News AFL overhauls Academy and FS bid matching, discussing draft lockout

[marcmurphy3]

I think some people are missing the point behind these changes. The AFL is trying to make clubs pay closer to fair value and stop the first round being blown out. Its not about punishing clubs who match bids, or making them cough up extreme overs for the right. It seems thats what some are looking for. Everything is about balance.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

You can't trade for a player during the draft, and clubs don't know when a bid is going to come a month before during the trade period.

No but they have a fair idea.

For instance if we had Humphrey requesting a trade to Carlton next year and in trade week Walker is the consensus pick 3 and there is a clear number 1. We are holding picks 6, 16 (syd) and 20 (north)
What picks do you think we are offering GC that they might actually accept?

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I think some people are missing the point behind these changes. The AFL is trying to make clubs pay closer to fair value and stop the first round being blown out. Its not about punishing clubs who match bids, or making them cough up extreme overs for the right. It seems thats what some are looking for. Everything is about balance.

The point I think people are missing is that you only carry a large deficit if the two picks you are matching with have nowhere near the value of the bid you are matching which it the whole point of the changes.




Pick 1 is an outlier though and probably needs looking at.

 

[Mat Mann]

The mighty sainters want the academies abolished or at a close second for the price to be so high to match you basically can’t.

and the nepo clubs want them for free, do you know how negotiations work??

 

[Elixuh]

The easiest way to stop picks being pushed out is to stop making bids.

 

[Stamos]

No but they have a fair idea.

A change in bid number makes a dramatic difference. Nobody was expecting a bid on Dean at 3 during trade week.
In your example of a bid at 4, what happens if the bid comes at 2?

For instance if we had Humphrey requesting a trade to Carlton next year and in trade week Walker is the consensus pick 3 and there is a clear number 1. We are holding picks 6, 16 (syd) and 20 (north)
What picks do you think we are offering GC that they might actually accept?

Probably none.

 

[Elixuh]

and the nepo clubs want them for free, do you know how negotiations work??

Except no one has said they want them for free. It’s makes me sick how far you dun fell Mat Mann, making things up. Sad!

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

A change in bid number makes a dramatic difference. Nobody was expecting a bid on Dean at 3 during trade week.
In your example of a bid at 4, what happens if the bid comes at 2?


Probably none.

You match it with picks 16 and 20 which is a farce.


Yeh I think we both know you trade pick 6 for a potential or current star and match a bid as high as 2 with 16 and 20.

 

[Jirik13]

No but they have a fair idea.

For instance if we had Humphrey requesting a trade to Carlton next year and in trade week Walker is the consensus pick 3 and there is a clear number 1. We are holding picks 6, 16 (syd) and 20 (north)
What picks do you think we are offering GC that they might actually accept?

You tell us. I am really curious, in your opinion, what offer would Suns accept?

Humphrey had basically a break out season. He is 21, under contract.

As of interest, here is what Suns paid for 29 year old Petracca.

SUNS send: Selection 7, 8, 37, SUNS 2026 Future First Round Selection and 2027 Future Third Round Selection

SUNS receive: Christian Petracca, Selection 24, 28 and Melbourne 2026 Future Second Round Selection

 

[Stamos]

You match it with picks 16 and 20 which is a farce.


Yeh I think we both know you trade pick 6 for a potential or current star and match a bid as high as 2 with 16 and 20.

But you can't match a bid at 2 with picks 16 + 20.

 

[marcmurphy3]

You tell us. I am really curious, in your opinion, what offer would Suns accept?

Humphrey had basically a break out season. He is 21, under contract.

As of interest, here is what Suns paid for 29 year old Petracca.

SUNS send: Selection 7, 8, 37, SUNS 2026 Future First Round Selection and 2027 Future Third Round Selection

SUNS receive: Christian Petracca, Selection 24, 28 and Melbourne 2026 Future Second Round Selection

I think it depends on what kind of year he has.

 

[Jirik13]

I think it depends on what kind of year he has.

Let’s say like 2025.

 

[Broski]

Nice mental gymnastics there, I award you the bronze medal.

(My) Logical post is logical. Shock horror.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

But you can't match a bid at 2 with picks 16 + 20.

2481 minus 924 and 757
Leaves you with a deficit of 800 which means that you can match 2 with 16 and 20

 

[Stamos]

2481 minus 924 and 757
Leaves you with a deficit of 800 which means that you can match 2 with 16 and 20

With a massive deficit...

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

You tell us. I am really curious, in your opinion, what offer would Suns accept?

Humphrey had basically a break out season. He is 21, under contract.

As of interest, here is what Suns paid for 29 year old Petracca.

SUNS send: Selection 7, 8, 37, SUNS 2026 Future First Round Selection and 2027 Future Third Round Selection

SUNS receive: Christian Petracca, Selection 24, 28 and Melbourne 2026 Future Second Round Selection

Under this made up scenario 6 and our future first which if we finished 13th this year would probably be expected to still be high.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

With a massive deficit...

So yes you can.
And in this scenario that massive deficit would then come off a future first tied to Sydney after they just finished top 3 the year before.

That’s why allowing a large deficit is stupid. It allows clubs to manipulate thing’s and favours top sides and it is pretty easy to overcome. If you are taking a large deficit it’s because you are using crap picks on top end players. If you make it say 200-300pt max than you are creating a situation where they are matching with decent picks.

If they want to allow a 836pt deficit than a tax is more than fair; even if it is after say the first 200pts.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Let’s say like 2025.

2 1sts including 1 in the top 10. If he takes another step then 2 top 10s (or equivalent)

Itd be hard to get a deal done because nobody will want 2027 1sts, although 2026 1sts will be valued higher then usual.

Im not sure you can use the trac trade as a baseline. 2025 picks were valued lower then normal, particularly by GC who just needed points.

In normal circumstances no way is any club giving 2 top 10 picks for a 30 year old Trac.

 

[Jirik13]

2 1sts including 1 in the top 10. If he takes another step then 2 top 10s or 3 1sts.

Itd be hard to get a deal done because nobody will want 2027 1sts, although 2026 1sts will be valued higher then usual.

Im not sure you can use the trac trade as a baseline. 2025 picks were valued lower then normal, particularly by GC who just needed points.

Not using Trac as baseline, just as of interest.

Not sure what will Suns do and how Humphrey will go in 2026.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Not using Trac as baseline, just as of interest.

Not sure what will Suns do and how Humphrey will go in 2026.

Hopefully for you guys he stays. Not sure on his family situation but itd be awfully tempting to hang around for 3-4 years, have a crack at a flag, then go home as a FA for ridiculous money down the track.

Although my gut feel is if he asks a 2nd time the Suns will trade him (I know he didnt ask this year but was implied). Thats what usually happens and 2026 will be Suns last chance in a while to cash in. They wont want him going in 2027.

 

[Purple Suit]

Hopefully for you guys he stays. Not sure on his family situation but itd be awfully tempting to hang around for 3-4 years, have a crack at a flag, then go home as a FA for ridiculous money down the track.

Although my gut feel is if he asks a 2nd time the Suns will trade him (I know he didnt ask this year but was implied). Thats what usually happens and 2026 will be Suns last chance in a while to cash in. They wont want him going in 2027.

I think it's simple with Humphrey, surely he wants midfield time so has floated the trade idea and can now start asking to be kept happy. We will see how much the Suns want to keep him by where they play him. Maybe they could use Trac and him to rotate between forward and midfield 50/50 during games.

 

[Mat Mann]

Except no one has said they want them for free. It’s makes me sick how far you dun fell Mat Mann, making things up. Sad!

What's sad is you

Matthews also highlighted that the Giants and Suns have been disadvantaged by not having access to father-son selections, while calling for the removal of the bidding system for players from the western Sydney region to increase talent pathways.

‘Play the homesick card’: Fuse lit in AFL debate as Vic clubs savaged over draft hypocrisy

‘Play the homesick card’: Fuse lit in AFL debate as Vic clubs savaged over draft hypocrisy

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Elixuh]

What's sad is you

‘Play the homesick card’: Fuse lit in AFL debate as Vic clubs savaged over draft hypocrisy

‘Play the homesick card’: Fuse lit in AFL debate as Vic clubs savaged over draft hypocrisy

www.foxsports.com.au

That’s some good research Mat Mann.

He makes a valid point about not having access to FS. Maybe they should have free rein on their academy picks until they’re able to access FS picks.

 

[GinniAndTonic]

The easiest way to stop picks being pushed out is to stop making bids.

Nah easiest way is to get rid of all academy's that nobody else other than the NSW and QLD clubs want.... That would fix everything.

 

[Elixuh]

Nah easiest way is to get rid of all academy's that nobody else other than the NSW and QLD clubs want.... That would fix everything.

What if we just removed academy players from the draft, so they go straight onto our list. Out of sight and out of mind, you know?