Predict the results of the 2019 Federal Election

[Sainteric]

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...key-senate-crossbenchers-20190410-p51cz1.html

Centre alliance won't pass the super tax unless it's grandfathered or the negative gearing prefering a maximum amount of property to be negative geared or raising the top tax limit. Seems the green coalition is back to square 1.

 

[Sainteric]

I don't think Kooyong's average age is that high and I haven seen any policy to reduce financial assistance to private schools, and if those voters are swinging I suspect they will be going to Yates or Burnside before the ALP. There are a large number of state schools in Kooyong which is difference than the seat of Higgins that has only a handful of state schools.

Kooyongs not a marginal seat average age of electorate is 40. Bill has said he will move funding from private to public schools.

Secondary private students
Kew 81%
Hawthorn 81%
Camberwell 71% etc

 

[Sainteric]

The rich electorates coming into play for the ALP aren't purely because of economic reasons. Hint - look at the Greens vote in those electorates.

If Labor win government they would find it far more palatable to deal with just the Greens than a smattering across the spectrum (like the current Senate make-up) with deals needed to be made with Centre Alliance, One Nation, KAP, UAP etc, so an outcome where they win government and need just the Greens in the Senate to pass legislation is a huge win, make no mistake.

Most of them will be gone except for CA and Hanson herself depends how the parties preference. The Greens and the Alp will need 38 seats given they are down by 2 or 3 already in who's left that's going to be a big ask

 

[Pessimistic]

Assuming alot of the marginal liberal seats have solar pannels on their roof, but you think most punters understand the neg, or are they more likely to believe more renewables less baseload power equals higher prices.

That’s the point. It’s fryzo best work. He believes it and all the stakeholders are on board. It was an absolut scandal that after everyone did so much work, a couple of troglodytes scuppered it. Not only that knifed Turnbull too

 

[Pessimistic]

Most of them will be gone except for CA and Hanson herself depends how the parties preference. The Greens and the Alp will need 38 seats given they are down by 2 or 3 already in who's left that's going to be a big ask

I’m detecting you are hankering for more years of ineffective governance? For why?

 

[Jascave]

Watching the YouTube video I posted above re the 1983 federal election night coverage by Channels 9 & 10 brings back memories of the National Tally Room in Canberra, where manual scoreboards would show results of seats across Australia. Who could ever forget the roar of the crowd back in 2007 when the results from the seat of Bennelong came up and it showed former PM John Howard being defeated by Maxine McKew.


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Vote Compass is back, hopefully they'll release some of the data throughout the campaign:

https://votecompass.abc.net.au/


I ended up about where I expected:

 

[Fat Yak]

 

[Pie eyed]

View attachment 652433

A Liberal Government will put you in detention.

 

[GreyCrow]

Ok Here is where Shortens problems are

The seats that are in play for Labor in NSW and Vermont sorry Victoria have an average demographic age of 55 years and reasonable wealthy. Shortens key policies of increasing tax on super and stop negative gearing on houses are going to hurt them , combined with reducing funds to private school in places like Kooyong won't help either.

So basically I think the alp will have to pick up seats elsewhere, Qld is definately a problem for the Libs

If the ALP win, with a very average leader and pretty ordinary policies they will still probably win but 20 seat majority is a bit over the top.

The Senate is a bigger problem forgetting about the territories

Libs/Nat's 13 senators up. 17 stay Inc Cory B
Alp. 11 up 14 stay
Greens 7 up 3 stay
Ind 6 up 3 stay

Of the independents staying one is Hanson and the other is 2 centre alliance. So on most issues centre right 20 to left 17. It means Labor will have to win well to get a majority all they will beholden to the greens or may not even gain a majority at all.

20 seat majority and the Greens are side players

Worry about the split in the LNP that will see them out of office for a generation

 

[GreyCrow]

View attachment 652433

A Liberal government already has

 

[Forward Press]

A Liberal Government will put you in detention.

I like the implication that in the past six years of the Liberal government we haven't been in debt.

 

[Badesumofu]

 

[DaRick]

I should be a little more to the left economically because I align with the Greens' policy on Newstart more than that of the ALP.

I also might have been a little conservative in some of my responses (selecting 'somewhat' when I really could have said 'much').

I expected myself to rank as the barest of social conservatives, not as the barest of social progressives. Maybe I've been spending too much time on this forum.

 

[Maggie5]

View attachment 652507

I should be a little more to the left economically because I align with the Greens' policy on Newstart more than that of the ALP.

I also might have been a little conservative in some of my responses (selecting 'somewhat' when I really could have said 'much').

I expected myself to rank as the barest of social conservatives, not as the barest of social progressives. Maybe I've been spending too much time on this forum.

I would be more worried about that 36% for ON.

 

[DaRick]

I would be more worried about that 36% for ON.

May be for a couple of reasons:

1) ON being more likely to take extreme, random views, rather than predictably centre-right/left views (both ON and I strongly disagree with slashing penalty rates, for instance).

2) I was a bit too conservative in some of my responses, because 'somewhat' vs 'much' is a bit subjective. So my views look closer to ON than they really are.

My ON percentage should probably be around 33% or thereabouts.

 

[Badesumofu]

Apparently PHON want to restore Sunday penalty rates and support voluntary euthanasia. So there you go.

 

[Forward Press]

Yeah One Nation is all over the place and this is shown in the support they draw from both ex-Lib and ex-ALP voters.

I guess 'protectionist' might be a good term if you want to sum up their political philosophy in one word. Very anti-immigration but very pro-lower class.

 

[Bombermania]

Not really a surprise

 

[NSWCROW]

 

[Bombermania]

Apparently PHON want to restore Sunday penalty rates and support voluntary euthanasia. So there you go.

A broken clock is right twice a day.

 

[DaRick]

Not really a surprise

View attachment 652555

It's odd how our political persuasions are almost the same, yet my views align with the Greens/ALP more than yours do.

Maybe I hold a few 'unusual' positions relative to these four parties.

 

[Bombermania]

It's odd how our political persuasions are almost the same, yet my views align with the Greens/ALP more than yours do.

Maybe I hold a few 'unusual' positions relative to these four parties.

With these surveys it often comes down to whether you tick somewhat or totally agree or disagree and I tend to tick a few neutrals that tend to drag the result towards the centre.

 

[nobbyiscool]

I think I broke the compass. This shocked me, and I have no intention of voting for the Greens (although to be honest it's probably less about policy and more about party machinations.)

What likely caused this result is that I don't really feel "somewhat" anything - whatever my views, I believe them very strongly, which is what results in the extremity of this result.

 

[Maggie5]

I see now why ON is high for me too, quite surprised me though. Might do it again closer to election.