Analysis 2018 List Management discussion Part 1 (continued in Part 2 - see OP for link)

[Blubagger71]

That’s where back in the VFL days were better for players development with players from the WAFL & SANFL getting games & years under their belt (in competitive leagues).

VIC players through the U/19’s into reserves to league footy.

There is merit in increasing the draft age but that then sanctions some of the younger players that are ready to go.

There’s nothing wrong with waiting for a player to hit their straps in a state league (e.g. T. Kelly, Liam Ryan but you probably need to bite the bullet a season earlier than what was triggered for a draft win vs premium pick) after maturing a little more than a 18yo (mind & body). Or there’s the Menegola & Luke Ryan gold late picks.

We’ve used the rookie list with different angles with just out of the National Draft selections & older support players but think Le Bois may be on the JGM 3yr development program.

SOS played in a Reggie's premiership in 1986. It's OK the take time and learn. We are very harsh judges at times with these kids. We in in a luxurious position to take our time. It's frustrating as buggery but will be worth the wait.

 

[Blubagger71]

I think we have 4 needs to look at in the trade period. I really hope we don’t trade our first pick unless it’s for something amazing. I have also left Gaff off of my list because I don’t think he’ll leave West Coast to come to Carlton but he should be our number 1 target.

Our number one need is an inside midfielder. Angus Brayshaw would be my first choice like Gaff I can’t see him leaving but Tyson I think is get able and at 25 he is ready to go and he’s best football is a head of him. Wallis as a out of favour free agent has to be looked at. Miles has been out of favour at the tigers for two season now and is way to good to be in the VFL. Brodie was a first round pick that’s barely played a game, looked AFL ready when drafted but like most Suns doesn’t look fit enough. Barlow at 30 still looks like he has a year or two left but maybe to old.

Our number two need is a defensive small forward. Neade would be a great pick up. Lovell is a young unproven but could also midfield forward. I would also love to see Garlett in navy blue again. Sam Lloyd is one of the tiger forwards which is get able but I’ll like to get any tiger forward. Fasolo isn’t a defensive forward but is a goal kicker and a free agent.

Our number three need is running defender or winger. Hunt would be my first choice he’s speed and kicking would add lot of run missing since Tuohy left. Thurlow would be a good get and is highly skilled. Scrimshaw my be too tall for our backline but is a high skilled left footer. Newman or Lloyd should also be looked at.

We also need a young ruckman. O’Brien is a little sauce and at 22 should be ready to set up. Pittonet is a good young ruck that has good tap work and works well around the ground. We could just wait.

Very thoughtful

 

[Toddski]

always easy to criticise from the stands

Haha you guys crack me up. What is the point of a football forum if you can't criticise from the stands?

Once again, step down from your high horse.

 

[Soapy V]

What is the point of a football forum if you can't criticise from the stands?.

Says it all

 

[Toddski]

LOL calm down. Just pointing out he's not always right...

You're not allowed to have an opinion that doesn't align with the "experts" on here mate.

Don't even think of being critical. Welcome to the echo chamber of blind faith and positivity.

 

[Toddski]

Says it all

Hahah dear oh dear.. are you wrapped in cotton wool in real life?

 

[Foucault1989]

He really isn't. CAN NOT DEFEND.

Only played 18 games as an AFL defender. Still learning the craft

 

[Soapy V]

You're not allowed to have an opinion that doesn't align with the "experts" on here mate.

Don't even think of being critical. Welcome to the echo chamber of blind faith and positivity.

Not surprised you see it that way

Nothing wrong with considered criticism but just continually whinging is different. It’s the whiners that complain and play the victim when people don’t agree

 

[Arr0w]

Not surprised you see it that way

Nothing wrong with considered criticism but just continually whinging is different. It’s the whiners that complain when people don’t agree

Easy to discredit someone like KM by pulling out one name, yet not being brave enough to document you your own thought prior to the event

 

[Metalcrusher]

Haha you guys crack me up. What is the point of a football forum if you can't criticise from the stands?

Once again, step down from your high horse.

Says it all

You're not allowed to have an opinion that doesn't align with the "experts" on here mate.

Don't even think of being critical. Welcome to the echo chamber of blind faith and positivity.

Hahah dear oh dear.. are you wrapped in cotton wool in real life?

Not surprised you see it that way

Nothing wrong with considered criticism but just continually whinging is different. It’s the whiners that complain and play the victim when people don’t agree

FFS …. is this ****ing ground hog day again???

C'mon guys.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Im curious what we do re our rucks at the end of the year. Kruze will not get more durable with age.
Lobbe is likely to never get a game unless we are out of options.
Phillips has showed signs but also hasn't had a breakout game.
TDK more of a forward that can ruck?

Will we look at a young future first ruckman?

Not in our first 4 picks please, certainly not a priority at the moment and unless there’s a ruck that “we cannot believe is still there” at our next pick then rookie draft at best

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Fair enough mate, but that kinda goes without saying since none of them are "always right".

Yes, exactly my point. He said "we cannot afford to trade away the opportunity to grab this guy if he really is that good" so how are we supposed to know "if he is that good"? That's quite an if statement there and we're basing it on what 'experts' are saying like as if they can predict the future.

All I'm saying is, we should be open to trading #1 if it means we can get something great in return for it. Pick #2 + Brodie and Scrimshaw would be just that in return for #1 + change. Even though it's not going to happen.

 

[Bluey24]

I have been thinking about Melbourne (2013 onwards) being the 'blueprint' for Carlton's rebuild (2015 onwards).

There's lots of similarities; starting from bottom of the ladder, coming off a rough decade, new coach, new admin, drafting lots of kids etc. Melbourne were said to have hit the draft heavily and rebuilt with kids.

The media is starting to draw similarities too, especially since Melbourne looks on track to make finals this year. That means that the media can start putting 2020 as a target on Bolton's back to make finals (rightly or wrongly).

However, I looked through Bluey's fabulous post above and the two rebuilds don't look so similar.

View attachment 517587

Notes/conclusions:

• We turfed out 25 players vs Melbourne's 15 over the 3 years - a culling more vicious by two thirds
• Melbourne actually traded in a lot of experience intended to be best 22; guys like Cross, Vince, Garlett, Lumumba, Melksham were drafted in to make the team better immediately.
• Melbourne actually traded OUT of the 2nd round twice to acquire experience. The only extra top pick* they acquired was through sheer luck (Frawley). Overall they recruited less top 40 kids than if they'd just taken their natural picks to the draft.
• Carlton traded in mostly kids; guys that will make us better in the long-run, but worse in the short run
• Our players traded in were on average younger than Melbourne, but also significantly less experienced (and usually a lot more injured)
• We have traded in our share of older players (still not as many as Melb), but these guys were not meant to make us better. Either they were SOS shenanigans (salary dump) or backup. Either way they add to our list age, but don't make us better
• Carlton hit the draft MUCH harder; both in the first and second rounds we picked up at least 50% more kids
• Carlton recruited MANY more players for the long-term, many more for the medium term and less for the short-term

Fine print []

• The adjusted figures above are taking out the impact of Lobbe, Palmer & O'Shea; these guys I think were only ever meant as salary dump/backup. For Melbourne, I took out Cross (even though he was recruited to be best 22 in the short-term
• I defined players as long term 18-22, medium term 23-27, short-term 28
• *I have removed one Melbourne Top 20/40 pick, because they traded out their 2016 1st rounder in the process (so they could get Oliver and Weideman in 2015). I don't count this as 'hitting the draft harder' but rather a classification/timing issue. Basically they stole from themselves, not manufactured an extra pick
• I have ignored the rookie draft because... CBF
• This is not meant as a criticism of Melbourne's rebuild (I am really impressed with what they have done). It is simply to highlight the different approaches
• If I was the AFL walking into Melbourne's office at end of 2013 and demanding they get better immediately and over time, then they have completely met the brief. Equally if I was Carlton and told SOS that he should napalm the list and rebuild from scratch to deliver a list that is capable of winning flags in time, then I think he too is meeting the brief very well.
• TL;DR. The 2 rebuilds are actually VERY different. Melbourne had a balanced list turnover and recruited very cleverly to get better in year 1, then better again in year 2, then year 3 and so on. Actually quite a traditional (and impressive) rebuild, and net they traded OUT of the draft slightly to get better. Carlton's rebuild (by trading out talent to aggressively get more draft picks and young players in trades) recruited to get worse in the short-term and much better in the long run.
• [] posted this on my phone and the formatting is f'd. Sorry

Top post, Ferris. Makes a lot of sense

 

[Benaly28]

Would we trade pick 1 for Dylan Shiel?

 

[FairKouta]

Would we trade pick 1 for Dylan Shiel?

no

 

[ESKIE]

I’m in the don’t trade the pick one

But what would I know

 

[Navara79]

Would we trade pick 1 for Dylan Shiel?

Simmo was asked that On The Couch. He said he would.

 

[katmanblue]

Only played 18 games as an AFL defender. Still learning the craft

Beginning to despise the word 'craft'.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Arr0w]

I’m in the don’t trade the pick one

But what would I know

You know heaps Eskie

 

[Prem17]

I’m in the don’t trade the pick one

But what would I know

It would have to be a brilliant deal.
I can't see us wanting multiple picks for the draft in exchange for pick 1.
If we were to trade pick 1, you would think that it would have to be for a gun mid, and a swap of latter picks.
Or, pick 1 for a top 5 selection and a few other picks thrown in that we could package up either for established mids and/or pick upgrades.

I think it will depend on whether we can attract any F/A or not.

 

[ESKIE]

You know heaps Eskie

I won’t tell Arr0w

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I’m in the don’t trade the pick one

But what would I know

Doesn't matter, you're entitled to your opinion.

None of us really know anything about trade period yet anyway. The point, is we chat about it on here and see what others are thinking. Nothing we say will influence the outcome.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Simmo was asked that On The Couch. He said he would.

He's not the sharpest tool in the shed. Why trade pick #1 for Shiel when he's a free agent next year? It's not like he's going to want out this year with 1 year left on his contract.

 

[Navara79]

He's not the sharpest tool in the shed. Why trade pick #1 for Shiel when he's a free agent next year? It's not like he's going to want out this year with 1 year left on his contract.

Because players know when other players are coming in and out of contract.... Pull your head in.

Oh and maybe go and watch the interview for context.

 

[bigm386]

Not in our first 4 picks please, certainly not a priority at the moment and unless there’s a ruck that “we cannot believe is still there” at our next pick then rookie draft at best

It's rare for a ruckman to go first round, from memory Tim English was the last one?

I'd say a promising ruckman can be found between picks 30-50. But that's a stab