List Mgmt. 2020 Trade and List Management Thread III

[King Corey]

Not nearly as likely as that would have been a year or two ago. GC won't be a bad destination for AFL players over the next few years. If they don't play finals net year you'd think they'd be knocking on the door. And their talent pool is only getting deeper.

It's a garbage premise anyway.

We've never poached a high rated kid out of them ever and they're almost a decade into their franchise life.

 

[RobZombie]

I've seen a few people suggest this and I don't really get it. I know they've got Daicos next year, but he might get injured or play poorly, or maybe Collingwood collapse after their list management debacle and get a pick ahead of where Daicos is projected to go. IMO they'd be stupid to trade that 2021 1st without actually knowing, or having an educated guess if it would be swallowed by a Daicos bid.

Sure but McInnes factors in here too. If they want a decent 1st + Reef, there's a cost of doing business there. You have to pay overs to move up. If they get effectively an extra player + points, future 1st is a fair price regardless of that risk.

It is likely one that goes down to the wire in live trading though.

 

[koshari]

It's a garbage premise anyway.

We've never poached a high rated kid out of them ever and they're almost a decade into their franchise life.

sounds like the whole spittas brother scenario over again. (we did get hall) :sternlook.

 

[AnEmptyChair]

Sure but McInnes factors in here too. If they want a decent 1st + Reef, there's a cost of doing business there. You have to pay overs to move up. If they get effectively an extra player + points, future 1st is a fair price regardless of that risk.

It is likely one that goes down to the wire in live trading though.

Good point, if Twomey's guide is anything to go by, after that trade with the Dogs both their 2020 first round picks should be ahead of a McInnes bid. I think they have enough capital in 14 and 16 to move up the order if they like, but I also wouldn't be surprised if, given the players they've cut and their general lack of youth, they take 14 and 16 to the draft, hopefully (for them) also add McInnes on top of that and then hope that Daicos is projected to be taken after their first next year.

 

[King Corey]

sounds like the whole spittas brother scenario over again. (we did get hall) :sternlook.

Even then we'd had cracks at him when he was younger and he knocked us back.

 

[hurricane]

That deal sounds too good to be true, even given GC’s lack of need for picks this year.

I don’t think we’d touch it without the R1 next year, but I reckon GC would want our R2 next year back in exchange.

I’d still do it.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

Maybe the Crows? They have a few father-son/academy prospects.

The other clubs with early academy prospects are the Swans, Power and Pies.

With the 197 point discount being applied to any pick after the 1st round, I would say we're safe for bids on our NGA/FS with picks 40,56,66.

We're not even sure if we'll be taking all 3, as Edwards might not nominate for F/S with the Crows.

 

[Val Keating]

It's not that far fetched - especially given they only plan to use their first pick this year

Give up all that for a couple of spots in the draft? Seems a lot especially if they have a shit year next year.

 

[New_Roo]

Suspect Collingwood will try and package 16 with their 2021 first to try and move up the draft, rather than trading it for lower picks.

They will be trying to get a pick in before McInnes bid


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Star]

Give up all that for a couple of spots in the draft? Seems a lot especially if they have a sh*t year next year.

They aren't giving up anything. They go from #5 as their only pick to #2 being their only pick

 

[giantroo]

With the 197 point discount being applied to any pick after the 1st round, I would say we're safe for bids on our NGA/FS with picks 40,56,66.

We're not even sure if we'll be taking all 3, as Edwards might not nominate for F/S with the Crows.

Thanks for clarifying. I knew you had a few prospects but wasn't certain if you had enough points to cover.

 

[Val Keating]

They aren't giving up anything. They go from #5 as their only pick to #2 being their only pick

And round 1 next year was thrown in there. Not sure I have it in me to death ride another club again tbh.

 

[NewNorth]

Don't treat it as gospel.

But where there's smoke there's fire in these rumors leading up to the draft when it comes to pick swaps and draft ordering.

They tend to have some weight to them.

Kingy on twitter is asking about potential pick swaps for pick 2.
In my time watching and following him, I have never heard him talk about the draft - or am I just putting 2 and 2 together, and coming up with 12?
Its like he is putting out there potential swaps that would never happen, so that when it does happen, we are like 'wow, what a deal'

 

[New_Roo]

Would there be any other clubs looking to swap one of their earlier picks for our picks worth more points GR? If the deal Pykie discussed happens and we had 5, 11, 27, 30, 37, 39, 71, 81 I doubt we would want to use all those picks

We can't use all those picks as don't have enough spots on the list.... who is left unsigned just two? So even delisting them it's only 7 spots and 8 picks but the 8th is a 5th rder


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Thewlis Dish]

They will be trying to get a pick in before McInnes bid


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yes I know, I mean they would likely be targeting a higher pick than 11 if they are giving up their first rounder next year.

 

[Deleted member 98541]

Mixed emotions with the 2 for 5 pick swap. (actually i started this post with mixed emotions, by the time i finished, I'm actually adamant about what ther club should do.)

For the second year in a row we are reducing our access to top end talent.

If we do this pick swap, and avoid bottom 3 next year, LDU is our great white hope for that absolute gun of the comp player. No knocks on the kid, but i'd feel much more comfortable having two other top 3 draft picks competing for the honours.

In fact, the more i think on this, the more i object.

1) We can access picks like 27 and 37 anytime, just get them out of your dreamy draft point eyes for a second, they are irrelevant when talking about elite traits and top players of the comp, which is EXACTLY what this club needs. #****thelaterpicks

2) We failed miserably at recruiting the top players through FA - hence, we must now draft them. This deal 'could' be like having Martin at the club with contract in hand, then saying, "oh wait, we have club x on the line (*), they are willing to offer us player Y and Z instead". Player Y & Z are both handy players don't get me wrong, but the sum impact is no Martin, Bont, Fyfe, Danger, Kelly etc . It's ****ing ludicrous to think you'd do that if you had Martin on the hook, so why do it now with the possibility of drafting the next Martin.


We've copped shit draft picks as far as i can remember, i really hope they know what their doing cos i couldnt give a flying **** if a deal is won or lost on points value, or late 2nd, early 3rd draft picks. Our dees pick this year is in no man's land, there is nothing to say GC's 2021 isn't around the 10 to 12 mark either before or after FA compo's come in, yes, there are a few on offer next year too.

It's the calibre of player we end up with that matters. The list has lacked that gun, star, hyped, match winner, as stated in the best 22 thread, we have a pretty even spread, we need that top tier to go to the next level.


In fact, at nearly every opportunity we have lost draft position to gain a late 20's early 30's pick. This slide may gain us a pick around 8 to 14. That's a nice pick, but is it worth watching on as the career's of the players taken before 5 go into overdrive?

Has there ever been as much talk about a club trading OUT of the top 3? Why is this? They wouldn't be saying it if the top 3 was Ess, Coll, Rich. We are seen as a club that can be fiddled with it seems.


Deal 1 (loss based on 1st round draft position). 2019 pick 8 out, 2019 pick 26 and 2020 pick 13-14 in.

Deal 2: (straight out loss based on draft postition) 2020 pick (24 to 27) for 2019 pick 30

Deal 3 . (Win based in draft position). 2019 pick 30 for 2020 28ish



I get that we needed a massive list turn over, and was justyfying the dees pick swap throughout the season as it gave us one extra pick regardless, but as time goes on and that deal plays out, plus thinking out about the way this GC one can play out, I'm saying take pick 2 to the draft and bring in BEST available, not NEXT BEST, which is exactly what this club has been for so long.





(*) Yes, Club X, cos they would be ****ing us

 

[New_Roo]

As someone else mentioned, if the deal with gc goes ahead do we then try to trade back in and try grab adelaides first pick and swap with our 1st next assuming they think we will be crap again and will double their chance of getting Horne next year..... then we will have 1 5 and 11 and what 4 2nd rders to package... having said all that can't see ade giving up a first


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[joegreen]

I've been very much in the keep pick 2 camp. We'd have to be absolutely certain in our ratings of the top 5 players, that there is nothing between 2 and 5. I'm no judge of jnr talent and can only go on others reports. Seems some see JUH/McDonald/Holland as a clear top 3. A gap then to the others... While some see DGB, Phillips, Thilthorpe as just as good if not better. How does it go?? In Brady we trust?? Ballsy move.

Must include GC R1 2021. We only give them pick 2, nothing else back. They either want it or not.

FWIW I am bullish on GC improving next year. Expect them to challenge for a finals spot. Especially if they get pick 2 and McDonald or Holland are good to go!

 

[NewNorth]

Couple of things to keep in mind.

If we keep pick 2, we need to make sure the kid doesn't feel like he is our savour, similar to what happened to Jack Watts.
If we go back to pick 5, I think we end up with Phillips, who is a mid, when we had the chance to draft a KPP. Do we look at Cox or Reid at 5 instead? Any chance Crows go with Logan, and Thilthorpe/Hollands slides to us at 5?
That extra first rounder in 2021 could be valuable from a trade perspective, to bring another 21-22yr old in.
I think we take 5 picks max to the draft this year (based on Q+A), so that pick 37 might be useless to us.

I think Essendon will come hard for pick 2 - so playing GC and Dons against each other should net us a premium

We talking about 18 yr old kids here, we cant be putting all our hopes on them. Pick 2 is not going to turn us into a top 4 side next year or in 2022.

We got to trust Luff, Brady, Clayton and Finnigan. (WE ARE NOT GOING TO REBUILD IN ONE DRAFT)

 

[hilly]

We're united on this one mate. Both pick 2 and the Dodo.

They ( * ) must be getting this dialogue into the media.

Dodoro and Finnigan are sitting together waiting for other staff from both clubs to join them.

Finnigan says as an aside "who knows, maybe picks 7 and 8 are worth more than pick 2?"..

..Dodoro looks left then right, leans forward and says softly "mate, I said the same thing and everyone shouted me down and I've been in this caper for 2 decades. They reckon I'll get sacked for doing this trade but I can see a clear win-win. You obviously know your stuff champ."

As he makes the comment Dodo happens to pat Finnigan on the arm and immediately stops mid action exclaiming "Mate! You workout or something? You like a bodybuilder or MMA fighter or something?"

Finnigan is now all softened and mentally pliable as Dodoro smiles politely as everyone else joins them knowing he's already got a vote at the North table.

Turn it up, grabbed a 2nd rounder off them last year for feck all. Dodoro trading picks is different to him buying or selling a player.

All in for trading 2 to the Suns. Can even bid on Reefer at some stage to annoy Collingwood. Make it happen Euge.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Lomas]

Mixed emotions with the 2 for 5 pick swap. (actually i started this post with mixed emotions, by the time i finished, I'm actually adamant about what ther club should do.)

For the second year in a row we are reducing our access to top end talent.

If we do this pick swap, and avoid bottom 3 next year, LDU is our great white hope for that absolute gun of the comp player. No knocks on the kid, but i'd feel much more comfortable having two other top 3 draft picks competing for the honours.

In fact, the more i think on this, the more i object.

1) We can access picks like 27 and 37 anytime, just get them out of your dreamy draft point eyes for a second, they are irrelevant when talking about elite traits and top players of the comp, which is EXACTLY what this club needs. #fu**thelaterpicks

2) We failed miserably at recruiting the top players through FA - hence, we must now draft them. This deal 'could' be like having Martin at the club with contract in hand, then saying, "oh wait, we have club x on the line (*), they are willing to offer us player Y and Z instead". Player Y & Z are both handy players don't get me wrong, but the sum impact is no Martin, Bont, Fyfe, Danger, Kelly etc . It's ******* ludicrous to think you'd do that if you had Martin on the hook, so why do it now with the possibility of drafting the next Martin.


We've copped sh*t draft picks as far as i can remember, i really hope they know what their doing cos i couldnt give a flying fu** if a deal is won or lost on points value, or late 2nd, early 3rd draft picks. Our dees pick this year is in no man's land, there is nothing to say GC's 2021 isn't around the 10 to 12 mark either before or after FA compo's come in, yes, there are a few on offer next year too.

It's the calibre of player we end up with that matters. The list has lacked that gun, star, hyped, match winner, as stated in the best 22 thread, we have a pretty even spread, we need that top tier to go to the next level.


In fact, at nearly every opportunity we have lost draft position to gain a late 20's early 30's pick. This slide may gain us a pick around 8 to 14. That's a nice pick, but is it worth watching on as the career's of the players taken before 5 go into overdrive?

Has there ever been as much talk about a club trading OUT of the top 3? Why is this? They wouldn't be saying it if the top 3 was Ess, Coll, Rich. We are seen as a club that can be fiddled with it seems.


Deal 1 (loss based on 1st round draft position). 2019 pick 8 out, 2019 pick 26 and 2020 pick 13-14 in.

Deal 2: (straight out loss based on draft postition) 2020 pick (24 to 27) for 2019 pick 30

Deal 3 . (Win based in draft position). 2019 pick 30 for 2020 28ish



I get that we needed a massive list turn over, and was justyfying the dees pick swap throughout the season as it gave us one extra pick regardless, but as time goes on and that deal plays out, plus thinking out about the way this GC one can play out, I'm saying take pick 2 to the draft and bring in BEST available, not NEXT BEST, which is exactly what this club has been for so long.





(*) Yes, Club X, cos they would be ******* us

You've convinced me! Play around with pick 11, the 2nd/3rd rounders and a future 2nd if we want to improve our draft hand/s.

 

[Star]

Folks (™Tef) are overthinking this and assuming we will be getting an inferior player or missing out on a 'star' if we went from #2 to #5.

Let me put it another (obviously hypothetical) way. Assume the club rates the draft JUH, then Will Phillips, then Thilthorpe, McDonald, DGB, Hollands

Would you rather take Phillips at #2 or would you rather take Phillips at #5 as well as another 1st and a couple of 2nds?

 

[GreatBradScott]

I don't want to trade it, but I will say this. Any pick 2 swap which happens needs to give the visceral reaction to everyone who sees the trade as "that's insane".

I don't care how one sided it seems. Leverage the shit out of it until reality bends.

 

[hilly]

Mixed emotions with the 2 for 5 pick swap. (actually i started this post with mixed emotions, by the time i finished, I'm actually adamant about what ther club should do.)

For the second year in a row we are reducing our access to top end talent.

If we do this pick swap, and avoid bottom 3 next year, LDU is our great white hope for that absolute gun of the comp player. No knocks on the kid, but i'd feel much more comfortable having two other top 3 draft picks competing for the honours.

In fact, the more i think on this, the more i object.

1) We can access picks like 27 and 37 anytime, just get them out of your dreamy draft point eyes for a second, they are irrelevant when talking about elite traits and top players of the comp, which is EXACTLY what this club needs. #fu**thelaterpicks

2) We failed miserably at recruiting the top players through FA - hence, we must now draft them. This deal 'could' be like having Martin at the club with contract in hand, then saying, "oh wait, we have club x on the line (*), they are willing to offer us player Y and Z instead". Player Y & Z are both handy players don't get me wrong, but the sum impact is no Martin, Bont, Fyfe, Danger, Kelly etc . It's ******* ludicrous to think you'd do that if you had Martin on the hook, so why do it now with the possibility of drafting the next Martin.


We've copped sh*t draft picks as far as i can remember, i really hope they know what their doing cos i couldnt give a flying fu** if a deal is won or lost on points value, or late 2nd, early 3rd draft picks. Our dees pick this year is in no man's land, there is nothing to say GC's 2021 isn't around the 10 to 12 mark either before or after FA compo's come in, yes, there are a few on offer next year too.

It's the calibre of player we end up with that matters. The list has lacked that gun, star, hyped, match winner, as stated in the best 22 thread, we have a pretty even spread, we need that top tier to go to the next level.


In fact, at nearly every opportunity we have lost draft position to gain a late 20's early 30's pick. This slide may gain us a pick around 8 to 14. That's a nice pick, but is it worth watching on as the career's of the players taken before 5 go into overdrive?

Has there ever been as much talk about a club trading OUT of the top 3? Why is this? They wouldn't be saying it if the top 3 was Ess, Coll, Rich. We are seen as a club that can be fiddled with it seems.


Deal 1 (loss based on 1st round draft position). 2019 pick 8 out, 2019 pick 26 and 2020 pick 13-14 in.

Deal 2: (straight out loss based on draft postition) 2020 pick (24 to 27) for 2019 pick 30

Deal 3 . (Win based in draft position). 2019 pick 30 for 2020 28ish



I get that we needed a massive list turn over, and was justyfying the dees pick swap throughout the season as it gave us one extra pick regardless, but as time goes on and that deal plays out, plus thinking out about the way this GC one can play out, I'm saying take pick 2 to the draft and bring in BEST available, not NEXT BEST, which is exactly what this club has been for so long.





(*) Yes, Club X, cos they would be ******* us

I think you're assuming there is a difference amongst the top five (not including the two academy players). There may not be.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Moti]

This was my thoughts on the trading prior to Pykie which probably makes the GC option more appealing:

So had a look at Cal's list and thinking about the possible trade scenarios. Not knowing a lot about the draft class, wondering thoughts on the following:

1. Keep Pick 2, draft McDonald or Hollands;

Following would only work if McDonald is there I would think:

2. Trade Pick 2 for GC Pick 5 and 2021 1st Rd (pick3-6?) - take Philips with 5, but not sure on Thillthorpe so if he is taken at 1, happy to proceed;

3. Trade Pick 2 plus either 2nd Rd or 11 for Ess 6,7,8
- Bruhn (midfield skill)
- Perkins (X-Factor mid/forward)
- Reid/Cox (KP defender)

Question is always if the sum is greater than the one.