2007 Caulfield Cup Thread

[Ricketts]

Terrible race this year, just very bad. Anyway:



Tawqeet - Shouldn't have even come back for this preparation. He is embarassing himself everytime he steps on to the track. But he's a Hayes horse so we must respect him.

Blue Monday - A slightly better version of Tawqeet

Blutigeroo - Still living off that BMW. No.

Railings - Go away Railings.

Maybe Better - Melbourne Cup is there for his taking, he'll be coming home strong in this, but he won't win becasue BMS doesnt want him to.

Black Tom - Who?

Purple Moon - I say bet on him for the Melbourne Cup before he runs in this. Purely because every other horse is shit this year and we havent seen this boy run so there is a slight chance he might not be shit. Could run well, so i'll include him.

Maldivian - The best horse in what is an awful race, but i'm not the slightest bit interested in $2.5 - $3. 2400 is a query, although he is Zabeel's boy. To say barrier 1 is a doubt is just stupid.

Cinque Cento - Goes well first up... then sucks you in for the rest of her prep.

Mandela - Slightly better version of Railings.

Scenic Shot - Good in the Turnbull, does that mean we should rule him out for this?? Hmmmmmm food for thought there. It's Scenic Shot FFS.

Annenkov - Country battler, no. Aplogies to the bloke on this board that owns him. As Richie Callendar would say, "i wouldn't mind owning him too."

Anamato - See: Spielmeister, Niconero, Confectioner. Hayes Cat. That Turnbull run was pure arse. I'll cry if she goes close.

Douro Valley - My tip. 2400 is fine. Can't fault his form, look at it on face value, he beat Maldivian.

Sirmione - Only good first up over 1400 these days.

Eskimo Queen - Pretty good horse. This is it's race, distance, jockey, barrier all get a tick. Hopefully she doesnt get so far back this time

Princess Coup - Looked good, but that was NZ racing. Is better than Railings and Mandela (who isn't) and this race might not be much better than a NZ race this year.

Master O'Reilly - Winning Edge runner. No.



1 - Douro Valley
2 - Maldivian
3 - Purple Moon
4 - Eskimo Queen.

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Backing or laying horses to finish 14th or better isn't usually my go - much prefer to back winners

Mee too,
Just thought given the statement I would enquire.
Worth a shot.

 

[sethlad]

__Ron_;AvB betting on Betfair!! (heads up matches)
Master O vs Eskimo Queen

If EQ cant beat MO here theres no point pressing on to Flemington IMO

seth

 

[discoduck]

Annenkov - Country battler, no. Aplogies to the bloke on this board that owns him. As Richie Callendar would say, "i wouldn't mind owning him too."

much better than a country battler. call him one-paced, but not a country battler. competitive at weight for age - a nose either side of eskimo queen and maybe better in the underwood. forgive one bad run last start. much better than a 50-1. i'll stick my neck out and say he'll finish top 5 and can finish in the placings.

 

[angus6]

princess coup is at good value. as is d/vally. maybe better i think is also a great chance but not with confidence as it seems the stable have him set for that tuesday and dont want any weight penalty. in saying that is probably still good enough to win this get the penalty and then win the cup.

mal is the best horse is the race and has the form. can he run 2400m and be targeted. jockeys will not llow him to get hi easy run up front and kick away otherwise he will win with one leg in the air. if the pace is on look for dv to run him down again or princess coup to fly home late.

 

[go fullta]

heres my thoughts on saturdays race:



Tawqeet - Being a stallion i think he has his mind on other things this prep. cant win saturday, send him straight to stud

Blue Monday - big hype on this horse, hasnt done much for me yet, could surprise, but i wont be touching him

Blutigeroo - value runner for mine. out to his right distance and is ready to fire. oliver is due for a big stage win, this could be the one, i will be on each way

Railings - this horse was stuffed about 2 years ago

Maybe Better - on paced peformer, who doesnt have the turn of foot over the 12 furlongs to beat these. melbourne cup looks his go

Black Tom - b grader, but i suppose this is a b grade field, i cant see it winning but could be a flookers chance for a place

Purple Moon - winning the ebor is good enough form this year to be amongst the chances in this field, he represents good each way value

Maldivian - under the odds in my opinion, odds on look on!! deserves to win on form but i wont be having anything on him

Cinque Cento - will set a hot pace for the rest of the field. may hold for a place but i cant see him in the finish

Mandela - is he going as good as last year?? geelong cup win was good, cant see him repeating that here though. bit of a query runner, cant overlook

Scenic Shot - didnt think this horse was that good, but his run last start shocked me. if repeats that saturday he will be hard to beat, hope he wins for stathi, good each way bet

Annenkov - form today through hurricane gust tells me no. cant have him

Anamato - will be a massive effort if she wins. had a hard prep earlier in the year, winning a gr1 in s.a, then he took her to america. asking too much of her bring her back for this. to me- she will be flat saturday or if she performs, she is as tough as nails

Douro Valley - never in my life, would i thought a horse that couldnt win the w'bool cup, couldnt be such a life chance in the cc. yes ricketts, what a weak year. good chance, but i wont be backing him

Sirmione - last seasons star 3yr old. as seth says, history is against him, cant win

Eskimo Queen - in my opinion (haha) this horse is over rated. hasnt done much for me this preparation, im wary of qld gr1 staying races for 3yr olds, i dont rate them, i cant see her winning

Princess Coup - awesome win last start. i am very confident about her chances but the query is the nz form, jadane came 2nd and it was no star when racing in oz. i reckon she represents great value, worth an each way ticket

Master O'Reilly - being very impressive this time in. if he gets the the pace on in front which he should, he is a great hope to run over the top of them, each way again



1 - blutigeroo
2 - maldivian
3 - princess coup
4 - master oreilly
5 - scenic shot

 

[AAMI]

I'm not saying he will win but Tawqeet will run better than many think he will. Last time in the Turnbull he started making ground before he hit the straight. He stuck to the rails which the worst part of a very biased track and consequently he finished nowhere near the winner.

He might be worth a little EW bet at silly odds.

 

[PRANKSTER666]

Black Tom will run top 3 in the Melbourne Cup.

 

[Chattanooga]

I am so sick of people moaning about how weak the Caulfield Cup is this year.

Considering what has happened with the EI outbreak it is a great field.

You have a horse that some (rightly or wrongly) are comparing to Might & Power in Maldivian.

You have the past TWO Caulfield Cup victors in the race, admittedly seeming to be in very poor form but they are past winners none the less. Tawqeet & Railings.

You have the BMW winner of the previous autumn in Blutigeroo.

You have the winner of probably New Zealand's most prestigious WFA race in Princess Coup. It doesn't hurt that she won in devastating fashion.

Not far behind Princess Coup was Mandela, last years Geelong Cup winner who was rated a good chance in the following Melbourne Cup & ran well.

You have last seasons Australasian Oaks winner, who has since travelled to the US performing well, placing in a Group One race; Anamato.

You have the dominant Winning Edge victor, who despite being a young stayer has placed in 13 of 18 starts, winning seven times; Master O'Reilly.

You have the last horse to beat the 'red-hot fave', a horse who has undoubtedly improved lengths in the last 12 months; Douro Valley.

You have last years SAAB quality winner & 3rd placegetter in the Melbourne Cup. All that in his first preparation as a stayer. Try and tell me Maybe Better shouldn't be a better horse now with 12 months more maturity on his side.

You have the Perth Cup winner, Black Tom. You have an intriguing overseas runner, Purple Moon. You have the Roses winner & dominant but desperately unlucky Qld Oaks favourite in Eskimo Queen.

What more do you expect?

Almost every year you hear the same thing. Oh this years race is crap... geez this is the worst field I've ever seen... this race is nothing like it used to be. People romanticise about the past without actually taking any notice of the facts.

Take a look back through the years and tell me the 2007 field is vastly inferior to previous versions. Under the circumstances it has held up well, and still holds plenty of intrigue.

Not every field is going to be like the '92 Cox Plate.

 

[Bubble Wrap]

I'm on Maybe Better.

Thought $11 was pretty good value for a horse that ran his last 600m in the same time as Maldivian last start. Nice weight drop and extra distance will suit.

Maldivian a deserved favourite, but nowhere near over the line already as some are suggesting.

 

[Catman]

Blue Monday is my value runner. Getting to a far more suitable distance now and while I think he'll be better come the Melbourne Cup I think he could be a rough chance.

Can't see anything but bad luck beating Maldivian. Weights, form, you name it, it all favours him.

 

[Rough_Edges]

Master O Reilly for me.

Beaten by Maldy by around 6 lengths last time they raced against eachother, but imo Master O will be better over the 2400, as was showed on saturday when he cruised to victory over 2400.

Sure, Maldy should win but I think Master O should hit the line better.

Green Mankini in the third....been on it for every race it has been on...i think this one could be a horse, was very impressive in the first last week.

 

[ECHUCABOY]

I am so sick of people moaning about how weak the Caulfield Cup is this year.

Considering what has happened with the EI outbreak it is a great field.

You have a horse that some (rightly or wrongly) are comparing to Might & Power in Maldivian.

You have the past TWO Caulfield Cup victors in the race, admittedly seeming to be in very poor form but they are past winners none the less. Tawqeet & Railings.

You have the BMW winner of the previous autumn in Blutigeroo.

You have the winner of probably New Zealand's most prestigious WFA race in Princess Coup. It doesn't hurt that she won in devastating fashion.

Not far behind Princess Coup was Mandela, last years Geelong Cup winner who was rated a good chance in the following Melbourne Cup & ran well.

You have last seasons Australasian Oaks winner, who has since travelled to the US performing well, placing in a Group One race; Anamato.

You have the dominant Winning Edge victor, who despite being a young stayer has placed in 13 of 18 starts, winning seven times; Master O'Reilly.

You have the last horse to beat the 'red-hot fave', a horse who has undoubtedly improved lengths in the last 12 months; Douro Valley.

You have last years SAAB quality winner & 3rd placegetter in the Melbourne Cup. All that in his first preparation as a stayer. Try and tell me Maybe Better shouldn't be a better horse now with 12 months more maturity on his side.

You have the Perth Cup winner, Black Tom. You have an intriguing overseas runner, Purple Moon. You have the Roses winner & dominant but desperately unlucky Qld Oaks favourite in Eskimo Queen.

What more do you expect?

Almost every year you hear the same thing. Oh this years race is crap... geez this is the worst field I've ever seen... this race is nothing like it used to be. People romanticise about the past without actually taking any notice of the facts.

Take a look back through the years and tell me the 2007 field is vastly inferior to previous versions. Under the circumstances it has held up well, and still holds plenty of intrigue.

Not every field is going to be like the '92 Cox Plate.

GREAT POST!! I'm sick of people whinging about the supposed crap fields. All it would have taken was one horse to come across the border and we'd be betting on camels.

Its so easy to bag out the field and be negative, we should be happy with what we have got....

I'm not ganna be thinking about how crap the fields are when im putting my life savings on Princess Coup and watching it win.

And I certaintly wont be complaining when I'm drinking my marquet full of piss on a perfect day at Caufiled!!!!!

 

[eastaugh36]

Write off Anamato at your own risk. At her best she is in the top half dozen in this race. Slight worry that her big year will take its toll on her though. That Hollywood Park run was exceptional.

 

[Lockyer24]

Any word on Blutigeroo? Or is he just getting nervous before the big one and thats why he wont eat his feed

 

[hatchd]

Tawqeet is a e/w chance, midweek he ran the best track gallop of all his runners on the day, DD was upbeat about it, and he is looking for 2400.
You just never know...If his minds on the job that is.

In saying that Mal should win, eskimo queen, maybe better, and M o R, should be closing fast.

 

[Fevaloution]

Douro Valleys finish it the last start was impressive and dropping in weight since then....ill take those odds anydays

 

[Ted]

Tawqeet is a e/w chance, midweek he ran the best track gallop of all his runners on the day, DD was upbeat about it, and he is looking for 2400.
You just never know...If his minds on the job that is.

I agree, but the problem is trainer and jockey have been upbeat about it and its trackwork for the last 2 months.

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

My thoughts :
Winning Chances
Maldivian - clear top pick. Will position up on the pace & enjoy the gun run. Has the form, weights, etc all in its favour. Will run out the 2400m the only concern is that at some stage it may need some luck from the inside. I can see a Paris Lane replica race here. Gets the runs kicks away & its all over.
Maybe Better - people are saying that BMS doesn't want to win this. What a load of BS. Yes he would prefer to not cope a penalty for the MC but if people think Corey Brown will not be out there to win they are kidding themselves. This is his 1st start at handicap level this time in & has performed well at WFA level which is not his go. This race will be run at genuine pace, which will suit him. The obvious danger to Maldivian.

Place Chances
Anamato - great run last week. Pulled out to go around Miss Finland last week, but just couldn't sprint in what was a typically run WFA race. Held on very well, similar to Tawqeet in 2006. Has the ability & I think the 2400 is no concern.
Douro Valley is in career best form & can't believe is a slight chance in this. His form tells us he must be included although I think its win over Maldivian was in a race that just panned out for him.
Master O'Reilly Just keeps batting on. I don't think he can win but concede he can run on for a place. His preparation is faultless but I just can't see him turning the tables on the JRA run.
Princess Coup no distance concerns with her. Will be coming home better than any. My concern is that she will give too big a start to some of the others I have mentioned. People knock the NZ form eg J'adane, did run 2nd in the 2006 Wakeful, 3rd was Anamato. Its more her Oaks run that was impressive, the Kelt just proved she is hitting her straps.
Eskimo Queen considered leaving her out. Just forgiving the Fleimington run, made up some ground without ever threatening. Is better than that.
Purple Moon - will include just for the value factor. Worry about being trapped out though.

I think Maldivian will win, but if the luck doesn't go his way I think Maybe Better is the obvious danger. Then a few place chances. Limited depth this year, but still very much looking forward to the contest.

 

[- PC -]

Good work BB

You have my box tri in there

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Good work BB

You have my box tri in there

Think we are both with the masses PC.

 

[- PC -]

Think we are both with the masses PC.

Yeah I get the feeling it wont be a big $$$ but I just want to be right

 

[thecarpetsnake]

Maldavian drifting toward $3 on betfair...

 

[__Ron_]

Maldavian drifting toward $3 on betfair...

Thats because of his supertab price (3.90). The mug money for Maybe Better for instance helps....

Betfair people always follow the tab price which i personally think is dumb .....

If anything they are still being cautious.

 

[sethlad]

QUOTE__Ron_;]Betfair people always follow the tab price which i personally think is dumb .....


Have to disagree here Ron,Betfair market is the real market IMO.
Look at he price of Tawqeet & Railings,$30 & $40 on the tote
$60 & $120 Betfair........I reckon I know who's closer to the correct price

seth