- Aug 17, 2006
- 24,455
- 23,859
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Yep.
The detailed internal post election review conducted by Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill looked at the reasons for the Shorten Government losing the unloseable election and came up with these factors at the top of their list:
Findings 14-18 of the Emerson/Weatherill review basically outline all the mistakes Labor and other groups made based on the party's assumption of victory - a lot of those revolve around the party reading too much into positive opinion polling and getting too far ahead of itself instead of focusing on winning the election. The report says progressive groups and commentators on social media "banked the win" which had the effect of reinforced Labor's strategy design - they were all too happy to drink the same bathwater.
- Labor and a number of other stakeholders had effectively 'banked the win' before the election, which led to a series of errors
- The ALP's policy platform was so cumbersome and unwieldy - "comprising more than 250 costed policies" - that the party couldn't adjust its tactics during the campaign
- While "no single person cost Labor the election", the report acknowledges Bill Shorten's unpopularity was a major factor in the election loss
- Labor's approach on climate change, Adani and coal mining in general alienated large swathes of voters (and electorates), particularly in Queensland, WA and NSW's Hunter Valley -
And that age based narrative that it was boomers and sections of Gen X that were responsible for the Shorten loss because they chose Morrison over 'a chance at equity for their own children and grandchildren' is simplistic and revisionist nonsense.
The Shorten negative gearing policies posed zero threat to 'boomers or gen X' housing equity because it was not applicable to existing housing stock. Similarly, the franking tax credits policies were of little or no financial consequence for the overwhelming majority of them.
What made the difference was a targeted irresponsible and factually incorrect political campaigning from large swathes of the media.
All of those findings of the review were not ignored by the Labor Party - they were taken on board and define the softly approach being taken by the current Albanese Government.
And say what you will about the policy feebleness of that approach - it has had one major impact and that is to play a large role in the destruction of the Coalition as an effective political force in the cities. And imho the sad truth is that destruction of thir political opponents is (I would imagine) the no. 1 goal of political political strategists whose party/candidates have a realistic hope of gaining and retaining the reigns of power.
Edit: As a side note one of the authors of that review, former Labor Minister Craig Emerson is a strident social media critic of the Albanese Government's failure to make significant policy changes from their conservative predecessors - most notably in the areas of defence and resource management.
I think it's going to be interesting to see how history stacks Shorten up against the other Coalition and Labor leaders who took their parties to an election but never became PM. Thinking about the list, there's Dutton, Crean, Beazley, Hewson, Peacock... I think Shorten's banked a lot of credits post 2019 and post 2022.




