Analysis 2021 trade thread

[briztoon]

No one has the answer to that.

Modelling is our only way of predicting the future in any academic sense in all spheres from financial to health issues, but has often proved to be wildly inaccurate on occasions

Vaccines aren't going to reduce infections . Mortality hopefully . But it's our only excuse for opening up.

What we don't want to see is another mutation for which no one is prepared.

Surely the Doherty institute has done modelling for NSW or Vic opening up, so the hospitals have an idea what they are in for.

 

[Viceregal]

In most areas of life that'd seem like a silly stance, but when it comes to public safety the stakes are different, because people's individual freedom of choice can place everyone around them at greater risk. So I understand that attitude in this context.

That said, I generally don't think people should be forced to be vaccinated if they don't work in spaces frequented by likely Covid carriers. But the AFL is entitled to put safety first, because one positive case can end up derailing the entire competition for months. It's a business decision at the end of the day.

To assist with the current vaccination campaign ... maybe if we can find something performance enhancing in the injection while still maintaining its legal status it would encourage athletes to use it ... after all athletes have a long history of using other experimental untested drugs to try and gain an edge. If we can show that the potential tactical upside is higher than the risks of whatever long-term side effects might show up when we get to long-term as a carrot rather than the stick of job loss or career curtailment ... we can't use personal fear as none of our players are remotely at risk from the virus and lacking in the dangerous co-morbidities that lead to the deaths and we can't use society per se as we have already demonstrated that we can operate in afl community bubbles - I don't know maybe if we somehow convince them that vaccinated people are the vulnerable ones and in danger from the unvaccinated but no that won't work because we would be trying to convince them to make themselves *more* vulnerable by getting vaccinated ... we have to find a way to make getting vaccinated sound like the strong move for them despite joining the designated victim group (vaccinated) even though all of the punishments are being pointed at the unvaccinated which would normally make them the victims but they don't have an identity as such (they are just standard mark 2018 humans) and are able to be vilified at will which is normally reserved to the groups considered powerful and entrenched but all of the powerful and entrenched aspects of society seem to be joined in doing the vilification - ghah *beats head against wall* not sure how we are going to pull this off.

 

[martinson]

Surely the Doherty institute has done modelling for NSW or Vic opening up, so the hospitals have an idea what they are in for.

Absolutely they have. But it's only modelling.

Obviously the Vic Govt has seen something that's really frightened them. Or maybe they've gone down the same track for so long politically it's too tough to change course. There was something on the ABC News tonight about ambulance wait times extending ,painting a very bleak picture if we have a bigger outbreak and if it's on the ABC News you know where it's come from.

There is a school of thought that WA Health services couldn't cope with the pandemic but the language and bluster coming from out of there makes you think it's all political.

Maybe overall the politicians have NFI and are just flying by the seat of their pants. We haven't had a full on pandemic in the Western world form maybe 100 years.

 

[martinson]

Absolutely they have. But it's only modelling.

Obviously the Vic Govt has seen something that's really frightened them. Or maybe they've gone down the same track for so long politically it's too tough to change course. There was something on the ABC News tonight about ambulance wait times extending ,painting a very bleak picture if we have a bigger outbreak and if it's on the ABC News you know where it's come from.

There is a school of thought that WA Health services couldn't cope with the pandemic but the language and bluster coming from out of there makes you think it's all political.

Maybe overall the politicians have NFI and are just flying by the seat of their pants. We haven't had a full on pandemic in the Western world form maybe 100 years.

The other issue about this pandemic is that every country is affected.

I think the AFL and NRL have done a fantastic job to keep their codes going through this crisis and have obviously navigated the political hurdles brilliantly imo.

I really hope the worst is over but you wouldn't put money on it.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Of course, the benefit we have over the US is our vaccination numbers. We are only 1% behind them now in first doses administered, and we're only just over halfway through the quantity of Australians who are expected to get vaccinated.

We undeniably have vaccine hesitancy here, but it's nowhere near as bad as the US. They have completely stalled at 56% fully vaccinated. The recent poll from the Melbourne Institute would suggest we will hit 80% fully vaccinated relatively easily, and will probably not have too much trouble getting to 90% once things open up and unvaccinated people see the freedoms that are available to them if they choose to get the jab.

At 90% with vaccines that are expected now on the whole to provide long-lasting (perhaps even life-long in some aspects) protection against hospitalisation/severe disease/death, it'll be a totally different case and we probably can move beyond masks for the most part.

Anyway, in relation to what this means for the trade period, I am quite sure all AFL & AFLW players have been told they effectively won't be able to play next year if they aren't vaccinated. Not from the PoV of their clubs or the league, but because of problems travelling between states and mixing inside the club. I think it's a very safe bet that the whole league will be vaccinated by round 1 - I don't think those who would be hesitant will be so steadfast on that to let it cost them their career.

56% will be almost all democrats and a few republicans. The right wing in the States is insane. Apparently those on the left are killing the MAGA heads by urging them to get vaccinated

This right-wing Breitbart writer thinks Democrats use ‘reverse psychology’ to kill Trump voters

John Nolte claims that Dr Fauci, Howard Stern, and Nancy Pelosi are conspiring to kill off Trump supporters

www.salon.com

 

[archangel1979au]

So any trade news or have we traded in Covid?

 

[martinson]

So any trade news or have we traded in Covid?

No way.

He's our secret weapon. No one goes near him.

 

[davemc_lions]

man I think I am on the COVID thread

From all reports once double vaxed your 1/500 chance to still get it. You will spread less although you will still spread
Once you open up it will spread. Those double vaxed people will spread it as they do not know they have it unless people test.

Even at 90% 12+ there be 2.1 mill unvaxed 12+
QLD 438k, NSW 695k, Vic 580k, SA 154k and WA 123k
NSW currently has 10,000 active cases of those 1k in hospital 10% roughly
If 5% of the unvaxed at 90% get it thats 100k and 10k in hospital
That is not taking account the kids around 4 mill

Back to footy.. Really hope Hipwood is back after the bye
Although I do think we need someone to help out Oscar more than Fullarton.
Fort not be a bad pick be around for 3-4 years fill in the gap for Lane to come on.

 

[BrizzyBandit]

Can we cut the Covid crap. Start a thread if you want it. This is a trade thread.

Man I come in here for a bit of escapism.

 

[Clarkythelion]

Bit of rumours about Max Lynch, 200cm Collingwood yet to be given a contract offer. Hard for him to get a regular spot at the Pies with Grundy, Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox in front of him. Watched his debut against us last year and thought he rucked well. Showed a bit this year against Melbourne, Grundy was sidelined with a neck injury. Took his opportunity and rucked and position well, beating Gawn's with 23 hit-outs to 20...

I suggested him last year as a Steph type fill in - got the same reaction as it has this year. I thought him and Big O would be ok together

 

[Clarkythelion]

On the anti-laxer thing. (I'm all for choice, we need anti vaxers as a control group) Queensland football has some experience with footballers that have outspoken anti-vaxer partners, although in the NRL with the Gold Coast. It's more about team, club and competition harmony. As it stands each state is running their own race with their own strategies to suit their hospital capacities and we will still see travelling sports teams 'hubbing' for some time. Outspoken anti-vaxers, right or wrong, don't add to team harmony.

NRL star Bryce Cartwright SPLITS from his anti-vaxxer wife Shanelle

NRL star Bryce Cartwright and his outspoken anti-vaxxer wife Shanelle have split. Cartwright's manager Allan Gainey confirmed the news, before declaring it was a personal matter.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[dlanod]

No one has the answer to that.

Modelling is our only way of predicting the future in any academic sense in all spheres from financial to health issues, but has often proved to be wildly inaccurate on occasions

Vaccines aren't going to reduce infections . Mortality hopefully . But it's our only excuse for opening up.

What we don't want to see is another mutation for which no one is prepared.

Exactly. Modelling is only as good as your input assumptions, and we have ok but not perfect assumptions for the impact on vaccinations on spread and new data is constantly coming out.

Vaccines will reduce infections - you have a lower chance to catch it (though definitely not zero), you're infectious for less, and you're much much less likely to get sick (at all), severely sick, or die. Hell, we're seeing that in NSW right now. However I think you meant that over your lifetime, chances are you will still get COVID at some point? If so, you're probably right simply because it will continue to spread more like the flu or a cold at that point once people have their vaccinations.

And yes, no more mutations plz.

 

[Flea_29]

I'm interested to hear from the draft experts on our board about the difference between the type of player we could get at
- pick 2/3
- picks 6-9
- picks 14 & 18

I do like Goater and Ward from what I have seem (limited) and heard. There is talk that apart from Daicos, Darcy and Horne-Francis, the next best is Callaghan and then it seems to even out.

So
Should we trade up to pick 2/3 to ensure we get Callaghan?
Should we trade up to picks 6-9 to get one of Goater or Ward?
Or should we just hold our 2 first rounders and get two quality players - but the outcome is really out of our hands?

 

[Nuggo]

I'm interested to hear from the draft experts on our board about the difference between the type of player we could get at
- pick 2/3
- picks 6-9
- picks 14 & 18

I do like Goater and Ward from what I have seem (limited) and heard. There is talk that apart from Daicos, Darcy and Horne-Francis, the next best is Callaghan and then it seems to even out.

So
Should we trade up to pick 2/3 to ensure we get Callaghan?
Should we trade up to picks 6-9 to get one of Goater or Ward?
Or should we just hold our 2 first rounders and get two quality players - but the outcome is really out of our hands?

Not sure if we have the capital in hand to get to pick 2/3. I am assuming clubs have a general feel for who each rate by the time the draft comes around so there may not be a need to trade up. Perhaps it is something that might happen on draft day if a slider happens that we really rate.

 

[ForzaRoma]

Anyone think it's time for a mini rebuild? What we're doing isn't enough to win a flag, so why not accept that and try and extend our premiership window? Rumours suggest Neale could go back to Perth, so why not facilitate that while his currency is strong? With the picks we can get from him, we can upgrade on this year's draft order while still trading in for a future first so we can secure Fletcher and Ashcroft for next year. I like Neale and I was as distraught as everyone else when I heard these rumours, but look at our how we played without him this year. He's easily our best player, but we can play just as good without him as we can with him. Neale going would also open Starce and Rayner into the midfield, while answerth can take Starce's old role. Birchall going allows for Madden and Coleman to gain more senior games as well. These subtle changes coupled with the possibility of Roberson and Prior gaining more games could actually set us up for a better premiership tilt in the future.

 

[spotthedog1]

Anyone think it's time for a mini rebuild? What we're doing isn't enough to win a flag, so why not accept that and try and extend our premiership window? Rumours suggest Neale could go back to Perth, so why not facilitate that while his currency is strong? With the picks we can get from him, we can upgrade on this year's draft order while still trading in for a future first so we can secure Fletcher and Ashcroft for next year. I like Neale and I was as distraught as everyone else when I heard these rumours, but look at our how we played without him this year. He's easily our best player, but we can play just as good without him as we can with him. Neale going would also open Starce and Rayner into the midfield, while answerth can take Starce's old role. Birchall going allows for Madden and Coleman to gain more senior games as well. These subtle changes coupled with the possibility of Roberson and Prior gaining more games could actually set us up for a better premiership tilt in the future.

No.

You're confusing "this list hasn't won a premiership yet" with "this team won't win a premiership". We are on the way up, not the way down.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Anyone think it's time for a mini rebuild? What we're doing isn't enough to win a flag, so why not accept that and try and extend our premiership window?

I reject your whole premise, and therefore didn’t read the rest. Waste of time.

You would have been absolutely throwing your toys out of the cot one third of the way into the 2001 season.

 

[RoyBoy17]

Anyone think it's time for a mini rebuild? What we're doing isn't enough to win a flag, so why not accept that and try and extend our premiership window? Rumours suggest Neale could go back to Perth, so why not facilitate that while his currency is strong? With the picks we can get from him, we can upgrade on this year's draft order while still trading in for a future first so we can secure Fletcher and Ashcroft for next year. I like Neale and I was as distraught as everyone else when I heard these rumours, but look at our how we played without him this year. He's easily our best player, but we can play just as good without him as we can with him. Neale going would also open Starce and Rayner into the midfield, while answerth can take Starce's old role. Birchall going allows for Madden and Coleman to gain more senior games as well. These subtle changes coupled with the possibility of Roberson and Prior gaining more games could actually set us up for a better premiership tilt in the future.

We definitely need to hit the draft over the next couple of years. And most importantly get it right. If Neale was to request a trade then that would have hurt short term but potentially set us up medium and long term. But as it stands he is staying and we are still in our premiership window. The league is so even yet I don't think their is any team that scares me next year. Need to go full throttle for a premiership now whilst we know what we've got. I think we are only one or two players away from winning it. We probably gave Melbourne their toughest game in the finals and we didn't even fire a shot all night and had McStay go down. We need a second ruck and half backs that can defend yet provide drive which may come from prior, Coleman, madden, answerth etc. We were far too slow at the back this year.

 

[bungalow_bill]

If only the Tigers had a mini rebuild after the 2016 finals. Think of the draft picks they could have got for Cotchin or Martin.

 

[blueiris]

Thoughts on Jordan Sweet could be a cheap young ruckman option for the Lions

 

[Clarkythelion]

Anyone think it's time for a mini rebuild? What we're doing isn't enough to win a flag, so why not accept that and try and extend our premiership window? Rumours suggest Neale could go back to Perth, so why not facilitate that while his currency is strong? With the picks we can get from him, we can upgrade on this year's draft order while still trading in for a future first so we can secure Fletcher and Ashcroft for next year. I like Neale and I was as distraught as everyone else when I heard these rumours, but look at our how we played without him this year. He's easily our best player, but we can play just as good without him as we can with him. Neale going would also open Starce and Rayner into the midfield, while answerth can take Starce's old role. Birchall going allows for Madden and Coleman to gain more senior games as well. These subtle changes coupled with the possibility of Roberson and Prior gaining more games could actually set us up for a better premiership tilt in the future.

I think to win a Grand final you have to have some luck and pretty much a complete healthy list. We had Hipwood and Rayner out then McStay and Payne were injured early in finals. With those 4 playing, fully fit in the finals we are a different side. I like Fullerton but say compared to Jackson at Melbourne he has some work to do. A fully fit team and some tweaks or another year of development in the Rucks and we can win it. I don't thin a re-build or even a mini-rebuild is needed.

 

[JasRulz63]

Thoughts on Jordan Sweet could be a cheap young ruckman option for the Lions

Issue will be convincing him to come to the same position he's in currently at the Dogs. Will still probably be a back-up like he is at the Dogs.

 

[Clarkythelion]

If only the Tigers had a mini rebuild after the 2016 finals. Think of the draft picks they could have got for Cotchin or Martin.

I guess it's about choice.

Supposedly after our first 2 Grand Finals Leigh Matthews presented to the Board and asked them to choose Glory or Sustained Success. He was saying the team was at the crossroads, they could start refreshing or he could hold them together and they could possibly with 3 or 4 premierships but it may mean loosing some young talent coming through. The board supposedly choose Glory - we played in 4 and lost some young players and the had that horrible period of trying to re-build in continually compromised drafts. Maybe Richmond had that same decision to make, one might argue they chose Glory also and kept too many ageing stars until the cliff came all too fast and they plunged. One could also argue under one of the Lions who played through those time Geelong also chose Glory and their cliff would seem to be racing towards them as well.

 

[Mighty Lions]

Guesswork like most posters.

Still interested in why anyone would guess that he was not going to play in 2022. His guess must have had some sort of reasoning behind it....maybe.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Thoughts on Jordan Sweet could be a cheap young ruckman option for the Lions

The problem with pursuing anyone from a Victorian club is that other Victorian clubs might be interested too, and if similar deals are offered, most players will pick the option that doesn't require them and their family to move. We can only overcome that if the player really wants to move to Queensland specifically, really wants to get out of the limelight, or we offer the most money. And we're not going to offer the most money given our cap situation. Fort at least seems to want to move to Queensland specifically. I haven't heard anything to suggest Sweet does.