eventuate.

Those numbers represent a clear majority against net zero.

A moderate MP said the four MPs who did not declare a firm position were leaning pro-net zero, meaning the numbers would have been 28-21.

Australia news LIVE: Majority of Liberals favour dumping net zero after five-hour meeting, mostly agree to 10 principles

Follow along as we bring you the latest live news updates from Australia and around the world.

www.brisbanetimes.com.au

Not surprising, but it comfirms the Liberals are not serious about climate change action and are probably little chance of forming government for the next ten years. If I were a moderate MP I'd be considering becoming an independent right about now.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

But seemingly intelligent Labor barrackers (and plenty of people in the media who should know better) will insist to this day that the villain is not Tony Abbott, it’s the Greens for declining to vote for a whole other scheme a year earlier (a scheme to which, just for the record, they had applied Treasury’s own figures to conclude it was as much use as mammaries on a male bovine quadruped.)

Even intelligent people are perfectly capable of drinking kool-aid if it comes from a politician or commentator they trust. There are plenty of intelligent people who in the past have been enthusiastic supporters of McCarthyism, birtherism, the idea the Liberal Party are inherently better managers of the economy, and other theories that have little evidence to support them.

 

[schneebly111]

Australia news LIVE: Majority of Liberals favour dumping net zero after five-hour meeting, mostly agree to 10 principles

Follow along as we bring you the latest live news updates from Australia and around the world.

www.brisbanetimes.com.au

• Liberal leadership aspirant Andrew Hastie said the party should think about forcing a double dissolution election on the net zero target.

Does genius boy realise with Labor on 94 seats in the House and Labor plus Greens on 39 seats in the Senate plus other pro climate action MPs like Payman and Pocock in the Senate an attempt to force a double dissolution on Net Zero would certainly fail? That’s it’s always the government of the day that pushes the triggers for a double dissolution if they think it will benefit them?

And this guy is meant to be a ‘future leader’?????

 

[Johnny Bananas]

• Liberal leadership aspirant Andrew Hastie said the party should think about forcing a double dissolution election on the net zero target.

Does genius boy realise with Labor on 94 seats in the House and Labor plus Greens on 39 seats in the Senate plus other pro climate action MPs like Payman and Pocock in the Senate an attempt to force a double dissolution on Net Zero would certainly fail? That’s it’s always the government of the day that pushes the triggers for a double dissolution if they think it will benefit them?

And this guy is meant to be a ‘future leader’?????

Good gravy, that was a staggeringly dumb thing for Hastie to say.

 

[Kyptastic]

Hastie’s ‘double dissolution’ call was based on the Liberal Party winning the next election, then going for a double dissolution.

Which is still just as insane given the current numbers in the parliament

 

[kalex6251]

• Liberal leadership aspirant Andrew Hastie said the party should think about forcing a double dissolution election on the net zero target.

Does genius boy realise with Labor on 94 seats in the House and Labor plus Greens on 39 seats in the Senate plus other pro climate action MPs like Payman and Pocock in the Senate an attempt to force a double dissolution on Net Zero would certainly fail? That’s it’s always the government of the day that pushes the triggers for a double dissolution if they think it will benefit them?

And this guy is meant to be a ‘future leader’?????

to be fair, think hastie said something like 'the next conservative govt .... '

im sure their catastrophic loss earlier this year hasnt been forgotten ..... ...... surely not

 

[schneebly111]

to be fair, think hastie said something like 'the next conservative govt .... '

im sure their catastrophic loss earlier this year hasnt been forgotten ..... ...... surely not

The Liberals aren’t due to be in government until 2031 at the earliest. By then 80% of the renewable energy transition will be done (mostly from private business).

Are the Liebrals wanting private companies to be forced to demolish wind turbines and solar panels if they get into government?

 

[Festerz]

On the Nats, its the same issue as the reactionary Libs: what always drew them back to a more sensible position doesn't hold the same allure any more.

What did draw them back: the government benches.

The Nats would moderate their worst impulses (as well as reasonable conservatives in the Liberal Party) because of the attraction of being a minister. For a key section of both those groups now, they don't care about being a minister if it means compromise.

So only one major political force is sufficiently interested in government any more. And the legendary Greens-defeater of the Socialist Left: Anthony Norman Albanese, is in charge. I'm sure he feels pretty comfortable he can defend his positions on either flank right now.

Fair summary.

The latest Newspoll, conducted October 27–30 gave Labor a 57–43% lead over the Coalition, unchanged from the previous Newspoll in early October.

But the primary vote polling was the interesting thing. Showing a direct swap out of coalition support across to One Nation.

Primary votes were 36% for Labor (down one point), 24% for the Coalition (down four points), 15% for One Nation (up four points), 11% for the Greens (down one point) and 14% for all others (up two points).

So the focus for the Liberal Party, and what I guess framed the thinking of the majority of people in the Party room today was halting that slide of their voter base to One Nation - and that meant abandoning what has been and continues to be a totemic rallying point for them - a Net Zero Target.

What does this mean for the Albanese Govt? Not much as you rightly surmise other than a smug feeling that they don't face much of a threat to their hold on power going into the next election and so can hold the course on Net Zero and foreign policies while doing not much of real significance on domestic economic and social reform.

The polling shows The Greens continue to tread water on the margins and pose no real threat in capturing more than maybe 1-2 House of Reps seats where government and policy is determined. You'd think this capitulation by the Libs on Net Zero would be a gift to the Greens but polling shows it's the teal independents remain more of a power in that area. The Teals battle to retain and possibly extend their hold on inner city seats as a result of the Liberals again abandoning Net Zero will be the real interest of the next election imo.

If I was a Greens supporter, and it seems there are a disproportionate number who post on the SRP threads, I'd be troubled as to why their party isn't taking more advantage of the current political climate electorally.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

Looks like the Liberals are going to shoot themselves in the foot.

Liberals poised to dump net zero target after majority reject policy in marathon five-hour meeting

Senior Liberal sources say 28 speakers wanted to jettison the 2050 net zero emissions target entirely, 17 expressed desire to retain it in some form, while four were on the fence

www.theguardian.com

 

[Festerz]

Looks like the Liberals are going to shoot themselves in the foot.

Liberals poised to dump net zero target after majority reject policy in marathon five-hour meeting

Senior Liberal sources say 28 speakers wanted to jettison the 2050 net zero emissions target entirely, 17 expressed desire to retain it in some form, while four were on the fence

www.theguardian.com

The shooting was done a long time ago mate. They're just arguing over how high to amputate the limb.

It's the same foot they've been shooting into over two decades so it's a gangrenous mess now and there's not much of a carcass to deal with.

 

[nut]

And let’s look at where the remaining “Liberals” exist in order of least to most safe:

Longman - outer Brisbane to Sunshine Coast

Berowra - outer Hills district of Sydney with a very moderate MP in Lesser

La Trobe - mostly rural just on the outskirts of Melbourne

Forrest - SW WA regional centres

Bowman - Brisbane outer metro

Lindsay - Sydney outer metro

Casey - Dandenong ranges rural

Fairfax - Sunshine Coast

Mitchell - Hills district Sydney (the ‘Bible belt’)

Goldstein - inner Melbourne but Teal territory

Monash - rural Vic

McPherson - Gold Coast

Grey - outback SA

Flinders - semi rural Mornington peninsula

(Here would be Capricornia Central QLD, the first National seat in comparison)

Fisher - rural sunshine coast

Canning - outer metro Perth and rural

Fadden - gold coast

Cook - Sutherland shire

Wright - rural Qld

Hume - semi rural outer sydney

Moncrieff - Gold Coast

Durack - North WA

Wannon - Rural Vic

Farrell - Rural NSW

Barker - Rural SA

O’Connor - Rural WA

Groom - Rural Qld

Herbert - Townsville, the safest Liberal seat in the country.

It’s clear the safer the seats are the more rural they are. I count about 12 that are pretty much rural seats, not even semi rural.

That puts the coalition on 27 seats that represent rural areas, and 16 that represent major city outer metro or Gold/Sunshine Coast. The exceptions being Cook (Cronulla) and Goldstein (former Teal).

The Coalition now is 60% representing strictly rural areas. So the rural influence, the Nat influence reigns supreme, even if nominally they are the “junior” party.

Skynews is free to air in the regionals ….

Sussan will lose her seat to an independent next election.

 

[Festerz]

Skynews is free to air in the regionals ….

It's a free channel on my SmartTV in the city.

Which is ironic.

 

[Saint]

Apparently an 'overwhelming' number of Liberal Party MPs support ditching net zero. Which is fine if you want to hold onto your rural seats who - justifiably or not - have concerns about renewable energy meeting their needs and the loss of jobs due to abandoning fossil fuels over time.

But the election isn't won in rural seats and the urbanisation of Australia is only going to increase in the next few years. An anti-climate change stance certainly won't win back those that went teal two elections ago. I am not sure the Libs know what to do to win government any more other than hoping for the ALP to stuff up.

This is their problem. With only 21% primary vote amongst the growing cohort of people and most of this outside of urban areas, if the party takes up policies to please their members and current voters, it will only alienate more of the other 79% of Millennial or Gen Z voters (non-members or voters) who they need to win over to form Government.

It's like the Greens. They stick to policies and principles their members agree with and they acknowledge it'll limit their votes.

The mistake people are making is assuming the Liberals (or even Labor) will ever get more than 40% 1st preferences again.
Just let the Libs cater to their 20-30%. The landscape has evolved and the principles the Liberals and Nationals stand for, the interests of the richest, is shrinking just like the rich are getting richer and leaving the majority behind.

 

[schneebly111]

Thomson is a former soldier who holds the safest Liberal seat in the country btw…..

 

[western royboy]

Thomson is a former soldier who holds the safest Liberal seat in the country btw…..

I’m awaiting Dickhead Dan to chime in, living in the Windfarm Capital of Australia all the while riding shotgun on Nuclear

 

[Ghost Patrol]

So they made their decision, and need a day or two to come up with some talking points.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

I can only guess it’s the greater isolation.

If (painting in broad strokes) the right is about individualism and the left is about communitarianism, it would be no surprise if it’s easier to get traction in fringe and rural areas with something that doesn’t require mass involvement.

Rural voters more likely to be involved in primary production (either directly or by association) compared with urban voters? Possibly less likely to be university educated? Could be completely wrong on both counts though.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

The polling shows The Greens continue to tread water on the margins and pose no real threat in capturing more than maybe 1-2 House of Reps seats where government and policy is determined. You'd think this capitulation by the Libs on Net Zero would be a gift to the Greens but polling shows it's the teal independents remain more of a power in that area.

Well yeah, I think relatively few people go directly from voting Liberal to voting Greens. People generally don't vote on climate change alone, they have multiple interests. In many respects the Teals have positioned themselves as being moderate Liberals who aren't held hostage by the hard right on climate, therefore they appeal to several of those multiple interests for erstwhile Liberal voters. Why wouldn't they be the first port of call for those frustrated by the Liberal Party's stance on net zero?

If I was a Greens supporter, and it seems there are a disproportionate number who post on the SRP threads, I'd be troubled as to why their party isn't taking more advantage of the current political climate electorally.

Generally, the people who have become disillusioned with the Liberal Party switch their vote to Labor if they think the Liberals are wrong on the economy and cost of living, to the Teals if they think the Liberals are right on the economy but wrong on climate change, or to One Nation if they think the Liberals are right on the economy and climate change but wrong on immigration.

Who switches to the Greens? Again, relatively few people go directly from voting Liberal to voting Greens. It's usually not a promising pool for them to fish in. Generally, the people who switch to the Greens are those who have become disillusioned with Labor on economic fairness or climate change.

There are two major problems for the Greens though. The first is that a lot of people are just happy for any action on climate change at all after nine years of Liberal dithering, so they haven't become disillusioned with Labor on that yet.

The second is that even with house prices becoming ever more unaffordable, most voters are not suffering hard enough financially to become disillusioned with the way Labor are running the economy. That's fundamentally what is powering the left to victory in New York and to second place in the polls in the UK.

Some might say the Greens haven't run as strong a campaign on affordability as the left in those places, but even if they did, I'd argue it would be less effective. Labor have little to fear until the middle class really start to suffer.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

It's not like things couldn't turn around. People could just start voting for progressive tax rates like what we had in the 50's-80's and we'd be back to partying.

Can you imagine if other states collected their own Gas like the Vic Govt did for Bass Strait gas?

THe problem is that everything was so good during the party that those who lived through it didn't pay attention to strong powers trying to hoard everything for themselves.

Or sold out their kids and grandkids to kick the party up a gear.

 

[Festerz]

If you were running

Well yeah, I think relatively few people go directly from voting Liberal to voting Greens. People generally don't vote on climate change alone, they have multiple interests. In many respects the Teals have positioned themselves as being moderate Liberals who aren't held hostage by the hard right on climate, therefore they appeal to several of those multiple interests for erstwhile Liberal voters. Why wouldn't they be the first port of call for those frustrated by the Liberal Party's stance on net zero?


Generally, the people who have become disillusioned with the Liberal Party switch their vote to Labor if they think the Liberals are wrong on the economy and cost of living, to the Teals if they think the Liberals are right on the economy but wrong on climate change, or to One Nation if they think the Liberals are right on the economy and climate change but wrong on immigration.

Who switches to the Greens? Again, relatively few people go directly from voting Liberal to voting Greens. It's usually not a promising pool for them to fish in. Generally, the people who switch to the Greens are those who have become disillusioned with Labor on economic fairness or climate change.

There are two major problems for the Greens though. The first is that a lot of people are just happy for any action on climate change at all after nine years of Liberal dithering, so they haven't become disillusioned with Labor on that yet.

The second is that even with house prices becoming ever more unaffordable, most voters are not suffering hard enough financially to become disillusioned with the way Labor are running the economy. That's fundamentally what is powering the left to victory in New York and to second place in the polls in the UK.

Some might say the Greens haven't run as strong a campaign on affordability as the left in those places, but even if they did, I'd argue it would be less effective. Labor have little to fear until the middle class really start to suffer.

Excellent detailed response. Very informative.

My point was not about voters switching from Liberals to Greens as I agree that's a stretch too far and not worth the effort.

But more about the Coalition bringing Net Zero and Global Warming to the national media spotlight and the opportunity that (should) present to an environment future oriented political party like The Greens.

This should be the point of the arrow that The Greens use to galvanise support around their full policy agenda -environmental, social and economic - about Australia's future.

But they haven't. They've just been very quiet through all of it.

And as a result the headline discussion has reverted back to the Libs vs Labor stuff.

A missed opportunity to fill a void and build momentum in my view. But I've never been a member of a political party or a marketer so maybe I just don't get it.