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He'll certainly go up in price, not doubting that, but I reckon he'd have to go at around 85 for it to be a quick valuable rise rather than a slow burn.

Last 5 years he has gone 79, 77, 71, 82, 68. Those figures suggest he is naturally a 75 type player.

One thing going in his favour though is the story of Shannon Hurn last year. Like Smith, Hurn was always presumed to have fantasy potential given his role but never scored well until last year. Maybe Smith can do that

If there is a defender i'm going to take a risk on (possibly at D4) then its Pearce Hanley. 72 in his first year at GC, and 83, 89, 98, 85 in his previous 4 at the Lions. Thats proven scoring ability if he can get on the park.

That avi of yours drives me nuts and like creeps me out at the same time haha
 
He'll certainly go up in price, not doubting that, but I reckon he'd have to go at around 85 for it to be a quick valuable rise rather than a slow burn.

Last 5 years he has gone 79, 77, 71, 82, 68. Those figures suggest he is naturally a 75 type player.

One thing going in his favour though is the story of Shannon Hurn last year. Like Smith, Hurn was always presumed to have fantasy potential given his role but never scored well until last year. Maybe Smith can do that

If there is a defender i'm going to take a risk on (possibly at D4) then its Pearce Hanley. 72 in his first year at GC, and 83, 89, 98, 85 in his previous 4 at the Lions. Thats proven scoring ability if he can get on the park.

If you included the points for kick ins that Smith would have had in those years, he's probably averaging something like 85, 85, 80, 90, 75. And he was in great knick at the end of last year and is the ideal player to take kick ins. He's not as good as someone like Williams and not quite in my team but he's still a decent option.

Hanley's body is shot, Brisbane knew that when they traded him. And most of those years he was playing midfield when he got those scores, not half back. There's a chance he'll average 85+ for the first 6 rounds and not get injured and be a good stepping stone, but I'd say it's a 50/50 or worse chance. Maybe if he takes some kick ins and shows consistency he hasn't really shown for a few years.


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If you included the points for kick ins that Smith would have had in those years, he's probably averaging something like 85, 85, 80, 90, 75. And he was in great knick at the end of last year and is the ideal player to take kick ins. He's not as good as someone like Williams and not quite in my team but he's still a decent option.

Hanley's body is shot, Brisbane knew that when they traded him. And most of those years he was playing midfield when he got those scores, not half back. There's a chance he'll average 85+ for the first 6 rounds and not get injured and be a good stepping stone, but I'd say it's a 50/50 or worse chance. Maybe if he takes some kick ins and shows consistency he hasn't really shown for a few years.


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I can see Smith taking at least 5-10 kick ins each game, and I'd expect him to play on for at least 80% of them. That's 12-24 points. He's in my team
 
Kelly, Oliver, Coniglio, Cripps or Brayshaw?

I just can't decide!

I don't think you can go wrong with any of them. Of the group i think Kelly is the most susceptible to a tag, but his ceiling probably balances that.

I'd really like to hear peoples opinions on how 'starting positions' affects the role of the tagger? It's not something that I've heard discussed, but will teams really put a negative player in the middle of the ground, or will they back their stars to win from centre bounces?

Brodie Grundy commented on the Traders podcast that there were fewer stoppages around the ground in match simulation, so is there a reduced role for the full time tagger?

On a broader issue, do starting positions reduce the overall number of possessions if the idea is to free up play to kick to marking forwards?

Am I over thinking this?
 
I don't think you can go wrong with any of them. Of the group i think Kelly is the most susceptible to a tag, but his ceiling probably balances that.

I'd really like to hear peoples opinions on how 'starting positions' affects the role of the tagger? It's not something that I've heard discussed, but will teams really put a negative player in the middle of the ground, or will they back their stars to win from centre bounces?

Brodie Grundy commented on the Traders podcast that there were fewer stoppages around the ground in match simulation, so is there a reduced role for the full time tagger?

On a broader issue, do starting positions reduce the overall number of possessions if the idea is to free up play to kick to marking forwards?

Am I over thinking this?
Might be over-thinking it a little, given that it only happens after a goal is kicked. They're not doing starting positions every time there's a stoppage (I really hope they don't introduce that in the future). It could affect the forwards slightly, but mids and taggers will get the bulk of their possessions from stoppages around the ground. Could be a 5 point difference, if that, for some players. Can't see it having an impact on teams and their use of taggers. We're already talking about Scooter being used again in that role, after his first flawless pre-season in the last 5 years
 
Kelly, Oliver, Coniglio, Cripps or Brayshaw?

I just can't decide!
Kelly and Oliver most likely for a tag, with Cripps' scoring being slightly limited by taggers but his big body making it more difficult. For me it's about cost versus output and Bray has the ceiling and the discounted price. Probably order them like this:

Brayshaw
Cripps
Coniglio
********
Oliver/Kelly

Can't split Oliver and Kelly
 

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Do we have data on the amount of kick ins he was taking in previous years ?
i saw that something like that recently and buggered if i can remember where, try defenders on the supercoach forum.
Yeah almost certain it’s in the last few pages of the SuperCoach defender page. 10 would be a stretch for amount of kick ins he will take I think but can see it being 5-7 which is roughly about 50-60% of kick ins in a game
 
I think people need to be careful not to get carried away with picking players based on the kick in rule. No doubt the designated kickers will get a spike in points but i am not sure it will be as big as some may think.

1. Players won't take all the kick ins for their team

2. They will take some kick ins but won't play on from it

3. Any kick ins taken while the player is on the bench/not in position to take it etc.

I would expect maybe a 5-10 point increase max from the rule for most players and maybe some will go over that but i would not want to be banking on it.
 
I think people need to be careful not to get carried away with picking players based on the kick in rule. No doubt the designated kickers will get a spike in points but i am not sure it will be as big as some may think.

1. Players won't take all the kick ins for their team

2. They will take some kick ins but won't play on from it

3. Any kick ins taken while the player is on the bench/not in position to take it etc.

I would expect maybe a 5-10 point increase max from the rule for most players and maybe some will go over that but i would not want to be banking on it.
Agree, I think it's a promising boost to the defenders but i'm only using it to diffeentiate between similar players not relying on it for breakouts. OIt's why im going Lloyd over Laird but I wouldn't pick Luke Ryan purely off the kick in rule alone over someone like Zac williams who has consistenly proven to be a better scorer.
 
At the risk of being that guy that just shits on popular picks, whats the verdict on Zac Williams.
Had 2 seasons of 83 and 82, which is hardly premium level. Are people selecting him to be a keeper and 95+ average type? Would require a big step up in his game.

He's a bit awkwardly priced for mine. Definitely value like Smith, but to what extent ?
 
At the risk of being that guy that just shits on popular picks, whats the verdict on Zac Williams.
Had 2 seasons of 83 and 82, which is hardly premium level. Are people selecting him to be a keeper and 95+ average type? Would require a big step up in his game.

He's a bit awkwardly priced for mine. Definitely value like Smith, but to what extent ?
Im not picking him due to what you have just mentioned, being that hes undoubtedly undervalued but likely to average somewhere around 80-85. Chance to go higher but I'm banking on him not living up to expectation with a high ownership rate. If he hits 80-85 he makes money but its not the end of the world for me
 
At the risk of being that guy that just shits on popular picks, whats the verdict on Zac Williams.
Had 2 seasons of 83 and 82, which is hardly premium level. Are people selecting him to be a keeper and 95+ average type? Would require a big step up in his game.

He's a bit awkwardly priced for mine. Definitely value like Smith, but to what extent ?
I think he averages 90 up to the bye and gets traded.
 
Iv had Williams locked into my team since Fantasy opened. Out of all of the mid price defenders I think he will score the highest through the year. I reckon he will do at least 80 and will be an easy trade up to a premium.

I picked him for a breakout last year before he was injured.
 
Williams goes 80 minimum in my opinion. Whose your alternative? Smith and Birchall have even more question marks. He's not a keeper, he's a bloke that's going to make you 200k+ before trading for a genuine premium. Honestly, at 35% ownership, I'd say he's a lock. Should be double that.
 
Williams goes 80 minimum in my opinion. Whose your alternative? Smith and Birchall have even more question marks. He's not a keeper, he's a bloke that's going to make you 200k+ before trading for a genuine premium. Honestly, at 35% ownership, I'd say he's a lock. Should be double that.
I tend to agree, has a decent ceiling too.
 
Williams goes 80 minimum in my opinion. Whose your alternative? Smith and Birchall have even more question marks. He's not a keeper, he's a bloke that's going to make you 200k+ before trading for a genuine premium. Honestly, at 35% ownership, I'd say he's a lock. Should be double that.
If that's the case, then aren't you better off with a rookie earning the same and using that extra cash elsewhere? FWIW I have Williams and Smith in my team at mo, but if the JLT or early games throw up a good scoring cheap rook then I'll have to use a trade or two as corrections. Not sold yet.
Thinking Murray Doedee last year. Seriously looking at Gloria at the Pies as Murray's replacement.
 
If that's the case, then aren't you better off with a rookie earning the same and using that extra cash elsewhere? FWIW I have Williams and Smith in my team at mo, but if the JLT or early games throw up a good scoring cheap rook then I'll have to use a trade or two as corrections. Not sold yet.
Thinking Murray Doedee last year. Seriously looking at Gloria at the Pies as Murray's replacement.
No defender rookie is going to average close to Williams though. I'd be a whole lot more concerned with Brodie Smith than Williams as well. A good option would be to just combine the two for a Sicily and take a rookie on top if you're backing in the cheap defender depth I guess

Just something to chew on though, your team! :cool:
 

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