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List Mgmt. 2020 Draft (December 9) discussion thread

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Our currently owned picks:

24 - Blake Coleman
43 - Harry Sharp
48 - Henry Smith

Our currently owned 2021 picks:

1st (MEL), 1st (BRI), 3rd (WCE), 3rd (BRI), 4th (MEL), 4th (COL), 5th (BRI)
 
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Dlions said:
Would love to get Sam Walsh to the Lions.
If getting his Brother here in anyway helps that cause? Why not?
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I wasn't saying anything at all like this. Would love Sam at our club.

But the brother-at-the-same-club thing is often overblown I find. If there was any reason to draft young Walsh because of his brother it would be that the talent that often seems to run through bloodlines.
 
The Flying Belgian said:
I wasn't saying anything at all like this. Would love Sam at our club.

But the brother-at-the-same-club thing is often overblown I find. If there was any reason to draft young Walsh because of his brother it would be that the talent that often seems to run through bloodlines.
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Sorry 😐 someone mentioned it earlier.
 
Dlions said:
I love the lift in average games for pick 29 which is where Twomey has our pick.
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The pick we took Jamie Charman at. And he played in a flag in his third season - for those with a set agin going a ruckman.
 
Clarkythelion said:
I wrote this down last year from some stats that were given.

Since 2008 from draft picks 35 and over the chance of getting a player that plays over 100 games is 1 in 100. I did manage to get all the numbers from each year but wont bore you, but on average about 18 kids picked after 35 each year "succeed" using that as the criteria.

Between pick 1 and pick 16 they used the measure of being a 'success' as reaching All Australian selection at some time in their career. Average was just 4 players from that draft range each year went on to achieve that.

I also had another number written down but nothing to support it but it was that of all 1st round draft selections, only 1 out of 3, went on to play 200 games or more. Draft watchers might have stats.
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i saw a similar article on the internet the other day and we have Andrews as that 1 in 100. Also believe Payne and Answerth will play in excess of 100 games and if, so we have done well.
 

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Section 5 said:
With the draft tomorrow and our first pick at 25 which will be pushed back to early 30's i thought i would post the picks up to 32 since 1981
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I appreciate you posting this, I just think the draft is only worth analysing for the past 10-12 years. Back in the 80s people had no idea how to draft properly compared to what they know now.
 
JasRulz63 said:
Highmore was pretty impressive in the SANFL this year. From the bits and pieces I've seen, he seems to play like a Jordan Ridley type at Essendon. Both are that medium defender size (192 cm), strong in the air, and both are capable of getting their hands on the ball and use it well.
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Pretty sure Highmore played as an over ager in the 2017 National comps for the Allies and then for Canberra in the NEAFL in 2018,2019. I am no expert but don't think he offers anything we don't already have for example Payne is one of key defenders and is struggling to get a game. Answerth not guaranteed a regular spot then there is Prior and B.Smith trying to push to get some games in 2021. I would pass on Highmore not tall enough to be a genuine KPD
 
Johnny Bananas said:
I appreciate you posting this, I just think the draft is only worth analysing for the past 10-12 years. Back in the 80s people had no idea how to draft properly compared to what they know now.
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Possibly true to a certain extent.
I think all Clubs had a fair to good idea of the top 10 or so but just did not have the resources to get better information on the remainder.
As you pointed out they are just better at it now and some gems can be found in the 20 t0 32 pick mark
I had a quick look at the top 10 and Clubs got it fairly right (excluding pick 6 ) going back to say 1991 so that's 29 years
How's this for total games played @ pick 6 during the 90's - 0, 40, 29, 2, 38, 22, 151 James Walker Frem to the rescue, 5, 53 & 21.
Of course no matter which pick number you look at their are some shockers in amoungst most of the top 10

If you click on the Red pick one from my post you don't have to get back out to go to the next pick
At top right hand corner after choosing pick 1 you will see pick 2 in blue just click and that brings up pick 2 and so on until you want to stop.

Of the later picks in recent times pick 25, 26 & 29 have yielded good results
 
Clarkythelion said:
So did we in 2003, he didn't turn out very well either.
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We drafted one with a first round pick, not pick 1.

Josh Fraser turned out ok, 200 games in the end but couldn't win the GFs off his own bat.
 
I've been thinking about Matt Balmer having us selecting 22 year old SANFL player Tom Highmore in his phantom draft, seems a strange call to come out of the blue unless he has some inside intel that we are keen on him.
 
Jason mp said:
I've been thinking about Matt Balmer having us selecting 22 year old SANFL player Tom Highmore in his phantom draft, seems a strange call to come out of the blue unless he has some inside intel that we are keen on him.
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Will be interesting, but I tend to follow Cal Twomey, IMHO he seems to have the more accurate inside information over the last couple of years.
 
Jason mp said:
I've been thinking about Matt Balmer having us selecting 22 year old SANFL player Tom Highmore in his phantom draft, seems a strange call to come out of the blue unless he has some inside intel that we are keen on him.
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Interestingly Twomey mentioned Mitch Duval for us in his phantom, who's a 23yo SANFL that's quite a similar player to Highmore.
 
Jason mp said:
I've been thinking about Matt Balmer having us selecting 22 year old SANFL player Tom Highmore in his phantom draft, seems a strange call to come out of the blue unless he has some inside intel that we are keen on him.
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I had a quick look at him last night and he would not be the worst option. He played in the SANFL so we have actually seen him play this year which is more than most other options. He is a very good judge of the ball in the air, has nice hands, has good option taking and really nice weight on his kicks. He is also a mature body and could come in and play right away.

He is a medium defender who I think could come in and play the role Birchall did this year and play it well. He also offers cover for Gardner and Lester which we need. We quite a few 4 backs in the offseason and it does make sense to add some more depth especially depth that can play right away. We would have had a good chance to watch and play against him when he was in the NEAFL so they should have a good idea about him to start with and the fact that he stood up and continued to develop in the SANFL would be a positive as well.

At his best he could be a Tom Stewert type and it is worth noting that Stewert also came in as a mature ager. He would also strengthen our intercept marking in defence which is already a strength of the team. Giving us a real advantage in the air over the competition would be a big deal.

Overall I am not hating this idea.
 

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Quigley said:
I had a quick look at him last night and he would not be the worst option. He played in the SANFL so we have actually seen him play this year which is more than most other options. He is a very good judge of the ball in the air, has nice hands, has good option taking and really nice weight on his kicks. He is also a mature body and could come in and play right away.

He is a medium defender who I think could come in and play the role Birchall did this year and play it well. He also offers cover for Gardner and Lester which we need. We quite a few 4 backs in the offseason and it does make sense to add some more depth especially depth that can play right away. We would have had a good chance to watch and play against him when he was in the NEAFL so they should have a good idea about him to start with and the fact that he stood up and continued to develop in the SANFL would be a positive as well.

At his best he could be a Tom Stewert type and it is worth noting that Stewert also came in as a mature ager. He would also strengthen our intercept marking in defence which is already a strength of the team. Giving us a real advantage in the air over the competition would be a big deal.

Overall I am not hating this idea.
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It seems really strange when we’re looking at a Birchall clone when we just traded the perfect replacement in Witherden
 
blueiris said:
It seems really strange when we’re looking at a Birchall clone when we just traded the perfect replacement in Witherden
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Similarities:
  • Long kick
Differences:
  • Composure under pressure
  • Ability to win a contest
Unfortunately for Alex the differences were in an area the club focuses very highly on. So no, he wasn't the perfect replacement.

(Though I'd expected us to give him more time to work on those, but that's a separate discussion.)
 
Quigley said:
I had a quick look at him last night and he would not be the worst option. He played in the SANFL so we have actually seen him play this year which is more than most other options. He is a very good judge of the ball in the air, has nice hands, has good option taking and really nice weight on his kicks. He is also a mature body and could come in and play right away.

He is a medium defender who I think could come in and play the role Birchall did this year and play it well. He also offers cover for Gardner and Lester which we need. We quite a few 4 backs in the offseason and it does make sense to add some more depth especially depth that can play right away. We would have had a good chance to watch and play against him when he was in the NEAFL so they should have a good idea about him to start with and the fact that he stood up and continued to develop in the SANFL would be a positive as well.

At his best he could be a Tom Stewert type and it is worth noting that Stewert also came in as a mature ager. He would also strengthen our intercept marking in defence which is already a strength of the team. Giving us a real advantage in the air over the competition would be a big deal.

Overall I am not hating this idea.
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The year Stewart was drafted the lions had their eyes on recruiting him as well. He was playing in the local league for Barwon Heads from memory and was a standout in that competition. With the new rules coming into play next year the game style might change to a kick and mark style because the man on the mark will have to stay stationary. Maybe the lions are looking at a project player that can intercept the ball going forward? Personally I reckon we have quite a few players who can play in the backline so it is not an area of need. I would have thought they we need a project ruckman, winger or an inside/outside on baller or maybe they just select the best player for our first pick.
 
Ralphy2017 said:
i saw a similar article on the internet the other day and we have Andrews as that 1 in 100. Also believe Payne and Answerth will play in excess of 100 games and if, so we have done well.
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I would be good to see if there is a person or club that has a really good record at spotting talent over and above the averages. In Rugby League there is one, was one, with the Brisbane Broncos, I wonder if there is a really good recruiter out there. I looked at out first round picks and we kinda seem to be 1 in 3 with a good one.
 

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Royboy1961 said:
The year Stewart was drafted the lions had their eyes on recruiting him as well. He was playing in the local league for Barwon Heads from memory and was a standout in that competition. With the new rules coming into play next year the game style might change to a kick and mark style because the man on the mark will have to stay stationary. Maybe the lions are looking at a project player that can intercept the ball going forward? Personally I reckon we have quite a few players who can play in the backline so it is not an area of need. I would have thought they we need a project ruckman, winger or an inside/outside on baller or maybe they just select the best player for our first pick.
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I agree that ruck should be the higher priority but after that I don't mind them going with a medium defender. There were a lot of outs and whilst we have stocked up there over the last few years I think adding a player back there would not be wasted and would be insurance if the younger players do not develop as we hope.
 
Clarkythelion said:
I would be good to see if there is a person or club that has a really good record at spotting talent over and above the averages. In Rugby League there is one, was one, with the Brisbane Broncos, I wonder if there is a really good recruiter out there. I looked at out first round picks and we kinda seem to be 1 in 3 with a good one.
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The Broncos also had the biggest talent factory in the nation all to themselves for the best part of 20 years between Brisbane and the Gold Coast, and still have all of Brisbane to themselves. It'd be like West Coast if there were no draft and no Freo, they'd be stacked every year and pick up any good player who got homesick. You could argue the Broncos have underperformed in talent acquisition compared to the resources they've had, notably missing Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk, Jonathan Thurston and Israel Folau, all of whom grew up in Brisbane.

The team you should have named is the Storm, they've had a superstar every year despite not having any real local talent to draw from.
 
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Dylan12 said:
I thought Sam was too vanilla and not damaging enough for most on here?

I assume many would change their tune if Sam did come north; assuming the Lions did draft his brother.

FWIW, I like Sam a lot as a player irrespective of what some say about him on the Lions board.
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Got to be honest with you Dylan, I really don't remember many if at all claiming that Sam was too vanilla.

I think in actual fact what did happen is that we started to win games in the back half of 2018 (ruling us out of pick 1) and then ended up trading the pick for Lachie Neale. I vaguely remember some people not wanting to do that later/being annoyed at us winning games.

I should say that I think Sam is already a good player but at this stage I'd pick a few from that draft over him e.g. both Kings, Bailey Smith, Butters.
 
We've probably considered all of these options and more. Just comes down to where our picks finally reside and who's still available one suspects, including where the bids for Coleman come. It's possible we will go with Carter Michael from the Academy if none of these mature defenders are available at our picks.
 
Tom14 said:
Got to be honest with you Dylan, I really don't remember many if at all claiming that Sam was too vanilla.

I think in actual fact what did happen is that we started to win games in the back half of 2018 (ruling us out of pick 1) and then ended up trading the pick for Lachie Neale. I vaguely remember some people not wanting to do that later/being annoyed at us winning games.

I should say that I think Sam is already a good player but at this stage I'd pick a few from that draft over him e.g. both Kings, Bailey Smith, Butters.
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That's where I'm at and it's because he's too vanilla. Might rack up more touches than Lyons or McCluggage but he's probably behind them because he's not as useful in the clinches or as damaging on the outside.

He's still going to be an A grader but won't be a Judd or a Dangerfield or even a Josh Kennedy
 

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List Mgmt. 2020 Draft (December 9) discussion thread

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