Play Nice 2018 Ladder Predictions

[Trav 20]

What if Melbourne are better this year, as so many are tipping them to be?

Wouldn't the fact we lost be a very similar margin and in a very similar way to last time suggest that we are also better, if so?

Our first quarters in the two games were putrid (mainly lacklustre and sloppy), but we outscored Carlton (who looked MUCH improved and were playing on their home/training ground) after the first 10 mins of that game, and Melbourne after quarter time (and through the middle period of the game we outscored them 8.4 to 1.1, to the exact moment Steven went off injured, late in the 3rd), so I wouldn't go reading too much into what happened, from a team perspective.

There were some significant positives from an individual perspective though, with regards to those who could make us a better team this year, so once we're no longer experimenting as much as we were in the JLT, and actually come to play from minute one, I'm very confident we'll improve as a team again this year (injuries pending), as long as we're able to fine-tune the team stuff pretty quickly.

When the heat was on in the first half we looked the better team.

In the third quarter we had our C team start in the centre square and our better players spent more time on the pine.

And naturally in a practice match players take their foot off the pedal in the second half when they've got a healthy lead.

I think you're reading too much into your third term revival.

 

[Vic_Vinegar]

its funny how many take the JLT as an indicator of the season proper

didnt carlton win the preseason cup a decade ago only to win the spoon.

anyway for what its worth

gws
adelaide
richmond
geelong
melbourne
sydney
essendon
saints
bulldogs
west coast
collingwood
hawthorn
fremantle
carlton
gold coast
north
gold coast
brisbane

I assume one of these is meant to be Port Adelaide. Which one?

 

[Conca Cuddle]

its funny how many take the JLT as an indicator of the season proper

didnt carlton win the preseason cup a decade ago only to win the spoon.

anyway for what its worth

gws
adelaide
richmond
geelong
melbourne
sydney
essendon
saints
bulldogs
west coast
collingwood
hawthorn
fremantle
carlton
gold coast
north
gold coast
brisbane

I think that with the introduction of AFLX and teams only having 2 JLT games, most teams are playing 1 (if not 2) full strength squads where possible.
Whereas years gone by teams have given little fuss about performing well in the pre-season because it likely meant that they could end up playing 4 matches.

Whilst I still take away little from JLT games as an indicator of a teams performance throughout the year, the standard is higher so tells you a bit more than the Wizzard/NAB preseason comps.

 

[molo80]

Adelaide
Geelong
Sydney
GWS
Port
Richmond
Bulldogs
St Kilda

Essendon
Melbourne
Hawthorn
Collingwood
West Coast
Carlton
Brisbane
North
Freo
Gold Coast

 

[aussierulesrules]

When the heat was on in the first half we looked the better team.

In the third quarter we had our C team start in the centre square and our better players spent more time on the pine.

And naturally in a practice match players take their foot off the pedal in the second half when they've got a healthy lead.

I think you're reading too much into your third term revival.

Here's the thing though, it wasn't just the 3rd quarter when you had your "C-team" in the middle, we'd worked our way back into the game by about the middle of the 2nd quarter and by the end of that quarter we were on top in general play (hence having the 4 scoring shots to 1 in the last 18 or so minutes of that quarter).

From the 11 minute mark of the 2nd to the 23min mark of the 3rd (when Steven went off, as we were having the shot that put us a goal up) we outscored you 8.4 to 1.1, and it wasn't until the 29 min mark of that quarter that you got your next goal, so by that stage we'd kept you to 1 goal 3 in over a quarter and a half of footy, while scoring 8.5 ourselves.

So while I'm sure it helped us that you didn't have your A-team in the middle in that 3rd quarter, it sure as shit didn't help us that we lost the driving force from our midfield for that last 35 minutes of the game (meaning he played just 48% game time- for 19 disposals, a goal, and 5 clearances, tackles and score involvements) and like you we were also experimenting throughout the game.

For instance I'm pretty sure that Armitage and Steele (who both usually play basically exclusively midfield) both spent the whole first quarter playing forward, while we had Rohan Marshall rucking against Gawn for a big chunk of the 2nd half, then playing on Hogan down back later in the game, so all this stuff is why I think too much can be read into the results of praccy matches, when there are no points on the line, and teams have different objectives and hunger levels.

For us I think the main thing we take out of it is that we did get our game going eventually (once we stopped with the crazy amount of handballs and once Bruce in particular started clunking his marks) and that when we did we were able to dominate a team that could be pretty good this year, and who were dominant themselves earlier in the game.

 

[TY24]

1. Sydney
2. GWS
3. Richmond
4. Geelong
5. Adelaide
6. West Coast
7. Melbourne
8. Essendon
---------------------
9. Port Adelaide
10. Hawthorn
11. Bulldogs
12. St. Kilda
13. Fremantle
14. Collingwood
15. Gold Coast
16. Carlton
17. Brisbane
18. North Melbourne

 

[Alwaysacrow]

its funny how many take the JLT as an indicator of the season proper

didnt carlton win the preseason cup a decade ago only to win the spoon.

anyway for what its worth

gws
adelaide
richmond
geelong
melbourne
sydney
essendon
saints
bulldogs
west coast
collingwood
hawthorn
fremantle
carlton
gold coast
north
gold coast
brisbane

Wow!! Does this mean Port have been kicked out of the comp?

 

[kreglze]

Sydney
Richmond
Adelaide
Melbourne
GWS
Geelong
Port Adelaide
Essendon
----------------
Bulldogs
Hawthorn
West Coast
Gold Coast
St Kilda
Fremantle
Collingwood
Brisbane
Carlton
North Melbourne

 

[Madness101]

1. GWS
2. Adelaide
3. Melbourne
4. Richmond
5. Port Adelaide
6. Sydney
7. Essendon
8. St Kilda

If 4/8 of these are correct come September 2018, I'll be pretty happy with myself.

 

[zacaxel1975]

GWS
Richmond
Sydney
Melbourne
Geelong
Port Adelaide
Hawthorn
Footscray

Fremantle
St Kilda
Adelaide
Essendon
West Coast
North Melbourne
Carlton
Brisbane
Collingwood
Gold Coast

 

[The Airing of Grievances]

Adelaide
Geelong
Sydney
GWS
Port
Richmond
Bulldogs
St Kilda

Essendon
Melbourne
Hawthorn
Collingwood
West Coast
Carlton
Brisbane
North
Freo
Gold Coast

Largely agree your top 6 though not necessarily that order. I will be very disappointed if we finish below both the Bullies and Saints. If I was Dees fan, would be bitterly disappointed if my team finished below both of those teams and the Dons.

 

[The Airing of Grievances]

1 Adelaide
2 Sydney
3 Port Adelaide
4 Geelong
5 Richmond
6 GWS
7 Melbourne
8 Essendon
9 Hawthorn
10 W Bulldogs
11 St Kilda
12 Carlton
13 Collingwood
14 West Coast Eagles
15 Fremantle
16 North Melbourne
17 Brisbane
18 Gold Coast Suns

 

[The Airing of Grievances]

1. Sydney
2. GWS
3. Richmond
4. Geelong
5. Adelaide
6. West Coast
7. Melbourne
8. Essendon
---------------------
9. Port Adelaide
10. Hawthorn
11. Bulldogs
12. St. Kilda
13. Fremantle
14. Collingwood
15. Gold Coast
16. Carlton
17. Brisbane
18. North Melbourne

Gotta support the team I suppose, but if the Eagles are above Port at the end of R23 I'll ride my bike from Perth to Melbourne wearing a dress of your choice! Should arrive at the G just in time to see Simmo hold up the Cup.

 

[Benaly28]

Adelaide
Geelong
Sydney
GWS
Port
Richmond
Bulldogs
St Kilda

Essendon
Melbourne
Hawthorn
Collingwood
West Coast
Carlton
Brisbane
North
Freo
Gold Coast

Dees not to make it and saints TO make it......Really?Dees top 4 easy top 8.

 

[TY24]

Gotta support the team I suppose, but if the Eagles are above Port at the end of R23 I'll ride my bike from Perth to Melbourne wearing a dress of your choice! Should arrive at the G just in time to see Simmo hold up the Cup.

I probably have been a bit generous to us, but I think everyone is guilty of that when it comes to their own team


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Benaly28]

1. Sydney
2. GWS
3. Richmond
4. Geelong
5. Adelaide
6. West Coast
7. Melbourne
8. Essendon
---------------------
9. Port Adelaide
10. Hawthorn
11. Bulldogs
12. St. Kilda
13. Fremantle
14. Collingwood
15. Gold Coast
16. Carlton
17. Brisbane
18. North Melbourne

No chance in hell eagles anywhere near top 8 this year and beyond actually.List holes everywhere.No Kennedy and Nic nac first few weeks.Will start the season 0-3.

 

[TY24]

No chance in hell eagles anywhere near top 8 this year and beyond actually.List holes everywhere.No Kennedy and Nic nac first few weeks.Will start the season 0-3.

Kennedy, Gaff, Shuey, Naitanui, Yeo, McGovern and Shephard are all elite players, as well as some exciting young talent coming through in Ryan, Waterman, Rioli and Venebles. We’ve got as good a chance to finish in the 8 as any other team, not going to go deep in finals but we’ve got the capability to be there.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Jeremias]

Kennedy, Gaff, Shuey, Naitanui, Yeo, McGovern and Shephard are all elite players

That's one hell of a stretch there...

 

[Joao]

Kennedy, Gaff, Shuey, Naitanui, Yeo, McGovern and Shephard are all elite players, as well as some exciting young talent coming through in Ryan, Waterman, Rioli and Venebles. We’ve got as good a chance to finish in the 8 as any other team, not going to go deep in finals but we’ve got the capability to be there.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Shephard? He is a good player no doubt, but not "elite".

Yeo is not elite if he is not at half back either.

If the JJK out till around round 12 rumours are true I'd say you are VERY long odds to play finals this year. Dude makes your team 3 goals better.

 

[TY24]

Shephard? He is a good player no doubt, but not "elite".

Yeo is not elite if he is not at half back either.

If the JJK out till around round 12 rumours are true I'd say you are VERY long odds to play finals this year. Dude makes your team 3 goals better.

First I’ve heard of any round 12 rumours


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Joao]

First I’ve heard of any round 12 rumours


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Can't remember where I read/heard it (might have been the eagles board) but have read it a couple of places. Something about not wanting to let supporters know because membership or some garbage. No idea if true or not.

Haggers also said he was suspicious that he might be much further away than WC are letting on. Of course you'd be well within your rights to think the opposite of that one.

 

[TY24]

Can't remember where I read/heard it (might have been the eagles board) but have read it a couple of places. Something about not wanting to let supporters know because membership or some garbage. No idea if true or not.

Haggers also said he was suspicious that he might be much further away than WC are letting on. Of course you'd be well within your rights to think the opposite of that one.

If that’s true I’d be incredibly disappointed with the club, I doubt they’d do that, especially considering how upfront they’ve been with Nic


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[TY24]

Can't remember where I read/heard it (might have been the eagles board) but have read it a couple of places. Something about not wanting to let supporters know because membership or some garbage. No idea if true or not.

Haggers also said he was suspicious that he might be much further away than WC are letting on. Of course you'd be well within your rights to think the opposite of that one.

If that’s true I’d be incredibly disappointed with the club, I doubt they’d do that, especially considering how upfront they’ve been with Nic


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Joao]

If that’s true I’d be incredibly disappointed with the club, I doubt they’d do that, especially considering how upfront they’ve been with Nic


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

I think it is reasonable to take it with a grain of salt until something official comes out. Just one of those things (like say anything Harley for us) where a bit of smoke makes you nervous about fire.

Gun player, love watching him play.

 

[Trav 20]

Here's the thing though, it wasn't just the 3rd quarter when you had your "C-team" in the middle, we'd worked our way back into the game by about the middle of the 2nd quarter and by the end of that quarter we were on top in general play (hence having the 4 scoring shots to 1 in the last 18 or so minutes of that quarter).

From the 11 minute mark of the 2nd to the 23min mark of the 3rd (when Steven went off, as we were having the shot that put us a goal up) we outscored you 8.4 to 1.1, and it wasn't until the 29 min mark of that quarter that you got your next goal, so by that stage we'd kept you to 1 goal 3 in over a quarter and a half of footy, while scoring 8.5 ourselves.

So while I'm sure it helped us that you didn't have your A-team in the middle in that 3rd quarter, it sure as shit didn't help us that we lost the driving force from our midfield for that last 35 minutes of the game (meaning he played just 48% game time- for 19 disposals, a goal, and 5 clearances, tackles and score involvements) and like you we were also experimenting throughout the game.

For instance I'm pretty sure that Armitage and Steele (who both usually play basically exclusively midfield) both spent the whole first quarter playing forward, while we had Rohan Marshall rucking against Gawn for a big chunk of the 2nd half, then playing on Hogan down back later in the game, so all this stuff is why I think too much can be read into the results of praccy matches, when there are no points on the line, and teams have different objectives and hunger levels.

For us I think the main thing we take out of it is that we did get our game going eventually (once we stopped with the crazy amount of handballs and once Bruce in particular started clunking his marks) and that when we did we were able to dominate a team that could be pretty good this year, and who were dominant themselves earlier in the game.

I wouldn't say you were on top in general play at the end of the first, you were still down by 33 points before getting a goal on the siren. There are small ebb and flows in most quarters, but it's a bit of a reach to say the team that's 5 goals down is on top. You really are a blue sky junkie.

I watched the third quarter again last night and the Dees had the cue in the rack. Our prime on-ballers are Viney, Oliver, Jones, Petracca, and Tyson. The next grouping includes Brayshaw, Salem, Harmes (didn't play), and Maynard. There were 8 centre square ball-ups in the third quarter. Salem attended 6 of them, Brayshaw 5, and Maynard 5. Viney didn't play, while Jones and Tyson didn't attend one centre square bounce in the third. But it's not just the centre square set-up, those players then become the main on-ballers for stoppages and play around the ground for the next stint of play. It's little surprise the Saints got a run on. But look, you had virtually your best team in and can play some good footy. As I've already alluded to, the Dees intensity had dropped noticeably. They ramped it up in the last and had a comfortable 4 goal win.

Missing from our best 22 were Viney, Lewis, Tom McDonald (all leaders) and James Harmes, who's had a fantastic preseason and was great in AFLX and JLT1 with 18 possessions and 2 goals (shorter version match).

Also, our matchup for McCartin (Oscar McDonald) didn't see out the first quarter. And yes, Steven went off I think late in the third.

Other than Longer, who's relatively a like for like with Hickey, I suspect you played your best 22. It could be argued that Gilbert and Weller are in that best team, but also that they're not.