Prediction Who will finish higher - Gold Coast or Carlton

[Opine]

Losing to the Blues is irrelevant, its where we are positioned after the final H&A round.

Pyke has 2017 as his reputation to take a team to a grand final. If we were to fail to make finals this year, questions would be asked. I think there is minimum expectation to go to W2 finals. Anything less I would consider it a failure. Even if we had injuries or suspensions this year I think questions would be raised.

I asked what you consider the consequences would be for Pyke if he lost to a team that you've emphatically declared a certainty for pick 1 or 2. You rightfully cited Pykes performance in 2017; thereby putting such a scenario in context.

Although the circumstances are clearly different, given that you consider a top 6 Crow's finish to be a must, Bolton's performance will likely be judged in the context of performance indicators applicable to where the Blues are at; adequate improvement is a must. If there is adequate growth and improvement in player performance, it doesn't necessarily follow that Bolton will be sacked if you end up with pick 1.

 

[jezzajay]

This is where I see it happening, Carlton will give us a top 4 pick, potentially top 2. If we get Pick 1 from you, Bolton is sacked.

Crows should end up top 6, I think anything less is a failure. Injuries,suspensions, loss of form may happen, but there is no excuses this year. How deep one can go in September is so dependent on how hot a team is at the right time of the year. Its a long race starting in March and ending in Late September, so many things can happen.

Wow...
So many things can happen for Adelaide but not Carlton according to grotto.
It is definitive according to you what will happen to the blues...

 

[GROTTO]

I asked what you consider the consequences would be for Pyke if he lost to a team that you've emphatically declared a certainty for pick 1 or 2. You rightfully cited Pykes performance in 2017; thereby putting such a scenario in context.

Although the circumstances are clearly different, given that you consider a top 6 Crow's finish to be a must, Bolton's performance will likely be judged in the context of performance indicators applicable to where the Blues are at; adequate improvement is a must. If there is adequate growth and improvement in player performance, it doesn't necessarily follow that Bolton will be sacked if you end up with pick 1.

Seriously if Bolton keeps his job and you guys finish bottom or runners up to the spoon, there is a terrible problem at Carlton. He would need to go. Its a shame you guys dumped Ratten years ago as he was a good coach.

If Pyke fails for the 8 this year and next, I think his head will definitely roll.

The interesting aspect I find about Carlton is that you guys dont acknowledge or admit to predicament your Club is in. Other posters from other Clubs try to find ways to change and improve.

You guys are happy with the status quo. I think thats Carltons biggest problem. You guys have got some good players and I think with the right coach over time could develop into something in 3-4 years time, but it wont be on Bolton's watch.

 

[Robertio]

Seriously if Bolton keeps his job and you guys finish bottom or runners up to the spoon, there is a terrible problem at Carlton. He would need to go. Its a shame you guys dumped Ratten years ago as he was a good coach.

If Pyke fails for the 8 this year and next, I think his head will definitely roll.

The interesting aspect I find about Carlton is that you guys dont acknowledge or admit to predicament your Club is in. Other posters from other Clubs try to find ways to change and improve.

You guys are happy with the status quo. I think thats Carltons biggest problem. You guys have got some good players and I think with the right coach over time could develop into something in 3-4 years time, but it wont be on Bolton's watch.

Bolton will coach into 2020 and Ratten wasn't a good coach at the time. The one thing you got right is we're happy with the status quo, our under 23 squad would murder your under 23 squad.

 

[Cuzz09]

If Carlton finish bottom but win a handful of games and are genuinely more competitive but just not for 4 qtrs then they're on the right track.

They were pretty good v us at the G in rd 5. (We kicked pretty poorly though 10.19)

They will push teams.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[jezzajay]

The interesting aspect I find about Carlton is that you guys dont acknowledge or admit to predicament your Club is in. Other posters from other Clubs try to find ways to change and improve.

You see grotto...this is where you are wrong time and time again!
All you have to do is look a little harder as there are mountains of threads/posts on our board where we dissect our teams position, direction and you will see that yes we are not happy about our position, yes we are bullish about our direction and we discuss ad nauseum what needs to be done. All in black and white and accessible for you if you bothered.
You dismiss all of it with your nonsense posting and jabs. You are welcome to debate/question this on our thead you know...but it appears you do not have the nerve to do so. But we all know your arguments against Carlton have little substance (as it’s all hear say or in your head) so you will get cut down to shreds.
It’s clear as day that you are nothing more than a Carlton troll.

 

[Coopers]

Serious question for GROTTO. You've been emphatic, definitive, and unrelenting in declaring how most certainly bad the Blues will be in 2019. if your side happen's to loose to the Blues in 2019 what will be the consequences for Pyke? Will you turn on him?

I bloody well will, because somehow things will be way worse than the horror show that was 2018.

 

[Doashuey]

Carlton's list looks to be stronger and there were quite a few games last year where they looked pretty good even though they lost- The opener against Tigers, Rd 5 against WCE, mid season against Sydney at the SCG. They also had some shockers- I was unfortunate enough to witness the Blues v Dogs match in about round 4 and honestly think I've seen better games of footy here in Townsville. The injuries to key players really hurt them and despite Docherty again out for the season, if they can have a decent run with injuries then I think they can get off the bottom of the ladder.
Gold Coast on the other hand have lost some serious talent in May and Lynch but they also had these guys miss decent chunks of footy last season. I think the past couple of years clearance of unhappy yet talented players will be good for the club. If they can get the culture and feel around the club up to a certain level then we will see improvement. The fact they couldnt play at their home ground for the first half of 2018 was also destabilising. So their list is now very young and inexperienced yet I think they can improve in 2019 with a more stable atmosphere with less distractions.

Hard call to make but I reckon GC edge Blues by percentage at the end of 2019.

 

[Enclosed_Animal]

Looking at 2018 B+F results.

Carlton: Only 3 of the top 10 in their 2018 B+F will even be there in 2 years. They have a few quality players 30+, then Cripps, Curnow, Docherty (2 knees) and a bunch of high draft picks with real potential that have realistically shown not a lot. Automatic improvement is not simply a given with young kids, and listing a whole lot of high draft picks that have shown flashes does not simply translate into better results the following year.

1st - Patrick Cripps (166 votes)
2nd - Kade Simpson (108 votes) - 35 this year
3rd - Ed Curnow (98 votes) - 30 this year
3rd - Charlie Curnow (98 votes)
5th - Dale Thomas (71 votes) - 32 this year
6th - Liam Jones (48 votes) - 29 this year
7th - Zac Fisher (47 votes)
8th - Sam Rowe (43 votes) - gone
9th - Matthew Wright (39 votes) - retired
10th - Marc Murphy (39 votes) - 32 this year

GC: Yes they have lost Lynch and May but neither were top 10 B+F. Only one player over 30 in there, so that looks like a solid young nucleus to build around. Serious lack of star power in that group though, and losing Lynch and May has to hurt significantly.

1st: Jarrod Harbrow (390) - 31 this year
2nd – Touk Miller (351)
3rd – Lachie Weller (336)
4th – Rory Thompson (316)
5th – Alex Sexton (303)
6th – David Swallow (300)
7th – Aaron Young (261)
=8th – Jarrod Witts (251)
=8th – Nick Holman (251)
10th – Jack Martin (249)

To me it looks like ownership of the teams performance has been passed at GC to the younger players, while Carlton still look heavily reliant on their older players (and Cripps). Newish coaching setup and quite a few new players at GC too. That can always good for a few early wins. Plus they dont have to contend with the Comm Games this year which screwed them early in 2018. Considering the amount of Carltons list north of 30, and how many of their list have had interrupted pre-seasons, Carlton at $3.75 for least wins looks over the odds. They still probably finish above GC, but I reckon its closer than many people think.

Also again looking at the B+F, Cripps has won that by the length of Flemington Straight. If he gets injured, it could be a very very long year for Carlton.

 

[GROTTO]

Considering the amount of Carltons list north of 30, and how many of their list have had interrupted pre-seasons, Carlton at $3.75 for least wins looks over the odds. They still probably finish above GC, but I reckon its closer than many people think.

Food for thought, Carlton were around the same odds as last year to win the spoon and they won it in stunning fashion.

If the Suns roll them in Round 4, I just dont know where their other wins will come from. Saints have a 4-1 recent Head to Head ratio over them.

 

[Golumless]

The only team out of the two that has a realistic chance to jump is Gold Coast. The kicker there is we're entering Dews second year, which should mean if Dew knows what he is doing, we should see a massive tightening in Gold Coast structures (assuming year 1 was used to start developing it, and getting fitness up to scratch). Structures and buy in win games, and from that, I'd be comfortable setting a pass mark of 6 wins here.

Carlton right now, well, they may improve slightly just because it's harder to get worse but there is no reason to be optimistic 2019 will be genuinely better for them. Same coach who has proven he's not up to it at all (which is already crippling), and injuries already mounting is certainly troubling. I'd be surprised if they won more then 4 games this year. Sack Bolton, and I reckon this will be a team to watch for a good jump in 2020 though seeing their fitness should improve in 2019 with the addition of Russel.

I should mention, list strength is just a load of wank at the best of times.

 

[kreglze]

Looking at 2018 B+F results.

Carlton: Only 3 of the top 10 in their 2018 B+F will even be there in 2 years. They have a few quality players 30+, then Cripps, Curnow, Docherty (2 knees) and a bunch of high draft picks with potential that have realistically shown not a lot. Automatic improvement is not simply a given with young kids, and listing a whole lot of players that have shown flashes does not necessarily translate into better results the following year.

1st - Patrick Cripps (166 votes)
2nd - Kade Simpson (108 votes) - 35 this year
3rd - Ed Curnow (98 votes) - 30 this year
3rd - Charlie Curnow (98 votes)
5th - Dale Thomas (71 votes) - 32 this year
6th - Liam Jones (48 votes) - 29 this year
7th - Zac Fisher (47 votes)
8th - Sam Rowe (43 votes) - gone
9th - Matthew Wright (39 votes) - retired
10th - Marc Murphy (39 votes) - 32 this year

GC: Yes they have lost Lynch and May but neither were top 10 B+F. Only one player over 30 in there, so that looks like a solid young nucleus to build around. Serious lack of star power in that group though, and losing Lynch and May has to hurt significantly.

1st: Jarrod Harbrow (390) - 31 this year
2nd – Touk Miller (351)
3rd – Lachie Weller (336)
4th – Rory Thompson (316)
5th – Alex Sexton (303)
6th – David Swallow (300)
7th – Aaron Young (261)
=8th – Jarrod Witts (251)
=8th – Nick Holman (251)
10th – Jack Martin (249)

To me it looks like ownership of the teams performance has been passed at GC to the younger players, while Carlton still look heavily reliant on their older players (and Cripps). New coach at GC too. That is always good for a few early wins. Considering the amount of Carltons list north of 30, and how many of their list have had interrupted pre-seasons, Carlton at $3.75 for least wins looks over the odds. They still probably finish above GC, but I reckon its closer than many people think.

Also again looking at the B+F, Cripps has won that by the length of Flemington Straight. If he gets injured, it could be a very very long year for Carlton.

Interesting post. Really puts both teams lists into perspective. Forgot Weller finished 3rd after a slow start. Now he is settled could go close to being the BnF this season.

 

[GROTTO]

The only team out of the two that has a realistic chance to jump is Gold Coast. The kicker there is we're entering Dews second year, which should mean if Dew knows what he is doing, we should see a massive tightening in Gold Coast structures (assuming year 1 was used to start developing it, and getting fitness up to scratch). Structures and buy in win games, and from that, I'd be comfortable setting a pass mark of 6 wins here.

Carlton right now, well, they may improve slightly just because it's harder to get worse but there is no reason to be optimistic 2019 will be genuinely better for them. Same coach who has proven he's not up to it at all (which is already crippling), and injuries already mounting is certainly troubling. I'd be surprised if they won more then 4 games this year. Sack Bolton, and I reckon this will be a team to watch for a good jump in 2020 though.

GCS had a terrible H&A schedule in 2018 which some people forget which was a massive contributing factor to their performances.

Head to Head, I would back Dew over Bolton. I agree if Bolton was sacked the Blues could go places with a decent coach. Bolton has currently the worst AFL record, excluding the Hawks games, where everyone knows he was never in fully in charge at the Club.

 

[Golumless]

GCS had a terrible H&A schedule in 2018 which some people forget which was a massive contributing factor to their performances.

Head to Head, I would back Dew over Bolton. I agree if Bolton was sacked the Blues could go places with a decent coach. Bolton has currently the worst AFL record, excluding the Hawks games, where everyone knows he was never in fully in charge at the Club.

Both teams had a terrible H&A schedule. That happens when you're piss poor.

 

[Robertio]

Yep the teams that finished from 12th to 18th were all piss poor.

 

[kreglze]

Both teams had a terrible H&A schedule. That happens when you're piss poor.

Think he may be refering to the first 11 games of last season were all played away for us.

 

[Coopers]

GCS had a terrible H&A schedule in 2018 which some people forget which was a massive contributing factor to their performances.

Head to Head, I would back Dew over Bolton. I agree if Bolton was sacked the Blues could go places with a decent coach. Bolton has currently the worst AFL record, excluding the Hawks games, where everyone knows he was never in fully in charge at the Club.

I would have had Carlton ahead of GC, but looking at the pre-season injury list, that's not great news for Carlton at all.
So, I reckon GC gets the nod.

Round 4 a biggie for sure.

 

[GROTTO]

Yep the teams that finished from 12th to 18th were all piss poor.

So a team that misses the 8 by percentage and lost 5 games by ~ 2 goals, is piss poor lol.

Youre funny. How bad does that make Carlton for missing the finals for 5 years straight?

 

[Golumless]

Yep the teams that finished from 12th to 18th were all piss poor.

Seeing I only specified the 17th and 18th team, it's a real stretch to go all the way to 12th.

That said, you don't agree that the draw is difficult for teams that are barely AFL standard, if not at all. You don't have many winnable games regardless of home and away thus making a draw hard.

Think he may be refering to the first 11 games of last season were all played away for us.

Oh fair enough. I completely forgot about that.

 

[GROTTO]

Think he may be refering to the first 11 games of last season were all played away for us.

Correct, Suns didnt play an official Home game at home till R11. I would back Dew to improve the Suns more than the Blues.

 

[GROTTO]

I would have had Carlton ahead of GC, but looking at the pre-season injury list, that's not great news for Carlton at all.
So, I reckon GC gets the nod.

Round 4 a biggie for sure.

I think what Carlton posters will learn which hasnt effected them as they havent had the need to do well in the H&A season for years is that a poor preseason truly stuffs up your H&A performances and as a player they are always playing catch up to get back to fitness compare to other players.

In Round 4, Suns have Luko and Rankine in their side which I would rate more than a lot of Carlton players. Its going to be a fascinating game for the spoon.

 

[Robertio]

So a team that misses the 8 by percentage and lost 5 games by ~ 2 goals, is piss poor lol.

Youre funny. How bad does that make Carlton for missing the finals for 5 years straight?

Mate your been telling us for 3 months, yeah we've been shit and we know it but seems like dropping from 2nd to 12th is no big deal. When we pass you in 3 or 4 years imagine my middle finger.

 

[faible]

Looking at 2018 B+F results.

Carlton: Only 3 of the top 10 in their 2018 B+F will even be there in 2 years. They have a few quality players 30+, then Cripps, Curnow, Docherty (2 knees) and a bunch of high draft picks with real potential that have realistically shown not a lot. Automatic improvement is not simply a given with young kids, and listing a whole lot of high draft picks that have shown flashes does not simply translate into better results the following year.

1st - Patrick Cripps (166 votes)
2nd - Kade Simpson (108 votes) - 35 this year
3rd - Ed Curnow (98 votes) - 30 this year
3rd - Charlie Curnow (98 votes)
5th - Dale Thomas (71 votes) - 32 this year
6th - Liam Jones (48 votes) - 29 this year
7th - Zac Fisher (47 votes)
8th - Sam Rowe (43 votes) - gone
9th - Matthew Wright (39 votes) - retired
10th - Marc Murphy (39 votes) - 32 this year

GC: Yes they have lost Lynch and May but neither were top 10 B+F. Only one player over 30 in there, so that looks like a solid young nucleus to build around. Serious lack of star power in that group though, and losing Lynch and May has to hurt significantly.

1st: Jarrod Harbrow (390) - 31 this year
2nd – Touk Miller (351)
3rd – Lachie Weller (336)
4th – Rory Thompson (316)
5th – Alex Sexton (303)
6th – David Swallow (300)
7th – Aaron Young (261)
=8th – Jarrod Witts (251)
=8th – Nick Holman (251)
10th – Jack Martin (249)

To me it looks like ownership of the teams performance has been passed at GC to the younger players, while Carlton still look heavily reliant on their older players (and Cripps). Newish coaching setup and quite a few new players at GC too. That can always good for a few early wins. Plus they dont have to contend with the Comm Games this year which screwed them early in 2018. Considering the amount of Carltons list north of 30, and how many of their list have had interrupted pre-seasons, Carlton at $3.75 for least wins looks over the odds. They still probably finish above GC, but I reckon its closer than many people think.

Also again looking at the B+F, Cripps has won that by the length of Flemington Straight. If he gets injured, it could be a very very long year for Carlton.

Looking at those lists; GC have players like Holman and Young in the Top 10 who are little better than depth of any kind of competitive list.

Carlton has a handful of talented older guys, a lot of talented under 23's, and pretty much nothing in between, so it stands to reason that their B&F voting will be pretty messed up. I expect 2019 is the year we start to see Carlton's list correct itself, as 3rd and 4th year players start to be able to contribute meaningfully across a whole season. Cripps is a clear standout both as a talent, and having sufficient development and years in the system to showcase it. If Russell can get Kreuzer and Murphy through most of a season, and keep Simpson on the field, they should improve on 2018 given the development of younger players.

GC has a much 'better' group in their mid 20s but lack genuine star factor amongst them, and have almost no talented players around 30 given they keep leaving. I think GC might be less of a basket-case than they seem given guys like Swallow, Miles, Miller, Martin and Lyons are alll capable senior bodies, with Brodie and Bowes both now in to their 3rd season.

The Carlton v Gold Coast games are highly likely going to determine who finishes last, along with how well the Gold Coast KPPs can survive the season given they have no real apparent depth at either end now.

 

[jezzajay]

Looking at those lists; GC have players like Holman and Young in the Top 10 who are little better than depth of any kind of competitive list.

Carlton has a handful of talented older guys, a lot of talented under 23's, and pretty much nothing in between, so it stands to reason that their B&F voting will be pretty messed up. I expect 2019 is the year we start to see Carlton's list correct itself, as 3rd and 4th year players start to be able to contribute meaningfully across a whole season. Cripps is a clear standout both as a talent, and having sufficient development and years in the system to showcase it. If Russell can get Kreuzer and Murphy through most of a season, and keep Simpson on the field, they should improve on 2018 given the development of younger players.

GC has a much 'better' group in their mid 20s but lack genuine star factor amongst them, and have almost no talented players around 30 given they keep leaving. I think GC might be less of a basket-case than they seem given guys like Swallow, Miles, Miller, Martin and Lyons are alll capable senior bodies, with Brodie and Bowes both now in to their 3rd season.

The Carlton v Gold Coast games are highly likely going to determine who finishes last, along with how well the Gold Coast KPPs can survive the season given they have no real apparent depth at either end now.

Nice to see someone (neutral supporter) in here with some perspective rather than pure hate.

 

[Robertio]

I think what Carlton posters will learn which hasnt effected them as they havent had the need to do well in the H&A season for years is that a poor preseason truly stuffs up your H&A performances and as a player they are always playing catch up to get back to fitness compare to other players.

In Round 4, Suns have Luko and Rankine in their side which I would rate more than a lot of Carlton players. Its going to be a fascinating game for the spoon.

You can stop telling us what we need to know or learn, you don't know anything about Carlton. Looks like your own board is even getting sick of you.