Preview Finals Week 1 • Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide • Saturday 9 September 2023 • 7:25 PM

[3KZ is Football]

St.Kilda v GWS is a bit of a nothing game. You would have to think Port Adelaide beats whoever wins that one.

 

[martinson]

Just don't get it that everyone has written off Collingwood.

Melbourne aren't that good.

They don't worry me.

 

[Ceebee]

I can only deal with one week at a time .
Go Lions .

 

[martinson]

Martinson is playing both Malcolm and Macduff

I consider this a great compliment . Malcolm and Macduff ,two of the most interesting ,if not infamous characters in English literature.

Being a student of Shakespeare try as I may the only two I can come up with to befit the roles played by Nunez and Elixuh on BigFooty are Launce and his dog Crab from Two Gentleman of Verona.

I don't mean it to be derogatory. They were great role players.

 

[martinson]

Jono Brown..undisputed legend of the club no arguement.
All he did earlier in the year was put s**t on The Lions and further to that said several times the club won't win a flag while Hippy & Joey are the key forwards. Him along with Kane Cornes, David King & Garry Lyon then slagged off consistently about how we missed a grand final window while staring us in the face.

Now.... Browny & others loves the club, loves Hippy & Joey and thinks we are red hot favourites!!!

I hate (& I dont use the word hate often) the way great footballers like Browny, Dunstall, Lynchy & others somewhat whore theirselves out to producers who want them to spin a story rather than tell us what they think as legends of the game. I find it sad they have to do it to make theirselves relevant rather than entertain us with their wealth of knowledge being there and done what they have done. The game would be much better without the story telling and past players who are legends of the game to just tell us how they see it. Luke Hodge is probably the only person i believe does it right.

ML you're really taking it all too seriously.

Boffins in the media have talked crap about footy since forever.

It's nothing to do with the actual game and the people involved . They're there to provide entertainment and a bit of controversy.

If every commentator was like Luke Hodge no one would listen.

Lighten up and just let it wash over.

 

[Elixuh]

I consider this a great compliment . Malcolm and Macduff ,two of the most interesting ,if not infamous characters in English literature.

Being a student of Shakespeare try as I may the only two I can come up with to befit the roles played by Nunez and Elixuh on BigFooty are Launce and his dog Crab from Two Gentleman of Verona.

I don't mean it to be derogatory. They were great role players.

Marty certain promises were made some weeks ago re if Lord Gunners returns to the side during finals. This must be a trying time.

For the record, Nuney is the dog.

 

[martinson]

Marty certain promises were made some weeks ago re if Lord Gunners returns to the side during finals. This must be a trying time.

For the record, Nuney is the dog.

Gunners is a million to one unless we totally bomb out on Saturday.

But just in case I'm wrong and the totally inconceivable happens I intend to make good on my promise which would be a better outcome than being sued for libel.

I didn't think anyone doubted that Nuney was the dog.

But you have the capacity should you so choose and the dog steals the show , so it's a role that gets lots of love.

 

[martinson]

Kenny has lost the plot with this Oppenheimer thing.

What's that got to do with footy ?

His players will be so confused , they're footy players not atom bombers.

It's just dawned on me that Kenny's intellect might be somewhat lacking . I don't think that's to his detriment as a coach but a strange time to reveal it to the world.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Jono Brown..undisputed legend of the club no arguement.
All he did earlier in the year was put s**t on The Lions and further to that said several times the club won't win a flag while Hippy & Joey are the key forwards. Him along with Kane Cornes, David King & Garry Lyon then slagged off consistently about how we missed a grand final window while staring us in the face.

Now.... Browny & others loves the club, loves Hippy & Joey and thinks we are red hot favourites!!!

I hate (& I dont use the word hate often) the way great footballers like Browny, Dunstall, Lynchy & others somewhat whore theirselves out to producers who want them to spin a story rather than tell us what they think as legends of the game. I find it sad they have to do it to make theirselves relevant rather than entertain us with their wealth of knowledge being there and done what they have done. The game would be much better without the story telling and past players who are legends of the game to just tell us how they see it. Luke Hodge is probably the only person i believe does it right.

An alternate take on this is that Browny is simply responding to what he has seen, just like we are.

And that is that since Round 3 vs the Bulldogs when Joe kicked 4 behinds and Eric kicked fresh air, both have transformed their game to become more team-oriented and dare I say it, consistent and reliable.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Nerang is already a nuclear wasteland so would be a waste of a nuke

Word has it that BRAB is renovating at the moment so the whole Oppenheimer story is actually a clever ruse where they have slid Kenny a couple of slabs of Coke Zero, the trade-off being the demolition is free AND they get the insurance payout.

 

[3KZ is Football]

I consider this a great compliment . Malcolm and Macduff ,two of the most interesting ,if not infamous characters in English literature.

Being a student of Shakespeare try as I may the only two I can come up with to befit the roles played by Nunez and Elixuh on BigFooty are Launce and his dog Crab from Two Gentleman of Verona.

I don't mean it to be derogatory. They were great role players.

martinson come on! Surely … Nunez and Elixuh are Rosencrantz and Guildenstern from Hamlet.

 

[twhowler]

IF…
The lions win the qf by a solid margin, something they have failed to do in any of their 9 finals since 2019
THEN…
Chris Fagan has to abandon his predetermined plan to bring back Gunston. Jack looked sharp after his last break, but that was after a training block and v west coast. Replacing a running player to play Gunston vs Melbourne or Collingwood would be blind loyalty.

 

[3KZ is Football]

Nunez

 

[Nunez]

IF…
The lions win the qf by a solid margin, something they have failed to do in any of their 9 finals since 2019
THEN…
Chris Fagan has to abandon his predetermined plan to bring back Gunston. Jack looked sharp after his last break, but that was after a training block and v west coast. Replacing a running player to play Gunston vs Melbourne or Collingwood would be blind loyalty.

IF...
you shoot at the King
THEN...
You best not miss. Gunston will win the Norm Smith.

 

[3KZ is Football]

IF…
The lions win the qf by a solid margin, something they have failed to do in any of their 9 finals since 2019
THEN…
Chris Fagan has to abandon his predetermined plan to bring back Gunston. Jack looked sharp after his last break, but that was after a training block and v west coast. Replacing a running player to play Gunston vs Melbourne or Collingwood would be blind loyalty.

It would be self sabotage.

 

[Nunez]

For what it's worth, I'd genuinely prefer we don't play Gunston, but don't think him playing or not will lose us a game and I can see him having a big impact in a final, especially given the weak third tall defenders of some of who we'd likely play in the prelim assuming we win on Saturday.

Still, I think our current structure is best but not the be all and end all.

 

[3KZ is Football]

Kenny has lost the plot with this Oppenheimer thing.

What's that got to do with footy ?

His players will be so confused , they're footy players not atom bombers.

It's just dawned on me that Kenny's intellect might be somewhat lacking . I don't think that's to his detriment as a coach but a strange time to reveal it to the world.

He is from Camperdown.

 

[3KZ is Football]

For what it's worth, I'd genuinely prefer we don't play Gunston, but don't think him playing or not will lose us a game and I can see him having a big impact in a final, especially given the weak third tall defenders of some of who we'd likely play in the prelim assuming we win on Saturday.

Still, I think our current structure is best but not the be all and end all.

He really can’t play. Injury report says he’s two weeks away and there is no chance we are going to “rush” a 31 year old who was dropped because he had fitness and stamina issues earlier this year, straight into a Preliminary or Grand Final when he hasn’t played since he was injured on August 12. It just defies all logic. So much so that I refuse to post on this topic again! Unless …

 

[McIvor]

My heart genuinely wants Dan Rich in the team if he’s good to go and gets through a VFL game or two but as much as it pains me saying it, my head says it’d be too much of a risk even as a sub.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I've spent the last couple of days devouring (but also critiquing) the gospel of Hoyne/King/Montagna, so you wouldn't have to. You're welcome.

In summary, and in conjunction with Tom14's post, none of it makes a whole lot of sense.

Hoyne made the general comment that generally in finals, uncontested possession numbers drop, and so do uncontested marks.

So I thought it worth reviewing our contested/uncontested numbers compared with Port. AFL website is helpful but only to the extent it shows the FOR numbers. It doesn't show the AGAINST numbers. Grasshopper Data to the rescue.

	BRISBANE		PORT ADELAIDE
	For	Against	For	Against
Contested possessions per game	136.3	131.5	135.7	139.9
Uncontested possessions per game	201.1	220.1	196.9	202.3
Contested/uncontested ratio	67.8%	59.7%	68.9%	69.2%
Marks per game	98.9	88.2	84.0	77.2
Contested marks per game	11.6	9.4	10.6	10.4
Uncontested marks per game	87.3	78.8	73.4	66.8

So essentially these numbers make arguments for each team. On our side:

• We generally beat our opponent in contested ball
• Port generally concede more contested ball
• Our opponents generally beat us on the spread (i.e. our ratio against is only 59.7%). If Hoyne is correct, this is less likely to occur in a final, particularly given Port's own high ratio, notwithstanding what happened in Round 1.
• We take more contested marks on average.
• We also concede less contested marks on average

Whereas on Port's side:

• They have a slightly higher ratio of contested ball, and a much higher ratio against, indicating they are more accustomed to playing a "finals brand" than we are.
• Their matches also generally involve less uncontested marks than our games, both for and against. Again, this indicates they are more accustomed to playing a "finals brand" than we are.

Hoyne and King went on to label the main strengths and weaknesses of the two teams:


And this is rather odd, when comparing the above to the raw numbers:

	Brisbane	Port Adelaide
Clearances won per game	42.2	38.5
Clearances lost per game	35.6	36.7
Net clearance wins	+6.6	+1.8
Total stoppages per game	77.8	75.3
Intercepts per game	67.1	69.3

So we are better at the turnover game, yet we generate less intercepts than Port. Meanwhile Port are better at the stoppage game, yet have (a) less total stoppages per game and (b) an inferior clearance differential. It's like both teams have spent the season playing with one arm tied behind their backs.

The general perception though is that finals is more about the turnover game than the stoppage game, so if that holds true it bodes well for us, apparently. The numbers I don't have access to must indicate we are more efficient at converting our turnovers into scores, and vice versa for Port.

Hoyne also had a nice little drive by for Starce, Cam and Bez:


Lastly, Montagna had his say:


So it looks like it will be very much a battle of territory, with both teams susceptible on the counter attack. To me, this is hardly surprising - when you play a high press (to use a soccer term) you are always vulnerable to a swift counter attack. Exhibit A would be our game against Adelaide in Adelaide.

In summary then, there's arguments for both teams. Port play more a "finals brand" if you read into the historical numbers, while we are better at scoring from turnovers, which apparently is also what stands up in finals. So, 6 of one, half a dozen of the other. In the end it's probably going to become a territory battle, meaning "death by a thousand cuts" is more likely to appear on the coroner's report than "Oppenheimer".

 

[Nunez]

He really can’t play. Injury report says he’s two weeks away and there is no chance we are going to “rush” a 31 year old who was dropped because he had fitness and stamina issues earlier this year, straight into a Preliminary or Grand Final when he hasn’t played since he was injured on August 12. It just defies all logic. So much so that I refuse to post on this topic again! Unless …

You wouldn't think so would you. Unless the final two weeks of his rehab consist of lots of running to get his fitness back up to pre-injury levels, I just don't see how he'd get the nod.

 

[M Malice]

I think you and I have been on a Brisbane v Melbourne Grand Final
for a while M Malice

 

[Viceregal]

IF…
The lions win the qf by a solid margin, something they have failed to do in any of their 9 finals since 2019
THEN…
Chris Fagan has to abandon his predetermined plan to bring back Gunston. Jack looked sharp after his last break, but that was after a training block and v west coast. Replacing a running player to play Gunston vs Melbourne or Collingwood would be blind loyalty.

For a moment there I thought I was going to have to agree with Barrett ... then checked the website and it is just yours ... happy to agree with you 'though

 

[Dalions]

I've spent the last couple of days devouring (but also critiquing) the gospel of Hoyne/King/Montagna, so you wouldn't have to. You're welcome.

In summary, and in conjunction with Tom14's post, none of it makes a whole lot of sense.

Hoyne made the general comment that generally in finals, uncontested possession numbers drop, and so do uncontested marks.

So I thought it worth reviewing our contested/uncontested numbers compared with Port. AFL website is helpful but only to the extent it shows the FOR numbers. It doesn't show the AGAINST numbers. Grasshopper Data to the rescue.

	BRISBANE		PORT ADELAIDE
	For	Against	For	Against
Contested possessions per game	136.3	131.5	135.7	139.9
Uncontested possessions per game	201.1	220.1	196.9	202.3
Contested/uncontested ratio	67.8%	59.7%	68.9%	69.2%
Marks per game	98.9	88.2	84.0	77.2
Contested marks per game	11.6	9.4	10.6	10.4
Uncontested marks per game	87.3	78.8	73.4	66.8

So essentially these numbers make arguments for each team. On our side:

• We generally beat our opponent in contested ball
• Port generally concede more contested ball
• Our opponents generally beat us on the spread (i.e. our ratio against is only 59.7%). If Hoyne is correct, this is less likely to occur in a final, particularly given Port's own high ratio, notwithstanding what happened in Round 1.
• We take more contested marks on average.
• We also concede less contested marks on average

Whereas on Port's side:

• They have a slightly higher ratio of contested ball, and a much higher ratio against, indicating they are more accustomed to playing a "finals brand" than we are.
• Their matches also generally involve less uncontested marks than our games, both for and against. Again, this indicates they are more accustomed to playing a "finals brand" than we are.

Hoyne and King went on to label the main strengths and weaknesses of the two teams:
View attachment 1795850View attachment 1795851

And this is rather odd, when comparing the above to the raw numbers:

	Brisbane	Port Adelaide
Clearances won per game	42.2	38.5
Clearances lost per game	35.6	36.7
Net clearance wins	+6.6	+1.8
Total stoppages per game	77.8	75.3
Intercepts per game	67.1	69.3

So we are better at the turnover game, yet we generate less intercepts than Port. Meanwhile Port are better at the stoppage game, yet have (a) less total stoppages per game and (b) an inferior clearance differential. It's like both teams have spent the season playing with one arm tied behind their backs.

The general perception though is that finals is more about the turnover game than the stoppage game, so if that holds true it bodes well for us, apparently. The numbers I don't have access to must indicate we are more efficient at converting our turnovers into scores, and vice versa for Port.

Hoyne also had a nice little drive by for Starce, Cam and Bez:
View attachment 1795848View attachment 1795849

Lastly, Montagna had his say:
View attachment 1795852

So it looks like it will be very much a battle of territory, with both teams susceptible on the counter attack. To me, this is hardly surprising - when you play a high press (to use a soccer term) you are always vulnerable to a swift counter attack. Exhibit A would be our game against Adelaide in Adelaide.

In summary then, there's arguments for both teams. Port play more a "finals brand" if you read into the historical numbers, while we are better at scoring from turnovers, which apparently is also what stands up in finals. So, 6 of one, half a dozen of the other. In the end it's probably going to become a territory battle, meaning "death by a thousand cuts" is more likely to appear on the coroner's report than "Oppenheimer".

Out of all of the teams left in finals we are the best by far at turning turnover into score. So we may not get the most turnovers but we will make teams pay when we do.
Port are one of the worst teams in the comp at moving the ball from defensive 50 to forward 50 and to score, so if we can win the ball and get it forward and lock it in we should be in with a good shot.
The other thing with Port, they are a very good clearance team but their contested posession numbers are well down, so as long as we put enough pressure on when they win a clearance it will be the post clearance/contested possession where we can get them and bounce it back the other way.

 

[M Malice]

Footy Classified tips >

Purple - Lions flag, player of the finals, Joe Daniher.
Lloyd- Demons flag, player of the finals, Christian Petracca

5

Christian Petracca

Age

28

Ht

187cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.4

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

3.0

5star

CL

2.5

4star

D

24.4

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.5

3star

T

3.6

4star

CL

3.4

4star

D

19.0

5star

K

7.8

3star

HB

11.2

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.0

4star

.
Bartel- Giants flag, player of the finals, Brent Daniels

16

Brent Daniels

Age

25

Ht

172cm

Wt

75kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.9

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

6.5

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.9

4star

G

0.4

3star

D

10.3

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

6.0

3star

M

1.9

2star

T

1.9

3star

G

0.0

1star

D

9.0

3star

K

3.6

2star

HB

5.4

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

3.0

5star

G

0.8

4star

.
______________________________________________
We have always like Purple on here.