Analysis 2018 v 2017 YOY comparison - are we really getting better?

[lioninthesand]

I also saw that the Fox footy power rankings currently have us 14th.

 

[lioninthesand]

My biggest gripe with fans is the philosophy that because we haven't had a successful rebuild over the last 10 years, this one is doomed. We finished just out of the finals for years and had aging stars from the dynasty era on the list. We haven't loaded draft picks like this, utilized the academy and had competent leadership and admin in place at all during this time. we were also set back by 2 failed coaching appointments (it wasn't all their fault but failed non the less) and significant board upheaval. The Voss / Fev thing, compromised draft, poor decision making, hindered us up until 3 or so years ago. We have a clean slate now, this is a new run at it, what 'has been said for the last 10 years really doesent factor into much. we are 2 years into a club re-set, we need to give it 5 years to eventuate.

 

[lioninthesand]

My biggest gripe with fans is the philosophy that because we haven't had a successful rebuild over the last 10 years, this one is doomed. We finished just out of the finals for years and had aging stars from the dynasty era on the list. We haven't loaded draft picks like this, utilized the academy and had competent leadership and admin in place at all during this time. we were also set back by 2 failed coaching appointments (it wasn't all their fault but failed non the less) and significant board upheaval. The Voss / Fev thing, compromised draft, poor decision making, hindered us up until 3 or so years ago. We have a clean slate now, this is a new run at it, what 'has been said for the last 10 years really doesent factor into much. we are 2 years into a club re-set, we need to give it 5 years to eventuate.

And by the same token, the fact it has been so long doesn't guarantee that this re-build as a raging success either. Just because it's been so long, doesn't mean it's flag or bust. The first stage we are working toward is becoming genuinely competitive each week, once that foundation is set (which is hard enough for us it seems) then we go into a whole new scary phase - actually trying to make top 4 and challenge for a p'ship. Very few rebuilds go from having that foundation to actually winning a flag, they fall over all the time, look at the Saints this year. There is a long way to go and a lot of scaring for us fans. This part of the journey is easy, I fear for us when we actually have genuine expectations.

 

[M Malice]

Thought it might be an interesting comparison- Ins and Outs from Round 10 2016 (BF Before Fagan) to Round 10 2018. Bolded no longer at the club.

Outs- Daniel Merrett, Jackson Paine, Sam Mayes, Ryan Lester, Ben Keays, Pearce Hanley, Trent West, Josh Schache, Jonathan Freeman, Ryan Harwood, Tom Bell, Ryan Bastinac, Rhys Matheison.

Ins- Luke Hodge, Harris Andrews, Darcy Gardner, Matt Eagles, Zac Bailey, Cameron Rayner, Eric Hipwood, Hugh McCluggage, Oscar McInerney, Charlie Cameron, Jarrod Berry, Dayne Beams, Alex Witherden.

There was no one of significance on the injury list in 2016. Sam Skinner was on it, listed as 2 weeks, knee.

 

[werdna78]

The Core: Christensen, Zorko, Martin, Cutler, Robinson, Taylor, Robertson, Rich, McStay.

 

[Gadzorks]

View attachment 502827

You could mark the chart with the fagan effect from about 2/3 of the way through 2017. Clear and sustained change in trend.

 

[lioninthesand]

I have done rounds 6-10 and the update of the stat lines comparing the first 10 games of this year to the first 10 games of last year are as follows -

Again keep in mind this is a comparison of the stat differential. So if we are +50 in scoring it means that to this point last year our losing margin was 100 and now it is 50, so on and so forth.

YOY comparison of round 1-10 (2017) vs round 1-10 (2018) -

Score +278
Contested possession +5
Clearences +12
Inside 50 +127
Disposals +117
Time in possession +50%

Interesting notes

Our wheels are spinning with Contested possession, we were almost exactly the same in rounds 6-10 last year as we were rounds 6-10 this year, however last year we were getting flogged each week. Until we win that ledger, more often than not, we won't make serious ground. That will come as body sizes get bigger.

Amazingly - clearances actually went back by 4 over the next section of comparison, which is incredible given Stephs perceived dominance, imagine if we were actually able to capitise on his dominance in the ruck, we would be 5-5 instead of 1-9.

We have significantly lost the disposal count several times this year, but there has still been a significant improvement in this area, would have thought it would be much higher, given how little we had of the ball in some games last year and how much time in possession / I50 and score has improved.

Score, inside 50's time in possession improvement is astronomical and seemingly out of kilter given Contested possession, disposal efficiency, clearance hasn't improved much - I think we can take from that then, improvement is coming from these areas - we are getting more possession and holding onto the ball in a more controlled manner and MOST IMPORTANTLY our defense has improved out of sight (all hail Luke Hodge, Spud stick your 'time to sit in the grandstand' comments up your clacker).

Amazingly the differential between us an opposition in terms of time with ball in hand is 50% better than last year to the same point.

Overall huge areas of improvement still to be had, but we are a far far far more potent football team at this point. The close loses will continue to come while we lose contested ball each week though.

If you took the Tigers game out (which I won't this time) it would look even better.

I will do the 2017 continuation comparison as well at some stage, but it will just reflect general improvement as shown above here. The notion that we are not better than we were in the back half of last year is incorrect I tells ya.

 

[notliondown]

Cheers for the work lioninthesand - makes for an interesting read.

The trouble with raw stats is they sometimes lack the ability to tell the real picture. I'd almost bet if you could assess the QUALITY of our stats this year somehow that would be more telling. What I mean is position on the ground per possession or disposal, disposal to advantage as opposed possessing the ball and so on.

Despite turnovers it feels there's a palpable improvement in the skill level especially the last few games and that the reward for those stats is more in the quality of them and that in turn leading to opportunity.

Just not sure how you measure quality effectively...

 

[Berrygood]

We seem to be playing out the full 4qtrs this year. Not tiring and giving up 2-4 goals in the last 5 or so mins of each qtr. Consistency in team selection allows players to have more confidence in each other and there has definately been a positive hodge effect. We're much more competitive overall.

 

[dlanod]

We seem to be playing out the full 4qtrs this year. Not tiring and giving up 2-4 goals in the last 5 or so mins of each qtr. Consistency in team selection allows players to have more confidence in each other and there has definately been a positive hodge effect. We're much more competitive overall.

I was thinking about this last night and came to a similar realisation - last year when I was watching the Dogs' game I had no faith that we would hold on to a six goal lead (sadly I was correct). This year, if we had a six goal lead around half time I'd be surprised if we lost from there.

 

[lioninthesand]

Cheers for the work lioninthesand - makes for an interesting read.

The trouble with raw stats is they sometimes lack the ability to tell the real picture. I'd almost bet if you could assess the QUALITY of our stats this year somehow that would be more telling. What I mean is position on the ground per possession or disposal, disposal to advantage as opposed possessing the ball and so on.

Despite turnovers it feels there's a palpable improvement in the skill level especially the last few games and that the reward for those stats is more in the quality of them and that in turn leading to opportunity.

Just not sure how you measure quality effectively...

Cheers mate, I totally agree and think that the 'eye test' is always more telling than stats. How many times do you think,'gee player X has been good' only to see they have only had 14 touches which changes your votes at the end of the game. There is an AFL coach or ex coach who spoke about the fact they banned stats being on constant display in the box so as coaches used their eye test more. Maybe Ross Lyon?

I think the only big take home message is, if we can keep all other stats where they are going forward (some off which have improved to ludicrous levels), and improve contested possession by +60/70 over the next 12 weeks, we will win a good handful of games, just very hard with so many smaller frames out there.

 

[mikey127]

Through 11 games.
Quarters won 2017 15 2018 15
For and against 2017 -384 2018 -226

 

[spotthedog1]

Something I've been thinking about - where will we finish this year? Realistically, I'd have the wooden spoon down to 3 competitors - us, St Kilda and Carlton. I think the Suns are just as bad as us, but already sitting on 3 wins is a good leg up.

Winnable games for all clubs - chance of winning:

Brisbane
Essendon - 30% (Essendon slightly hitting form, and us hitting injuries)
Freo - 20%
Carlton - 50%
Pies - 20% (if they revert back to long-term form-line)
Suns - 50%

Totals about 1.7 wins. Plus our 1 existing win has us on 2.7 wins average.

Note: I generally work on about 2 unexpected wins each year anyway. Hawks was one, and I reckon we'll get another against a team not listed above before the year is out. But for the purpose of this estimate, so will the Saints and Freo, so even if I think we're more likely to finish on 3-4 wins, it's easier just to disregard for this estimate.

Carlton
Freo - 20%
Pies - 20% (this is just the sort of game the pies could collapse in)
Lions - 50%
Saints - 40%
Suns - 50%
Freo - 20%
Dogs - 30%

Total at 2.3 wins, plus 1 existing win gives 3.3 wins average.

Saints
Suns - 50%
Blues - 60%
Dogs - 30%
Dons - 30%

Total at 1.7 wins, plus 1.5 existing wins gives 3.2 wins average.

So at the moment, I have us 'winning' the spoon. I also have the Blues with a surprising number of winnable games in the back half, which is irritating. Though the Saints have already had most of their winnable games, and only have 1 win and 1 draw.

The interesting thing is also looking at our back half of the year last year - we were far more competitive in the back half last year. Arguably, we've carried that on this year, but just not picked up the chocolates (other than the hawks game). Quite possible we'd win a few more throughout. But then again, it's also quite possible that Saints/Blues will too as other teams fatigue and injure, levelling the playing field a bit. Even based on the above calculations, more accurately I have us finishing on 1-6 wins. 6 wins we will be 14-15th, 1 win we will pick up another spoon. Will be interesting to see how we go.

 

[dlanod]

Note: I generally work on about 2 unexpected wins each year anyway. Hawks was one, and I reckon we'll get another against a team not listed above before the year is out. But for the purpose of this estimate, so will the Saints and Freo, so even if I think we're more likely to finish on 3-4 wins, it's easier just to disregard for this estimate.

If you add a base 10% chance to win any game (which feels about right), that should give you about the unexpected win mark in a consistent manner across all the clubs. That gives 2.3 more wins for us, 2.3 more for Carlton and 2.4 more for Saints.

 

[spotthedog1]

If you add a base 10% chance to win any game (which feels about right), that should give you about the unexpected win mark in a consistent manner across all the clubs. That gives 2.3 more wins for us, 2.3 more for Carlton and 2.4 more for Saints.

Not a bad metric - would do the job.

Would actually put Carlton on 2.7 though.

Then you'd end up with:
Brisbane: 1 + 2.3 = 3.3
Carlton: 1 + 2.7 = 3.8
St Kilda: 1.5+2.4 = 3.9

Three clubs definitely in the mix. I don't think it's unrealistic that we could be spooners at all, though I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit a vein of form again at end of the year. All depends on perspective - my figures were, of course, plucked out of thin air, and I'm sure others would have different figures.

Think at the end of the day, I'd see us as having:
40% chance of spooning
50% chance of bottom 3
10% chance of 15th of better.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

If you add a base 10% chance to win any game (which feels about right), that should give you about the unexpected win mark in a consistent manner across all the clubs. That gives 2.3 more wins for us, 2.3 more for Carlton and 2.4 more for Saints.

How many points do they award for .3 of a win these days?

 

[M Malice]

We finish 18th and Jack Lukosius (Nick Reiwoldt clone apparently) looks like being way too good to knock back, finish 16th or 17th and we're going to get one of the best midfielders in the draft pool, can't lose.

 

[Cockliff38]

We finish 18th and Jack Lukosius (Nick Reiwoldt clone apparently) looks like being way too good to knock back, finish 16th or 17th and we're going to get one of the best midfielders in the draft pool, can't lose.

Except the 18-20 games of losing

 

[pulpdriver]

We finish 18th and Jack Lukosius (Nick Reiwoldt clone apparently) looks like being way too good to knock back, finish 16th or 17th and we're going to get one of the best midfielders in the draft pool, can't lose.

Not the worst year to finish towards the bottom, even if it sucks to be down the bottom again. Really hope we do start making a climb up the ladder next year though.

 

[mikey127]

Something I've been thinking about - where will we finish this year? Realistically, I'd have the wooden spoon down to 3 competitors - us, St Kilda and Carlton. I think the Suns are just as bad as us, but already sitting on 3 wins is a good leg up.

Winnable games for all clubs - chance of winning:

Brisbane
Essendon - 30% (Essendon slightly hitting form, and us hitting injuries)
Freo - 20%
Carlton - 50%
Pies - 20% (if they revert back to long-term form-line)
Suns - 50%

Totals about 1.7 wins. Plus our 1 existing win has us on 2.7 wins average.

Note: I generally work on about 2 unexpected wins each year anyway. Hawks was one, and I reckon we'll get another against a team not listed above before the year is out. But for the purpose of this estimate, so will the Saints and Freo, so even if I think we're more likely to finish on 3-4 wins, it's easier just to disregard for this estimate.

Carlton
Freo - 20%
Pies - 20% (this is just the sort of game the pies could collapse in)
Lions - 50%
Saints - 40%
Suns - 50%
Freo - 20%
Dogs - 30%

Total at 2.3 wins, plus 1 existing win gives 3.3 wins average.

Saints
Suns - 50%
Blues - 60%
Dogs - 30%
Dons - 30%

Total at 1.7 wins, plus 1.5 existing wins gives 3.2 wins average.

So at the moment, I have us 'winning' the spoon. I also have the Blues with a surprising number of winnable games in the back half, which is irritating. Though the Saints have already had most of their winnable games, and only have 1 win and 1 draw.

The interesting thing is also looking at our back half of the year last year - we were far more competitive in the back half last year. Arguably, we've carried that on this year, but just not picked up the chocolates (other than the hawks game). Quite possible we'd win a few more throughout. But then again, it's also quite possible that Saints/Blues will too as other teams fatigue and injure, levelling the playing field a bit. Even based on the above calculations, more accurately I have us finishing on 1-6 wins. 6 wins we will be 14-15th, 1 win we will pick up another spoon. Will be interesting to see how we go.

I would say we are more a 70% chance of winning the Carlton game. Its at the Gabba and have won 5 out if our last 6 against them.

 

[Gadzorks]

We finish 18th and Jack Lukosius (Nick Reiwoldt clone apparently) looks like being way too good to knock back, finish 16th or 17th and we're going to get one of the best midfielders in the draft pool, can't lose.

And the priority /mercy pick. Surely if we finish bottom two we get one after our first pick.

Since gws included 2017 18th, 2016 17, 2015 17, 2014 15, 2014 12, 2012 13. Dismal reading.

Given that we have already stated we are asking for a pp, and gc looking to be circus (especially if the lose lynch) they have to do something for qld.

 

[Jivlain]

Not a bad metric - would do the job.

Would actually put Carlton on 2.7 though.

Then you'd end up with:
Brisbane: 1 + 2.3 = 3.3
Carlton: 1 + 2.7 = 3.8
St Kilda: 1.5+2.4 = 3.9

Three clubs definitely in the mix. I don't think it's unrealistic that we could be spooners at all, though I wouldn't be surprised to see us hit a vein of form again at end of the year. All depends on perspective - my figures were, of course, plucked out of thin air, and I'm sure others would have different figures.

Think at the end of the day, I'd see us as having:
40% chance of spooning
50% chance of bottom 3
10% chance of 15th of better.

Squiggle currently forecasts us 15th on 6 wins, with us as favourites against Gold Coast, Carlton and Essendon.

For the spoon Carlton are clear favourites, with Gold Coast and St Kilda also more likely to spoon than us.

 

[lioninthesand]

Keep in mind we always come out strong after the bye.

 

[luthor]

Keep in mind we always come out strong after the bye.

The bye always plays us into form.

The bye is our biatch

 

[lioninthesand]

The bye always plays us into form.

The bye is our biatch

After everyone else starts tanking, we come out to play.. get em boys