2018 Rolling All Australian Team

[00Stinger]

I know footy fans have short memories but turn it up champs, both were outstanding last year. Only 1 ruck will make it

I guess that is why neither of them were in the top 10 in the coaches votes for the year

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

A

Take off the rose coloured glasses. Hardly anything between them with Cripps slightly higher in contested possessions (mainly due to fees for +24 than Oliver) and clearances, while Oliver leading in metres gained, de%, tackles, i50 and score involvements.

Cripps is doing it in a terrible Blues outfit and Oliver for the Dees.

Cripps clearly better.

 

[Shooter#17]

LOL no one but Melbourne supporters agrees with you mate. Oliver may get called up to the big boys table in the future, for now he's still an apprentice.

Nerd is an apt description for someone who blindly quotes numbers instead of watching the game with an open mind.

Ahhhh so instead of 'blindly' using actual statistical analysis to back up my conversation I should just side with the masses. Got ya

 

[Damon_3388]

Cripps has been a Top 5 league player, Oliver would be in the Top 10-15

Completely smashing him in the H2H poll on the polls board too btw -

I like Oliver but he doesn’t have the same impact on a game Cripps does.

What impact is Cripps actually having? His side isn't winning, other midfielders aren't benefiting directly from his play (Ed Curnow and Zach Fisher win a high percentage of their own ball), and he's #23 in the league for inside 50s, outside of the top 50 for score involvements (3rd at his club), and has kicked just 3 goals himself for the year.

The clearance and contested ball numbers look sexy, but they don't necessarily create scores and result in winning football.

 

[Shooter#17]

Cripps is doing it in a terrible Blues outfit and Oliver for the Dees.

Cripps clearly better.

By that logic Nathan Jones was the best player in the comp for many years...

 

[Shooter#17]

What impact is Cripps actually having? His side isn't winning, other midfielders aren't benefiting directly from his play (Ed Curnow and Zach Fisher win a high percentage of their own ball), and he's #23 in the league for inside 50s, outside of the top 50 for score involvements (3rd at his club), and has kicked just 3 goals himself for the year.

The clearance and contested ball numbers look sexy, but they don't necessarily create scores and result in winning football.

Shhhh, bigfooty is not a place to talk common sense.

 

[La Dispute]

What impact is Cripps actually having? His side isn't winning, other midfielders aren't benefiting directly from his play (Ed Curnow and Zach Fisher win a high percentage of their own ball), and he's #23 in the league for inside 50s, outside of the top 50 for score involvements (3rd at his club), and has kicked just 3 goals himself for the year.

The clearance and contested ball numbers look sexy, but they don't necessarily create scores and result in winning football.

Come on mate that’s incredibly reductive. He’s playing in a very poor team, which equates to very few wins overall. How many players in the league have as little support as Cripps does?

It actually surprises me he’s in the top 25 for inside 50s given that isn’t his role. He’s doing exactly what he’s meant to by dominating the clearances - in a bog average team no less - and giving our outside players first use. He can’t control our next few movents, which is where we break down.

Again - if Carlton aren’t kicking many goals, neither are our midfielders. These are some pretty obsolete, superficial stats.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Ahhhh so instead of 'blindly' using actual statistical analysis to back up my conversation I should just side with the masses. Got ya

Or perhaps realize that stats don't fully capture what is going on. The opposition completely restructures themselves around stoppages to try and contain or quell Cripps. If he doesn't win it or at least hold it in, we're losing every contest.

 

[La Dispute]

How many games would Cripps be in the best 3 on the ground despite Carlton losing? In at least a couple he was the clear best player on the ground in a loss.

Really have to see the macro from the micro when evaluating player performance.

 

[00Stinger]

What impact is Cripps actually having? His side isn't winning, other midfielders aren't benefiting directly from his play (Ed Curnow and Zach Fisher win a high percentage of their own ball), and he's #23 in the league for inside 50s, outside of the top 50 for score involvements (3rd at his club), and has kicked just 3 goals himself for the year.

The clearance and contested ball numbers look sexy, but they don't necessarily create scores and result in winning football.

Yeah but Cripps gets alot of the ball in a shit team that somehow mainly plays on a prime time slot. So he must be clearly better

 

[Forward Press]

Oh great are we going to have five pages of Cripps vs Oliver now?

 

[La Dispute]

Winning clearances and those clearances leading to scores aren’t mutually exclusive.

If your outside players are average/inexperienced there’s going to be a clear discrepancy.

 

[Dancing Potato]

Oh great are we going to have five pages of Cripps vs Oliver now?

Hey, at least we've moved on from the 50 odd pages of Rance discussion!

Enjoy the ride.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Hey, at least we've moved on from the 50 odd pages of Rance discussion!

Enjoy the ride.

At least Cripps and Oliver have each other as opponents.

Who was Rance matched up on?

Oh wait...

 

[Dancing Potato]

At least Cripps and Oliver have each other as opponents.

Who was Rance matched up on?

Oh wait...

 

[GhostofJimJess]

"Cotchin and Rance have both been immense and are Richmond's only locks at this stage."

They're not locks.

Yeah, I get it, we're only after R10 and nobody's a lock. And following that line of your thinking, this thread and a thousand others like it that pop up before we decide who's premiers in any given year are rhetorical ... yet we still gravitate to the forum.

But we can have relative locks, with respect to the current state of play, without needing to qualify this every time, surely?

Cotchin and Rance have been clearly Richmond's two best players in the first 1000 or so minutes of the season. Both have dominated their positions for approximately 800 of those minutes (80% of game time), to the point where a team that is 8-2 (80% win/loss ratio) and in second place with a very healthy percentage would be probably 4-6 at best without them both. I go to most Richmond games and see their influence from the broader perspective of the grandstand, rather than the narrow view of TV or Champion Data etc. Rance in particular is immense, and controls games. Yes, he very occasionally gets beaten in a contest - Darling was incredible all game and Jenkins had a purple patch which got him a handful of goals at the Adelaide Oval, before Rance fought back in the second half. But he's our best decision maker and we're a mile from a flag without him. We could probably cover Cotchin if we needed too, but no more than the Cats could cover JSelwood or the Crows Sloane.

Here's another way to look at it which provides key support to the above - nobody can find a reason for why a team that contains so many footballers who are simply not rated by the media or opposition fans can first win the grand final and then shake off a predicted hangover by going 8-2, beating form teams Melbourne, Collingwood, Hawthorn (at the time) and North in the process.

I stand by what I wrote - Martin's been average by his own standards. So then, if Broad, Short, McIntosh, Graham, Grimes, Costagna, Butler, Ellisx2, Vlastuin, Lloyd, Townsend, Higgins, Conca, Grigg, Houli, Menadue, Moore, Edwards etc (that's about three-quarters of our team from the last 10 weeks, with Prestia and Rioli out too) are all struggling to find their way most people's into the top 150 AFL footballers, then surely there's some true excellence happening in that team somewhere to correct the shortfall. And it's the form of Cotchin and Rance.

 

[Trav 20]

Oliver is just about my favourite player, but for me Cripps is shading him this year, although there's plenty of time for that to change and I also don't think there's not a lot in it.

I don't know the numbers, but I think Cripps probably has more opportunities to impact. Melbourne has so many players rotating through the midfield it's not funny. I suspect Oliver would be pushed out of the centre square more often than Cripps. And Viney's recently jumped back in and picks up a lazy 35 disposals with 20 contested last week.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Yeah, I get it, we're only after R10 and nobody's a lock.

You misunderstand. They're not locks in a rolling team.

But we can have relative locks, with respect to the current state of play, without needing to qualify this every time, surely?

Yeah. I'm saying they're not locks even in that sense.

Cotchin and Rance have been clearly Richmond's two best players in the first 1000 or so minutes of the season.

They're not competing with other Richmond players. They're competing with other players from other teams who play the same positions.

Rance could be Richmond's best player by a million miles. But if there are 1-2 key defenders from other teams who've been better, then his position in the Richmond pecking order counts for SFA. Same goes for Cotchin.

Being Richmond's best player doesn't automatically make you AA.

Both have dominated their positions for approximately 800 of those minutes (80% of game time), to the point where a team that is 8-2 (80% win/loss ratio) and in second place with a very healthy percentage would be probably 4-6 at best without them both. I go to most Richmond games and see their influence from the broader perspective of the grandstand, rather than the narrow view of TV or Champion Data etc. Rance in particular is immense, and controls games. Yes, he very occasionally gets beaten in a contest - Darling was incredible all game and Jenkins had a purple patch which got him a handful of goals at the Adelaide Oval, before Rance fought back in the second half. But he's our best decision maker and we're a mile from a flag without him. We could probably cover Cotching if we needed too, but no more than the Cats could cover JSelwood or the Crows Sloane.

Here's another way to look at it which provides key support to the above - nobody can find a reason for why a team that contains so many footballers who are simply not rated by the media or opposition fans can first win the grand final and then shake off a predicted hangover by going 8-2, beating form teams Melbourne, Collingwood, Hawthorn (at the time) and North in the process.

stand by what I wrote - Martin's been average by his own standards, Nank is a warrior but not in the NicNat/Gawn/Grundy league, Caddy's done the odd cameo and Riewoldt is a mile off the Coleman. So then, if Broad, Short, McIntosh, Graham, Grimes, Costagna, Butler, Ellisx2, Vlastuin, Lloyd, Townsend, Higgins, Conca, Grigg, Houli, Menadue, Moore, Edwards etc (that's about three-quarters of our team from the last 10 weeks, with Prestia and Rioli out too) are all struggling to find their way most people's into the top 150 AFL footballers, then surely there's some true excellence happening in that team somewhere to correct the shortfall. And it's the form of Cotchin and Rance.

See above.

Like I've said, you have no locks. You seem to think that just because Richmond are second on the ladder, there is some quota of players who absolutely must be AA. That's not how it works.

But I like how you helpfully converted your 8-2 record into an 80% win-loss ratio. I didn't understand it until you told me the percentage.

I'd actually say Caddy has the best case, as a mid-sized hybrid forward. He might not be Richmond's best player but that's not the criteria.

 

[LeverPuller]

I'm just rapt noone is trying to crowbar the Holy Trinity into their sides.

Its awesome that we finally have a heap of new names in the guts. Macrae, Cripps, Oliver, the return of Cotchin after an extended absence, Gaff, Cogs...

 

[Marc_Remillard]

Cripps has been comfortably better than Oliver and at this stage would get a spot on the field

That extra 0.2 disposals he's averaging over Oliver sure makes all the difference, comfortably for sure

 

[Sando22]

Cripps has been a Top 5 league player, Oliver would be in the Top 10-15

Completely smashing him in the H2H poll on the polls board too btw -

I like Oliver but he doesn’t have the same impact on a game Cripps does.

Talk me through how much impact Cripps had on the game when an Oliver lead midfield beat Carlton by over 100 points.
Cripps would be slightly ahead of Oliver in many stats at a guess but with two such similar players having fairly similar years, Oliver gets the nod IMO because he's impacting a winning side as opposed to Cripps who's side has 1 win and not many chances this year to come.

 

[La Dispute]

That extra 0.2 disposals he's averaging over Oliver sure makes all the difference, comfortably for sure

It’s his overall impact on games which is putting him ahead at the moment. As mentioned, he’s been in the best 3 on the ground in most games he’s played this year in a side that’s been belted for the most part - including being best on in a few losses.

He’s genuinely killing it.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Talk me through how much impact Cripps had on the game when an Oliver lead midfield beat Carlton by over 100 points.

Clearly that margin was all down to Oliver > Cripps. The other players had nothing to do with it.

 

[La Dispute]

Talk me through how much impact Cripps had on the game when an Oliver lead midfield beat Carlton by over 100 points.
Cripps would be slightly ahead of Oliver in many stats at a guess but with two such similar players having fairly similar years, Oliver gets the nod IMO because he's impacting a winning side as opposed to Cripps who's side has 1 win and not many chances this year to come.

An Oliver-led midfield? Clarry played his worst game for the year, while Cripps was in the top 3-5 players on the ground.

That’s in a team that hit belted by a ton.

 

[Marc_Remillard]

It’s his overall impact on games which is putting him ahead at the moment. As mentioned, he’s been in the best 3 on the ground in most games he’s played this year in a side that’s been belted for the most part - including being best on in a few losses.

He’s genuinely killing it.

I agree, Cripps is also having a good season