Analysis 2016 Draft...

[marty36]

FTR... my top 50 power rankings:

1. McCluggage
2. McGrath
3. Taranto
4. Ainsworth
5. Brodie
6. SPS
7. Setterfield
8. Bowes
9. Logue
10. Venables
11. Perryman
12. Florent
13. Berry
14. Scrimshaw
15. SPP
16. Hayward
17. Marshall
18. Gallucci
19. Z Fisher
20. Scheer
21. Simpkin
22. Battle
23. Poholke
24. Ridley
25. Ryan
26. Duman
27. Witherden
28. Mutch
29. English
30. B Cox
31. Drew
32. Stengle
33. Morrish
34. Atley
35. Scharenberg
36. Rotham
37. Walker
38. Narkle
39. Clarke
40. Guelfi
41. Bolton
42. Allison
43. Lipinski
44. Dundon
45. Maibaum
46. Romensky
47. C Cox
48. Begley
49. Williamson
50. Cumming

Jarman at 51

Out of your top 20 who do you think will fail history says 50% will the trick is picking the ones that won't

 

[hendo8888]

Everyone has already switched to following our dominant and extremely successful test cricket team

Or our A-League team, or our NBL team.
Not the best time to follow SA sports.

 

[Brentmeister]

Out of your top 20 who do you think will fail history says 50% will the trick is picking the ones that won't

Who will fail out of the top 20?! Lol no one picks a player in the top 20 who will fail. Otherwise it'd be an exact science and every top 20 player would play 200 games.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Out of your top 20 who do you think will fail history says 50% will the trick is picking the ones that won't

I just can't predict that. I've put my players where I've put them in order of a combination of factors (how well they're playing now, how much scope they have to become successful players etc).

 

[marty36]

Who will fail out of the top 20?! Lol no one picks a player in the top 20 who will fail. Otherwise it'd be an exact science and every top 20 player would play 200 games.

I'm asking for a prediction people are predicting the draft order and picks we know from history 50% of firsts play less than 150 games and 35% of draftees play more than 100 games

We predict ladder drafts yet you don't want to predict those that will and won't succeed

We are very critical of players like Mackay yet I'm asking who will and won't make it in the top 20 we know from history there will be around 50% fail and succeed

 

[Alwaysacrow]

I don't follow draft prospects too closely so I don't have much to contribute to this thread accept this. I hope to God that our recruiters don't just blindly follow their normal spin by following the "we trade for need and draft for talent" rule into this years draft, particularly for No.13, possibly ignoring a top mid for a "more talented" forward or defender or something.
We need MIDs and we need them badly.
If we could get a ready to go mid from the draft and get 1/2 of a season out of him before he burns out I'd take that.
Burton has said again just recently that they'll "trade for need and draft for talent", the same old spin. What he fails to realize is that they failed miserably in their trade for need this year. Maybe it's time to change their policy going into this draft just for once.

 

[baldandbroke]

I'm asking for a prediction people are predicting the draft order and picks we know from history 50% of firsts play less than 150 games and 35% of draftees play more than 100 games. We predict ladder drafts yet you don't want to predict those that will and won't succeed. We are very critical of players like Mackay yet I'm asking who will and won't make it in the top 20 we know from history there will be around 50% fail and succeed

What you are asking is nonsense on stilts marty.

 

[Pdub]

I don't follow draft prospects too closely so I don't have much to contribute to this thread accept this. I hope to God that our recruiters don't just blindly follow their normal spin by following the "we trade for need and draft for talent" rule into this years draft, particularly for No.13, possibly ignoring a top mid for a "more talented" forward or defender or something.
We need MIDs and we need them badly.
If we could get a ready to go mid from the draft and get 1/2 of a season out of him before he burns out I'd take that.
Burton has said again just recently that they'll "trade for need and draft for talent", the same old spin. What he fails to realize is that they failed miserably in their trade for need this year. Maybe it's time to change their policy going into this draft just for once.

Disagree, I think you always go best talent with your first pick, an 18-year-old midfielder is a 100 to 1 shot at slotting straight into our midfield and making a big difference, picking up a ready-made midfielder next year is still a genuine option. A forward would also not be a wasted pick as we need to start thinking about life after Tex in the forward line since forwards take up to 7 years to be able to be the main man.

The club would not be drafting a player to fix a hole in the list in 2017, they are drafting for our 2020 side because even guys like Fyfe, Dangerfield and Ablett did **** all in their first 3 - 4 years.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

 

[WaynesWorld19]

 

[Danger in Texas]

According to part two of the Berry piece, our recruiters went out to Ballarat in the middle of the year and took Berry out to breakfast, if that means anything. We told him not to worry about how his injury woes may affect him and that we just wanted to see him back playing and having fun.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Has us taking Hayward, FWIW

 

[azza77]

Haven't really given an opinion until now as I wasn't expecting to pick at 13 this draft. But i've been doing some homework on the guys who would be around at 13 and personally I would take Sam Powell Pepper. I know he's lower on many draft boards and has a bit of a question mark about his skills, but the kid seems like a raging bull type player of the Martin/Dangerfield ilk. Plays with that intense see ball get ball physicality which the other guys touted in this draft range don't seem to have.

In an AFL program skills will always get better, but when it comes to that ferocity around the contest, well you can't teach that!

I'm all in!

I've really, really liked the look of him too myself. Just has that edge. Like mire so than Venables.

Geez I wish we had another pick in the top 20 in this draft, would love to grab 2 of the top 25-30 prospects, there's some real talent in there.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I've really, really liked the look of him too myself. Just has that edge. Like mire so than Venables.

Geez I wish we had another pick in the top 20 in this draft, would love to grab 2 of the top 25-30 prospects, there's some real talent in there.

Like the pepper too , just doesn't find enough of the ball unfortunately but would have loved him with a second pick in top 20 just as you suggest

Love the aggression and explosiveness

 

[azza77]

Agree so much, I'm on record saying a while back that we will really regret trading for both Seed and Hampton.

Hampton Im not convinced by but Seedsman? I think he's been a great get with a lot of footy still ahead of him. Having him and Smith up and running together is so important and compliments our game plan, as we saw earlier on in the year

 

[FAITH]

so apparently venables is unlikely to be considered at our pick 13, not as highly rated by us as berry and a couple others

 

[azza77]

so apparently venables is unlikely to be considered at our pick 13, not as highly rated by us as berry and a couple others

I like the sound of this, there are others I rate much higher. Venables didn't really stand out too much from the tapes I have seen of him. Made questionable decisions and was always so rushed/sloppy with the ball.

 

[Danger in Texas]

so apparently venables is unlikely to be considered at our pick 13, not as highly rated by us as berry and a couple others

Any idea of the couple of others?

 

[Danger in Texas]

Hampton Im not convinced by but Seedsman? I think he's been a great get with a lot of footy still ahead of him. Having him and Smith up and running together is so important and compliments our game plan, as we saw earlier on in the year

Nah look I agree, think we made the right choice going for Seedsman, when he's got a good run of games he's been very dangerous off a wing with his boot, speed and spread. Able to get in the contest more than one would think, too.

Gut feel says Hampton won't make it, myself. Think he's behind a fair few of our outside mids. He's the one we shouldn't have traded for, IMO.

 

[FAITH]

Any idea of the couple of others?

i reckon brodie maybe witherden?

 

[Ozzie]

Freo will not take English ......bookmark it!

SPS ....Logue .....or even Brodie IMO

Wayne, you're changing the goal posts now. It was he wouldn't go in the first round originally. Starting taking those Pics.

 

[azza77]

Like the pepper too , just doesn't find enough of the ball unfortunately but would have loved him with a second pick in top 20 just as you suggest

Love the aggression and explosiveness

I really just like him as he suits our needs so well. A tall, powerful, explosive midfielder with inside/outside ability and some X factor to go with it. Has quite the package if he can tidy up his skills? (which didn't look all that bad to me in the tapes to be completely honest, he has very good technique so I don't think it will be a massive issue to work on).

There's a lot of Dustin Martin about this kid. Maybe not as polished skills-wise (yet) but he's relentless and looks like someone you can rely on to get the job done in those tough slogs. Thing is, SPP has all the tools but also seems to have that mentality and hunger to succeed at the highest level, something which is rare. That mindset could take him a long way.

I like Brodie and he will be hard to pass on, he has a few more strings to his bow than your generic inside mid with his run and carry and long kick. I just feel that one pure inside mid is enough for team balance and we already have BoB, and to an extent you could also put Sloane in that category (his outside work is an added bonus).

We have enough outside talent also, so I don't see as much of a need for a Gallucci/Hayward type if they are there. Now it's time to bring in a dynamic midfielder that can play sides of the midfield and I look at someone like SPP and just see a huge ceiling there and so much to work with. Jarrod Berry is the other Im hot on at 13. Another well rounded player with good skills, versatility and athleticism. Can never go wrong with a player of his character either.

Will only really be disappointed if we take a tall at 13. I don't see a need.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Has us taking Hayward, FWIW

Who are the good footballers from St Peters College in AFL currently?

 

[Ozzie]

I just simply fail to understand why a lot of you are dismissing Hampton as a chump. The man is mature, played 51 games already, was sidelined by a long term injury for most of our last year and a lot of you want to write him off. Amazing! He made his way back later in the year and showed enough to suggest he will be a pretty handy pickup for us. So we can take a nonproven kid at least 2 years away from even getting an AFL game. Think Wigg, 2 years later he is still waiting to get a taste.

 

[Squiba]

On the Seedsman/Hampton topic, when we picked up Hampton I was extremely bullish about him.

Size, extreme speed, agility, clean hands... He was and still is a very good prospect. But acquiring that foot injury, Cameron spending time in the midfield, Seedsman making an impact in the first 22 and the drafting of Milera has set him back a long way.

Imo, if Smith, Milera, Atkins and Seedsman are to take the wing duties from here on in, Curtly needs to develop into and inside/outside mid. He needs to be able to win his own ball off the deck and fire off a hand pass, or receive a hand pass/ruck tap from the edge of the circle and burn off his opponents coming out of the contest. Similar to CC, but with more size and starting from the inside.

If we were asking Seedsman to do this, I would give him very little chance of making it. But Curtly could, and if given the chance to develop this game in the SANFL could become a Yolmen, with better foot skills and CC like pace. That is someone I want in the 22. As Curtly said in an interview early this year, he sees himself more as a midfielder forward than a back flank.

If Dougy drops out, and Menzel doesn't make his case, I think a Hampton/Greenwood duo rotating through the centre square and forward line would add an awesome new dynamic to our squad.

The lad has the ability, we'll know in another 2 seasons if he can make a roll like that his own.