Play Nice 2018 Ladder Predictions

[Freomaniac]

So glad to see an opposition supporter recognise our back line. Unfamiliar names to many now but man do they get the job done.

Agree I’m happy our backline isn’t as highly rated as it probably should be. Hopefully it means the recruiters stay away with less hype highlighting just how good our young defense has been. Some of these names, opposition supporters would have no idea how well they played in 2017 or the potential they showed.

2nd best defense for points allowed last year and the age profile is perfect:

Clurey 23
Jonas 26
DBJ 22
Pittard 26
Hombsch 24
Hartlett 27
Houston 20
Howard 20
Broadbent for depth 27

Neutrals say that our back line is our biggest weakness when it's quite possibly the exact opposite.

Going to Be brutally honest. I seriously thought Ports defence was going to struggle In 2017 with Ali Carlisle retiring last year to that knee injury. Port only conceded around 75 points a game last year

 

[baldandbroke]

Richmond.....massive holes in the list? would like to hear them.

As for the hawks we have Ceglar, Rioli, Frawley, Birchall, Stratton to come back and added Impey. Big star O'Meara to be healthy and roughy to be back to fitness.
We are more set than the pies

People seem to forget that the Tigers have been building for a number of years ... sure 2016 was a bump in the road - but they are anything but a bunch of no-ones.

They had the advantage of a good run in the fixture thanks to the poor 2016, but they also had the quality to capitalise on it.

 

[Godzke]

That username is unbelievable. Your posts will always be liked by me irrespective of what you say because of that username. I am actually still applauding you for that creativity.

Why don't you ask him for his grinder username while you're at it?

 

[baldandbroke]

Going to Be brutally honest. I seriously thought Ports defence was going to struggle In 2017 with Ali Carlisle retiring last year to that knee injury. Port only conceded around 75 points a game last year

When people quote "best defence" or "best attack" based purely on points against / points for ... you need to look at who they played / when / where to get a better picture.

Power Against bottom 4 - 6 wins, 0 losses @ 252%
Power against top 4 - 0 wins, 5 losses @ 71%

Compare that to the next team on the ladder, Sydney:

Swans against bottom 4 - 5 wins, 1 loss @ 162%
Swans Against top 4 - 4 wins, 1 loss @ 107%

Power have signed up some experienced players after a year where they won 2 games in the whole season against top 8 teams - round 1 against a depleted Sydney, and round 16 against West Coast without Kennedy. I'm sure there is improvement in those new players, but if you ask the new recruits' ex-supporters I reckon you wouldn't get too many glowing reviews. Rockliff is a genuinely good player and he will rotate well with Gray and Wingard, but Motlop and Watts? I wouldn't be banking on those two to deliver anyone to the promised land. Could be completely wrong here, and maybe the Power fly into 2018 and dominate the comp. I might have my Crows goggles fastened on a bit tight ... but I just don't see it.

 

[Madtiger2006]

Wouldn't rule you guys out dropping down a few places on the ladder but I'm more inclined to have your team in and around the top 4. You'll probably be in premiership contention again I'd imagine.

I had dogs for top 4. Reckon having a premiership team 7-9 is too disrespectful. Of course it can happen but to say it definitely will is wrong

 

[Madtiger2006]

The main thing IMO is a lot of the other teams rely on a younger core, eg Saints with McCartin Dunstan Longer Steele etc. Dee's with Oliver Hogan Oscar Lever, GWS with Kelly Lobb Patton etc. Dogs with Bont Boyd Young
. These teams's performances have a higher variance, yes, but their youth means people are more obliged to think they have plenty of improvement left. It's custom off season/pre season hype that peters out as soon as the real games begin

If Richmond maintain that finals series type performance next year they'll finish top 2 IMO. They will need someone to take pressure off Dusty as he will be targeted even more next year, and Moore/Lennon probably need to break into the best 22 otherwise other teams wilL start to capitalise on the Tigers' lack of size.

Not too worried about the tall forward thing. Moore and Griffiths are there if we need them. We are well positioned to grab 2 talented young tall forwards in the draft. Most clubs will be taking mids early on. We’ll have some quality to choose from with 17, 20 and 25

 

[Ron The Bear]

I had dogs for top 4. Reckon having a premiership team 7-9 is too disrespectful. Of course it can happen but to say it definitely will is wrong

A lot of it is based on "gut feel" and I can understand how many have us dropping, perhaps even out of the eight. I draw the line at putting us in the bottom four though. That just reeks of bias.

 

[Bokonon_]

A lot of it is based on "gut feel" and I can understand how many have us dropping, perhaps even out of the eight. I draw the line at putting us in the bottom four though. That just reeks of bias.

I think there's a strong fallacy that each year will follow the previous one. It's unusual for the premiers to miss the 8 the following year, by definition they are a very good side and need to drop sharply.

I can't see Richmond missing finals and expect they will contend. Where they go in finals depends on how they fare with injuries, and whether Hardwick can adapt and find improvement tactically and in team selection.

 

[Bazza97]

I had dogs for top 4. Reckon having a premiership team 7-9 is too disrespectful. Of course it can happen but to say it definitely will is wrong

I'm sure there is quite a bit of hope in those predictions of Richmond dropping down the ladder and even out of the 8. Very confident you'll make the finals again. I reckon you're more likely to win the flag for the 2nd time in a row compared to the Dogs but that is easy for me to say in hindsight.

 

[Papa G]

When people quote "best defence" or "best attack" based purely on points against / points for ... you need to look at who they played / when / where to get a better picture.

Power Against bottom 4 - 6 wins, 0 losses @ 252%
Power against top 4 - 0 wins, 5 losses @ 71%

Compare that to the next team on the ladder, Sydney:

Swans against bottom 4 - 5 wins, 1 loss @ 162%
Swans Against top 4 - 4 wins, 1 loss @ 107%

Power have signed up some experienced players after a year where they won 2 games in the whole season against top 8 teams - round 1 against a depleted Sydney, and round 16 against West Coast without Kennedy. I'm sure there is improvement in those new players, but if you ask the new recruits' ex-supporters I reckon you wouldn't get too many glowing reviews. Rockliff is a genuinely good player and he will rotate well with Gray and Wingard, but Motlop and Watts? I wouldn't be banking on those two to deliver anyone to the promised land. Could be completely wrong here, and maybe the Power fly into 2018 and dominate the comp. I might have my Crows goggles fastened on a bit tight ... but I just don't see it.

Sydney were not depleted in Round 1. Heeney, McVeigh and Rohan were the only best 22 players who didn't play. Hardly depleted.

 

[baldandbroke]

Sydney were not depleted in Round 1. Heeney, McVeigh and Rohan were the only best 22 players who didn't play. Hardly depleted.

They were depleted and performing at their lowest ebb.

 

[DazalenkoUBewty]

Rockliff is a genuinely good player and he will rotate well with Gray and Wingard, but Motlop and Watts? I wouldn't be banking on those two to deliver anyone to the promised land. Could be completely wrong here, and maybe the Power fly into 2018 and dominate the comp. I might have my Crows goggles fastened on a bit tight ... but I just don't see it.

 

[matt_y106]

1. Sydney.
All the ingredients are there. Attitude is there, belief is there, the motivating pain is there. Grand finalists.

2. Adelaide.
Still have the class to be top, but the game style can break down when the run is cut off and pressure amped up.

3. Port.
Could've been top 4 in 2017 but for some lapses. Brought in class. The pain of that extra time final loss should stamp out any laziness-based inconsistency.

4. GWS.
Keep shipping out potential stars, but still have plenty. Could maybe do with a few tiger-style workmen to balance the egos. Losing another prelim would be agonizing.

5. Melbourne.
Love this nicely balanced list. Expect it to click. Could even go top 4 and sneak the cup.

6. Geelong.
Still very competitive, but I think they might have issues keeping all they key planks on the park all season. Perhaps overly reliant on a handful of players.

7. Western Bulldogs.
The hangover is over. If they can get the grunt back they wipe 2017 and get back to where they were. Seem to have addressed some culture problems. Trengove a very handy pick up.

8. Richmond.
They got on the right side of a lot of close ones this year. With a tougher draw, they will now be hunted and can expect that pressure back their way. Solid depth though.

9. Essendon.
Added class and will improve, but are still exposed in the clearance department and can expect a much harder fixture. Need a kid to step up to replace Watson. Like Carlton, this will be their lowest finish for several years.

10. St Kilda.
Can expect their youth to come on a bit, but this is the ceiling with the holes they have on the list. Could sneak top 8 if it all goes right.

11. Brisbane.
Have a great crop of youngsters, especially the spine, and will surprise many with their improvement from within. Beams must not get injured.

12. Hawthorn.
Middling out. Getting the best out of their youth, but could have done with some higher picks the last few years. Big shoes for the emerging players to fill. It will take a little time.

13. Fremantle.
Tough one to place. I simultaneously feel that they are better then I think, and worse then I think. Should improve, but are vulnerable to injury.

14. Carlton.
Good batch of younguns will come on a bit and balance the loss of Gibbs. This will be their lowest finish for years to come.

15. Collingwood.
Will win the clearances in more than half their games, but won't convert on the scoreboard. Huge pressure on the forward line, Elliot crucial. Defence a little leaky as well. List management has been... bizarre. Trending down.

16. WC.
Aging list, have lost grunt and experience, and the internal belief is that they will go down before up. That belief will infect the playing group on the field (not as bad as north though). Implosion incoming.

17. GC.
10 games away from home to start the season is probably going to kill any self belief that the playing group can muster. Lost their BnF winner. Dew clearly likes a challenge.

18. North.
Outputs > inputs, without much hope on the near horizon. Doing the rebuild thing perhaps a little too aggressively, and the short term pain will sting.

GF. Sydney vs Melbourne

Clearly didn't watch us this year then...

 

[captain ebert]

They were depleted and performing at their lowest ebb.

What does that mean? Performing at lowest ebb - at round 1?? So what level was their ebb the following 5 weeks?

 

[singaport]

In the recent past has any team come back from a 100+ points defeat in a GF to play in the following year GF or win it? What does AFL history show?

 

[Bokonon_]

In the recent past has any team come back from a 100+ points defeat in a GF to play in the following year GF or win it? What does AFL history show?

Bombers 84
Same side in the Hawks.

 

[gordo2016]

1. GWS
2. Richmond
3. Melbourne
4. Geelong
5. Port Adelaide
6. Adelaide
7. St.Kilda
8. Sydney
9. Bulldogs
10. Hawthorn
11. West Coast
12. Collingwood
13. Gold Coast
14. Carlton
15. North Melbourne
16. Fremantle
17. Brisbane
18. Essendon.
Premiers: Melbourne
Runners Up: GWS
Brownlow: Gary Ablett

 

[the view]

Think Richmond will finish 7th-10th next year.

totally agree around 6 - 12 .and lucky if they make the finals at all

 

[singaport]

Bombers 84
Same side in the Hawks.

I thought Bombers won 84 after losing by 83 in 83 (spooky) the year before

 

[Madtiger2006]

totally agree around 6 - 12 .and lucky if they make the finals at all

Based on finishing top of the ladder this year. Great work bro

 

[Rack Watts]

This is the ladder predictions thread, not tiggers getting triggered because people think they'll have a hangover/don't rate their list.

 

[Rack Watts]

18. Essendon

Dodoro got you all hot under the collar Gordon? It's okay mate, it's Richmond's time to have a hangover.

 

[Stoods]

don't get me wrong i agree i don't see us finishing top 4, but i will say, hasn't the last couple seasons of footy taught you to expect the unexpected? you of all people should know that!

 

[baldandbroke]

What does that mean? Performing at lowest ebb - at round 1?? So what level was their ebb the following 5 weeks?

At the same low level.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

1. SYDNEY - very hard to go past the Swans.. they havent done much over the offseason but they dont have to. Theyre still in their prime.
2. GEELONG - Danger, Selwood, Duncan, Ablett.. wow, i think they are poised to do really well next season.. but they are in a delicate position, need to cash in or risk a big fall soon.
3. ADELAIDE - i think they lost more than they gained this offseason, and the ACL to whatshisname is an under referenced concern. But Gibbs adds a hell of a lot and they will always be in the hunt.
4. GWS - depth is getting really tested... but top line talent is still there. Need a good run with injuries to stay in the chase.
5. PORT ADELAIDE - added a lot, but what they added were flaky, conditional players (outside Rocky) question is.. can they beat the top 4 teams? They need to find a way.
6. ESSENDON - didnt do enough to improve off season. Stringer may be a boon but the rest wont add much to their side. Merrett's end to the season should leave a few fans a little worried.. was he found out?? Need a lot from Heppel and i dunno if he can deliver.
7. MELBOURNE - can they finally make it? I think they just scrape in. Look for Petracca to have an enormous season.
8. RICHMOND - hangover, harder draw, lack of class identified. An injury to Rance, Cotch or Martin could see them even lower. Richmond fans will be in for a tough year but still scrape in due to a pretty even competition.
9. WEST COAST - west coast will never drop low enough to not be in the hunt with their constant drive to win and free flowing bribes to AFL officials at home games.. but they havent got the class to make the 8, Nic Nat a concern too.
10. CARLTON - the loss of Gibbs will hurt, but i still foresee improvement. Look to Kennedy, Curnow and Weitering to have really big breakout years in their third season. Need Cripps to stay healthy.
11. ST KILDA - I-ll admit, i have no respect for this side. I forecast another middling season, loss of Riewoldt will hurt...
12. FREMANTLE - is this about the spot for Freo? Fyfe looking good again but just dont have the talent across the park to play Lyon's game. Hopefully they spend the year developing the kids.
13.. WESTERN BULLDOGS - dont underestimate the trouble they are in. Forward line a mess.. loss of a tonne of experience.. im not buying into a big performance.
14. HAWTHORN - i just can't see it, the cliff is coming, no youth besides Burton and the old heads are gone or passed it. Will want to keep their draft pick for next year.
15. COLLINGWOOD - what are they doing.. going no where fast. Will struggle next season.
16. BRISBANE - the pieces are there but they probably need a little longer to develop.
17. GOLD COAST - lost a champion, lost saad, gained Weller but i just cant see them doing too much.
18. NORTH MELBOURNE - no doubt in my mind they are locked in for the spoon. Just an awful, old list, devoid of youth and will not have any natural growth. Fans will be watching the King Bros and the Adelaide boys from week 5 at the latest