Preview Round 3: Changes/prematch discussion vs Hawthorn

[shinboner spiggs]

One final number, but in the 13 games we've played without Paul Ahern these last two years we've somehow only won 41.29% of our centre clearances. The lowest non North Melbourne side last year were the Adelaide Crows, who won 48.02% of their clearances.

In those 13 games we only won the centre clearance count once. We should probably look at getting Paul back in the side.

I’m struggling to remember back to those games but generally Jacobs tags centre square on ballers, and obviously Cunnington spends his vast majority on ball, so our most successful must be the: Ahern Cunners Jacobs combo.

LDU could easily swap solely with Ahern and rotate forward where both can learn forward craft. Can throw in Higgins in but needs to be a lot less frequently. Jed will need to play the Jacobs role currently, but should rotate with Jacobs if they ever play together. And then rotate in others when cunners spends time on the pine. This midfield on paper and age wise could really be a position of strength, but whether Scott can harness its potential? Guilty until proven innocent for Brad.

 

[HTPunter]

Just read 3 pages of proposed omissions, and struggle to see how no one puts Goldy in the discussion. Was abysmal today, got monstered, bullied and showed zero fight.
Would be the first one out with Luke and I guess Jy going with him.

In: Preuss

???

**** it

 

[The Nostradamus]

Keep it simple
Ahern and Murphy in
Jy and Macmillan out

 

[Grogg]

That’s messed up... name and shame please.

Brown, Goldstein, Higgins, McKay, Pittard.

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/games/2019/121920190331.html

The real worry is the total.

38 is appalling.

 

[Uber Roo]

Keep it simple
Ahern and Murphy in
Jy and Macmillan out

Not Mc Donald?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[The Nostradamus]

Not Mc Donald?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Nope

 

[Billy Not Really]

Ok so here's the full breakdown of our clearances. These numbers are just the percentage of total clearances won, the number in brackets is where that would rank over the 2018 season. Most interesting part is the numbers for when both Paul Ahern and Ben Jacobs play, as we're actually elite in those three games (against the Lions, Cats and Suns if you were interested).

All of 2018 and 2019 (24 Games)
Overall: 48.76% (15th)
Centre: 46.82% (18th)
Stoppage: 49.91% (8th)

Ben Cunnington, Jed Anderson, Shaun Higgins and Ben Jacobs (11 games)
Overall: 50% (7th)
Centre: 45.31% (18th)
Stoppage: 52.17% (4th)

Ben Cunnington, Jed Anderson, Shaun Higgins and Paul Ahern (9 games)
Overall: 49.36% (13th)
Centre: 53.61% (3rd)
Stoppage: 46.24% (17th)

Jed Anderson Total (21 Games)
Overall: 48.76% (15th)
Centre: 47.33% (18th)
Stoppage: 49.58% (11th)

Ben Jacobs Total (13 games)
Overall: 50.16% (8th)
Centre: 46.08% (18th)
Stoppage: 52.12% (4th)

Paul Ahern Total (11 games)
Overall: 49.15% (=13th)
Centre: 52.2% (3rd)
Stoppage: 46.98% (17th)

Paul Ahern and Ben Jacobs (3 games)
Overall: 52.53% (2nd)
Centre: 57.32% (1st)
Stoppage: 49.63% (11th)

EDIT: I initially worked out the % as an average of each games %, not the % of the total clearances won/conceded throughout the year. So each stat was very slightly off and a few rankings have changed by one or two because of it.

That Paul Ahern and Ben Jacobs part is fascinating. As well as them isolated. Seems Anderson has an impact, but not as much as these two.

Remarkable stat really. Our entire centre clearance is now relied upon a bloke who can't get selected right now and a guy who can't even get on the park.

We're in some strife.

 

[HTPunter]

Not seeing anywhere near enough out Atley in here

Why bother? 178 games of middling mediocrity and counting. 1 career Brownlow vote as far as I know. Best finish in the Syd Barker is 10th (twice). Makes me foam at the mouth the free ride he and McDonald get. Such low standards for a good game for fans to love them for months (Atley skiing v Carlton in Hobart had heaps here frothing). Seemingly no coach-lead accountability for poor performances and middling mediocrity.

Atley has years of 23, 22, 25, 23, 25, 22, 22 games since 2012. Barely ever injured. No excuses.

Another Brad Scott special. Add him to the list of Scott McMahon, Ryan Bastinac, even Lachie Hansen types who are just so limited but really takes Scott a while to see the light.

So why bother? Atley out? Unlikely.

Ideally Atley, Tyson, McDonald, Goldy all go out but that's not gonna happen. Goldy needs to stay because he is our best ruck. Atley/Tyson/McDonald are far too average to be dropped.

You don't drop very average players who will never take your side anywhere
Brad ScottTM

Out: Tyson, McDonald, Atley
In: Ahern, Dumont, Murphy

Hopefully.

 

[HTPunter]

Anderson in if fit. Can come in for Simpkin.

4 changes for a side 0-2 that has been comprehensively outplayed in 6 of 8 quarters for 1 unforced change so far is more than fair. EVW and Dumont only out for injury. There needs to be spot accountability. There hasn't been for a decade under Scott. It's broken, we aren't winning a flag, change it. Fix it.

 

[Sheezel2Wardlaw]

Out: Simpkin, Atley & Turner

In: Ahern, Dumont & Zurhaar

 

[danj]

It is hard to remain focused on the fact that this is a pre match discussion thread because it has (understandably) morphed into a 'pre exit brad scott and why he should go thread' which is fine by me (read the bye bye BS thread)

So as far as this game goes I would love to see our team win.

Anyone who purports to be a NMFC supporter and doesn't want us to win is not a NMFC supporter, simples.

I have never tipped against NMFC ever regardless of how low times got.

Until this year.

So far I'm 2 from 2 tipping against North, it doesn't feel good but i am doing well in my tipping comp.

This match against Hawthorn I want us to win and will be at the game, barracking my guts out and ecstatic if we do win.

But we won't.

I'm not a rat n stats man, I am a passion and soul man. The boys have not got the passion and the coach does not have the soul. Hawthorn do.

They will refuse to be disgraced twice in a row on the hallowed turf of the MCG.

Their coach has the soul to drive the passion their playing group possess's to overcome the embarrassment of succumbing to the doggies. We do not have the depth of either measure to match them and to beat them.

I wish it was otherwise and will happily eat my post if we win however I suspect I will be chalking up another win in the tipping comp.

Go North! (Please give us something)

 

[Yoko and me]

A lot of it is just having the right personnel. Clarkson has done a great job using guys like Sicily, Scrimshaw, Stratton and Hardwick to cut the ball off as often as possible.

I didn't get a chance to see their game last week due to it clashing with ours, but as 99% of their scores were from turnovers they were clearly doing something right.

Losing?
Not scoring from centre square clearances?
Fading for a quarter?

What they were doing right didn't seem very powerful

99% of scores from turnovers is like dancing with your sister and then telling your mates you picked up.

Belt these clowns. We will click soon. GG was right. Big Tom will kick eight this week ala David Hale.

LDU will kick four due to coaching staffs agreed use of him leaving his man for Ahern to defend as he chances his arm on the turnover and rushes forward as we gain possession.

Communication is lacking now and round one was a shit storm due to variable conditions.

Turner is still eating a position a footballer could take. McDonald is our own Frankenstein. Tyson was traded for depth and is depth. Will be handy in rainy outside games. Play someone fast (zurhaar) instead of Tyson on Docklands stadium. Play Larkey in his natural position which is a smart but light forward, starting at centre half forward and kick it to him a few times short from the centre square. Have a forward rover and an Atley ready to read the contest.

Things will open up for Brown (who also has a Ziebell beside him to block and a Garner/zurhaar to run angles as BBB sure under the long kick. Campbell or Goldstein rest forward and brown takes the CHF role?

 

[Yoko and me]

I’m struggling to remember back to those games but generally Jacobs tags centre square on ballers, and obviously Cunnington spends his vast majority on ball, so our most successful must be the: Ahern Cunners Jacobs combo.

LDU could easily swap solely with Ahern and rotate forward where both can learn forward craft. Can throw in Higgins in but needs to be a lot less frequently. Jed will need to play the Jacobs role currently, but should rotate with Jacobs if they ever play together. And then rotate in others when cunners spends time on the pine. This midfield on paper and age wise could really be a position of strength, but whether Scott can harness its potential? Guilty until proven innocent for Brad.

Agree with what your saying shinboner Spriggs.

Don't mean to be rude to people doing stats but isn't this discussion about the game this year under the new rules? There is very little to be gained from last year's clearance statistics imho. There were different factors at play then.

I see the problem as being to many big dogs. Someone has to be close to a player and then float off the back to defend if not in the contest. Hall and polec on wings at the same time are not good unless we are dominating clearances. One of the wingers should be running to fill that hole between the square and the defensive fifty line.

That space is what we are not defending at all from centre bounces. And we are in too many centre square bounces.

We need to gel and when we do...
We will see something

And if not. 5 and 0 should mean old coachy go from future plans.

But it is two weeks gone!

All of you with your threats of retracting financial support for the club, watch a game with a Fitzroy supporter with no team to get passionate about (there are pretty around if you can coax them out) and get some perspective

 

[Samsquanch]

The professional coaches have all the stats - we should leave it to them to ensure we actually finish 18th in centre clearances every week!

Talk about glass half empty.

I prefer to say we aim to be #1 in least clearances.

It's all about perspective.

 

[Grogg]

This shit does nothing for my mental health.
Hate is such an emotion fueled word and not appropriate here but the distaste I have for the non selection of Ahern, considering our number one weakness is in the middle of the ground has knocked me.
I don’t get it. I just don’t and I don’t know any better. No campaigner on here does. It’s madness

Some dude dropped the "off field" bomb a few days ago on here.

Asked politely for a pm....

 

[ferball]

Some dude dropped the "off field" bomb a few days ago on here.

Asked politely for a pm....

I did wonder how that went. ATM I'm going with "Nothing to see here."

 

[goalieboy82]

lets hope the third time is the charm for this season:
Scamper, My little Geelong Cat:

Meows the following:

 

[domiroo]

Keep it simple
Ahern and Murphy in
Jy and Macmillan out

How about MacDonald he is just terrible Tyson is bad Symkin horrible Mackay maybe gets another chance ..

 

[Grogg]

I did wonder how that went. ATM I'm going with "Nothing to see here."

Yeah donuts, so I'm taking that to mean nothing 2c too.

 

[Friday Night Lights]

In: Ahern, Murphy, Anderson

Out: McDonald, Simpkin, Tyson

In reality Brad will bring back Dumont before Ahern. Doubtful he’ll drop McDonald but we are crying out for Murphy’s ball use off half back.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Yeah donuts, so I'm taking that to mean nothing 2c too.

The off-field indiscretion call is completely unsupported by the facts. Ahern was game day emergency in Rd1, and selected emergency who played a full VFL game in Rd2. None of that is a disciplinary measure.

Some people are over-thinking it - it was a selection f***-up (x2).

 

[shintemaster]

The off-field indiscretion call is completely unsupported by the facts. Ahern was game day emergency in Rd1, and selected emergency who played a full VFL game in Rd2. None of that is a disciplinary measure.

Some people are over-thinking it - it was a selection f***-up (x2).

Go for 3?

Agree completely. To be blunt, I'd prefer Higgins plays a defensive role in the middle to cover Ahern rather than Ahern missing. He wins more clearances in the centre - just doesn't look as flashy doing so.

 

[ferball]

Dunno if Higgo's up to it (too attacking a mindset imo) but yeah I agree with the principle.

 

[remfan101]

Over the next 2 weeks (dependant on fitness) we should be making 4 changes:

In: Anderson, Ahern, Wright, Dumont
Out: Simpkin, McDonald, Tyson, Thomas/Turner

Leaving us with this (much improved) 22

Williams - Tarrant - McKay
Wright - Thompson - Pittard
Polec - Cunnington - Dumont
Higgins - Campbell - Hall
Ziebell - Brown - TT/Turner

Goldstein - Anderson - LDU

Int: Ahern, MacMillan, Scott, Atley

 

[shinboner spiggs]

Williams - Tarrant - McKay
Wright - Thompson - Pittard
Polec - Cunnington - Dumont
Higgins - Campbell - Hall
Ziebell - Brown - TT/Turner

Goldstein - Anderson - LDU

Int: Ahern, MacMillan, Scott, Atley

Im refusing to write this season off just yet as ^that on paper is a very good football team. Whether its utilised to its potential will be very interesting.