2002 AFL odds!

[Dan26]

Originally posted by Roylion
Brisbane have earned the right to be 2002 premiership favorites over Essendon at this point in time on a number of counts.

1) They are the reigning premiers, defeating Essendon.
2) They won more games than Essendon, during the season, 20 to 19.
3) They have defeated Essendon twice, both in Brisbane and in Melbourne by a combined total of 54 points.
4) The Lions have the form, winning our last 16 straight, a feat bettered by only 6 teams in VFL/AFL history. Since that winning streak began in Round 10 (against Essendon) we have had the number 1 attack scoring 118 points per game and the equal No. 1 defence with Sydney conceding 78 points per game. Brisbane have the motivation to continue the winning streak as long as possible. (23 is the record)
5) Brisbane have not lost any premiership players, and only one fringe premiership players (Matthew Kennedy) whereas Essendon has lost from their Grand Final side the very good Damien Hardwicke and ruckman John Barnes (who has been replaced by the ageing Paul Salmon).
6) The Lions defeated every other side, during the year except for Carlton (who finished 5th) and Adelaide (who finished 8th). Essendon defeated every side in 2001 except Carlton (whom they lost to twice) and Brisbane (whom they lost to twice).
7) The Lions have very few injury problems over the summer, apart from Clark Keating. Nearly all are doing full pre-seasons.
8) Premiership Hangovers are by no means a certainty. After all Essendon didn’t experience one this year in 2001. The great Hawthorn sides of the later eighties and nineties didn’t experience them very often either. Already Brad Scott, Daryl White and Michael Voss have expressed a wish to experience more success in 2002.



This is a matter of opinion. Why couldn't you possibly expect the Lions to do better than the 20-5 they accomplished? Why couldn't the Lions better their 2001 achievement by winning more games?

Look Roylion, we can analyse hypothetical opinions for hours.

My gut feeling tells me, that if I had to choose one of Brisbane and Essendon for the premieship in 2002, Essendon would be my choice (unbiasely.)

Whilst non-Victorian sides have been able to win on the MCG on Grand Final day, the fact remains they have to come to Melbourne to do it, which is still difficult. The fact that they accomplished this in 2001 is irrelevant to 2002.

It is simply my opinion that Brisbane played to their best in 2001 Sure they had a few poor games early on, but that is to be expected from any side. On the whole, one would have to say that Brisbane played to their maximum potential in 2001

I don't think Essendon played to their potential. I think we have more scope for improvement than Brisbane (just my opinion.) Judging playing-list quality is always full of conjecture, but I still feel that our list is the stongest in the AFL.

Brisbane might have earnt premiership favouritism in 2002 - fair enough. But that is for the mugs. The smart punters will bet on the Bombers. I can't justify that other than to ask for you to wait until Grand Final day 2002. It's just that feeling you get when you see a team over the odds, but you know deep down they are really favourites. That's how I feel with Essendon. I know Brisbane have earnt their favouritism, and deserve their favouritism, but the Bombers are still my most likely team to back if you want a likely flag-winner.

Essendon are a successful club with a history of bouncing back, a stong list, an MCG Grand Final, and most importantly, the Dan26 stamp of approval Your everyday person is the street might tip Brisbane, but the smart punters will take the long-odds on Essendon, until the Bombers inevitably become favourites again.

Originally posted by Roylion
Didn't you say also Dan, before the Grand Final that the Lions had no chance of winning the AFL premiership against Essendon.

Don't remind me.

2002 is a new year.

 

[Macca19]

Originally posted by Dan26

My gut feeling tells me, that if I had to choose one of Brisbane and Essendon for the premieship in 2002, Essendon would be my choice (unbiasely.)

Yes thats so believable

 

[kirky]

Well, the odds are right Dan25, Brisbane are the deserved flag favourites. They won the bloody cup, 16 games won in a row, a very talented midfield, good competent ruckman, 12 games in Brisbane each year, where they were nearly unbeatable last year (lost only one game to Adelaide by leass than a kick). The competition is set up that you the door is only open to a limited number of opportunities to take out the cup and Essendon have had 3 chances in the past 3 years and only come away with it once (56 wins from 66 games exc finals). Still if you want to have delusions that the Bombers are better, so be it, but personally your time of rule is ending.

The most fascinating stat over the past few years, there have been 3 teams that miss the finals the following year. Now I know probably Adelaide and Sydney are the logical ones however:-

Brisbane - Not likely
Essendon - Again not likely (but I wish would be so)
Hawthorn - Possibly but not likely
Richmond - Definite possibility (big headed players)
Port Adelaide - Possibly but less likely than Hawthorn
Carlton - Definite prospect
Sydney - Equal favourite
Adelaide - Same as Sydney

But as I said, a surprise will occur out of the above.

 

[ok.crows]

Originally posted by Worm4

The real odd's should be this :





Essendon - $3.50


Brisbane - $4.00


Carlton - $8.00


Richmond - $10.00


Port Adelaide - $10.00


Hawthorn - $15.00


Collingwood - $33.00


Sydney - $33.00





The rest should look something like this





West Coast - betting suspended


Fremantle - betting suspended


Adelaide - $500.00


Geelong - $1,000.00


Bulldogs - $1,000.00


Geelong - $1,000.00


Melbourne - $1,000.00


North Melbourne - $1,000.00








Realistically, these sides will not possibly win the flag and don't have the personel to compete with the top eight rated sides on a consistent basis.





Sure to bring up some controversy, but at least it's my honest opinion !





Why bother posting a market for any West Australian side to begin with. Are the bookies fairdinkum ?

Wow, $500 odds for Adelaide, a top 8 rated side this year, and one that won 5 games out of 11 against other top 8 sides, and amongst its players includes 4 who have earned multiple all-australian selection, including the current brownlow runner-up!



Sounds like a team reasonably consistently competitive with top eight rated sides and also seems to have top-notch personel.



That sounds wonderfully attractive odds to me! Such a pity I don't bet.

Also, who would possibly consider a bet on Pies at $33 when they can get Adelaide, who played better, at $500 ? You would have to be bonkers to prefer a bet on Pies.

 

[Blues2001]

Originally posted by GoEagles
Blues2001 - who/what on earth is that in your avatar? It looks really 80s!!!

It's Colin Matthews from the TV show Press Gang. I think the series that the photo was taken in was made in 1991, so you weren't far off

 

[The Starchild]

If Essendon had a sweet injury-free run in 2001 like Brisbane did I reckon they'd have beaten them in the GF. For that reason I think they should be fav's for 2002.

Being a supporter of a team that beat both of them in 2001, I don't give up hope of toppling both again and being a serious contender for the flag.

 

[Worm4]

Me thinks there a a couple of dillusional crows supporters in here.

Can the finish in the top 4 and gain a home ground advantage come september ? No

Can they mount a challenge for the flag ? No

If anyone cares to bet on the crows for the flag, I'll be happy to oblige !

I'll also offer one on one betting i.e.- who'll finish higher between Collingwood and Adelaide. Odds stand at this :

Collingwood : $1.20
Adelaide : $2.00

Who wants in ?

 

[ok.crows]

Originally posted by Worm4
Me thinks there a a couple of dillusional crows supporters in here.

Can the finish in the top 4 and gain a home ground advantage come september ? No

Can they mount a challenge for the flag ? No

If anyone cares to bet on the crows for the flag, I'll be happy to oblige !

I'll also offer one on one betting i.e.- who'll finish higher between Collingwood and Adelaide. Odds stand at this :

Collingwood : $1.20
Adelaide : $2.00

Who wants in ?

That is a long way short of what you were offering before!

You were offering $500 to 1 - so will you take a bet of $50 for a return of $25,000 if Crows win the flag?

In answer to your other questions - Crows can gain a first round advantage - they could have this year if they had approached the last game properly.

Can Crows get a top four spot - why not, they were only two or three wins short of one this year! Given that Crows were erratic - able to beat top sides but threw away games against lower sides - all they need to do is stabilise a little. Learn to not lose the winnable easy games that they lost this year. Kick a bit straighter.

It should all be achieveable given that our younger squad members will have gained experience.

As for Crows doing better than Collingwood - why not? Should be a no-brainer. Crows have the better squad, the better form, have recrruited a few ready made players against Collingwoods none, and have done better than Collingwood have each year for the past five years.

BTW - This year Collingwoods record against the top sides was ordinary - a lot more so than was Adelaides. It was Collingwood, not Adelaide, found wanting when playing good opposition. Adelaide were simply erratic - should be fixed as they gain experience. Anyone with even an ounce of common sense would tip Crows to finish higher than Pies again next season.

 

[Portia]

Originally posted by ok.crows
Can Crows get a top four spot - why not, they were only two or three wins short of one this year! Given that Crows were erratic - able to beat top sides but threw away games against lower sides - all they need to do is stabilise a little. Learn to not lose the winnable easy games that they lost this year. Kick a bit straighter.

They were only two or three wins ahead of 12th this year too....does that factor in to your predictions? And stabilizing can work both ways...on average, you're still an average side. Unless you mean for them to stabilize on the level of their best form, which is pretty damn unlikely or every club would do it.

deja vu

 

[Jars458]

Originally posted by Porthos
They were only two or three wins ahead of 12th this year too....does that factor in to your predictions? And stabilizing can work both ways...on average, you're still an average side. Unless you mean for them to stabilize on the level of their best form, which is pretty damn unlikely or every club would do it.

deja vu

In that case Port played welll above themselves this year and won't make the eight

ie the year before is a truer indication???

Who knows though


You are right -- it could work either way

Crows led the league in First possessions last year and were only slightly behind the Lions in Inside 50's

ie - we got the ball first and used it effieceintly - until we got to the forward line

That's the bottom line - we need to kick more goals

Whether Fitzy and Schell can provide the answer and Perrie and Welsh and Bode etc can improve enought remains to be seen

Covering for the loss of Jarman and to a lesser extent Vardy will be antoher problem.

McLeod cold play up forward a lot more if Riccutio is back to his best.


No-one really knows at this stage

So Porthos - we know you don't like us, but lets face it anything can happen and often does.

 

[Portia]

Originally posted by Jars458


In that case Port played welll above themselves this year and won't make the eight

That wasn't the comparison.....ok crows is taking only the Crows best games, and reckons that if the Crows stabilize, it would be to that level. Which would be akin to me taking Port's best games, and assuming that as the constant level.

So Porthos - we know you don't like us, but lets face it anything can happen and often does.

Yeah, anything can happen. Its just dodgy that ok.crows keeps saying Adelaide -will- finish better when they're really at the same level as a bunch of other clubs. These points gets conceded, and then in the next thread, crows are going to be top 4 again....

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Wormy - What's dillusional about the points I was making? Be a little more specific. I didn't mention the Crows were favourites to make the top 4 (In my previous reply I rank Brisbane, Essendon, Hawks & Power). I was questioning your relativities - ie. how you could possibly have Carlton @ $8 - nearly twice as likely in your opinion to win the flag than the Hawks @ $15 & 62.5 times more likely than the Crows to win the flag!!! I reckon that is dillusional. If your serious about 500-1 odds for the Crows, I'm sure you will get many takers from Adelaide supporters.

Whilst I don't have the Crows in my projected top 4 for 2002, it is not an unreasonable suggestion based on their form in the last third of this season to say a top 4 spot in 2002 is obtainable. Who is to say one of these teams might not struggle with injury or form or a premiership hangover in 2002. There are probably only 4 teams IMO who cannot make the top 4 in 2002 (Geelong, West Coast, Freo & St Kilda).

Also, whilst it helps, you don't need to make the top 4 to win the flag. The Crows have demonstrated this in the past. It is more important to have a good run of form.

I personally rate Collingwood about the same chances of making the eight / winning the flag (not 15 times more likely!). It would be interesting to know what Centrebet's odds are.

 

[ok.crows]

Originally posted by Porthos
They were only two or three wins ahead of 12th this year too....does that factor in to your predictions? And stabilizing can work both ways...on average, you're still an average side. Unless you mean for them to stabilize on the level of their best form, which is pretty damn unlikely or every club would do it.

deja vu

This might seem reasonable, but it is not really. Just have a think for a moment about it.

Given the results of this year and the relative ability of the opposition it seems that Adelaide were able to win against good opposition at times, yet failed against weaker sides as well.

In contrast, Collingwood did almost as well as Crows overall, but had a poor record against stronger sides and a fairly consistent winning record against weaker sides.

In short, what I am saying is that Collingwood have stabilised at a mediocre level.

While it is true that Crows could "rupture", it is also true that they could "burn". They seem to have the capacity to do either, this year they managed both in the one season!

However, given that it is the prime aim of everyone at AFC to improve, and a concerted effort by many many people is being made to achieve that improvement, then this is surely the most likely direction in which Crows are heading.

They have a proven capacity to play well, and a record of inconsistency, coupled with a youngish and inexperienced squad (which improved even over the course of this year as it gained experience) and a fierce determination to improve.

Thats a far better position to be in than Pies, a side with a proven record of incompetence, only just raising that this year to proven mediocrity.

So Porthos can you see this at all, or are you going to insist that it is bunk. If you go for the "bunk" line - just recall as you do so the optimism shown by Port fans for 2001 based on the improvements Port made in the last seven or so games in 2000.

 

[ok.crows]

Originally posted by Porthos
That wasn't the comparison.....ok crows is taking only the Crows best games, and reckons that if the Crows stabilize, it would be to that level. Which would be akin to me taking Port's best games, and assuming that as the constant level.

Yeah, anything can happen. Its just dodgy that ok.crows keeps saying Adelaide -will- finish better when they're really at the same level as a bunch of other clubs. These points gets conceded, and then in the next thread, crows are going to be top 4 again....

No Porthos, you are missing the point.

Firstly, I don't know any Crows fan seriously predicting a likely top 4 finish. Some say that is possible if things go well. Most say that a couple of extra wins over this year is quite achievable, and a reasonable expectation.

Even I am saying only that the likelyhood is that Crows will improve, rather than get worse which seems to be the almost universal prediction from other than Crows fans.

But it is not just idle speculation - it is based on trends and the following facts:

1 Crows have an inexperienced squad, probably the squad with the least experience in the comp.

2 Even inexperienced, Crows made the 8.

3 Crows beat some good sides along the way, but failed against weaker sides as well. Postulating inexperience as a reason for this is not unreasonable.

4 Crows are gaining experience.

5 Even this year, as experience was gained, Crows got better as the year progressed.

6 Given they beat some good sides, even beat the premiers on their home ground, Crows have shown they have got good footy in them.

7 Everyone is working their buts off at Crows to bring out that good form they have shown, and eradictae the lapses.

8 This is much easier to do than it is to get good footy out of a squad that has shown consistent mediocre form.

So ... add it all up and it amounts to more than just hope & assumption that Crows will improve - rather it is a reasoned assesment that that is the likely outcome.

PS: Hope you had a merry Xmas & have a good one for the new year as well, Porthos.

 

[mrboy]

carltons odds seem right.

 

[Worm4]

Originally posted by Kane McGoodwin
Wormy - What's dillusional about the points I was making? Be a little more specific. I didn't mention the Crows were favourites to make the top 4 (In my previous reply I rank Brisbane, Essendon, Hawks & Power). I was questioning your relativities - ie. how you could possibly have Carlton @ $8 - nearly twice as likely in your opinion to win the flag than the Hawks @ $15 & 62.5 times more likely than the Crows to win the flag!!! I reckon that is dillusional. If your serious about 500-1 odds for the Crows, I'm sure you will get many takers from Adelaide supporters.

Whilst I don't have the Crows in my projected top 4 for 2002, it is not an unreasonable suggestion based on their form in the last third of this season to say a top 4 spot in 2002 is obtainable. Who is to say one of these teams might not struggle with injury or form or a premiership hangover in 2002. There are probably only 4 teams IMO who cannot make the top 4 in 2002 (Geelong, West Coast, Freo & St Kilda).

Also, whilst it helps, you don't need to make the top 4 to win the flag. The Crows have demonstrated this in the past. It is more important to have a good run of form.

I personally rate Collingwood about the same chances of making the eight / winning the flag (not 15 times more likely!). It would be interesting to know what Centrebet's odds are.

This is an easy argument.

SImply put, Adelaide are unlikely to finish in the top four and hence will not get a home final in the second week of the finals ( which I predict they will not be part of anyway )

My odds are based on sides which I rate personally, and is of no one elses opinion. Do you really think Adelaide can mount a challenge for the flag given the way they exited out of the finals last year ? It was the most insipid performance that I have ever witnessed in September ! Now that Jarman has gone, do you really think Adelaide has enough match winners to compete with Essendon and Brisbane ? Now I know you are going to say that Adelaide beat Brisbane last year. Well Freo beat Adelaide and Hawthorn so does that make them better than your mob ? No !

Now my point on Collingwood was simple. Again, my opinion states that Collingwood will probably scrape into the eight. Can they win the flag from there ? No. There is the Moulthouse theory which still see's there odds being carefully structured, as he is a premiership winning coach and knows how to go about winning. Whether he currently has the personnel do win it remains to be seen.

Carlton's odds are as such because they have demonstrated in the past that they can beat Essendon and Brisbane and must be treated accordingly. Dillusional I think not .

Were you one of those supporters who were calling for Ayres head after round 5 or so last year ?

I'll gladly take anyones money at the 500 / 1. You South Australians are certainly a strange breed if you really think Adelaide FC can win the flag in 2002.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Wormy - As you correctly point out you are entitled to your opinion. I would be interested to know how your 500-1 Adelaide odds compare to an official betting agency like Centre Bet. Many Victorian pundits predicted the Crows to be wooden spooners in 2001, yet we made the eight. I agree Jars is a loss, but it's not like he is our only match winner - McLeod, Riccuito, Goodwin & Burton just to name a few. The Crows have plenty of room for improvement in 2002, most paricularly a more efficient forward structure - with Stevens, Perrie & Fitzgerald under Jars off-season coaching.

I wasn't basing my arguements based on one game (ie. vs Brisbane), however, you appear to making a lot out of one finals game which we were insipid. You seem to be forgetting we absolutely demolished Carlton a few week earlier & won another hard fought game @ Optus earlier in the season. I am basing my thoughts on the Crows last third of the season when Stevens moved to CHF & Hewitt to CHB, where the Crows were playing a great brand of footy before falling over against Freo & Carlton.

Talking of Carlton, not one supporter replied to the post I placed on your board, as to whether you are concerned about you defensive talls without SOS & Kouta. Prentergast looks a good prospect, but is still raw. Beaumont is a good player, but to small to take a really tall player. Manton is just about past it. Hotton is only just up to AFL standard. IMO, your defence will be suspect to the top teams in 2002, as has little chance of making the top 4 & I reckon will be the team to slide out of the eight.

I certainly wasn't one of those calling for Ayre's head. I think you find (as Ayres has said himself) it was generated by the Melbourne media. Adelaide has been more than supportive of Ayres (Robert Shaw though was another matter).

 

[Blues2001]

Originally posted by Kane McGoodwin
Talking of Carlton, not one supporter replied to the post I placed on your board, as to whether you are concerned about you defensive talls without SOS & Kouta.

Not true!

 

[RichmondEmma]

Carlton at 13$ hahaha,Brisbane favs betting wise 4 the 2002 flag interesting i would of trought Essendon would be trough Richmond 6th fav at 16$ is pretty fair i guess.

 

[ok.crows]

Originally posted by Worm4

This is an easy argument.

SImply put, Adelaide are unlikely to finish in the top four and hence will not get a home final in the second week of the finals ( which I predict they will not be part of anyway )

Adelaide can make the top 4 if all goes well. If as usual there are some stuff-ups, then even so they should improve by a game or two, and make fifth maybe.

Adelaide are the only side ever to have won a flag from fifth spot ... so if any side can do it, Adelaide can!

My odds are based on sides which I rate personally, and is of no one elses opinion. Do you really think Adelaide can mount a challenge for the flag given the way they exited out of the finals last year ? It was the most insipid performance that I have ever witnessed in September ! Now that Jarman has gone, do you really think Adelaide has enough match winners to compete with Essendon and Brisbane ?

Adelaide has a good enough side even on this years form to be able to win five games during the minor round against other final 8 sides. Yes, their finals game was insipid, consistency is one thing that definately will have to be worked on ... because Adelaide had thrashed Carlton just a few weeks earlier ... so yes, on their earlier form Adelaide could mount a challenge for the flag. It was not just Brisbane that Adelaide beat, but Brisbane, Carlton twice, Hawks and Richmond.

Jarman is a bit of a loss, yess, but all said and done this year he was only the eighth best Crow player, and kicked 38 goals. Not as hard to replace as say the loss of a Kouta & SOS from a team.

Now I know you are going to say that Adelaide beat Brisbane last year.

... and Carlton, Hawks and Richmond.

Well Freo beat Adelaide and Hawthorn so does that make them better than your mob ? No !

What it does strongly indicate though is that Adelaide were inconsistent or erratic. Not poor, just unreliable. In fact at times they played some good footy, and at other times ... as you say, insipid.

Now my point on Collingwood was simple. Again, my opinion states that Collingwood will probably scrape into the eight. Can they win the flag from there ? No. There is the Moulthouse theory which still see's there odds being carefully structured, as he is a premiership winning coach and knows how to go about winning. Whether he currently has the personnel do win it remains to be seen.

The thing about Collingwood that everyone seems to be missing is that they were consistent ... consistently mediocre. They won only three games out of 11 against the sides who contended for the flag. They aren't competitive at that level. And you must remember that Adleaide did in fact do better than Pies this year. Perhaps you should reverse your relative opinion on these two sides.

Carlton's odds are as such because they have demonstrated in the past that they can beat Essendon and Brisbane and must be treated accordingly. Dillusional I think not .

Delusional, yes, because you ignore the loss of Kouta ... blues very best player, and SOS, 6th best player ... but at the same time you seem to think that the loss of Jarman (only Crows 8th best) is of great significance, and again you seem to ignore that Crows beat Carlton 2 out of 3 this season, and Crows have a record in finals of 8 wins and only 4 losses, which is better than Carltons finals win/loss ratio.

Were you one of those supporters who were calling for Ayres head after round 5 or so last year ?

I'll gladly take anyones money at the 500 / 1. You South Australians are certainly a strange breed if you really think Adelaide FC can win the flag in 2002.

I don't see anyone saying that Crows are sure to win it, just that they have a shot, and it is far more likely than 500 / 1, and also they probably have a better chance at it than do Carlton or Pies.

If you are allowed your opinion, so too are we Crows fans. Especially if our opinion is in accord with the facts and yours is a fantasy of your own making.

 

[Grendel]

Originally posted by Dan26


Whilst non-Victorian sides have been able to win on the MCG on Grand Final day, the fact remains they have to come to Melbourne to do it, which is still difficult. The fact that they accomplished this in 2001 is irrelevant to 2002.

They (interstate) sides have won three of the last five Premierships. Five of the last ten. A little over 50% strike rate. In other words once they get there a pretty much even contest.

I dont think the difficulty factor is as bad for them as perhaps Vic side winning outside of Victoria.

 

[Worm4]

Originally posted by ok.crows


"The thing about Collingwood that everyone seems to be missing is that they were consistent ... consistently mediocre. They won only three games out of 11 against the sides who contended for the flag. They aren't competitive at that level. And you must remember that Adleaide did in fact do better than Pies this year. Perhaps you should reverse your relative opinion on these two sides."

Collingwood coming from 15th the year before suggests that their form is improving greater than any other side in the league.



"Delusional, yes, because you ignore the loss of Kouta ... blues very best player, and SOS, 6th best player ... but at the same time you seem to think that the loss of Jarman (only Crows 8th best) is of great significance, and again you seem to ignore that Crows beat Carlton 2 out of 3 this season, and Crows have a record in finals of 8 wins and only 4 losses, which is better than Carltons finals win/loss ratio."

Kouta is not our best player. Brett Ratten is and by a long way too. Yeah sure, Crow's beat Carlton twice this year. Be reminded that Adelaide lost a final to Carlton when it counted more importantly. What is Adelaides head to head ration versus Carlton ?

"I don't see anyone saying that Crows are sure to win it, just that they have a shot, and it is far more likely than 500 / 1, and also they probably have a better chance at it than do Carlton or Pies.

If you are allowed your opinion, so too are we Crows fans. Especially if our opinion is in accord with the facts and yours is a fantasy of your own making.

They may as well bet a million to one because Adelaide simply will not win the flag this year. The only people who seem to agree with you are Crow's supporters ! Does that tell you something ?

 

[ok.crows]

Originally posted by Worm4
Collingwood coming from 15th the year before suggests that their form is improving greater than any other side in the league.

What a quaint notion! - OK, then, why does that fact that Collingwood finished 15th and 9th over two years not amount to an average of 11th? Compare with Crows 11th & 8th - average 9.5. It all depends on your viewpoint. Collingwood fans are necessarily overoptimistic - they have to be after so many years of mediocrity. Crows fans on the other hand acknowledge a slump during Blights last year - and a steady improvement since!

Kouta is not our best player. Brett Ratten is and by a long way too. Yeah sure, Crow's beat Carlton twice this year. Be reminded that Adelaide lost a final to Carlton when it counted more importantly. What is Adelaides head to head ration versus Carlton ?

Kouta is your best player according to your own clubs best & fairest voting. Who am I or you to dispute that?

Adelaide did have an erratic performance this year - and their last two games exemplify that in spades! But how is it that you can quote averages over time in one instance (overall head-to-head) and at the same time dismiss a 2-1 win/loss ratio as an average this year in favour of looking at the one final ? Stick to one or the other by all means, but switching to suit your arguement merely detracts from your credibility.

They may as well bet a million to one because Adelaide simply will not win the flag this year. The only people who seem to agree with you are Crow's supporters ! Does that tell you something ?

It tells me that the vast majority of Carlton fans, who do not post at all on this thread, do not support your delusion as to the relative chances of Carlton versus Adelaide.

In other words, if Adelaide "may as well bet a million to one because Adelaide simply will not win the flag this year" then Carlton would be about two million to one, and Collingwood about seven million to one.

I repeat - in any realistic assesment (one based on performances and changes to lists), Adelaide would be favoured slightly ahead of Carlton and Collingwood.

 

[Worm4]

Originally posted by ok.crows


What a quaint notion! - OK, then, why does that fact that Collingwood finished 15th and 9th over two years not amount to an average of 11th? Compare with Crows 11th & 8th - average 9.5. It all depends on your viewpoint. Collingwood fans are necessarily overoptimistic - they have to be after so many years of mediocrity. Crows fans on the other hand acknowledge a slump during Blights last year - and a steady improvement since!



Kouta is your best player according to your own clubs best & fairest voting. Who am I or you to dispute that?

Adelaide did have an erratic performance this year - and their last two games exemplify that in spades! But how is it that you can quote averages over time in one instance (overall head-to-head) and at the same time dismiss a 2-1 win/loss ratio as an average this year in favour of looking at the one final ? Stick to one or the other by all means, but switching to suit your arguement merely detracts from your credibility.



It tells me that the vast majority of Carlton fans, who do not post at all on this thread, do not support your delusion as to the relative chances of Carlton versus Adelaide.

In other words, if Adelaide "may as well bet a million to one because Adelaide simply will not win the flag this year" then Carlton would be about two million to one, and Collingwood about seven million to one.

I repeat - in any realistic assesment (one based on performances and changes to lists), Adelaide would be favoured slightly ahead of Carlton and Collingwood.

Just letting you know that Ratten has won 3 B and F's at Carlton as opposed to Kouta who won his first in 2001. Ratten has also finished 2nd twice and 3rd a couple of times ( for memory ). I think the stats speak for themselves on this one.

On your second point. do you think Collingwood are on the slide and will finish lower then 2001 ? Personally speaking, Collingwood are going to get better and Adelaide will get marginally worse. I think a good result for the crows this year would be to break even ( 11 wins/11 loses ).

Lastly, you keep reminding me of last years performances. It's finished, but if you are going to state the head to head from last year ( to suit your analogy on the crows ) , why stop there ? ( to suit my argument ). At the end of the day ( quote G Ayres ), if you think that the Adelaide Crwos odds are nice and juicy, then go and have a bet on them. It will only be a waste of time . Good Luck !

 

[ok.crows]

Originally posted by Worm4


Just letting you know that Ratten has won 3 B and F's at Carlton as opposed to Kouta who won his first in 2001. Ratten has also finished 2nd twice and 3rd a couple of times ( for memory ). I think the stats speak for themselves on this one.

On your second point. do you think Collingwood are on the slide and will finish lower then 2001 ? Personally speaking, Collingwood are going to get better and Adelaide will get marginally worse. I think a good result for the crows this year would be to break even ( 11 wins/11 loses ).

Lastly, you keep reminding me of last years performances. It's finished, but if you are going to state the head to head from last year ( to suit your analogy on the crows ) , why stop there ? ( to suit my argument ). At the end of the day ( quote G Ayres ), if you think that the Adelaide Crwos odds are nice and juicy, then go and have a bet on them. It will only be a waste of time . Good Luck !

I personally don't bet. It is a waste of time ... there are too many factors beyond one's personal control or responsibility to be held accountable in monetary terms for the outcome. If you can follow that then you know what I mean ... if not, then too bad. For you.

I still see absolutely no reason you have offered for your opinion that Crows will slide & Collingwood improve and Carlton not slide ... no objective reason whatsoever. Crows have gained good potential recruits & their youth has gained in experience ... for Carlton you would be hard pressed to argue either & they have lost more ... for Collingwood they have no ready made recruits for this year. Furthermore, Crows best produced results against the best sides this year more often than either Carlton or Collingwood. These are the objective facts. Please constrain any further objective discussion to the facts.