Opinion Commentary & Media III

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kangatime said:
pffft, old news
Click to expand...

Lol. So, after all this time it turns out that Kangatime is Brad Scott. It adds a whole new slant to the BBB thread. Next thing we’ll find out that Wild Bill is, in fact, Chris Scott!


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lockheed said:
Every AFL list rated, and premiers West Coast are seventh
From https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...s-west-coast-are-seventh-20190215-p50y21.html

Our spiel:
11. NORTH MELBOURNE

North Melbourne were one of the surprises of 2018 – they threatened to play finals for much of the season, only falling short at the final hurdle. Their improved performance came from a balanced and even spread of talent. While there's no doubting the star quality of Jack Ziebell, Shaun Higgins, Ben Brown and Ben Cunnington, it was the continued development of players such as Trent Dumont, Jed Anderson, Jye Simpkin and Luke Davies-Uniacke which provided hope for the future. The arrival of mature-age recruits in Jared Polec, Jasper Pittard, Aaron Hall and Dom Tyson will provide greater depth and flexibility through the midfield although more attacking options are needed with the retirement of Jarrad Waite. The Kangaroos still have some way to go but they have reversed their reliance on only a handful of players and will offer stern resistance.
Movement from 2018 rankings: up seven spots (18th)
Three-year projected list ranking (2022): 15th

The article is by Chris Pelchen, and his 8 are, in order: Richmond, Melbourne, Collingwood, Adelaide, GWS, Essendon, West Coast and Hawthorn.
Click to expand...

The Annual Media Know-It-All Assessment of North's List

Year 1: North has no "star power". Their unexpected good results last year were due to an even team performance.
Year 2: Ditto
Year 3: Ditto
Year 4: Senior player retirements and delistings
Year 5: North relied too heavily on their "star power" and will now struggle.
Year 6: North has no "star power". Their unexpected good results last year were due to an even team performance.
Year 7: Ditto
Year 8: Ditto
Year 9: Senior player retirements and delistings
Year 10: North relied too heavily on their "star power" and will now struggle.
Year 11: North has no "star power". Their unexpected good results last year were due to an even team performance.
Year 12: Ditto
Year 13: Ditto
Year 14: Senior player retirements and delistings
Year 15: North relied too heavily on their "star power" and will now struggle.
 
Jabba the Trump said:
The Annual Media Know-It-All Assessment of North's List

Year 1: North has no "star power". Their unexpected good results last year were due to an even team performance.
Year 2: Ditto
Year 3: Ditto
Year 4: Senior player retirements and delistings
Year 5: North relied too heavily on their "star power" and will now struggle.
Year 6: North has no "star power". Their unexpected good results last year were due to an even team performance.
Year 7: Ditto
Year 8: Ditto
Year 9: Senior player retirements and delistings
Year 10: North relied too heavily on their "star power" and will now struggle.
Year 11: North has no "star power". Their unexpected good results last year were due to an even team performance.
Year 12: Ditto
Year 13: Ditto
Year 14: Senior player retirements and delistings
Year 15: North relied too heavily on their "star power" and will now struggle.
Click to expand...

I read that all the way through. Like a good boy.
 
Jabba the Trump said:
The Annual Media Know-It-All Assessment of North's List

Year 1: North has no "star power". Their unexpected good results last year were due to an even team performance.
Year 2: Ditto
Year 3: Ditto
Year 4: Senior player retirements and delistings
Year 5: North relied too heavily on their "star power" and will now struggle.
Year 6: North has no "star power". Their unexpected good results last year were due to an even team performance.
Year 7: Ditto
Year 8: Ditto
Year 9: Senior player retirements and delistings
Year 10: North relied too heavily on their "star power" and will now struggle.
Year 11: North has no "star power". Their unexpected good results last year were due to an even team performance.
Year 12: Ditto
Year 13: Ditto
Year 14: Senior player retirements and delistings
Year 15: North relied too heavily on their "star power" and will now struggle.
Click to expand...

This is so true, it’s painful.


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shintemaster said:
I'd love to see someone put the time into doing some pre and post season ratings of these lists and predictions. Something like +1 point for every position an individual team finishes above or below your prediction. Lowest overall tally is best, be fascinating to see who is the most accurate but - what I suspect would be more obvious - is which teams are blind spots for commentators, both individually and across the board.
Click to expand...

Okay. Because I'm an idiot I decided to spend half an hour putting a rough spreadsheet together just to get a feel for things. I've taken a handful of "experts" and essentially done as above for season 2018 based on public predictions (mostly on SEN or the AFL website). Points to note:

- Pre finals ladder only, no allowance for finals results against the prediction, this is purely a H&A prediction "rater"
- No fancy weightings or anything applied although obviously one could do things such aspenalise more harshly the further from the final result the prediction was etc
- Lower score is better

For now I'll just post the headline results and any commentary. I'm no excel or statistics ninja so there's probably some much better and easier ways to do this as well as easier ways to manipulate the data.

The results for the 5 "experts" I chose randomly are as follows:
Nick Bowen - 82
Nick Dal Santo - 40
Plough - 66
Gary Lyon - 72
Rohan Connolly - 72
Tim Watson - 72

First thing that is obvious is that NDS knocked it out of the park. His results are significantly better than the other 5 (from what I can see primarily based of accurately predicting West Coast in 2nd place and placing North significantly higher than most others as well as more generous ratings for Collingwood compared to the others.

NDS also has 5 tips absolutely spot on, next best is Watson with 3. In fact NDS had 8 teams in total within 1 place of their final position. Total numbers selected within 1 position of their final place:
NDS - 8
Connolly - 6
Watson - 6
Bowen - 5
Plough - 3
Lyon - 3

The other thing that seems obvious in hindsight is that Gary Lyon and Tim Watson have been hanging out too much and are as dopey as each other. Interesting to see if their results are similar this year and whether being in an echo chamber together each day might skew their opinions towards similar results. Plough was a surprise with 66 which seems a decent result although when you break down his figures he's made largely the same errors as far as teams that would perform well - it's just that he's been a bit closer to the pin for some of them. ie. He rated Adelaide 4th, North 14th & West Coast 15th which isn't far off the results of the others.

Average "variance" from final position
NDS - 2.22
Plough - 3.67
Lyon, Connolly, Watson - 4
Bowen - 4.56

Below is a list of the teams (in ladder order) with their "rating" against predictions (ie. negative = overrated in predictions, positive = underrated in predictions)
Richmond -6
West Coast -48
Collingwood -50
Hawthorn -38
Melbourne 0
Sydney 14
GWS 17
Geelong 9
North Melbourne -32
Port Adelaide 31
Essendon 12
Adelaide 49
Western Bulldogs 16
Fremantle -3
Brisbane -6
St Kilda 19
Gold Coast 5
Carlton 11

Based on this West Coast, Collingwood, Hawthorn & North Melbourne were all significantly underrated against their ability. The two Adelaide based teams were the big underachievers and then a smattering or teams that delivered below expectations in order from most to least - St Kilda, GWS, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Essendon, Carlton. Below this the remaining teams arguably performed "as expected". Still, that is only 6 teams that performed on average within 2 places of the prediction of the 5 commentators.

There's likely a heap more that could be drawn out of these figures, however an interesting exercise overall. Be curious to do a comparison this year and see whether people react strongly to teams performing outside of their predictions or whether fundamentally the ladder results the year before make more difference.
 
Last edited:
Firestarter said:
Yikes. Bowen is significantly behind the pack.
Click to expand...

Admittedly only one year. I'd imagine we all have our blind spots and biases with specific teams, if that one team happens to perform completely against your bias it is going to hurt your results massively. Over a few years we might be able to pick some trends with individuals and their ratings of teams. It's a small sample of predictions as well. You are right though, his predictions on average 4.5+ away from the final result at face value is pretty far from the pin. A brave man might go back and look at their own predictions in the same way...
 

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