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List Mgmt. 2020 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread - Part 2

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kp junior said:
Henry and out first for pick 5 if McDonald makes it that far. Who says no ?
Click to expand...

It's not possible. You can't trade players during the draft - only picks.

People are building up McDonald as if he's going to be the next second coming. There have been plenty of failed KPF that looked fantastic as 17 year olds. Let's not sell the earth for someone who had a good patch of games in the WAFL.
 
Snuffaluphagus said:
Worst case scenario is a silly way to look at it. Best case scenario is we get Josh Kennedy and Hawks get two duds. I would easily pay two picks in the terms for a young WA KPF
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Not worth the risk......



Took a risk on Josh Simpson who was a hell of a talent. Didnt work out.

took a risk on Michael Apeness. Fair enough at the time as freo needed a KPF/ruck. he got injuries. Didnt work out.

Took a Risk on the Harley Bennell trade(s). On the surface the acutal trade was sort of ok. But Bennell played 2 dockers games in late 2017 and 20-25 WAFL games for peel from 2016 to 2019. the 3 picks we got on that Harley bennell trade(s) was Darcy Tucker, Harley Balic and Sam Collins. Tucker is a solid player in freos best 22. Balic had some ability but didnt work out. Sam Collins I wished he kept as he would of been solid depth in the back line.

Took a Risk on Jesse Hogan trading picks 6 and 23 to get him.

Again, happy for freo to take that risk?

If we do, Lets look back in around 2028-2030 and watch hawks beat us in Another grand final, having 2 elite mids that tear us apart because we stupidly handed them 2 picks for the hope that mcdonald is going to be a good player.

Remember, Freo traded picks 1, 20 and 36 to the hawks for Luke McPharlin and Trent Croad at the end of 2001.

Pick 1 was Luke Hodge, Pick 36 was sam mitchell and Trent croad moved back 2 years later.

And to think freo offered a couple of 1st rounders for a 2nd tall in cam McCarthy at the end of 2015. So that was pick 16 and potitienally pick 3 due to our slip.


Dont Get me wrong, I do want freo to win a premiership before I am in a coffin or before I am cremated.

But pissing away 1st rounders on "potiential" that doesnt get fufilled doesnt sit well with me.
 
From Cal Twomey's Late Mail on the AFL Website:
At Tuesday's draft rehearsal involving clubs logging in to the online link remotely, rivals spotted Perkins, Cox and Brayden Cook's names circled and placed alongside the magnets of already-listed Bombers in different parts of the ground.

Cook could be gone well before our First pick at the draft :anguished:
 
Freomaniac said:
But pissing away 1st rounders on "potiential" that doesnt get fufilled doesnt sit well with me.
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We are going to do that at least once this season. Our first round pick is no guarantee to be any superstar at the 15th best player in the draft. Neither is our first round pick next season which I'm hoping is closer to 10th if not later.

The argument against trading our two firsts isn't a historical one at all. If we had pick #5 and were offered #10 and #15 for it this season we wouldn't take it either.

The chance of a star player is better when there are less choices before you got to pick. That's the tall and short of it.

If we had a chance to take our last top five pick, let alone top ten, for the next five years by giving up what are hopefully junk first round choices then that's a huge win for us.

Not as much as the Bulldogs though who will get a pick number one after playing finals and trading out nothing for it.
 

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heypenny said:
It's not possible. You can't trade players during the draft - only picks.

People are building up McDonald as if he's going to be the next second coming. There have been plenty of failed KPF that looked fantastic as 17 year olds. Let's not sell the earth for someone who had a good patch of games in the WAFL.
Click to expand...

So the rules says no


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Snuffaluphagus said:
Worst case scenario is a silly way to look at it. Best case scenario is we get Josh Kennedy and Hawks get two duds. I would easily pay two picks in the terms for a young WA KPF
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yeah if we could get do 15 + our 1st for a pick to get us McDonald, Walls would be filling out the paperwork in world record time
 
heypenny said:
It's not possible. You can't trade players during the draft - only picks.

People are building up McDonald as if he's going to be the next second coming. There have been plenty of failed KPF that looked fantastic as 17 year olds. Let's not sell the earth for someone who had a good patch of games in the WAFL.
Click to expand...

There’s been plenty of 17 yr old KPF’s who’ve looked fantastic in the WAFL ???

Like who exactly

AFL recruiters are too smart for their own good anyway if he’s still there at 5

15 and say pick 9 wouldn’t even be selling Kwinana let alone the earth


Sent from my iPad using BigFooty.com
 
Freomaniac said:
Not worth the risk......



Took a risk on Josh Simpson who was a hell of a talent. Didnt work out.

took a risk on Michael Apeness. Fair enough at the time as freo needed a KPF/ruck. he got injuries. Didnt work out.

Took a Risk on the Harley Bennell trade(s). On the surface the acutal trade was sort of ok. But Bennell played 2 dockers games in late 2017 and 20-25 WAFL games for peel from 2016 to 2019. the 3 picks we got on that Harley bennell trade(s) was Darcy Tucker, Harley Balic and Sam Collins. Tucker is a solid player in freos best 22. Balic had some ability but didnt work out. Sam Collins I wished he kept as he would of been solid depth in the back line.

Took a Risk on Jesse Hogan trading picks 6 and 23 to get him.

Again, happy for freo to take that risk?

If we do, Lets look back in around 2028-2030 and watch hawks beat us in Another grand final, having 2 elite mids that tear us apart because we stupidly handed them 2 picks for the hope that mcdonald is going to be a good player.

Remember, Freo traded picks 1, 20 and 36 to the hawks for Luke McPharlin and Trent Croad at the end of 2001.

Pick 1 was Luke Hodge, Pick 36 was sam mitchell and Trent croad moved back 2 years later.

And to think freo offered a couple of 1st rounders for a 2nd tall in cam McCarthy at the end of 2015. So that was pick 16 and potitienally pick 3 due to our slip.


Dont Get me wrong, I do want freo to win a premiership before I am in a coffin or before I am cremated.

But pissing away 1st rounders on "potiential" that doesnt get fufilled doesnt sit well with me.
Click to expand...
What Freo has done in the past is inconsequential, we aren’t cursed and doomed to have worst case scenario always happen. Fact of the matter is every single elite player has come from the draft, the higher up the draft you go, the better chance you have of getting talent through the door as you rightly pointed out with the low teens picks of Apeness and Simpson.

We all like to congratulate our drafting team for the last few years for doing a great job but what do all bar Sturt have in common, they are top 10 picks. Trading pick 14/15 and a future 1st that should be a teens pick as well for the exact player we need, who was the 2nd highest goal kicker in the WAFL at 18 would be a no brainer
 
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tonygeeks said:
There’s been plenty of 17 yr old KPF’s who’ve looked fantastic in the WAFL ???

Like who exactly

AFL recruiters are too smart for their own good anyway if he’s still there at 5

15 and say pick 9 wouldn’t even be selling Kwinana let alone the earth
Click to expand...

Read my post again Tony. I said there's been plenty of promising 17 year old KPF that haven't worked out. I didn't specify from the WAFL.

2011- Jon Patton; 2013 - Tom Boyd; 2014 - Patty MacCartin; 2015 - Josh Schache. All pick one or two in the draft. You can keep going further too - with Butcher, Watts etc. The point is. There are no guarantees with seventeen year olds. Yes I would love to pick up McDonald but we're not in the position to.
 
Snuffaluphagus said:
What Freo has done in the past is inconsequential, we aren’t cursed and doomed to have worst case scenario always happen. Fact of the matter is every single elite player has come from
The draft, the higher up the draft you go, the better chance you have of getting talent through the door as you rightly pointed out with the low teens picks of Apeness and Simpson.

We all like to congratulate our drafting team for the last few years for doing a great job but what do all bar Sturt have in common, they are top 10 picks. Trading pick 14/15 and a future 1st that should be a teens pick as well for the exact player we need, who was the 2nd highest goal kicker in the WAFL at 18 would be a no brainer
Click to expand...
ok.... 1st off, Lets not deny freo has done some stupid trades from 1994-2006.

I specifically mention that period because from 1995-2010, freo only made finals only in 3 of those 16 years in which there were 8 finals spots in a then 16 team league. So a 50/50 chance to make finals each year. while other non-vic sides suchs as Adelaide, Brisbane, Port, Sydney and West Coast made finals at least 7 times and at least played in 2 grand finals for at least 1 flag in that Same 16 year period.

I assure you this, Had freo used their 1st and 2nd rounders more wisely in that 1994-2006 period, I am not saying we were certain to win a flag or at least made a grand final. Freo could of or at Least should of made finals at least 6-7 of those years out of that 16 year period from 1995-2010.

As I have posted many times on here. I will always savour every final freo has played under Ross Lyon.

I will definately savour freos next final when we make one again.


I have had mixed opinions on down grading our early 1st rounder in a trade such as when we finished 14th in 2017 and 2018 when freo had pick 5, I have suggested in the right cirumstances trade our 1st and 3rd which was pick 5 and 41 for the 9th placed teams mid 1st, mid 2nd and mid 3rd pick which is around picks 10, 28 and 46. At least all eggs are not thrown into one basket. If pick 10 ended up a dud, nail pick 28 and 46.

My issue isnt using the 1st rounder for getting the best available.

My issue is what you posted in trading this years and next years 1st for pick 2.

I am not a fan of trading all eggs in one basket or selling the farm, Because at freo, it never ever ends well.

If you can tell me one time trading all the eggs on one basket has ended up giving freo a flag, please let me know.
 
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Snuffaluphagus said:
We all like to congratulate our drafting team for the last few years for doing a great job but what do all bar Sturt have in common, they are top 10 picks. Trading pick 14/15 and a future 1st that should be a teens pick as well for the exact player we need, who was the 2nd highest goal kicker in the WAFL at 18 would be a no brainer
Click to expand...

I'm not sure pick 12 and a future first would cut it for Hawthorn. I think it was Twomey today that said GWS offered 13 or 15 and a future first for pick 8 which Essendon knocked back. If so, I find it hard for the Hawks to accept a similar deal for a position in the top 5.
 
Polak at least rates a mention over the last page of posts. He is the closest thing to taking a sure thing KPF in the top end of the draft as we have ever had the opportunity to muster.

But I am with Snuff. We are not doomed to be who we have been in the past. The next one is going to be a beauty.
 
I must admit I’m hoping Chapman is available & we select him with our first. Obviously not the key forward we need, but he may appeal in freeing up a key defender to play forward, I.e Brennan Cox.

I still think Cox was drafted to play forward, but obviously had to go back this year. Up until Hamling went down, Cox was a forward at Freo.

Just love the way Chapman takes the game on at half back & always plays on & spreads. It’s exactly what we need for quicker ball movement & improved inside 50 delivery catching opposition defence out to get Tabs, Lobb & Fyfe 1v1 contesting.

After 2 or 3 years in the system, I definitely expect him to move into the midfield & he reminds me of Mundy & I expect his progression to be similar.

On another note, I just don’t see why we have committed to Banfield when you’ve got a better option in his current position in Alec Waterman ready to be grabbed cheaply.
 
heypenny said:
Read my post again Tony. I said there's been plenty of promising 17 year old KPF that haven't worked out. I didn't specify from the WAFL.

the bold your right there are no guarantees but what makes you think our pick 15 and likely 9/10 will be any guarantee??
2011- Jon Patton; 2013 - Tom Boyd; 2014 - Patty MacCartin; 2015 - Josh Schache. All pick one or two in the draft. You can keep going further too - with Butcher, Watts etc. The point is. There are no guarantees with seventeen year olds. Yes I would love to pick up McDonald but we're not in the position to.
Click to expand...

Patton-actually will end up carving out half decent career considering he’s done 3 knees.Was near top shelf in 2016 for the giants.
Boyd-always was essentially a man child but still was instrumental in bulldogs flag and only quit due to mental issues.
Mccartin- also now retired but due to concussion issues,
Must also be remembered has diabetes’s
Schache- the only one of that lot you can genuinely call a true bust (tho also has done mental issues)

....but here’s where things get really interesting regarding kpfs or more direct highly rated WA kpfs (still playing):
Lance Franklin-enough said
Josh Kennedy-will go down as eagles all time great
Jack darling-flog but will still end up eagles great.
Oscar Allen-already one of AFLs most promising kpf
Aaron Naughton-see above
Mitch georgiades-looks like bona fide star
And one your familar with ,Jesse hogan-clear off field issues but his record till 2018 as a young kpf was as good as any kpf first few sessons of last 15 or so years

even guys like McCarthy and Mitch Clark at their peak showed considerable talent.
The only notable one I can think of that didn’t work out is Scott gumbleton and every one knows the reasons there.

So whilst all those names you mentioned didn’t live up to the hype (so often simply the result of being Victoria’s u18s “next big thing” )the success rate of wa kpfs (whilst obviously not as many ) is actually pretty good

And given everything McDonald’s done this year against men in the wafl I’d be as confident as any young kpf thats come through in many year that at the VERY LEAST you’d be getting a more than serviceable kpf for 10+ years.

It’s all moot anyway because (as you you’ve noted)hawthornknow what a lopsided deal it is in our favour so won’t even entertain it
 
fnerd said:
Patton-actually will end up carving out half decent career considering he’s done 3 knees.Was near top shelf in 2016 for the giants.
Boyd-always was essentially a man child but still was instrumental in bulldogs flag and only quit due to mental issues.
Mccartin- also now retired but due to concussion issues,
Must also be remembered has diabetes’s
Schache- the only one of that lot you can genuinely call a true bust (tho also has done mental issues)

....but here’s where things get really interesting regarding kpfs or more direct highly rated WA kpfs (still playing):
Lance Franklin-enough said
Josh Kennedy-will go down as eagles all time great
Jack darling-flog but will still end up eagles great.
Oscar Allen-already one of AFLs most promising kpf
Aaron Naughton-see above
Mitch georgiades-looks like bona fide star
And one your familar with ,Jesse hogan-clear off field issues but his record till 2018 as a young kpf was as good as any kpf first few sessons of last 15 or so years

even guys like McCarthy and Mitch Clark at their peak showed considerable talent.
The only notable one I can think of that didn’t work out is Scott gumbleton and every one knows the reasons there.

So whilst all those names you mentioned didn’t live up to the hype (so often simply the result of being Victoria’s u18s “next big thing” )the success rate of wa kpfs (whilst obviously not as many ) is actually pretty good

And given everything McDonald’s done this year against men in the wafl I’d be as confident as any young kpf thats come through in many year that at the VERY LEAST you’d be getting a more than serviceable kpf for 10+ years.

It’s all moot anyway because (as you you’ve noted)hawthornknow what a lopsided deal it is in our favour so won’t even entertain it
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I think Scott Gumbleton was statistically the best key forward who’d played less than 50 games ever...

He was actually pretty good just could barely play more than 2-3 games in a row.
 
Good post and analysis fnerd. Patton, Boyd, Schahe have all been unlucky but still busts in my eyes as either pick 1s or 2s (which I know is harsh). It's the same reason why I don't count Morabito and Palmer as wins. Unfortunately injuries curtailed their careers.

Agree the strike rate is better from the West (as WA kids are probably under rated from the Vic press). For example, I don't know how Oscar Allen slipped so far in 2017 when you looked at his form and carnival.

I'm not trying to talk down the ability of McDonald. He looks like a beauty but not sure what we can give up to get him (IF he slips to pick 5). Pick 12, a future first and future second would make me a tad uncomfortable. I can't see 12 and a future first cutting it.

If we're playing basketball sure, but there's more than 5 on a footy field. We need great depth. Not to sell the farm for one player.
 

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GeEkNeRd said:
Sounds like he nailed Freo's picks last year;
Click to expand...
From memory he knew we would take Young (not amazing foresight as about half of the recruiters had him at 3) and wasn't sure about 8 and just thew up the names in that range (Serong, Stephens and Flanders from memory).

Pretty sure the year before he had us taking Hill up until the actual draft and never once mentioned Sturt. Similar pick range to this year.

And then, he also literally (in the traditional sense) said publicly in the last week or so that he doesn't know what we are going to do.
 
Joao said:
From memory he knew we would take Young (not amazing foresight as about half of the recruiters had him at 3) and wasn't sure about 8 and just thew up the names in that range (Serong, Stephens and Flanders from memory).

Pretty sure the year before he had us taking Hill up until the actual draft and never once mentioned Sturt. Similar pick range to this year.

And then, he also literally (in the traditional sense) said publicly in the last week or so that he doesn't know what we are going to do.
Click to expand...
He had us taking Young and Serong, in that order, in his final phantom. So he was right.
 
Joao said:
From memory he knew we would take Young (not amazing foresight as about half of the recruiters had him at 3) and wasn't sure about 8 and just thew up the names in that range (Serong, Stephens and Flanders from memory).

Pretty sure the year before he had us taking Hill up until the actual draft and never once mentioned Sturt. Similar pick range to this year.

And then, he also literally (in the traditional sense) said publicly in the last week or so that he doesn't know what we are going to do.
Click to expand...

In 2019 he had us taking Hill but in his phantom he said we had done work on Sturt and he was a possibility. He's the only one who actually talks to recruiters and although we're clearly not as close to him as the Victorian teams we obviously give him a few names we've looked at
 
Paracleet said:
He had us taking Young and Serong, in that order, in his final phantom. So he was right.
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That was draft day right? The day/s before he was tossing up the second pick I think.

I am pretty sure at some point he just goes with his gut and locks in a phantom. Again he pretty much said as much with this year.

I am not sure how people are questioning this when Cal himself said it is the case. Getting it right isn't the same as having inside knowledge.
 

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List Mgmt. 2020 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread - Part 2

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