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List Mgmt. 2021 Trade Thread - Part I

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Delisted;
-

Traded;
-

Retired;
Jake Carlisle
Shaun McKernan

Current Players Out of Contract;
3. Zak Jones - Link
6. Sebastian Ross (RFA) - Link
7. Luke Dunstan (RFA) - Link
13. Jack Lonie - Link
15. Jack Billings (RFA) - Link
18. Patrick Ryder - Link
24. James Frawley - Link
25. Dean Kent - Link
38. Oscar Clavarino - Link
39. Darragh Joyce - Link
41. Paul Hunter - Link
42. Max Heath - Link
45. Sam Alabakis - Link


To see the full list (it gets updated regularly) visit this thread;

List & Contract Status

SENIOR LIST 1. Jack Higgins 2. Marcus Windhager 3. Zak Jones 4. Lance Collard 5. Brad Crouch 6. Sebastian Ross 7. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 8. Bradley Hill 9. Jack Steele 10. Mitchito Owens 11. Hunter Clark 12. Max King 13. Ryan Byrnes 14. Liam Stocker 15. Paddy Dow 16. Daniel Butler 17. Isaac...
www.bigfooty.com www.bigfooty.com
 
SaintsSeptember said:
I like having Joyce as backup, much better than having someone with the ability of Joel Tippett there for backup, and there is still a chance he will continue to improve. Jason Blake was not much of a defender at the start of his career, by the end he was damn good at it.
Click to expand...
He did well enough to sit on the list as a backup.
I hope Clav can bring the goods tomorrow too because it will save us a packet if these two can stay on the list and contribute.
 
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ScrappyDo said:
Well the early rhetoric from the club was thas Snaggs would rotate as a mid and Steele would rotate forward and it's really not happened. Ratts seems a bit poor at following through actually.
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I'd say the Higgins midfield time was impacted by Gresh being injured.

It would be such a luxury to rest Gresh forward and give Higgins small bursts in the midfield while that happens.
 
bird_man said:
Goddard was years ago and hasn't been on our list for a long time now. It's like saying we've invested heavily in mids because we took Dunstan. That period is well behind us now.

It was obvious last year Carlisle was on the outside and his body has been an issue for years.

Clav is nearly 4 years in and very lucky to be playing his first game this week. I hope we aren't thinking we don't need to find another key defender because he's the answer.
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You said that we “refuse to invest in a quality key defender” though, even though we invested heavily in them over a 6 year period! More than probably any other team other than Melbourne (May and Lever) and maybe GWS (who have never-ending first rounders to throw around).

And when you do invest in those young ones in the draft you generally need to wait a good 2-3 years to see if they’re likely to make it or not.

And when you only have 1 or 2 picks in the top 40 or so each year it’s not as if you can just keep chucking them at key defenders, when you have so many other positions you need talent in as well.

It’s only 18 months ago that we spent a first rounder on Howard. Once we realised Carlisle was struggling with his back. A top 3 B&F finish would suggest he’s quality.
 
tomjoad said:
Yes, I know what I'm asking for Aussie...I'd like us to get one...or 6. Yep, preferably six. They don't have to be pick one...they can be a rookie, or pick 57 for all I care...they just have to play like and be like a pick one. It can happen...why not us!? 😉
Click to expand...
The draft tends to sort players into a probability of likelihood of career performance. Those taken in the first half dozen seem to have the very best likelihood of a good AFL career. Most of the stars are taken there but the odds are that there are a few star players that dont get drafted until much later.

One way of looking at the probability of selecting a player from the draft is to see how many players you need to select in order to be confident you have a 100 match player:

Pick #1 almost all pick 1's play 100 matches so you could say you would be confident of a 100 match player with that pick
Pick #2 83% of pick 2's play 100 matches so you could say you need two pick 2's to be confident of a 100 match player
Picks 3-5 72% of these play 100 matches so you could say you need two of them to be confident of a 100 match player
Picks 6-10 59% of these play 100 matches so you could say you need two of them to be confident of a 100 match player
Picks 11-20 47% of these play 100 matches so you could say you need three of them to be confident of a 100 match player
Picks 21-30 37% of these play 100 matches so you could say you need three of them to be confident of a 100 match player
Picks 31-50 33% of these play 100 matches so you could say you need three or more of them to be confident of a 100 match player
Picks 51-70 18% of these play 100 matches so you could say you need six of them to be confident of a 100 match player

I could go on but the issue isn't what pick we have so much as how many picks we have at what probability.

100 match players aren't necessarily stars, stars will often play over 200 matches in their career.

61% of picks 1 and 2 will play 200 matches, but it drops off quickly
39% of picks 3-5
26% of picks 6-20
13% of picks 21-50
single digit percentages after pick 50 and through the rookie drafts

Stats from HERE
 
aussierulesrules said:
Dogs are going to be stupidly hard to beat in coming years with that midfield, plus Naughton, English, JUH and Bruce up forward, and yet another high-quality father-son due this year, in Darcy, so we might as well just have some fun watching the King twins in action!
Click to expand...

Naughton - perhaps, although will probably succumb to the lure of a return to his home state.

English - a lot of weeks missed with a knock to the bonce. Another big man ruined by concussion (think Longer, Pierce)

JUH - career looks certain to be ruined by Only Fans infamy with Mia and countless appearances on reality TV.

Bruce - without support ‘ol Brucey simply returns to brucing it up.

Darcy - after years and years of hearing his dad drone on he finally succumbs to mental health issues and checks in to a facility in Switzerland. Heeds experts advice to stay as far away from football as possible.

Suddenly they look a bit light up forward 🤔
 
aussierulesrules said:
You said that we “refuse to invest in a quality key defender” though, even though we invested heavily in them over a 6 year period! More than probably any other team other than Melbourne (May and Lever) and maybe GWS (who have never-ending first rounders to throw around.

And when you do invest in those young ones in the draft you generally need to wait a good 2-3 years to see if they’re likely to make it or not.

And when you only have 1 or 2 picks in the top 40 or so each year it’s not as if you can just keep chucking them at key defenders when you have so many other positions you need talent in as well.

It’s only 18 months ago that we spent a first rounder on Howard. Once we realised Carlisle was struggling with his bank. A top 3 B&F finish would suggest he’s quality.
Click to expand...
Well I'm talking in more recent times than Goddard. As I said, Goddard hasn't been on our list for a long time now and Carlisle has been out of favour or injured for a while now. 2014 was a long time ago.

Yes we split a good pick that got us Howard (that trade was equal to an early 2nd for Howard and Ryder) and spent a very late 2nd round pick on a player that had plenty of question marks.

I understand we haven't had a lot of top 40 picks but that doesn't change the fact that we have very little there. Our club made those choices, they were not forced upon us.

As I've said plenty of times, last year we needed a key defender and a mid in the draft and we took neither, now seems like the year we need to take one. We have Howard (who is a good player but not a great one on one defender) as a long term option and after that there's every possibility none of Frawley, Carlisle, Joyce or Clav will be there in 18 months.
 
stavro#4 said:
I think he got injured in his second pre season and was behind the 8ball and then the achilles.
Click to expand...
Got heat-stroke or whatever and maybe that had a bigger effect on him than anyone realised.

The other thing I’ve always wondered about was whether he put on too much weight too fast.

I have the combine results for his draft and he weighed in at 94kg, but in an article the following preseason he said he was up to 105kg or something, so he put on a ridiculous amount of weight in a very short time, and he seemed to lose all his mobility and speed, as a result.

He did a 2.98sec 20m sprint at that combine- at 94kg- but looked painfully slow from year 2 onwards at AFL level.

*Interestingly, Dougal did a 2.94sec 20m, which is bloody quick for someone his height (same time as D-Mac!), while Roma did a 3.23sec, which was the slowest time anyone did. Petracca and Steele both 3.00, De Goey 3.01.
 
BrutThough said:
I'd say the Higgins midfield time was impacted by Gresh being injured.

It would be such a luxury to rest Gresh forward and give Higgins small bursts in the midfield while that happens.
Click to expand...
Well if the plan was based around Gresh then it was a sh1t plan.
Running with Butts, Lonie and Snaggs means there's ample opportunity for Snaggs to go through the midfield.

Snaggs is actually a pretty good like for like with Gresh, so there's really no reason other than he's been our best scorer and they don't want to shift him.
 
Dr Spaceman said:
May need a couple of pies.

6sBKnoW.jpg
Click to expand...

the living embodiment of ken from toy story
 

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aussierulesrules said:
Got heat-stroke or whatever and maybe that had a bigger effect on him than anyone realised.

The other thing I’ve always wondered about was whether he put on too much weight too fast.

I have the combine results for his draft and he weighed in at 94kg, but in an article the following preseason he said he was up to 105kg or something, so he put on a ridiculous amount of weight in a very short time, and he seemed to lose all his mobility and speed, as a result.

He did a 2.98sec 20m sprint at that combine- at 94kg- but looked painfully slow from year 2 onwards at AFL level.

*Interestingly, Dougal did a 2.94sec 20m, which is bloody quick for someone his height (same time as D-Mac!), while Roma did a 3.23sec, which was the slowest time anyone did. Petracca and Steele both 3.00, De Goey 3.01.
Click to expand...

Its kind of sad and so StKilda , that the Demons picked up McDonald much later in the same draft.
 
gringo2011 said:
I'd say Tom Hawkins was a good or very good forward for a long time but it's probably only in the last 5 years that he really became a dominant forward. He seemed to get to a point where he realised he was huge and started using his size and presence as an advantage. His stats probably don't show that but his mentality shifted at some point and he actually dominated games at some point. He went from being dangerous to being someone you had to plan against to beat Geelong.

I'm hoping Max I more like Mc Kay or one of the forwards who really comes on super quickly. Pre injury Daniher seems to be the most like for like player, both ridiculously tall, both hard to match due to their athleticism and evasiveness etc. Actually just the comparison and they are nearly identical in stats. Spookily so.

Joe Daniher and Max King AFL Stats Comparison

Joe Daniher and Max King AFL Stats Comparison.
www.footywire.com www.footywire.com
Click to expand...
Pretty sure Harry McKay hadn’t kicked five in a match before the Freo game or whatever game it was he kicked seven in. I still remember his run down the ground against the bulldogs two years ago which ended in a point. Lots of potential and now in his fourth full season finally starting to deliver.
 
Kildonan said:
The draft tends to sort players into a probability of likelihood of career performance. Those taken in the first half dozen seem to have the very best likelihood of a good AFL career. Most of the stars are taken there but the odds are that there are a few star players that dont get drafted until much later.

One way of looking at the probability of selecting a player from the draft is to see how many players you need to select in order to be confident you have a 100 match player:

Pick #1 almost all pick 1's play 100 matches so you could say you would be confident of a 100 match player with that pick
Pick #2 83% of pick 2's play 100 matches so you could say you need two pick 2's to be confident of a 100 match player
Picks 3-5 72% of these play 100 matches so you could say you need two of them to be confident of a 100 match player
Picks 6-10 59% of these play 100 matches so you could say you need two of them to be confident of a 100 match player
Picks 11-20 47% of these play 100 matches so you could say you need three of them to be confident of a 100 match player
Picks 21-30 37% of these play 100 matches so you could say you need three of them to be confident of a 100 match player
Picks 31-50 33% of these play 100 matches so you could say you need three or more of them to be confident of a 100 match player
Picks 51-70 18% of these play 100 matches so you could say you need six of them to be confident of a 100 match player

I could go on but the issue isn't what pick we have so much as how many picks we have at what probability.

100 match players aren't necessarily stars, stars will often play over 200 matches in their career.

61% of picks 1 and 2 will play 200 matches, but it drops off quickly
39% of picks 3-5
26% of picks 6-20
13% of picks 21-50
single digit percentages after pick 50 and through the rookie drafts

Stats from HERE
Click to expand...

Jesus...that was in depth. I see now why you have a picture of a wizard for yourself. I'm basically dyslexic with numbers, but due to the amount of them...I begrudgingly believe you.
 
stavro#4 said:
Either Billings is a good player and thus we should be confident he gets offers like one.

Or this board overrates him something chronic and for a lot of people the truth will be coming.

I’m confident he is the first category and potentially a gun in a very good side. But I’m willing to part because I believe it will make us better in the long term. That’s all I care about. We aren’t a contender with the current list build - not far off. But it needs more.

Keen to see anyone else propose a better idea. But I think this is the best path forward.
Click to expand...


Don't get Ben, draft mids, keep JB, find a ben Brown or Bruce style gun forward on the cheap. Maybe Tom Mc Donald or Weed if they want opportunity?
 
gringo2011 said:
Don't get Ben, draft mids, keep JB, find a ben Brown or Bruce style gun forward on the cheap. Maybe Tom Mc Donald or Weed if they want opportunity?
Click to expand...
Either option you have listed would cost a first rounder.

Your second point is completely unrealistic. How many Ben Browns have been found cheaply? I dare say not many.
 
If Billings wants to go, and the offer yields band 1 compo, then you have to let it happen. Can’t afford to spend that kind of money on a singular player when we’re already holding the Hill bags and gave big money to Ming.

If there are genuine mids available at our (likely early) picks then take 2 and wait for 2022 for a pitch at Bing. Gives those mids a year of development before pulling the trigger on a “final piece” type of trade with Bing. Plus gives the chance of a slightly easier trade/discounted price on Bing vs this year, being contracted.
 

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aussierulesrules said:
But surely writing a letter to them would be a far more effective way of doing that than writing the same thing on here over and over and over again? Making this place miserable af in the process.

Or write multiple letters or phone calls to them. Surely you’ll get far more bang for your buck doing it that way.
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Who's miserable? After a loss most people are trying to make sense of it, after a 100 point loss it's getting crazy, multiple huge losses it's pretty seriously the only place for people to debrief no matter how crazily out of whack the responses. At that point there is plenty of people trying to work out what went wrong.

You sound like the kind of guy who comes in to a wake telling people to stop bringing the mood down with their grief. I actually think the posters on here are pretty resilient and ride the rollercoaster of pain and elation that the club puts us though with plenty of humour and relatively little complaint for the lack of success.
 
stavro#4 said:
Either option you have listed would cost a first rounder.

Your second point is completely unrealistic. How many Ben Browns have been found cheaply? I dare say not many.
Click to expand...


Bruce, second in the Coleman was the year before Brown so going at one a year lately. Cameron as a FA went okay too.
 
aussierulesrules said:
Dogs are going to be stupidly hard to beat in coming years with that midfield, plus Naughton, English, JUH and Bruce up forward, and yet another high-quality father-son due this year, in Darcy, so we might as well just have some fun watching the King twins in action!
Click to expand...


That's what they said about GWS and plenty of others. What if the Kings don't reach their ceiling for some reason? I'd love him but seriously the aim should be to build the most competitive list possible for the least amount of time and assets. I just want a seriously cohesive plan not a grab at shiny things. To me King is a great story but it's to hide from the fact that we don't really have a plan or a time line. They are hoping the fans buy memberships to watch a couple of players instead of chasing a premiership list at that point.
 
stavro#4 said:
Either Billings is a good player and thus we should be confident he gets offers like one.

Or this board overrates him something chronic and for a lot of people the truth will be coming.

I’m confident he is the first category and potentially a gun in a very good side. But I’m willing to part because I believe it will make us better in the long term. That’s all I care about. We aren’t a contender with the current list build - not far off. But it needs more.

Keen to see anyone else propose a better idea. But I think this is the best path forward.
Click to expand...

You’re convincing me, especially as we’re not winning a flag next year either.
Wasn’t keen initially, but for band 1 I’d do it I think.
 
Beard of Zeus said:
Would do Billings and a First for Ben all day long!

The fact that Billings is out of contract, in good form and just his FA years is like the stars aligning here. He will do well at another club and will hurt us only a small amount to lose.


Billings out.
Clark to a wing/mid rotation.
Coffield and/or Connolly (hopefully is good) to the back flank where Clark has been. Paton to squeeze into the backline next year too.

We can cover Billings.
We do not have a Ben King!

Imagine the marketability of The Two Kings for 10 years!! I'd lose Billings and a First in an instant. Thank you for the service JB!

On Pixel 4a using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...

We could have for a lot more for both Armo and Stuv if we had let them go a year earlier. This time we’ve just got to take the bull be the horns and do it.
 
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