List Mgmt. 2019 Trade Thread - Part III

[Premium]

I notice the talk that Carlisle has really had any offers , well the final's are still to be played and if Carlisle can prove his back is in good order he will be highly sought after.

Just look at the team's in the final's who would love a Carlisle.

Geelong - Taylor's last year
Magpies - Dunne , Goldsack , with Moore maybe moving.
Dogs - Wood , Trengrove , Cordy

Carlisle has a lot of value if fit and once the trade period starts they will be fighting over him - Hawthorn and North need a solid CHB as well badly.

 

[Mikka84]

I notice the talk that Carlisle has really had any offers , well the final's are still to be played and if Carlisle can prove his back is in good order he will be highly sought after.

Just look at the team's in the final's who would love a Carlisle.

Geelong - Taylor's last year
Magpies - Dunne , Goldsack , with Moore maybe moving.
Dogs - Wood , Trengrove , Cordy

Carlisle has a lot of value if fit and once the trade period starts they will be fighting over him - Hawthorn and North need a solid CHB as well badly.

When we say a lot of value.. I hope you're thinking around a second pick.. Hence Carlisle hasn't received any real 'interest'

 

[Elvis Winmar]

I really hate this time of year. There’s such a vacuum of tangible and credible Saints related news to discuss, that things seem to spiral out of control so quickly.

We (and by ‘we’ I mean fans and journos) create these narratives of the club’s actions over this period - ‘First we started doing this, but now we’ve changed our minds and are doing that! Honestly, it’s a basket case!!!’

Where in reality, no one has any idea what the club has in mind, or how its plans are progressing. These narratives are products of our own imaginations. The club could have the greatest plan since D Day, and we’d all have no idea about it.

I like this thread when it’s used to discuss the merits and values of various players, what our strategy should be, and speculation about who we might target.

But what I don’t see the value in is critiquing the club’s ‘performance’, when literally not one decision or deal has been made yet. It’d be like discussing who played well in a game which hasn’t happened yet.

It’s depressing, and exhausting.

 

[Mowman]

Boyd won them that flag. If he wasn’t there Sydney would have won.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Have to agree, If Boyd didn't play Dogs didn't win
He won them a flag

 

[TheEnsign]

Surely if you cant see that a bloke that has only played 30 games has still got improvement in him im glad your not recruiting . Here is a tip for you , Hunter has played 29 games , are you saying he hasn't got plenty of improvement in him ?

That's not what I am saying at all and I reckon it would take a particularly petulant reading of my other comment to extrapolate that. The prevailing theory going around is that a lot (perhaps most) players take until 80 - 100 games played to really hit their stride and be able to deliver week-in, week-out consistent performance at whatever their 'ceiling' talent level is.

Keath will be 28 before R1 next year. He's clearly got talent, but we don't know if he will be able to back up his year with the same performance next year. Using ~80 games as a benchmark for consistent performance - assuming he plays every game for the next two years (and we make finals in 2021!) then he'll hit the 80 game mark around R1 2022 at which point he'll be a tick over 30 years old. I don't see that as a great value proposition given his age.

Thanks for the tip re: Hunter btw. Do you have any other riveting trade insights between a 20 year old and 27 year old you'd like to share?

 

[Premium]

When we say a lot of value.. I hope you're thinking around a second pick.. Hence Carlisle hasn't received any real 'interest'

I just can't see Carlisle being given away as a draft pick , I feel if he is moved on it will be in a trade for a guy like McLean for the Dogs or Constable at Geelong or a Sier at the Magpies or some type of intra club trade.

 

[Mowman]

If trading Bruce we are either getting Jenkins or playing Marshall mainly forward next year imo

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

If St Kilda were to split their Pick 5 with GWS for say 11 and 13, would you think Hill and Pick 24 for 11 and Acres is around the mark?

Side note re. Josh Bruce, if he leaves which looks all but certain now to WB, Toby McLean and Pick 30 would do it for me. Would probably take more than that to get it over the line, either a swap of picks or a future pick but I still think he's a serious chance to leave and would be a very smart pickup.

If I'm being honest, i think I would find Bell and kick him in the nuts if he did that deal. I dont want to do what everyone does and tell you all the reasons Hill is amazing and the greatest footballer to grace the Earth but he is very very valuable to us and we have shown in the past that we are prepared to be dicks when teams poach a contracted player.

Just on that side note; I actually went to the Dogs board a while ago a proposed a trade that saw them lose McLean, was not taken well though a couple of weeks later they were talking about trading him. Think McLean would be a good get and if the Dogs want to be as agressive in list management as you guys appear to be this year they should consider off-loading him for a good price. He very surplus to what they have going as far as I'm concerned

 

[Mikka84]

I just can't see Carlisle being given away as a draft pick , I feel if he is moved on it will be in a trade for a guy like McLean for the Dogs or Constable at Geelong or a Sier at the Magpies or some type of intra club trade.

Could be part of an intra trade.. He won't be traded for a pick. His currency doesn't warrant the trade.

Clubs would only give a second round pick - something not worthwhile to us.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

The straight swap works far better, our problem is the List is horribly out of balance with 20 defenders we need more mids and good ones at that, we've got half backs playing midfield and forward roles in the VFL, guys like Dunstan and Acres get games despite injury and form because we have no depth or our depth is so bad the out of form injured are better anyway, we get rid of Acres we still need to find more mids and sure Hill is an improvement but he's not three players. We're better off keeping Blake as depth and try and trade a few HBF out, You don't need a couple do you?.

We have around 13 Senior listed defenders, including Roberton.
5 talls , then rookies, Wlikie, Marsh and Rowe.
Which defenders were playing as mids for Sandringham ? You do know we had so many injuries they had to bring in extra players to make up the Sandringham side right? Players like Paton , have always had a midfield component to their game.
I make it at 14 midfielders on our list.
Yes i'd like more top end talent in our midfield. Particularly contested ball /clearance players to help Dunstan out.

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

Schneider Trade?

and how did that work out .... you reckon Sydney regretted letting Dempster go for nothing making us stronger and in turn putting them out of finals ?

 

[SaintsSeptember]

If I'm being honest, i think I would find Bell and kick him in the nuts if he did that deal. I do want to do what everyone does and tell you all the reasons Hill is amazing and the greatest footballer to grace the Earth but he is very very valuable to us and we have shown in the past that we are prepared to be dicks when teams poach a contracted player.

Just on that side note; I actually went to the Dogs board a while ago a proposed a trade that saw them lose McLean, was not taken well though a couple of weeks later they were talking about trading him. Think McLean would be a good get and if the Dogs want to be as agressive in list management as you guys appear to be this year they should consider off-loading him for a good price. He very surplus to what they have going as far as I'm concerned

He hasn't been poached, he's cracked the sooks and wants to leave because of his private life. The same as he did when you got him with such a good deal.

 

[sunny3193]

The only good thing about this trade period is we are gambling our future and should know in one or two years what sort of impact this crew has had. We should able to get rid of the whole footy department and board if they fu** this up. It won't take 9 years this time.

I disagree.
The great thing about this trade period is that we are in the second year of a three year reboot.
I think it’s great that starting Round 1, 2021 we are going to have a core of 4 agile, mobile and talented talls. A group that will be the envy of the seventeen other clubs and a group that a premiership team can be built around.
I think it’s great that starting Round 1, 2021 our core midfield trio will not be Steele, Ross and Dunstan. It’ll be better.
It’s great that starting Round 1, 2021 we are going to have a list demonstrably better suited to the modern game than the list at the end of last year.
It’s great that starting Round 1, 2021 we are going to have a list demonstrably more skilled than the list at the end of last year.
And it’s great that we have a plan to get us there.
Plus it’s great that we finally have the people with the intellect, knowledge and toughness to implement this plan.
For the first time in a decade I can actually see and understand what the club is trying to achieve.
I know that there is a lot to play out yet and we may not meet all of our markers this year.
But I am really chuffed with what we are trying to do.
That first low teens pick is so important.
To get another, would be my perfect outcome.....

I am really sorry that you cannot see any of this.

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

When did I say give him away for free?

A sweetener has to hold some sort of value. Players that we are about to delist hold none.

A late first won't be enough to get Hill so if we are adding a sweetener it needs to hold some sort of value.

Acres is probably worth a late second round pick. We'd get laughed out of the room if we tried to throw in Bailey Rice.

ok so if something cost $30 and you only got $25 in cash you dont got to the ATM and give them another $20 ... thats what adding Acres to a late first round for Hill would be doing if we are adding Acres then a secound rounder needs to be coming back with Hill

 

[The_Steadier]

Its Hill that wants to leave. If they want to be stuck with a disgruntled player, that's their choice.
Why should the Saints pay overs?

You haven't seen a ladder for a couple of years have you?

We'll pay overs to get an A grade mid in.
Not stupid overs (eg lachie weller for pick 2)... but we will pay pick 5 for hill level overs.

Unfortunately our poor onfield showing means we don't have the luxury of risking missing out on an elite talent by driving a hard bargain at the trade table.

 

[CaptainRisky]

That's not what I am saying at all and I reckon it would take a particularly petulant reading of my other comment to extrapolate that. The prevailing theory going around is that a lot (perhaps most) players take until 80 - 100 games played to really hit their stride and be able to deliver week-in, week-out consistent performance at whatever their 'ceiling' talent level is.

Keath will be 28 before R1 next year. He's clearly got talent, but we don't know if he will be able to back up his year with the same performance next year. Using ~80 games as a benchmark for consistent performance - assuming he plays every game for the next two years (and we make finals in 2021!) then he'll hit the 80 game mark around R1 2022 at which point he'll be a tick over 30 years old. I don't see that as a great value proposition given his age.

Thanks for the tip re: Hunter btw. Do you have any other riveting trade insights between a 20 year old and 27 year old you'd like to share?

Granted the 20 yo is still immature body wise but the amount of time on the park is similar , Keath maybe 30 in three years ( Good math thanks) but he hasn't been getting bashed around on the park like Jake and other blokes that have been playing AFL for the 10 years , his body should be in a lot better shape than blokes a similar age that have been playing football .
Ps , I think the 80 - 100 games theory is more for kids drafted as they are still growing into their bodies in the first 2 - 3 years so you really dont get to see the best of them (in most cases ) until year 3 or 4
I just think Keith will continue to improve as he had previously been playing cricket therefore lost a few years of development , oh and yes the word "tip" was not the best way to put my point across

 

[kernelT]

If St Kilda were to split their Pick 5 with GWS for say 11 and 13, would you think Hill and Pick 24 for 11 and Acres is around the mark?

I don’t understand this kind of trade, which seems like Hill for 11 and acres for 24.

Will we be confident of finding a better player than Blake with pick 24? Could very easily end up with a worse player... probably a medium defender attempting to play midfield like Jones.

 

[The_Steadier]

Don't know about anyone else, but I'm actually feeling quite optimistic.

I'm optimistic purely because Gubby and Lethers are top quality, success driven kents both with a point to prove.

There won't be a single amateur hour move made.

This is going to be like watching GAJ start on the GC and prove that he wasn't just a champ because of the cats midfield around him.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

He hasn't been poached, he's cracked the sooks and wants to leave because of his private life. The same as he did when you got him with such a good deal.

Ok, well unlike the Hawks, we suck and reserve the right to be hypocritical until we aren’t shit

 

[Moral Decay]

We have around 13 Senior listed defenders, including Roberton.
5 talls , then rookies, Wlikie, Marsh and Rowe.
Which defenders were playing as mids for Sandringham ? You do know we had so many injuries they had to bring in extra players to make up the Sandringham side right? Players like Paton , have always had a midfield component to their game.
I make it at 14 midfielders on our list.
Yes i'd like more top end talent in our midfield. Particularly contested ball /clearance players to help Dunstan out.

We can argue the toss about what a midfield component is, I am using the broadest sense because regardless of how we use them, guys like Long, Hind, Coffield, Paton, Clark, and Newnes came to the club as backmen.

Ross, Armitage and Battle have all been selected as backmen with varying levels of success.
White, Paton, Lonie and Rice have all spent amounts of in the middle at VFL with either no hope or token opportunity in that position at AFL level.

It's worth it to check the entire list on AFL.com

 

[BangersAndMash]

Ok, well unlike the Hawks, we suck and reserve the right to be hypocritical until we aren’t s**t

You got him for Pick 23. He's improved somewhat since then and should be valued a little higher, around the 14-18 mark IMO.

Looks like it's a done deal according to Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_Hill_(footballer)

 

[Ricochet]

Strait swap for sidebottom if they don't like it we can give them lonie as well for a 3rd rounder

On G3226 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Therealsaint]

bruce is going to the dogs

 

[Impatient Saint]

i tried to be generous in the Steven and Carlisle trades if I'm being honest, but both are contracted so you have some level of power there I think.

I'm sure others here will think I havent given you enough. Carlisle has the back problem but I would still think he's worth more than Keath personally who has had just the one decent season.

I'll tread carefully on the Hill one since we'll disagree but do you think Acres and 11 is heavy overs or slight overs? I think you'll need to do slight overs to get it done.

It really depends on if our recruiters are red hot on anyone who they think might be available in the top 20? Otherwise I think a swap of pick 5/6 for Hill in this years draft is reasonable for both clubs.

 

[XhazzafootyX]

Shacae, Bruce and Naughton wouldn’t all go in the same forwardline would they? Unless naughton goes back I suppose