mpal6
Norm Smith Medallist
The big one is finally here !!!!
2 vs 3 !!
Quali at the Gabba !!
Saturday night lights !!
Both teams hold a significant advantage if they get to play prelim in their home turf so there'll be some heat when this one unfolds.
H2H:
Overall H2H looks pretty even but the stats change as expected when you flip it to Gabbatoir. Simply put, it'll take a mighty effort to take the win of Lions at Gabba, that too on a 11-0 home and away record in 2023 which has never happened before.
Midfield:
Round 1 when we got smacked we had Dunkley and Ashcroft still working out where they fit and we were largely on the round 1 mulligan mode. Fast forward to Round 24, there is a clear top 3 in the middle with Neale/Dunkley roving the Big O taps. McCluggage has stepped up his numbers to take on Ashcroft's role and between Bailey/Zorko/Deven/Rayner we have our fringe acts.
Port's spread appears a bit more even across Rozee, Butters, Horne-Francis, Wines, Drew and Finlayson. Their ruck cover seems a bit patchy over the last few weeks but Lycett has played SANFL and expected to take his spot back in first 22. Between Houston and Drew they have 2 players to shutdown Neale so the rest of Brisbane midfield needs to step up and pick up the slack.
Big O will have a big say on how our fortunes fare in the middle. I'm comfortable with Daniher against Finlayson, both will try their unconventional methods to compete/not-compete in a ruck contest and try to mop up in the follow through.
Likely 22s:
AFL website has forecasted as many as 3 or 4 changes for Port with Dixon, Lycett, McKenzie and Marshall. Ours is a straightforward McCarthy in for Lyons. I personally don't like the idea of swapping that many tall timber just prior to qualifying final but if Port goes for it and we get an advantage out of it, by all means. Change every single one of them
Way to win:
Multiple teams have tried it and even Richmond did it with Noah Balta in the last round. Aliir does not like being tagged and wrestled, we have to put some time into him and keep him engaged. It clearly goes a long way into nullifying Power's defense and whether it's Hipwood or Daniher or one of the smalls, they need to keep him engaged and not float across our forward line. I'm sure Power are thinking to do the same to Neale in the middle, he's our firestarter/barometer and him having a big game will set us up a long way in this Qualifying final.
Verdict:
Expect Power to push us hard but we've been playing the 2-3 goal margin well and keeping opposition off from running us down at Gabba.
Gabba factor, sold out home crowd, Lions primed with all healthy and available - I am hoping for a statement win with our forward line landing a 4 quarter blow. I'd love a bit of payback for that Round 1 game as well so Lions by 5+ goals.
