2007 Melbourne Cup Thread

[- PC -]

Leica Falcon will struggle and connections may be better off waiting 1 year and making an all out assault on the 2008 cup

My 2c

 

[starz]

It would be such a shame if Leica Falcon doesn't get across the border for the Melbourne Cup.

His 1:09 for the final 1200m in the Caulfield Cup was sensational almost Diva-esque. Then he backed it up with a huge run in the 05' Melbourne cup next to Xcellent. If he can find that sort of form again he will take some beating.


Miss Finland showed some nice power and speed at the end of 1800m in the Underwood Stakes ,way too strong for Marasco. It wasn't unnoticed, she firmed into second favourite alongside Zipping behind Efficient.

 

[sethlad]

Re: Melb Cup best price/flucs thread

Current best prices:

EFFICIENT8.6 Bfair.....$6.5 Sptngbet & IAS
M BETTER 13 Sptingbet
TAWQEET 55 Bfair
P MOON : $17 Ctrebet
ZIPPING 16.5 Bfair......$13 Ctrebet & Betstar

MF 12.5 Bfair.......$13 Ctrebet
E QUEEN18 Bfair......$15 Ctrebet
B MONDAY 55 Bfair ......$51 Sptngbet
MASTER O'REILLY 14 Bfair......$13 Ctrebet & IAS
MAHLER24 Bfair......$21 IAS

L FALCON 55 Bfair.....$34 IAS
SIRMIONE 60 Bfair......$41 Betstar
SCORPION 17.5 Bfair........$15 elsewhere
T AGREEMENT $65 Bfair......$61 IAS

Weekend firmers,MF,Scorpion & Mahler

seth

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Get on Scorpion huge run behind Yeats last run

 

[sethlad]

Re: Melb Cup best price/flucs thread

Current best prices:

EFFICIENT8.6 Bfair.....$6.5 Sptngbet
M BETTER 13 Bfair
TAWQEET 41 Ctrebet
P MOON : $15 Ctrebet
ZIPPING 15 Ctrebet

MF 14 Bfair.......$10 Sptngbet
E QUEEN19 Bfair......$15 Ctrebet & Betstar
B MONDAY 51 Sptngbet
MASTER O'REILLY 14.5 Bfair......$13 Ctrebet & IAS
MAHLER26 Bfair......$21 elsewhere

L FALCON 50 Bfair.....$34 IAS
SIRMIONE 55 Bfair......$34 elsewhere
SCORPION 19 Ctrebet
T AGREEMENT: $51 IAS & Ctrebet
NEW GUINEA: $110 Bfair....$34 Betstar


seth

 

[starz]

Tubular Bells to embark on Cup campaign

Melbourne Cup prospect Tubular Bells will have his first start in 18 months when he resumes at Geelong on Thursday.

Trainer Andrew Payne said the six-year-old had recovered well from a bowed tendon which put him on the sidelines.

"He's going really well on the training track and I'm expecting a really big run first up," Payne said.
"He'll go in to the Coongy Handicap and if he really impresses us he'll probably go straight into the Cup if he gets in."

Tubular Bells, has been beaten only once in seven career starts.
He won over 2400m at Caulfield on April 1 last year and was one of the favourites for the Chairman's Hcp (2600m) at Randwick but bowed his off front tendon in a track gallop.

Payne said the gelding had not been idle as he had only eight weeks off and had been in work for 16 months, beginning with equissage (massage) work and later a long slow build up of trotting and cantering.

"He had the stem cell (therapy) and then he was sent to Sean Buckley's farm near Kilmore where he was put in the hyperbaric chamber and did rehabilitation work," he said.

"We have done everything possible for him in his recovery. I'm so aware that you can get the tendon right but you also have to get him mentally right to being a racehorse again. I'm convinced he's back on track, but the fact it's been so long I don't know how long he'll stay up for.

"It's great at the moment, but he hates a hard track so he can jar up badly."


ON A JEUNE
Payne is hoping to have two Melbourne Cup runners as he has taken over the training of 2005 runner-up On A Jeune from Peter Montgomerie due to the travel restrictions involving the equine influenza epidemic.

Payne saddled up On A Jeune when he had his last start for the Strathalbyn-based Montgomerie on Friday night at Moonee Valley. The seven-year-old ran on very nicely from last under 59.5kg to finish a closing fifth and one of the runs of the night over the 1600m.

The winner of the 2004 Cranbourne Cup and 2005 Geelong Cup, On A Jeune will have his lead-up races to the Melbourne Cup in the Listed Cranbourne Cup (2025m) on Sunday week followed by the Group Two Cathay Pacific Airways (Moonee Valley) Cup (2500m) on October 27.
On A Jeune (52kg) is currently 36th in the order of entry for the Melbourne Cup, while Tubular Bells (50.5kg) is 53rd.

Tubular Bells is currently at $101 with TAB Sportsbet, while On A Jeune is at $31 after Friday's eye-catching effort.

 

[- PC -]

Tubular Bells is a clanger

On A Jeune will be in my calcs

 

[eastaugh36]

I was tempted to back Tubular Bells for the cup but when he still hadnt commenced his campaign a fortnight ago I had doubts on his progress so left him alone.

 

[starz]

Melbourne Cup Contender Cefalu Impresses
Melbourne Cup dreams for Cefalu were given a boost at Sandown today when he scored a runaway win in the $56,000 Gaine Carrington Handicap (2400m) at Sandown.

Ridden to instruction by prominent local apprentice William Hernan, Cefalu raced handy to the leaders throughout before Hernan made his move with about 800 metres to run.

He pulled his mount out three deep and let him roll. Hitting the front at the top of Sandown's long straight, Cefalu then sprinted clear of his rivals and at the post he held a sizeable four and a half length break.

"He's still in the Cups," Freedman pointed out. "It's a funny year and it's my ambition to get him to the Melbourne Cup."

"He's got no weight in the Melbourne Cup. He's fully qualified and he could get into the race and run really well."

English stayer's long road to Melbourne Cup

ENGLISH stayer Bay Story, who has been cruising under the radar as far as the "international" spring hopes are concerned this year, will open his Melbourne Cup campaign in the Bart Cummings at Flemington on Saturday.

Technically, Bay Story is not a visiting international because the six-year-old has been in Australia for almost 18 months.

Trainer Brian Ellison originally sent Bay Story to Australia as a companion for his stablemate Carte Diamond during his recovery from serious injury received in a freak mishap at Flemington leading up to the 2005 Melbourne Cup.

Unfortunately, Carte Diamond, who is also still here, failed in his bid to make it to last year's Melbourne Cup and now Bay Story has been given the chance to fly the flag for Ellison.

Ellison did not enter Bay Story for last year's Melbourne Cup but he paid his way during the spring before finishing second to Sydney stayer Respect in the Perth Cup (3200 metres).

Bay Story also opened his campaign in the Bart Cummings, over 2500 metres, last year, finishing third behind Irazu and Aznavour. He's No. 61 in the (cup) order of entry

 

[sethlad]

Tubular Bells has had another setback & is struggling to be fit for the Spring.

seth

 

[go fullta]

Tubular Bells has had another setback & is struggling to be fit for the Spring.

seth

thats bitterly dissapointing because i have a lot of time for this horse

 

[sethlad]

I dont think its too bad GF but theyre running out of time this Spring.

seth

 

[go fullta]

I dont think its too bad GF but theyre running out of time this Spring.

seth

yeah i noticed the other day that he was still in the markets but hadnt raced this preparation!!

i was wary of it because the paynes know what there doing, plus the horse has the avbility..

 

[starz]

GEELONG stayer Tubular Bells has a fetlock injury and could miss the $5 million Emirates Melbourne Cup.

Trainer Andrew Payne will know more about the injury after an X-ray is taken today. Payne said the horse might have only jarred-up in a track gallop at Geelong on Sunday.

``There is heat in the joint and if he has only jarred-up I could get him to the races this spring,'' Payne said. Payne had been delighted with Tubular Bells' progress this campaign.

Scans have cleared the gelding of a recurring tendon injury.

``The main thing is the tendon is all right and hopefully he has just jarred-up and it is something we can work through,'' Payne said.



==============================

Leica Falcon part-owner Margaret Eaton vows to fight
THE arrival yesterday of overseas horses Purple Moon and Tungsten Strike only reinforced to part-owner Margaret Eaton that her stranded Cups contender Leica Falcon has been discriminated against.

Eaton said everyone connected with the Corowa-based Leica Falcon was struggling to understand why the horse was not allowed into Victoria.

Trainer Richard Freyer yesterday nominated Leica Falcon, a $35 chance in the Caulfield Cup and a $31 chance in the Melbourne Cup, for Sunday's Benalla Cup.

However Eaton said neither she nor any of the other owners had received a reply to correspondence sent on September 19 to Premier John Brumby, Agricultural Minister Joe Helper or Racing Minister Rob Hulls.

On Monday, a spokesman for the Victorian Department of Primary Industry said there was nothing to suggest protocols would be relaxed to allow New South Wales or Queensland horses into Victoria.
Circumstances would need to change dramatically for the existing policy to be altered, the spokesman said yesterday.

Leica Falcon, Global Sprint champion Takeover Target and emerging star Natural Destiny headline the list of NSW horses looking to contest the spring carnival.
Eaton said when she last met Dr Hugh Millar, Victoria's chief veterinarian, the message conveyed was that when the NSW equine influenza outbreak was fully colour-coded -- red for high risk down to green for no risk -- and vaccination took place, an application for Leica Falcon to be allowed into Victoria would be favourably viewed.
"They were his very words. Now, they are going back on their words," Eaton said.
"I feel we are being discriminated against -- they are allowing in overseas horses who come from countries where there is EI. Why couldn't they put our horse in quarantine like the Europeans.
"Our horse is in as much as a green zone as Victoria. He is in the middle of the green zone, we're 600km away from the nearest outbreak of EI. "He's had his vaccination like all the Victorian horses."
Eaton agreed time was fast becoming an enemy for Leica Falcon, who has not raced since August 18.
She said connections would not drop their fight to have Leica Falcon included in the spring carnival.

"The horse is the best he's ever been. We're still hoping to get there," Eaton said. "We are not going to give up the fight."

 

[starz]

Dolphin cruises into contention

GRITTY country stayer Dolphin Jo yesterday raced himself into Melbourne Cup calculations following his win in the $150,000 The Bart Cummings at Flemington.

And trainer Terry O'Sullivan yesterday had some words for Dolphin Jo's critics, who claimed his strike rate in the past 18 months has been below par.

"He's never had any luck. Tracks have been against him, wrong races at wrong times … he just hasn't been able to get it all right at once but today he did. He loves that sting out of the ground and he seems to relish racing at Flemington, so I gave him a great hope of winning."

O'Sullivan said Dolphin Jo would now race in Saturday's Winning Edge Presentation Stakes at Caulfield, the Moonee Valley Cup a fortnight later and then the Melbourne Cup.

 

[starz]

Saturdays Turnbull Stakes 2000m at Femington saw Scenic Shot also ran into Cup calculations with a fine second behind Devil Moon.

Cup favourite Efficient didn't fire on the slow inside part of the track, Zipping also ran in the slow zone and battled on to pick up El Segundo and run fifth.

On a Jeune had no luck in the Benalla Cup but e did hit the line hard coming from last in his second up run in 11 months and remains a 40/1 chance. He has 52kg for the MC, his next start will be the Geelong Cup.

 

[sethlad]

Re: Melb Cup best price/flucs thread

Turnbull Stks day always sorts the markets out
Couple of new contenders into the market

EFFICIENT9.2 Bfair.....$8 Sptngbet
M BETTER 10.5 Bfair....$11 IAS
P MOON : $15 Ctrebet & IAS
ZIPPING 13 Ctrebet

MF 10 Bfair.......$9 Sptngbet
E QUEEN23 Bfair......$17 Ctrebet
B MONDAY 60 Bfair.....$41 IAS
MASTER O'REILLY 15 Bfair......$14 IAS
MAHLER26 Bfair......$21 elsewhere

SCORPION 17.5 Bfair........$17 Ctrebet
MALDIVIAN24 Bfair
P COUP36 Bfair......$26 IAS
D VALLEY38 Bfair....$26 Betstar
S SHOT50 Bfair......$41 IAS
MANDELA75 Bfair.....$51 IAS

Efficient easy after an average run,D Valley & S Shot supported after surprising Gp1 efforts
P Coup confirmed as a runner after winning the Kelt
Continual money for MF to do the CP/MC double

seth

 

[eastaugh36]

Well I put a few Melbourne cup bets on today. a roughie - Viz Vitae at $201
Liked his run in the Balak cup, with Hayes now and with the overseas contingent not expected to be the usual numbers, I think it will be a weak cup year. He was badly injured in a race 2 springs ago but has come back nicely when most would have been retired. Tough horse. He might be the type that will need to win the Saab to get a start though.

Good win in the Benalla Cup. Probably isnt classy enough to win a melb cup but it's a strange year this year. Might sneak a place. I'm ***** off I wasnt on him yesterday at the odds of $10!

 

[starz]

Moon shining in Oz

Purple Moon is continuing to please Down Under as his preparations for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups gather pace. Luca Cumani's Ebor winner took the long journey in his stride and is giving connections all the right signs in the Australian sun.
Cumani's daughter Francesca, who travelled with Purple Moon, told At The Races: "We left last Sunday and arrived here on Tuesday. He took it really, really well. He was very relaxed, never turned a hair and ate well on the flight, so he arrived relatively fresh.
Purple Moon has just enjoyed some light exercise since arriving, with the team more than satisfied with his fitness.
Cumani added: "On the first couple of days he just had a bit of a lead out walking and then we took him out on the track for a trot on Friday. Since then he's just had a couple of canters.
"He did a couple of good gallops before he left so we're just giving him a bit of time to get over the flight now. He'll then just have one gallop before his race."
Purple Moon will have his first taste of Australian racing in the Caulfield Cup before attention turns to the 'race that stops a nation'.

Cumani continued: "That is what we intended originally and that is still the plan - we were just waiting to see how he took the flight. We've got two weeks before the Caulfield Cup. It would be nice to see him in the first six but we've come here for the Melbourne Cup.

 

[starz]

English raider sizes up Geelong Cup

ENGLISH horse Bay Story will provide an international flavour to the $200,000 PETstock Geelong Cup (2400m) on Wednesday, October 24.
North Yorkshire trainer Brian Ellison walked the Geelong track on Monday and felt the long straights would suit Bay Story.
Ellison hopes Bay Story can win the Geelong Cup to improve his order of entry into the Melbourne Cup.
Bay Story was yesterday 36th in order to gain a start in the 24-horse Melbourne Cup field.
The lightly-raced six-year-old gelding has the lightweight of 50kg in the Melbourne Cup.

 

[starz]

Miss Finland new Cup Favourite

DAVID HAYES was the dominant figure of yesterday's latest feature race declarations, but while his numbers easily outweigh his rivals, Hayes' main spring hopes rest with just one horse.
She is, of course, Miss Finland and, if all goes to plan for the freakish mare, she will replicate the 2005 effort of turf legend Makybe Diva by winning the Cox Plate and then the Melbourne Cup 10 days later.

"The plan all along was to run her in the Melbourne Cup and there's been nothing that has changed my mind this spring," Hayes said yesterday.
"In fact, I really don't think there has been a better Melbourne Cup trial this spring than her run (when second) in the Underwood Stakes. It was a run of Makybe Diva proportions."

Bookmakers did not miss the mare's finishing effort that day behind bolter Rubiscent. While she long has been the top pick for the Cox Plate — currently at $2.25 — she took over yesterday as Melbourne Cup favourite at $7 at the close of second declarations for the $5 million race at Flemington on November 6.

 

[sethlad]

Re: Melb Cup best price/flucs thread

EFFICIENT9.6 Bfair.....$8.5 Sptngbet
M BETTER 9.6 Bfair....$8 Sptngbet
P MOON : $15 Betstar
ZIPPING 13.5 Bfair....$12 Ctrebet

MF 9.4 Bfair.......$8 Sptngbet
E QUEEN23 Bfair......$17 Ctrebet
B MONDAY 70 Bfair.....$34 IAS
MASTER O'REILLY 11.5 Bfair......$8.5 everywhere
MAHLER22 Bfair......$21 Betstar

SCORPION 18 Bfair........$17 Ctrebet
MALDIVIAN17 Bfair.....$16 Sptingbet
P COUP40 Bfair......$26 Betstar
D VALLEY36 Bfair....$26 everywhere
S SHOT40 Bfair......$31 Sptngbet
MANDELA70 Bfair.....$51 Ctrebet

Obvious firmers M Better,Maldivian & MOR,also some for Blue Monday at all the online bookies.
Apparently worked well at Werribee Sunday (still $70 available at Betfair)

seth

 

[starz]

Brian has eyes on Melbourne Cup

Trainer Brian Mayfield Smith would gladly take a Caulfield Cup win with Maybe Better but won't be distressed if beaten in the race, eyeing next month's feature race at Flemington as his main spring mission.

Mayfield Smith has set Maybe Better for the Emirates Melbourne Cup since last year's third placing and is content with his weight of 53.5kg.

He says he certainly doesn't want any more in the way of a penalty for a Caulfield Cup win and will be happy to once again see him finish the race off this Saturday.

Maybe Better has had a quiet build-up to this year's Melbourne Cup, running on at the end of virtually all six races this time in, including the latest when a fast finishing fourth behind Maldivian in Saturday's Yalumba Stakes.

“I was happy with the way he finished it off after he appeared to be struggling at the tail around the turn,” Mayfield Smith said.

“He's pulled up better than he's ever done.”

Maybe Better didn't race in last year's Caulfield Cup but via a big win in the SAAB Quality then finished third with just 50kg behind Japanese gallopers Delta Blues and Pop Rock in the Melbourne Cup.

With 53.5kg Mayfield Smith believes he has enough weight already and, while happy to accept a Caulfield Cup win doesn't want anything more for his main target.

“We've planned for it for 12 months. The Melbourne Cup is the race I'd ideally like to win but a Caulfield Cup is a Caulfield Cup,” Mayfield Smith said.

Maybe Better is a $9.50 chance with Sportingbet for Saturday's Group 1 feature race, while he remains the $7.50 favourite for the Melbourne Cup on November 6.

Mayfield Smith has yet to taste success in either the Caulfield Cup or Melbourne Cup but has hinted at retirement should that come to fruition this spring.

 

[starz]

Master O'Reilly was impressive in the G2 Winning Edge Presentation Stakes at Caulfield on Saturday. Trainer Danny O'Brien has welcomed a 1.5kg Melbourne Cup penalty which takes the five-year-old's weight to 51.5kg and more importantly promotes his place on the order of entry from 34th to 26th, virtually ensuring him of a start.

"Master O'Reilly has emerged as a quality stayer and he'll be ideally suited by the 3200m of the Melbourne Cup," Carpenter said.

While happy to be running in the Caulfield Cup, O'Brien admitted the $5 million Emirates Melbourne Cup had always been the primary goal for Master O'Reilly this spring.

"The Melbourne Cup is the race we've set him for," O'Brien said after last Saturday's win.

"I can't wait to get back to Flemington with this horse as his only run there was sensational."

O'Brien was pleased with Master O'Reilly's recovery from Saturday's win and confirmed today that he will join stablemate Douro Valley as his runners in the Caulfield Cup.

"History says if you are going to run well in the Melbourne Cup, you must run in the first four in the Caulfield Cup," O'Brien said.

The penalty for the Melbourne Cup takes some pressure off his jockey Vlad Duric but he is still on a strict diet this week to ensure he rides Master O'Reilly at 50kg on Saturday.

=======================


Miss Finland's Melbourne Cup campaign remains on track with another strong run in the Yalumba Stakes despite a frustrating second behind Maldivian. "I suppose if you lose the little Group I's and you win the big ones, it doesn't matter," Hayes said

And Hayes acknowledged the four-year-old mare would not only relish every additional metre of the Melbourne Cup distance, but that she had now outgrown Caulfield as a track of preference.

"While we're disappointed to lose, it was another good run and I'll be pleased to get away from Caulfield," Hayes said openly.

But before she runs at Flemington on the first Tuesday in November, Hayes believes she will also be hard to beat in Saturday week's Cox Plate (2040m) at Moonee Valley.

"She looks like she's hitting flat spots (at Caulfield) and maybe a harder-run Cox Plate will be more in her favour. And maybe a bit longer in a Melbourne Cup might be even better too.

"It was a pretty good Cup trial. I think the tale of the tape will be pretty good.

 

[starz]

Blue Monday fancy for Melbourne Cup

LAST year's Caulfield Cup winner Tawqeet was sent to Werribee racecourse yesterday in a bid to rejuvenate his career, six days before his title defence, with a gallop simulating race conditions.

But his lesser known stablemate, former English stayer Blue Monday, stole Tawqeet's thunder and signalled that spring glory may be just weeks away. He is on target to contest the Melbourne Cup and trainer David Hayes is pleased with his progress.

"Blue Monday was outstanding. His work was really good and and he had the better of Tawqeet," Hayes said.