Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

[Azzurro]

Just curious which ones you would consider clear wins?

For me Everitt >McIness is the only one I think that is a definite upgrade

I agree with that as a clear win.

I think Warnock OUT is a win, even if the IN was something like Witches Hat.

I'd also call Thomas over Menzel a win, based on what they have both shown over their respective careers.

 

[Azul]

I'd also call Thomas over Menzel a win, based on what they have both shown over their respective careers.

It's what they'll show for the remainder of their respective careers that bothers me.

 

[ShanDog]

We are apparently interested in joining the women's league - one would have thought that that would be a VERY costly exercise!

Maybe, but could come with some significant financial assistance too.

It's the cost v benefit that matters. I reckon the exposure and being seen as a leader in this area would be great for the club.

Not to go too deep into social dynamics, but I've always thought a club like Carlton can't keep relying on its traditional supporter base and needs to take opportunities like this to open itself up to new groups. Could be a great thing for the health of the club.

 

[mediumsizered]

harsh on Belly after last season. REckon jury still out on that

Bell was good this year, although he did taper off in the latter part of the season & I think he is still learning the caper whereas Kerrigan is a more natural footballer.

 

[DaVillaBlues]

We are apparently interested in joining the women's league - one would have thought that that would be a VERY costly exercise!

Only four Vic based clubs will get a gig in the augural women's footy league and The Dogs and Dees are pretty much a certainty and Collingwood making a big push, we're no certainty to get a look in anyway (least initially)

 

[KohPhi]

Bell was good this year, although he did taper off in the latter part of the season & I think he is still learning the caper whereas Kerrigan is a more natural footballer.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

View attachment 199808

Recruited from Bonnie Doon....

 

[Alice]

Maybe, but could come with some significant financial assistance too.

It's the cost v benefit that matters. I reckon the exposure and being seen as a leader in this area would be great for the club.

Not to go too deep into social dynamics, but I've always thought a club like Carlton can't keep relying on its traditional supporter base and needs to take opportunities like this to open itself up to new groups. Could be a great thing for the health of the club.

All very well said and i fully agree - BUT - youd think we need to be spending every cent on chasing #17 first. Surely?!?!

 

[HalAlaric]

Love this time of year. Just resigned my membership and for the very first time in over a decade I am actually positive in the approach the club has taken in this rebuild of ours. With the talent that is being speculated for next years draft, I honestly believe we need to try and do the same thing in next years trade period and try and secure multiple first round picks.

Having drawn up my best teams for Carlton and Northern it is clear we still have a long way to go so how do we increase our draft night profile without selling everything of value to the club and culture.

Hypothetically if we unfortunately finish 18th in 2016 and players like Simpson (possibly Jamison, Walker : injury) retire, we need to really draw some hard line on players that just might not ever make it at AFL and those that are on the fringe.
Keep if break out otherwise delist as it's my belief they would hold almost no currency with other clubs:
Forster, Gowers, DVR, Jones, Tutt, Wood, Corringe, Dick, Armfield.
Keep or trade if value is there:
Everitt, Casboult.

So as you see from my opinion we have very little to offer to build on our picks. People have mentioned Gibbs as bait but with losing Simpson we need those older guys on board. My only thoughts would be so trade pick #1, our 2nd rd, and the 3rd rd selection we received from WB for all three of GWS' 1st rd picks (Collingwood, Geelong, GWS) + Tomlinson.

Not sold myself as like my profile pic suggests I already have someone in mind (Petrevski-Seton), but whats peoples thoughts on this? As you see from my trade scenario, I have faith in majority of the above players except maybe Jones...

 

[HARKER]

Love this time of year. Just resigned my membership and for the very first time in over a decade I am actually positive in the approach the club has taken in this rebuild of ours. With the talent that is being speculated for next years draft, I honestly believe we need to try and do the same thing in next years trade period and try and secure multiple first round picks.

Having drawn up my best teams for Carlton and Northern it is clear we still have a long way to go so how do we increase our draft night profile without selling everything of value to the club and culture.

Hypothetically if we unfortunately finish 18th in 2016 and players like Simpson (possibly Jamison, Walker : injury) retire, we need to really draw some hard line on players that just might not ever make it at AFL and those that are on the fringe.
Keep if break out otherwise delist as it's my belief they would hold almost no currency with other clubs:
Forster, Gowers, DVR, Jones, Tutt, Wood, Corringe, Dick, Armfield.
Keep or trade if value is there:
Everitt, Casboult.

So as you see from my opinion we have very little to offer to build on our picks. People have mentioned Gibbs as bait but with losing Simpson we need those older guys on board. My only thoughts would be so trade pick #1, our 2nd rd, and the 3rd rd selection we received from WB for all three of GWS' 1st rd picks (Collingwood, Geelong, GWS) + Tomlinson.

Not sold myself as like my profile pic suggests I already have someone in mind (Petrevski-Seton), but whats peoples thoughts on this? As you see from my trade scenario, I have faith in majority of the above players except maybe Jones...

Yes and it's not just about the re-build but the overall approach by the club.
It feels real but maybe to a point, we may have thought it was really before also.........................but it wasn't.
The pieces are in place and now have to be kept in place and nurtured form the blank canvas to the Mona Lisa.

I know we can say that we haven't much to barter with next year but that's not necessarily true.
We may not be holding the aces but we do have some cards we could just better our hand with. (loving the analogies? )

 

[The Facepainter]

Recruited from Bonnie Doon....

And I hear the food was a credit to the airline.

Ah yes, the serenity

 

[DaVillaBlues]

Yes and it's not just about the re-build but the overall approach by the club.
It feels real but maybe to a point, we may have thought it was really before also.........................but it wasn't.
The pieces are in place and now have to be kept in place and nurtured form the blank canvas to the Mona Lisa.

I know we can say that we haven't much to barter with next year but that's not necessarily true.
We may not be holding the aces but we do have some cards we could just better our hand with. (loving the analogies? )

You have to factor in that next season, our on field performance will resemble that old Pro Hart commercial where he messes up that old lady's carpet.

But as they say, you can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs ..

 

[KohPhi]

Love this time of year. Just resigned my membership and for the very first time in over a decade I am actually positive in the approach the club has taken in this rebuild of ours. With the talent that is being speculated for next years draft, I honestly believe we need to try and do the same thing in next years trade period and try and secure multiple first round picks.

Having drawn up my best teams for Carlton and Northern it is clear we still have a long way to go so how do we increase our draft night profile without selling everything of value to the club and culture.

Hypothetically if we unfortunately finish 18th in 2016 and players like Simpson (possibly Jamison, Walker : injury) retire, we need to really draw some hard line on players that just might not ever make it at AFL and those that are on the fringe.
Keep if break out otherwise delist as it's my belief they would hold almost no currency with other clubs:
Forster, Gowers, DVR, Jones, Tutt, Wood, Corringe, Dick, Armfield.
Keep or trade if value is there:
Everitt, Casboult.

So as you see from my opinion we have very little to offer to build on our picks. People have mentioned Gibbs as bait but with losing Simpson we need those older guys on board. My only thoughts would be so trade pick #1, our 2nd rd, and the 3rd rd selection we received from WB for all three of GWS' 1st rd picks (Collingwood, Geelong, GWS) + Tomlinson.

Not sold myself as like my profile pic suggests I already have someone in mind (Petrevski-Seton), but whats peoples thoughts on this? As you see from my trade scenario, I have faith in majority of the above players except maybe Jones...

Well put together... i think this year was our best opportunity to trade into the first round with talented players wanting out and im confident we did well. We still have a couple of years at the "pointy head" of the draft to go so expect more "gilt edged" talent to come our way. What we cant afford to do is to stagnate like Melbourne though so the club will eventually need to move from recruitment mode and focus on development mode. Again im confident this is right down BB's alley and this is when his man management skills will shine.
Like you Hal, i have a sense of optimism for next season not so much based on expected wins but more around watching the team grow.
Im even renewing my NB's membership as i think watching the young kids run around will be great!!

 

[ferrisb]

You have to factor in that next season, our on field performance will resemble that old Pro Hart commercial where he messes up that old lady's carpet.

But as they say, you can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs ..

Oh Mr Harks.... What a mess!

 

[ODNBlue]

We are apparently interested in joining the women's league - one would have thought that that would be a VERY costly exercise!

Would be worth every cent.

 

[adammania9]

What is your opinion on Levi Casboult?

What value is he to the club and is he a part of the Blues' resurgence? I feel with the selection of McKay and Curnow in the ND, the Blues are keen to move forward. They now have five key forward options in the two mentioned, as well as Casboult, Jones and Everitt. Jack Silvagni was also drafted as a third tall but possible defensive option as other Blues posters suggest.

There were also whispers going around that Carlton were interested in offloading Casboult to another club in return of a good draft pick during the trade period. Whether that was true or not is not really known but apparently Brisbane and Fremantle were interested.

Casboult has 53 goals in 52 games, a whisker over a goal a game, and has never finished top goal kicker in a season for Carlton. Do you think he is worth an awful lot to the club other than a strong contested mark?

In my eyes, the Blues will be looking to secure more draft picks next year and they may struggle due to trading out almost all expendable players that have trade value. Casboult is maybe the last guy left who is tradeable and could net a decent draft pick due to lack of key forwards at some clubs. And it seems as if they have already drafted possible replacements.

Would you trade him if the club got a second round pick in a stocked draft, or even a first round pick?

 

[Beer n Skittles]

What is your opinion on Levi Casboult?

What value is he to the club and is he a part of the Blues' resurgence? I feel with the selection of McKay and Curnow in the ND, the Blues are keen to move forward. They now have five key forward options in the two mentioned, as well as Casboult, Jones and Everitt. Jack Silvagni was also drafted as a third tall but possible defensive option as other Blues posters suggest.

There were also whispers going around that Carlton were interested in offloading Casboult to another club in return of a good draft pick during the trade period. Whether that was true or not is not really known but apparently Brisbane and Fremantle were interested.

Casboult has 53 goals in 52 games, a whisker over a goal a game, and has never finished top goal kicker in a season for Carlton. Do you think he is worth an awful lot to the club other than a strong contested mark?

In my eyes, the Blues will be looking to secure more draft picks next year and they may struggle due to trading out almost all expendable players that have trade value. Casboult is maybe the last guy left who is tradeable and could net a decent draft pick due to lack of key forwards at some clubs. And it seems as if they have already drafted possible replacements.

Would you trade him if the club got a second round pick in a stocked draft, or even a first round pick?

I was hoping Freo would trade for him. He'd provide a good 2nd tall target inside 50, plus they could stop playing 2nd ruckmen who are useless at everything outside of playing in the ruck.

From all accounts Phillips is looking like a great pick up. If we play both him & Kreuzer, then Casboult's value to the team is diminished.

Trade if we can get a pick below 25 or so

 

[ferrisb]

What is your opinion on Levi Casboult?

What value is he to the club and is he a part of the Blues' resurgence? I feel with the selection of McKay and Curnow in the ND, the Blues are keen to move forward. They now have five key forward options in the two mentioned, as well as Casboult, Jones and Everitt. Jack Silvagni was also drafted as a third tall but possible defensive option as other Blues posters suggest.

There were also whispers going around that Carlton were interested in offloading Casboult to another club in return of a good draft pick during the trade period. Whether that was true or not is not really known but apparently Brisbane and Fremantle were interested.

Casboult has 53 goals in 52 games, a whisker over a goal a game, and has never finished top goal kicker in a season for Carlton. Do you think he is worth an awful lot to the club other than a strong contested mark?

In my eyes, the Blues will be looking to secure more draft picks next year and they may struggle due to trading out almost all expendable players that have trade value. Casboult is maybe the last guy left who is tradeable and could net a decent draft pick due to lack of key forwards at some clubs. And it seems as if they have already drafted possible replacements.

Would you trade him if the club got a second round pick in a stocked draft, or even a first round pick?

Levi is no world beater and never will be, but has become a solid target up forward.

Never finished as leading goalkicker, but improving each year. Kicked 24 from 16 this year, which is decent. His kicking improved markedly after getting coaching from your old big lug Sav Rocca. I think moving forward, a club could expect 25-35 (maybe 40) goals a year, which is not too shabby.

As for our other options, the cupboard is a lot more bare than you suggested - particularly in the short term. McKay is years away from being a main target, Curnow is perhaps more of a 3rd tall, Everitt is a tall flanker, Jones may not play (m)any more games and Silvagni is very raw. So I see Cas as being our #1 or #2 target for the next few years before moving down the pecking order.

As you mentioned though, there is a good chance SOS will look to cash in more players at the end of the year. He is in that mid-aged group that would return some value. A pick in the 20-25 range might do it? I would understand if teams didn't stump up that much, but it wouldn't be worth us trading him for a pick in the 30s or a pick upgrade.

 

[Azzurro]

Although it's too early to be speculating, I'm going to do it anyway.

The club will be anticipating some of our players increasing in value thanks to the increased emphasis on development. On top of that, we should have a playing system that will help our players shine (like Hawthorn, Doggies, Port etc) rather than what we've had over the last 3 years.

If you think about it, what we sold Robinson, Garlett et al for was a pittance of their value. Had we sold them at the peak of their ability in our colours (circa 2011), the return for our club would have been vastly increased.

This is why I have faith in SOS and co. If there is value to extract, we will extract it. And we will do so fairly and reasonably, unlike the way that * operate.

I also have faith in SOS and his team to do a few more things:

1. Recruit the right type of players. As seen this year, he decided our spine was in need of a drastic makeover. So instead of using picks in Round 3 to do it, he traded up to access the best tall talent in the 1st round.

2. Trade for the best deals. Swapping our two 2nd round picks for pick 11 allowed us to get Charlie Curnow. And as we saw, it was slim pickings from about 15 onwards this year.

So what is our currency next year?

SOS will move players on that are not crucial to our structure, or if their role can be easily filled sufficiently by other players. And he will also move on players who are a bit older and will likely not be there for the future, post our 66 game rebuild.

Gold Coast have already expressed interest in Everitt. He will net us a 2nd round pick at least (as long as he continues to perform like he did this year) judging by this year's offer.

We are developing Gorringe, Phillips and Korchek to support Kreuzer, and we've seen throughout history that ruckmen provide significant returns. These guys are all approaching the perfect age. Admittedly the American is raw but he's a project player with extraordinary potential and incredible will to succeed. And we can't fit all four into our system. At least one will be sold for much more than we paid, either in 2016 or 2017.

Casboult will be on the table next year, unless he proves himself behind the scenes in Bolton's system. But with SOS in charge we only sell for the right price - which will be at least a high second round pick (or a couple of them) for a team in contention. I don't want to lose him, but we can't afford to be sentimental about things just yet. We need to extract value while value is there to be extracted.

There will be more players to put on the table too, once we start to reap the rewards of our development focus. Most likely, a lot of us will not be happy with the decisions. But they will be made for the right reasons. SOS has proven to be able to turn 2nd round picks into 1st round picks with consummate ease.

Watch this video from June - at 3:45, he lets us in on his draft strategy, but masquerades it as a joke!

http://www.carltonfc.com.au/video/2015-07-01/silvagni-talks-list-and-draft

I know one thing for sure: if he wants more picks in the 1st Round of the 2016 draft, he will get them.

 

[1981]

Watch this video from June - at 3:45, he lets us in on his draft strategy, but masquerades it as a joke!

http://www.carltonfc.com.au/video/2015-07-01/silvagni-talks-list-and-draft

I know one thing for sure: if he wants more picks in the 1st Round of the 2016 draft, he will get them.

What was the Qn posed? I could not hear the journo...
Was it getting lots of early picks?
That's sort of a no brainer isn't it? Bec that is where the cream is, and where you have the best chances statistically speaking of getting long term players.

 

[1981]

Club will try and get a priority pick, if it is early second round then so bet it, beggars can't be choosers.
Expect to see SOS try and engineer another complex deal.
Everitt to GC?
Levi would need to improve a fair bit to be retained. If you can snare a second rounder for him, you add that to our original second rounder and the prioirty pick...

1
19
20
25 (Casboult)
28 (Everitt)

So then SOS bundles some of these for a higher single pick.

 

[bluedabadee]

good to see carlton have finally updated the player list. can't wait to see our monsters in the midfield (murphy 187, boekhurst 191 and graham 193) booting it down to our high marking small forwards (casboult 183 and rowe 180). simmo, at last, has had a few pies.

 

[Jeremias]

good to see carlton have finally updated the player list. can't wait to see our monsters in the midfield (murphy 187, boekhurst 191 and graham 193) booting it down to our high marking small forwards (casboult 183 and rowe 180). simmo, at last, has had a few pies.

Holy moly KJ is massive...

 

[passmark]

good to see carlton have finally updated the player list. can't wait to see our monsters in the midfield (murphy 187, boekhurst 191 and graham 193) booting it down to our high marking small forwards (casboult 183 and rowe 180). simmo, at last, has had a few pies.

great post.

Please post more often.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

good to see carlton have finally updated the player list. can't wait to see our monsters in the midfield (murphy 187, boekhurst 191 and graham 193) booting it down to our high marking small forwards (casboult 183 and rowe 180). simmo, at last, has had a few pies.

Armfield is finally a true CHB and frankly I don't see Phillips making it in the ruck.