List Mgmt. 2020 Trade and List Management Thread III

[speedy]

I'm sure they will lock down Simpson. Guthrie was emergency during the finals so would expect him to get an extension. Reckon Narkle could be on the outer.

We'd be able to offer him a much better deal and he will be fighting for a spot next year with the inclusions of Smith and Higgins. Its worth asking the question. We could walk him to the PSD. I'm surprised they haven't signed him yet.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Sorry if this is a dumb question
Could GC back door us/ shaft us and on trade pick 2 to *?

The scum would sound us out first.

 

[Deleted member 98541]

This isn't a loaded question, what precedence has there been for successful down grading of a top 5 pick like what is proposed?

If not a top 5 pick, what about the next tier of down grades / swaps that we could use as a case study?

 

[Pykie]

This isn't a loaded question, what precedence has there been for successful down grading of a top 5 pick like what is proposed?

If not a top 5 pick, what about the next tier of down grades / swaps that we could use as a case study?

GWS and Adelaide 2019.

Adelaide: Pick 4
GWS: Pick 6 & 2021 R1 (Pick 9)

 

[krakouers]

Don't disagree that pointing out a couple of high pick busts is indeed a dumb argument, was more so responding to another comment.

I also agree that the probably of getting a better player at Pick 2 is higher than say Pick 8 or 10 - it just has to be, but the % of probability lift is where I have the problem. I believe (not based on any fact finding) that the probably improvement whilst positive is only say 5-10%. So why not accept that it is a marginal game and take two shots at the dart board.

If this was the NFL and the juniors had had up to 3yrs of exposed form in college it would be a much more exact science, though still not imprecise. The draft is like trying to pick a yearling at the Inglis sales - yes a $500,000 purchase has a better chance of winning the Cox Plate than a $300,000 horse, but there is a lot of development that goes into that horse when it leaves the sale yard that makes all the difference.

I cannot remember exactly where I saw it (on Bigfooty) but have seen an average games vs pick number somewhere that wasn’t a bad guide

 

[RobZombie]

Having seen the arguments I’m in the keep pick 2 camp the top 5 appears way better than the rest of the class, pick 2 is a huge opportunity at a elite prospect (as opposed to a very good prospect).

Too many people banking on a future pick being good. I expect GC to be very competitive next year.

Just back the recruiting staff and pick a game changer. Who was the last game changer we’ve had


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Do you have them in the finals? If not it's a top 10 pick. IMO they're another year away from that without a lot of good luck.

 

[shinboner magic]

Yes be very lively on the night.... what about this scenario, if we keep pick 2 which I'm hoping for and bid on Campbell.... syd will then want to swap out their pick otherwise it will be gobbled up for when they match.... it would be perfect for us to grab that too then we can get both Hollands and lmac but we would have to give over our first rd next yr or syd may not want to trade with us having just wrecked their plans of getting two top ten picks..... ess wouldn't want it unless they were guaranteed of lmac and we still have our pick to come... so IF we aren't going him ie lmac do we then swap our two out for 6 and 7 and get back in first rd next yr with * first which should be better than ours in theory.... so we then have 3 6 and 7


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Bid on Campbell at 2 swans then trade with * for 3 - we then trade 2 for 3 and a future 1st from *.

Obviously there’s other picks scattered around between swans and * then us.

 

[Lomas]

I cannot remember exactly where I saw it (on Bigfooty) but have seen an average games vs pick number somewhere that wasn’t a bad guide

AFL Draft Picks Broken Down by Pick Number - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

Pick six is a bit of an outlier

 

[RobZombie]

This isn't a loaded question, what precedence has there been for successful down grading of a top 5 pick like what is proposed?

If not a top 5 pick, what about the next tier of down grades / swaps that we could use as a case study?

picks 5 & 6 changed hands a few times in 2018. Don't have time to write them all up ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_AFL_draft

Pick 2 went for Lachie Weller in 2017 but that's a real outlier

GWS paid overs to move up from 6 to 4 last year.

GWS paid 3 & 16 for 2, 31, 51, & 60 in 2016. Wanted Taranto and were worried about a Setterfield bid. Brisbane were happy to take McCluggage.

the 6 + future 1st for 4 is probably the closest but 5 to 2 or 6 to 2 should fetch considerably more than that.

 

[Joey7]

theres no chance we will give pick 2 for anything. if we do they should all be sacked - keep it, get the second best kid, market it and build around him.

 

[koshari]

This isn't a loaded question, what precedence has there been for successful down grading of a top 5 pick like what is proposed?

If not a top 5 pick, what about the next tier of down grades / swaps that we could use as a case study?

godees ultimately traded kelly for salem and tyson allthough some sources say they were into billings.

 

[R00StaR]

I'd be more than happy with Phillips as our first whether it be for pick 2 or pick 5. If Will Phillips is three quarters of the player that Matt Rowell

18

Matt Rowell

Age

24

Ht

180cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

5star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

is, he'll be a big plus.

Are we building a good team or a premiership team?

Im mean 3/4s of Rowell, then we give pick 2 to GC as well who then get the player they actually think is better.

Seems like many are happy for a scatter gun approach. By god i hope the club can actually identity star quality with pick 2, if not we're in for a world of pain - or more pain i should say and they are in the wrong game.

To me not having the conviction of picking the player you really think is best and allowing others to leave you the slops is weak.

If we think Phillips is the best player in the draft why risk him not being there at 5,6,7 or whatever else? Praying other teams cant identify his talents is failed logic. We cant pick who is best? Get different recruiters.

 

[Psicosis]

Are we building a good team or a premiership team?

Im mean 3/4s of Rowell, then we give pick 2 to GC as well who then get the player they actually think is better.

Seems like many are happy for a scatter gun approach. By god i hope the club can actually identity star quality with pick 2, if not we're in for a world of pain - or more pain i should say and they are in the wrong game.

To me not having the conviction of picking the player you really think is best and allowing others to leave you the slops is weak.

If we think Phillips is the best player in the draft why risk him not being there at 5,6,7 or whatever else? Praying other teams cant identify his talents is failed logic. We cant pick who is best? Get different recruiters.

It's a fair point.

All things going right, we'd hope to be the best young side in the comp in 2022. If we gift GC another superstar, how is this going to be possible?

Interesting food for thought, they are going to be peaking when we are...

 

[Kanga Glory]

Did anyone else hear Holland’s on SEN this morning, was ultra impressive. Gary Lyon commented that he speaks like Selwood.
Keep pick 2 and pick this man

 

[Lomas]

It's a fair point.

All things going right, we'd hope to be the best young side in the comp in 2022. If we gift GC another superstar, how is this going to be possible?

Interesting food for thought, they are going to be peaking when we are...

You can see GC using their extra list size and additional concessions to trade up their fist pick each year to really target one of the top few picks each year. Unless their advantages are wound back it could be trade up first pick, use second on established talent, and later picks on the kids they get first go at with no bidding.

 

[justroyal]

Did anyone else hear Holland’s on SEN this morning, was ultra impressive. Gary Lyon commented that he speaks like Selwood.
Keep pick 2 and pick this man

It's tough, the write up on the AFL site said Phillips is an AFL captain in the making

 

[Samsquanch]

Did anyone else hear Holland’s on SEN this morning, was ultra impressive. Gary Lyon commented that he speaks like Selwood.
Keep pick 2 and pick this man

If that can be cured then it's a yes from me.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

 

[chubbspeterson]

Crows might take him pick 1 given he lived in Adelaide earlier on. Be interesting if that happens.

 

[muttley45]

View attachment 1012609

If there was a prize for Posturing, Dodoro wins in a canter

 

[Reginald0]

and what cld possibly be better than living your life in Adelaide
A dream of many of us I’m sure

 

[hurricane]

View attachment 1012609

What does that actually mean? I like Cal but he might have been hanging around Tom Browne too much.

 

[Lomas]

and what cld possibly be better than living your life in Adelaide
A dream of many of us I’m sure

Please be nice, they're having a bad day.....

 

[Snake_Baker]

Did anyone else hear Holland’s on SEN this morning, was ultra impressive. Gary Lyon commented that he speaks like Selwood.
Keep pick 2 and pick this man

Brad Moran

Brad Moran

Age

39

Ht

201cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.2

3star

K

5.5

2star

HB

5.7

4star

CL

0.5

2star

HO

10.9

5star

No current season stats available

D

12.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

4.8

4star

HO

4.8

5star

also speaks impressively.

 

[7577969923]

Brad Moran

Brad Moran

Age

39

Ht

201cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.2

3star

K

5.5

2star

HB

5.7

4star

CL

0.5

2star

HO

10.9

5star

No current season stats available

D

12.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

4.8

4star

HO

4.8

5star

also speaks impressively.

I could always speak reasonably well. Only a certified lunatic would have drafted me though.

Pretty sure Hollands goes alright on the park as well.