In a couple years Gibbs will probably leave and his value will be less then. So maybe we should trade him now, assuming we get a first rounder. Are we keeping him just because we need his midfield experience during a rebuild phase?
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Analysis 2017 List Management Discussion - Part 3
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Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
The Freo/GWS trade reflects that GWS were set to delist McCarthy.
The Hawthorn/Saints trade was definitely nuts, and you can guarantee Hawthorn will block, stymie and compete for every move the Saints make for a while out of spite.
He will generate band 1 comp when he leaves, so why would we accept anything less?
Not a chance any club will give up a top 10 pick. These days too valuable. Only happens for top end talent who are driven and are quality individuals. Way too risky
Stringer is talented but apparently lazy and doesn't do things anywhere near afl standard.. Combined with Hamstring injuries it's way too risky especially for a medium forward who Beveridge has had enough of
Club may risk a pick 15-20 but no way will a top 10 happen.
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Be over 30 and won't command big money. Can't see Band 1 happening
We were in a worse position end of 2015
No chance? Can't see one of the bottom clubs chasing him and that may take away the opportunity for a top ten pick, but someone will reach for one reason or another.
Maybe it could be North though, who are desperate to do something.
There will be one who will back themselves.
Not a chance. Won't happen. Way too risky. Top 10 is gold.
Look at the trades for Top 10 picks over the last 5 odd years that have worked. All hardworking driven consistent top line mids.
I had a long chat with my Blues supporting mate down in Tassie yesterday and I made the suggestion that after this first week of finals, I'm expecting most clubs to trade harder this year than they ever have.
The rationale behind that belief is that the losing finals teams got really belted and therefore will be looking to adjust their list accordingly. Even though Port lost narrowly, they still have some areas that need improving, their midfield would certainly benefit from a Gibbs type of player.
I'm certain this won't necessarily affect the overall value of any of our players (ie. radically increase) who will be leaving but it does make me think that SOS will be pushing hard to find homes for few of the fringe players instead of purely delisting them. I can see a club or two prepared to give Buckley, Graham & Boekhorst a second chance in the belief that they can get more out of them than we did.
The mooted limitation on this upcoming draft pool may also have a direct influence on this line of thinking.
The rationale behind that belief is that the losing finals teams got really belted and therefore will be looking to adjust their list accordingly. Even though Port lost narrowly, they still have some areas that need improving, their midfield would certainly benefit from a Gibbs type of player.
I'm certain this won't necessarily affect the overall value of any of our players (ie. radically increase) who will be leaving but it does make me think that SOS will be pushing hard to find homes for few of the fringe players instead of purely delisting them. I can see a club or two prepared to give Buckley, Graham & Boekhorst a second chance in the belief that they can get more out of them than we did.
The mooted limitation on this upcoming draft pool may also have a direct influence on this line of thinking.
and we changed the coach & recruiter
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No he wont. We will get the too old line we got for Waite and get nothing.
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ferrisb
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Sorry Jimster, ZERO chance Gibbs generates band 1 compo at end of 2019.
#1) I'm not even sure his contract ($ AND length) will be in the top 5% league wide
#2) Even if it is, his age will rule him out. Will have played 12 years of AFL football by that point.; 4 years beyond RFA min, 2 years past UFA. Will rule against him, like the Waite contract. Will still generate compo (assuming compo is still in place) but it will be diluted.
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I'm probably wrong, but isn't band 2 a pick directly after your second round pick?
If that's true, it means we won the 2019 premiership and I don't care what we get for him.
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Band 2 is end of first round.
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
I understand the thinking, LL, but disagree with the conclusion. Sure those teams may reach to top up and improve.
But I doubt players like Buckley, Graham, Boekhorst (in particular the first 2) will be seen as good enough to make a difference. IF they are traded, it will be for token picks (talking 4th-5th rounders) to circumvent the ignominy of DFA process IMHO.
Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
Band 2 is end of first round.
Don't agree guys, and on a 4+ year deal at $700+k, he's a band 1 probability, and a band 2 certainty. He'll also be 30, not 32.
Nothing Adelaide has proposed to this point has trumped that, so why would we take that value early, and in a draft that doesn't offer quality talent for the 10-25 range?
Lol, zero chance of band 1.
Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
I think the contract will have more of a say than his age.
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Lawrence Angwin
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thanks so much for reminding me. 10 years of therapy up in smoke.
Lawrence Angwin
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My therapist says it helps to talk about it..............hasn't seemed to help yet!
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Lawrence Angwin
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Waite's contract should have got band 3, but we got nothing due to his age.
Poor decision by the AFL.
I have zero faith in their ability to award fair compensation.
http://m.afl.com.au/news/2014-10-03/jarrad-waite-joins-north
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McLean was a good pick up in theory, prolific ball winner early career and inside protection for juddy. Problem in practise was he was perennially injured and the game evolved post him literally as we traded for him.
The game got faster with more interchanges so a slow elite runner became obsolete.
Best sledge I ever heard at the footy was in a preseason game at Ballarat vs North, Brock grabbed the ball on the half back flank and ran to the forward flank, literally took him 30 seconds and someone yelled from the crowd, "just kick the ball treadmill" literally looked like he was running on the spot.
The game got faster with more interchanges so a slow elite runner became obsolete.
Best sledge I ever heard at the footy was in a preseason game at Ballarat vs North, Brock grabbed the ball on the half back flank and ran to the forward flank, literally took him 30 seconds and someone yelled from the crowd, "just kick the ball treadmill" literally looked like he was running on the spot.
I did say in the last 5 years. List Managers will go to the draft more& more.
Not sure McLean is a great example [emoji6]
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