Autopsy 2018 post-trade week wrap!

[spotthedog1]

Hindsight is great.. if we kept pick 5 we could of went for Ahern who went 7 and got injured only getting games with North this year
Or Weller as local who will ever know.
25 was on traded to North who picked Nielson who been de listed if I remember this year.

So it is chook lotto with picks.
Tambling over Franklin

Honestly said on a few threads you can see where the hawks are coming from. Pick mature or known players with late draft picks
Trade firsts for known players and pick up free agency players.
While moving on players for cap space.

Huge can of worms there. It's a true sliding doors scenario. If De Goey came up here, he might've matured faster, not got the ego, and been both a star and a great clubman. He also could've not developed at all and been delisted. We might have drafted Ahern, who may or may not have got injured and might've turned into a gun, or just turned into a pumpkin. Impossible to tell.

"It's a chook lotto" is both true and incredibly, incredibly false. At the end of the day, high picks have a higher probability of being stars. The games played, brownlow votes, and pretty much every metric you can measure shows that you have a better chance with a higher pick. You can strike gold at pick 100, but you wouldn't trade pick 1 for it.

Tambling over Franklin is a regular refrain, but ignores that it was also Deledio, Roughead and Griffin all over Tambling. The scouts still picked Franklin over 66 of his peers. In the top 5, there were four 'A' graders. They have combined for 1205 games (and they aren't done). The bottom five in the same draft combined for 192 games (116 of which were Daniel Pratt, who, it should be noted, still played less games than Tambling).

 

[dlanod]

We tried the hawks strategy in 2010 and it blew up in our faces.

Hawks haven't brought in anyone that cost as much as Fev, and that was the main recruitment that hampered us. The others were generally nothing for nothing trades, and we got decent service out of several.

 

[davemc_lions]

It still a game of chance. Why I did not mind the Cameron or Neale move the last few years.
We got a lot of talented kids in the previous years so want players around the same ages to push through together..
Also injury if Close did not do the knee at Etihad etc... You will never know

Also culture and who they learn from and who is there to support them onfield

Some players ranked high do not come on and a lot picked up late turn out great players
2013 late draft picks
3 50 Nathan Gordon Richmond North Adelaide SANFL
3 51 Nick Holman Carlton Murray Bushrangers TAC Cup
3 52 Darcy Byrne-Jones Port Adelaide Oakleigh Chargers TAC Cup
3 53 Passed Sydney — —
3 54 Josh Walker Geelong Rookie elevation AFL
3 55 Orazio Fantasia Essendon Norwood SANFL Traded from Fremantle
3 56 James Sicily Hawthorn Western Jets TAC Cup
4 57 Jayden Hunt Melbourne Brighton Grammar APS Traded from Greater Western Sydney
4 58 Brady Grey Fremantle Burnie TSL Traded from Melbourne
4 59 John Ceglar Hawthorn Rookie elevation AFL Traded from St Kilda
4 60 Mitch Honeychurch Western Bulldogs Eastern Ranges TAC Cup
4 61 Jamie Bennell West Coast Rookie elevation AFL
4 62 Jonathan Freeman Brisbane Lions Aspley NEAFL Academy player
4 63 George Burbury Geelong Rookie elevation AFL Traded from Adelaide
4 64 Lauchlan Dalgleish Essendon Rookie elevation AFL
4 65 Tom Langdon Collingwood Sandringham Dragons TAC Cup
4 66 Sam Lloyd Richmond Frankston VFL
4 67 Passed Carlton — —
4 68 Karl Amon Port Adelaide Sandringham Dragons TAC Cup

 

[Tom14]

Its amazing how people find so many new ways to be unhappy.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Trade period in theory should be clubs doing deals where they give a little and gain a little.

The end result should therefore look more like a restructure rather than a net win in the overall strength of your list. Feels like that is what we accomplished.

 

[spotthedog1]

It still a game of chance. Why I did not mind the Cameron or Neale move the last few years.
We got a lot of talented kids in the previous years so want players around the same ages to push through together..
Also injury if Close did not do the knee at Etihad etc... You will never know

Also culture and who they learn from and who is there to support them onfield

Some players ranked high do not come on and a lot picked up late turn out great players
2013 late draft picks
3 50 Nathan Gordon Richmond North Adelaide SANFL
3 51 Nick Holman Carlton Murray Bushrangers TAC Cup
3 52 Darcy Byrne-Jones Port Adelaide Oakleigh Chargers TAC Cup
3 53 Passed Sydney — —
3 54 Josh Walker Geelong Rookie elevation AFL
3 55 Orazio Fantasia Essendon Norwood SANFL Traded from Fremantle
3 56 James Sicily Hawthorn Western Jets TAC Cup
4 57 Jayden Hunt Melbourne Brighton Grammar APS Traded from Greater Western Sydney
4 58 Brady Grey Fremantle Burnie TSL Traded from Melbourne
4 59 John Ceglar Hawthorn Rookie elevation AFL Traded from St Kilda
4 60 Mitch Honeychurch Western Bulldogs Eastern Ranges TAC Cup
4 61 Jamie Bennell West Coast Rookie elevation AFL
4 62 Jonathan Freeman Brisbane Lions Aspley NEAFL Academy player
4 63 George Burbury Geelong Rookie elevation AFL Traded from Adelaide
4 64 Lauchlan Dalgleish Essendon Rookie elevation AFL
4 65 Tom Langdon Collingwood Sandringham Dragons TAC Cup
4 66 Sam Lloyd Richmond Frankston VFL
4 67 Passed Carlton — —
4 68 Karl Amon Port Adelaide Sandringham Dragons TAC Cup

Of course there's an element of chance, but there's also an element of research and skill. You've cherry picked 2013's 3rd-4th round there, and there are some reasonable B/C graders there. But no A graders... I count just 3 A Graders so far that have come out of that draft. Do you want to guess what round they were all drafted in? Kelly was pick 2, Bont was pick 4, Cripps was pick 13.

There is definitely an element of chance. But the vast majority of A grade talent comes from earlier picks.

 

[Pancho Gonzales]

Of course there's an element of chance, but there's also an element of research and skill. You've cherry picked 2013's 3rd-4th round there, and there are some reasonable B/C graders there. But no A graders... I count just 3 A Graders so far that have come out of that draft. Do you want to guess what round they were all drafted in? Kelly was pick 2, Bont was pick 4, Cripps was pick 13.

There is definitely an element of chance. But the vast majority of A grade talent comes from earlier picks.

I remember listening to David Parkin once and he talked about how Sam Mitchell was the perfect example of how recruiters can get it 'wrong' - short, fat, slow and yet look what he became. All great points except for every Mitchell there are hundreds of hopefuls who are short fat and slow AND will never make it. While not an exact science, every year more and more resources go into a club's drafting strategy. A first round pick could cost a club $1M, so you want to make that pick count. So revisiting drafts from years ago isn't exactly apples with apples. Speculation is fine and hindsight can reveal great drafting, but I agree - the bulk of the games future stars are going to be drafted early.

 

[briztoon]

Trade period in theory should be clubs doing deals where they give a little and gain a little.

The end result should therefore look more like a restructure rather than a net win in the overall strength of your list. Feels like that is what we accomplished.

I feel like it was somewhat more than a minor net loss.

 

[Hollow Knight]

I feel like it was somewhat more than a minor net loss.

I don’t. Time will be the only way to tell though.

 

[Nunez]

I don’t. Time will be the only way to tell though.

Exactly. No way we can truly judge the success/failure of the trade period for probably a few years. Collingwoods picks might give us two 200 gamers and pick 6 might be a King twin who can't get on the park due to inuries. Of course it could be vice versa but who's to know.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Its amazing how people find so many new ways to be unhappy.

Yeah I much prefer the old ways.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Of course there's an element of chance, but there's also an element of research and skill. You've cherry picked 2013's 3rd-4th round there, and there are some reasonable B/C graders there. But no A graders... I count just 3 A Graders so far that have come out of that draft. Do you want to guess what round they were all drafted in? Kelly was pick 2, Bont was pick 4, Cripps was pick 13.

There is definitely an element of chance. But the vast majority of A grade talent comes from earlier picks.

I don’t mind the rising star. Even if not an A grader.

 

[Tom14]

Yeah I much prefer the old ways.

Yep, no need to invent new reasons. Lotta Chicken Littles about in this thread.

 

[Tairy Greene]

All I know is we've got a bonafide inside gun that we've been crying out for for years & we don't have to wait to develop.

 

[Tom14]

All I know is we've got a bonafide inside gun that we've been crying out for for years & we don't have to wait to develop.

Truly incredible the amount of nit-picking happening over something this exciting. The first really good player who has actually wanted to come to us who doesn't have a family/personal reason to go to Queensland and people are still whinging about it a week later. We've taken a lot of early picks the last few years, we can afford to have slightly later picks this year and next.

 

[Tom14]

Hawks haven't brought in anyone that cost as much as Fev, and that was the main recruitment that hampered us. The others were generally nothing for nothing trades, and we got decent service out of several.

But also, its not like we have abandoned the draft this year as we did in 2009. We've only lost Beams who ideally we would have liked to have keep, but we got a good return out of it. You can nitpick and say we paid slightly more than we should have for Neale and Adams, but we got more than we probably should have for Beams and Mayes (how did we get pick 35 for him?). McCarthy cost nothing draft pick wise.

Trade period was a mixed bag. But continuing to whinge about the acquisition of neale, who will be in our best 3 players next year (if not the best) is baffling.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Truly incredible the amount of nit-picking happening over something this exciting. The first really good player who has actually wanted to come to us who doesn't have a family/personal reason to go to Queensland and people are still whinging about it a week later. We've taken a lot of early picks the last few years, we can afford to have slightly later picks this year and next.

We could get lucky with pick 18. And next year we have enough decent picks to go higher up the order if needed.

 

[dlanod]

I don’t. Time will be the only way to tell though.

On the contrary view, we're better off commenting now because hindsight is 20/20. If we draft a gun with pick 18 and Fremantle drafts a bust at pick 5 everyone will be lauding our success but if the reverse happens, it'll be the "Beams trade is eternal failure" all over again.

 

[Tom14]

We could get lucky with pick 18. And next year we have enough decent picks to go higher up the order if needed.

We may improve and GC ends up with Pick 8, and Collingwood may fall back a bit and we could finish up with pick 14/15 - hardly a big deal! Lots of stuff can happen, but most definitely Neale is going to improve our contested footy. Worst case scenario we are bottom 4 and Collingwood are premiers - even then, we have an extra early second from GC and as you say plenty of scope to move up the draft, trade those picks for other good players or stay pat and still take 3 relatively early picks.

We will miss Beams' goal kicking from the middle, but if we have charlie for a full season and either Hippy/McStay take a step forward, then we can probably replace the lost output elsewhere.

 

[Ceebee]

All I know is we've got a bonafide inside gun that we've been crying out for for years & we don't have to wait to develop.

You said that perfectly .

 

[BRAB]

I'm backing us in to draft a gun with one of the Collingwood picks.

 

[bungalow_bill]

We could get lucky with pick 18. And next year we have enough decent picks to go higher up the order if needed.

Starcevich was drafted with pick 18. Bailey,McStay,Berry and Witherden all drafted just before or after pick 18.

 

[briztoon]

On the contrary view, we're better off commenting now because hindsight is 20/20. If we draft a gun with pick 18 and Fremantle drafts a bust at pick 5 everyone will be lauding our success but if the reverse happens, it'll be the "Beams trade is eternal failure" all over again.

I don't view the Beams trade as a failure from looking at it purely in isolation.

There are external factors in regards to Beams wanting out, which I have no wish to rehash and done my best to stat out of, that negatively impact our trade period as a whole though, purely from a list strength perspective.

However we can't escape the fact that the Beams situation and trade negatively impacted upon the Neale trade.


The Neale trade and the manoeuvring of current and future picks to make it happen, was a big negative in my books. No surprise there as I have been vocal about that.

In regards to Neale, we compare who Fremantle draft this year with our pick, but more importantly who Gold Coast draft next year with our first round pick, balanced against Neale's career with us and who we draft with Gold Coasts second round pick next year.


Purely from a picks cost point of view (and I'm not talking about the points system here, I'm talking picks at the very top of the draft order), Neale cost us more than what Geelong paid Adelaide for Dangerfield, has every chance to cost us more than the Treloar trade, easily cost us more than the Gibbs or Lever trades.

 

[dlanod]

I don't view the Beams trade as a failure from looking at it purely in isolation.

There are external factors in regards to Beams wanting out, which I have no wish to rehash and done my best to stat out of, that negatively impact our trade period as a whole though, purely from a list strength perspective.

However we can't escape the fact that the Beams situation and trade negatively impacted upon the Neale trade.


The Neale trade and the manoeuvring of current and future picks to make it happen, was a big negative in my books. No surprise there as I have been vocal about that.

In regards to Neale, we compare who Fremantle draft this year with our pick, but more importantly who Gold Coast draft next year with our first round pick, balanced against Neale's career with us and who we draft with Gold Coasts second round pick next year.


Purely from a picks cost point of view (and I'm not talking about the points system here, I'm talking picks at the very top of the draft order), Neale cost us more than what Geelong paid Adelaide for Dangerfield, has every chance to cost us more than the Treloar trade, easily cost us more than the Gibbs or Lever trades.

That's all great but I was talking about the previous Beams trade that is now condemned because of that 20/20 hindsight, despite that hindsight being based off decisions the club would not have control over, e.g drafting and retaining De Goey, keeping Crisp, etc.

 

[briztoon]

That's all great but I was talking about the previous Beams trade that is now condemned because of that 20/20 hindsight, despite that hindsight being based off decisions the club would not have control over, e.g drafting and retaining De Goey, keeping Crisp, etc.

My bad.