Analysis 2021 trade thread

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bungalow_bill said:
Wait until the draft and see who is still there at 9 and unlikely to be around at pick 14. An unexpected slider perhaps
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Might not have the necessary picks on draft night to do the deal, Saints may change their mind, Saints might do a deal with another team, etc.

Don't want to overpay like we did with Dev
 
briztoon said:
Was about to say the same.

Really depends on where clubs rate certain prospects.

I’d rate all 3 as top 10 to 12.

But reports are there’s a bit of variance amongst different teams recruiters.
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Indeed. Best not to make the trade pre-draft though. If I were helming the Lions I'd take the picks to the draft and trade up if one of them fell to picks 9/10 before bids.
 

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jackess said:
It would likely involve trading 14 and 18 for 9, but I'd want another early second rounder as well
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I'd definitely want something else as well, and they don't have a second this year. 14 and 18 have slightly more value for them too with less picks being available to be used on Owens (with pick 18 potentially being pick 20, the last pick that could stop them getting Owens).
 
Wander if we can secure Mason Cox… not keen on Casboult at all.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
Herald sun..

Brisbane is weighing up several back-up big man options including ex-Carlton tall Levi Casboult and Collingwood’s Mason Cox to bolster the Lions’ tall stocks.
The Lions are considering the pair as well as contracted Cat Darcy Fort to help replace spearhead Eric Hipwood, who faces a lengthy recovery from a knee reconstruction.

Casboult, 31, was delisted from Carlton but is open to a lifeline up north, while Collingwood is yet to offer Cox, 30, a contract extension as the Magpies look to the future.

Casboult played 13 games for eight goals this year, while Cox managed seven games for eight majors in 2021.

Both players could be used in key forward-ruck roles as part of a genuine crack at a premiership for the Lions next season following a semi-final exit this season.


Geelong’s Fort, 28, is also in the frame, but is tied to the Cats for one more year and would need to be traded in exchange for a draft pick.

The Lions have won only one of their past six finals over the past three seasons and are looking at ways to improve the list despite a tight salary cap.

A priority is to beef up their ruck-key forward stocks but, after prizing Joe Daniher out of Essendon last season, Brisbane won’t be able to land another big fish recruit.

The Lions also have Oscar McInerney and Tom Fullarton, but lost Archie Smith to retirement.

The bulk of AFL clubs are dealing with tight salary caps, which has made securing star players difficult in this year’s exchange period.

Midfielder Lachie Neale is staying at Brisbane despite considering a move to Fremantle, so the Lions expect to be only minor players in the trade period.
 
jackess said:
It use be great doing trades with hindsight

It was a risk and a strange trade but I'm not too disappointed in hindsight. Last year's draft looks pretty average
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I said it was pretty bad at the time, partly because the second round pick we traded in, was right in the range where Blake Coleman was rated. And I explained further why I thought it was a bad trade at the time, and many times after.

There was no hindsight there on my behalf.

I didn’t imagine that Melbourne would be so good, or Collingwood so bad, but I put forth the argument why we would have been better trading for Collingwood’s pick at the time. I definitely said I believed Melbourne would be a top 8 team and Collingwood would implode and miss finals.

But we’ve covered this ground for 11 months now.
 
briztoon said:
I said it was pretty bad at the time, partly because the second round pick we traded in, was right in the range where Blake Coleman was rated. And I explained further why I thought it was a bad trade at the time, and many times after.

There was no hindsight there on my behalf.

I didn’t imagine that Melbourne would be so good, or Collingwood so bad, but I put forth the argument why we would have been better trading for Collingwood’s pick at the time. I definitely said I believed Melbourne would be a top 8 team and Collingwood would implode and miss finals.

But we’ve covered this ground for 11 months now.
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You've had some pretty cooked takes in the past but you were definitely leading the charge against that trade as soon as it happened.

We just completely misjudged the situation, it happens.

At least we didn't trade out pick 2 for nothing.
 
spotthedog1 said:
I'm favouring us not trading out our 2022 first rounder this year.

At present, anyone trading with us will be valuing it around pick 16-18 next year. The pick might be worth more than that (if we fall). The pick cannot be worth less than current value. We take on all the risk, with no upside available to us.

Hold the pick. Next year, we'll know what it's worth. If it's still worth pick 16-18, we aren't any worse off. If we fall, we receive the benefit, not someone else. We can trade the pick during 2022 trade period, or during the draft itself, without a problem.
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There is a counter argument.

We will have to trade the pick at some point.

Either this year or next year, before the draft.

No use waiting until the draft, because when ever the bid comes, we lose some of the bargaining power once the bid is actually made.

If we do trade our future pick on draft night, for a pick in this year’s draft, we’re trading it for a particular player, not a future pick, which we don’t know where that pick eventually falls, or the players available.

We also get two years of development in to a player we draft this year, opposed to the player we might draft in 2023.

Nor have we seen much of the 2023 draft crop, to have much knowledge of what that draft might be like. There was no U16 championships this year.

There were several U17 state matches this year, so recruiters have a good idea what next years draft crop looks like. And we’ve seen full seasons of the SANFL and WAFL Colts. Hence why there’s already discussion about next year’s draft crop looking stronger and deeper.

Potentially trading for a 3rd first round pick this year, puts our list in a better position in two or three years time if we can draft a mid or hbf’er and two KPP’s this year.
 

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briztoon said:
There is a counter argument.

We will have to trade the pick at some point.

Either this year or next year, before the draft.

No use waiting until the draft, because when ever the bid comes, we lose some of the bargaining power once the bid is actually made.

If we do trade our future pick on draft night, for a pick in this year’s draft, we’re trading it for a particular player, not a future pick, which we don’t know where that pick eventually falls, or the players available.

We also get two years of development in to a player we draft this year, opposed to the player we might draft in 2023.

Nor have we seen much of the 2023 draft crop, to have much knowledge of what that draft might be like. There was no U16 championships this year.

There were several U17 state matches this year, so recruiters have a good idea what next years draft crop looks like. And we’ve seen full seasons of the SANFL and WAFL Colts. Hence why there’s already discussion about next year’s draft crop looking stronger and deeper.

Potentially trading for a 3rd first round pick this year, puts our list in a better position in two or three years time if we can draft a mid or hbf’er and two KPP’s this year.
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Are there many players in this years draft that you would trade our future first for?
 
davemc_lions said:
Herald sun..

Brisbane is weighing up several back-up big man options including ex-Carlton tall Levi Casboult and Collingwood’s Mason Cox to bolster the Lions’ tall stocks.
The Lions are considering the pair as well as contracted Cat Darcy Fort to help replace spearhead Eric Hipwood, who faces a lengthy recovery from a knee reconstruction.

Casboult, 31, was delisted from Carlton but is open to a lifeline up north, while Collingwood is yet to offer Cox, 30, a contract extension as the Magpies look to the future.

Casboult played 13 games for eight goals this year, while Cox managed seven games for eight majors in 2021.

Both players could be used in key forward-ruck roles as part of a genuine crack at a premiership for the Lions next season following a semi-final exit this season.


Geelong’s Fort, 28, is also in the frame, but is tied to the Cats for one more year and would need to be traded in exchange for a draft pick.

The Lions have won only one of their past six finals over the past three seasons and are looking at ways to improve the list despite a tight salary cap.

A priority is to beef up their ruck-key forward stocks but, after prizing Joe Daniher out of Essendon last season, Brisbane won’t be able to land another big fish recruit.

The Lions also have Oscar McInerney and Tom Fullarton, but lost Archie Smith to retirement.

The bulk of AFL clubs are dealing with tight salary caps, which has made securing star players difficult in this year’s exchange period.

Midfielder Lachie Neale is staying at Brisbane despite considering a move to Fremantle, so the Lions expect to be only minor players in the trade period.
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I hate reading the trade stories. So much click bait stuff, scenarios I'd tear my hair out over if they eventuate.

I'd be really surprised if we actually try to replace Eric for a year. It's not that I don't like the idea of a replacement in the short term if that was possible. I just don't think a cooked 32 year old Casboult or Mason (when the ball hit's the ground he's as useful as Krusty's superfluous third nipple) Cox offer anything close to like what Eric can.

IMO we're just better off trying to trade to bring in Fort as Big O insurance, and develop what we have already to help mitigate the absence of Hipwood.
 
mattsmob said:
Are there many players in this years draft that you would trade our future first for?
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Depends what the pick is and who is available.

Erasmus, Goater, Sinn, Wanganeen-Milera, Van Rooyen, Bazzo or Wilmot.

If Erasmus, Goater, Sinn and Wanganeen-Milera are all off the board by our first pick, I’d probably just be content to go with JVR and Bazzo at our picks. Maybe trade for Wilmot and hope to get a future 3rd round pick as well (though it doesn’t usually work that way).
 
briztoon said:
There is a counter argument.

We will have to trade the pick at some point.

Either this year or next year, before the draft.

No use waiting until the draft, because when ever the bid comes, we lose some of the bargaining power once the bid is actually made.

If we do trade our future pick on draft night, for a pick in this year’s draft, we’re trading it for a particular player, not a future pick, which we don’t know where that pick eventually falls, or the players available.

We also get two years of development in to a player we draft this year, opposed to the player we might draft in 2023.

Nor have we seen much of the 2023 draft crop, to have much knowledge of what that draft might be like. There was no U16 championships this year.

There were several U17 state matches this year, so recruiters have a good idea what next years draft crop looks like. And we’ve seen full seasons of the SANFL and WAFL Colts. Hence why there’s already discussion about next year’s draft crop looking stronger and deeper.

Potentially trading for a 3rd first round pick this year, puts our list in a better position in two or three years time if we can draft a mid or hbf’er and two KPP’s this year.
Click to expand...

I'd be leaning towards trading out our 2022 first rounder into this years draft for sure. Happy with three top 20 picks, bit of time to develop them. And a lot of variables between now & 2023.
 
Will Ashcroft was the best QLD kid at 15 and 16.

Lions ideally trade a 1st this year someone's first next year for this Father/Son selection.
 
brutus76 said:
Will Ashcroft was the best QLD kid at 15 and 16.

Lions ideally trade a 1st this year someone's first next year for this Father/Son selection.
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While I don't doubt that Will Ashcroft will nominate the Lions, how soon can that happen - is there a time-lime for F/S nominations?
 
T Rick said:
While I don't doubt that Will Ashcroft will nominate the Lions, how soon can that happen - is there a time-lime for F/S nominations?
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Take it to the bank - he will be a Lion.
 
With Ashcroft, Fletcher and potentially McMillan next year I would be surprised if we traded out of our first rounder for next year at this stage. We are going to need points and the way things stand there will not be a lot of list spots available to make up those points. Trading out is likely to cause us issues or at least concerns imo.
 
What’s early mail on Ashcroft ? Is he a potential top 5 pick ? If he was likened to a recent draftee in the last few years who would his game compare with ?
 
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