Tbh I Twomey's ranking are more based on talking to clubs and player managers than anything. I'm not sure clubs who have **** all early draft picks would hold their rankings too close to their chest, nor player managers in general. Twomey therefore ends up reasonably accurate. His phantom draft is only more so. He doesn't seem to bother much past pick 30 which would explain the poorer results there (along with it being less predictable).This depends how you define hit and miss. This is Twomeys rankins 6 weeks out from the draft last year compared to the actual draft and the error in final placings:
Pick Name Variance 1Jamarra Ugle-Hagan 0 2Logan McDonald 2 3Elijah Hollands 4 4Riley Thilthorpe 2 5Denver Grainger-Barras 1 6Braeden Campbell 1 7Will Phillips 4 8Tanner Bruhn 4 9Oliver Henry 8 10Lachie Jones 6 11Zach Reid 1 12Finlay Macrae 7 13Archie Perkins 4 14Alex Davies PL 15Heath Chapman 1 16Brayden Cook 9 17Joel Jeffery PL 18Tom Powell 4 19Reef McInnes 4 20Jack Carrol 21 21Nik Cox 12 22Errol Gulden 10 23Connor Downie 12 24Bailey Laurie 2 25Zane Trew Rookie
He got 12 of the top 15 correct if you ignore gold coast pre lists and 15 of the actual top 17 came from his top 17. Only Cox was a bolter.
So if he's in that ballpark again there is about a one in ten chance that a club with a pick around 8/9/10 pick up a player like JVR. In fact it's much more likely on this basis he slides than rises up. Twomeys accuracy after around pick 20 is terrible.