2016 AFL - Finals Week 1

[NYRB]

Before anyone harps on about the Crows winning in 98 outside the top 4, that was under the McIntyre System. (Adelaide lost in the first week of finals)

Under this format you would have to win 4 games in a row to win the flag.

 

[X_box_X]

You dont win flags from 5th to 8th under the double chance method for top 4. Sorry to say we wont see a team when the flag under this format , from 5th to 8th.

Adelaide and West Coast are too short , ive seen odds of around 14/1 for both.

It would be both foolish and ignorant to suggest it won't happen.

Just because it hasn't happened yet, doesn't mean it won't happen. Don't get me wrong, it's unlikely to happen this year, but if your post has any merit, how come I'm not seeing back prices of $1000 on Betfair for all teams ranked 5th to 8th in terms of premiership winner?

FWIW, Collingwood in 2007 has come the closest to achieving it. They were only five points away from Geelong in the PF and they would have eaten Port Adelaide for dinner in the GF.

I also reckon Port in 2014 would have won the GF from fifth had they beaten Hawthorn in the PF.

 

[Zyzzzzzzz]

multi up the 4 favs chop chop chop

beg borrow steal

 

[chrisdon16]

multi up the 4 favs chop chop chop

beg borrow steal

Should be safe, but wouldn't feel confident putting hard earned on Geelong. 50/50 game, Hawks step it up in finals

 

[GROTTO]

Should be safe, but wouldn't feel confident putting hard earned on Geelong. 50/50 game, Hawks step it up in finals

I'm expecting late money to come in for the Hawks tbh closer to the game.

Time will tell.

 

[Sketi]

More risky for the likes of you and I....I won't be going anywhere near the totals until I can see a weather model showing some kind of prediction/forecast.

Only risky if you are taking overs. If you like any unders now and assume a dry track, any crappy weather that comes along will just be a bonus.

 

[Oraaaaazio]

FWIW, Collingwood in 2007 has come the closest to achieving it. They were only five points away from Geelong in the PF and they would have eaten Port Adelaide for dinner in the GF.

I also reckon Port in 2014 would have won the GF from fifth had they beaten Hawthorn in the PF.

aaaand if your aunt had balls she'd be....?

 

[Oraaaaazio]

Should be safe, but wouldn't feel confident putting hard earned on Geelong. 50/50 game, Hawks step it up in finals

if it's 50/50 surely that's a big enough overlay for you to bet the hawks at $2.30-$2.35

 

[Jugada]

aaaand if your aunt had balls she'd be....?

So? Dealing in absolutes is stupidity especially when we have already had a team get that close

 

[X_box_X]

aaaand if your aunt had balls she'd be....?

Original comment still stands.

 

[Spads]

Geelong are my best bet. Think they do the job easily. Not convinced by any expectations that hawthorn will simply step it up. They really don't have the cattle anymore.

 

[chrisdon16]

if it's 50/50 surely that's a big enough overlay for you to bet the hawks at $2.30-$2.35

Definitely, but was in regards to putting Geelong in a 4 leg favorites multi

 

[Zyzzzzzzz]

no daytime elimination final this year.. spewing. loved the overs in that one.

 

[puntking]

few of the under dogs imo hawkes into giants with the line

 

[free at last]

Totals are out with no weather forecast. Sportsbet looking for some action, bit risky

I'm jumping on the cats v Hawks u174.5 pts...I've got it at 171pts.

The weather forecast for Melbourne on Friday is looking wet.BOM is calling 80% chance of rain with up to 15mm falling into the gauge.
The factor I like,it's forecasted to be quite warm(23c) in Melbourne on Thursday.Warm weather like that at this time of the year is a indicator of cold wet change is on the way!

 

[chrisdon16]

I'm jumping on the cats v Hawks u174.5 pts...I've got it at 171pts.

The weather forecast for Melbourne on Friday is looking wet.BOM is calling 80% chance of rain with up to 15mm falling into the gauge.
The factor I like,it's forecasted to be quite warm(23c) in Melbourne on Thursday.Warm weather like that at this time of the year is a indicator of cold wet change is on the way!

Very tempted to do the same but at the moment looks like rain early only. Accu weather has 0mm from 4pm onwards. Still very early

 

[free at last]

Very tempted to do the same but at the moment looks like rain early only. Accu weather has 0mm from 4pm onwards. Still very early

Mmmmm....Just checked windguru st kilda location and it has the heaviest rain falling from 8pm onwards.....

 

[chrisdon16]

SB total has gone up to 172.5

 

[langdon19]

I've jumped on the under 174.5 too, hoping the weather comes in.

 

[free at last]

I've jumped on the under 174.5 too, hoping the weather comes in.

Intensity should go right up considering what's at stake,likely to be a low scoring contest IMO.

 

[langdon19]

Any thoughts on the over 176.5 adl v north. Rain fri and Sunday but ok Saturday night. Might be too far out to read the weather though.
Last game these 2 played Adalaide kicked 13 behinds in the first and 2nd half, so plenty of shots.

 

[chrisdon16]

Gusty winds in Melbourne Friday too, up to 50km/h

 

[chrisdon16]

Trusting the meteorologists and getting on the under 174.5

 

[free at last]

Trusting the meteorologists and getting on the under 174.5

BOM now forecasting up to 30mm of rain in Melbourne now.Bet365 now at 167.5pts....

 

[chrisdon16]

BOM now forecasting up to 30mm of rain in Melbourne now.Bet365 now at 167.5pts....

Yeah aware of that. Most of the rain is during the day but ground should be slippery, as good as the MCG is with drainage, don't think it can drain up to 30mm before kick off