List Mgmt. 2021 Young Talent Time

[Bastyy]

Arthur Jones being up there in the 2km time trail is interesting.

Combining his pace and elusiveness with a decent tank is a nice combo. I'm presuming his kicking is only average or he'd surely be rated a lot higher?

He's a pretty raw prospect and he's probably a bit too light and small at this point in time, as well as being pretty inconsistent with ball in hand

I reckon he'll end up as a late pick or a rookie pick but if I'm given a pick in the 50+ area I'm probably taking him

 

[freodog]

Would anyone be upset if they took Erasmus at 6 & NWM at 8

then Williams or cripps with 19? (I think they will trade back to get a future 2nd)

I think crows might take Rachele

I would be devastated if we didn't come away with either Amiss or JVR

 

[GingerDocker]

He's a pretty raw prospect and he's probably a bit too light and small at this point in time, as well as being pretty inconsistent with ball in hand

I reckon he'll end up as a late pick or a rookie pick but if I'm given a pick in the 50+ area I'm probably taking him

Worth it just for the WC NGA-* up melts we could watch.

 

[malpaso]

So it appears that we will have a big decision because of Richmond being in between our picks and needing a KPF.

IF Mac Andrew is still there at our first pick, what do we do??

I think we have to take Amiss (don't care about the 50 kicking) he appears to be a smart KPF with a great set shot.

Will Richmond ignore Erasmus and take Andrew/JVR ??

 

[Raw e Lobbster]

So it appears that we will have a big decision because of Richmond being in between our picks and needing a KPF.

IF Mac Andrew is still there at our first pick, what do we do??

I think we have to take Amiss (don't care about the 50 kicking) he appears to be a smart KPF with a great set shot.

Will Richmond ignore Erasmus and take Andrew/JVR ??

I think having Darcy and Andrew rotating as ruck/forward appeals most imo.
2 very different players to have opposition plan for also.
Erasmus/Johnson/Rachelle pick 8 (10)

 

[Polo342]

Dream draft Mac Andrew and Jye Amiss?

 

[Big Animal]

think GWS' lack of much interest in Lobb (didn't even bother suggesting even an unrealistic offer) says to me they won't need a ruck forward after they draft Andrew. Expect he won't be on the board for us anyway as predicted by most.

 

[Vimal Anand]

So it appears that we will have a big decision because of Richmond being in between our picks and needing a KPF.

IF Mac Andrew is still there at our first pick, what do we do??

I think we have to take Amiss (don't care about the 50 kicking) he appears to be a smart KPF with a great set shot.

Will Richmond ignore Erasmus and take Andrew/JVR ??

They will take Mac Andrew.. with the amount of tall they lost.. then we take Erasmus...

On SM-A205YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Taylor]

The old Brayshaw first because he won't get past North trick

 

[Paracleet]

They will take Mac Andrew.. with the amount of tall they lost.. then we take Erasmus...

On SM-A205YN using BigFooty.com mobile app

There is a ton of evidence that with first round picks, particularly the top 12 or 14 or so, that clubs virtually never pick a player based on positional needs (as a primary criteria at least) and always take the best available. Yet people still act as if it were not true and talk about who clubs are going to bypass on that basis.

Posters might have personal opinion on if that is right or wrong, but that won't change what they are going to do.

 

[mr robot]

There is a ton of evidence that with first round picks, particularly the top 12 or 14 or so, that clubs virtually never pick a player based on positional needs (as a primary criteria at least) and always take the best available. Yet people still act as if it were not true and talk about who clubs are going to bypass on that basis.

Posters might have personal opinion on if that is right or wrong, but that won't change what they are going to do.

You don't think their midfield is strong enough to plug holes in other positions at the draft? Their captain can't even get a run in there.

For what it's worth I agree with you but GWS could be an exception.

 

[Paracleet]

You don't think their midfield is strong enough to plug holes in other positions at the draft? Their captain can't even get a run in there.

For what it's worth I agree with you but GWS could be an exception.

There have been exceptions, or it wouldn't be a rule. Both GWS and Gold Coast have done it in the past. All the high picks they have had change the metrics. Thinking off hand the only other club to do so recently is Adelaide, who have had abundant cause to regret it in my view.

As for this season I think GWS will still have BA as Callahan is a genuine winger as well inside mid.

I'm not a very gifted writer (or concise) so I probably won't get this across well the but concept of best available is not absolutely fixed. A clubs draft list would revolve around groupings of players and be scaled by leadership qualities, flight risk and positional needs. So you get moved up and down the list a bit based on these features but it's only a minimal amount of spots, and it won't move you from one group to another. The overriding driver is by ranking talent as a function of likelihood of succeeding (I.E. not just talent but how likely you are to fully express it. If it was just talent then Dayle Garlett would have gone pick 1)

Where the situation can change is if you have a stack of depth at a club in a one position that is elite and still young, that might cause you as a recruiter to entertain the idea of breaking the rules so to speak. So let's say hypothetically this year after HF and the two father sons the next best three players in the pool on GWS's list were all pure inside mids, and the a bit of gap to a player like Andrew. Well under those circumstances they might take the player like Andrew. But it's not that simple because a player like him is a high ceiling but low floor prospect. Would you reach past a grouping you rated higher for a player you already believe can't reach the same heights as the ones you're bypassing? This is where it probably differs from club to club, what to do when the situation is unclear based on competing factors.

 

[Walkingwounded]

RESULTS (TOP 3)

20m sprint:
T. Woewodin - 2.89 sec
L. Polson - 2.9 sec
N. Pegoraro - 2.92 sec

Agility:
B. Watson - 8.00 sec
M. Johnson - 8.061 sec
J. Motlop - 8.063 sec

2km TT:
C.Warner - 6.20 min
A. Jones - 6.30 min
M. Johnson - 6.39 min
B. Watson - 6.39 min

Standing:
C. Warner - 76cm
N. Pegoraro - 75cm
L. Paton - 73cm

Running R:
C. Warner - 100cm
J. Stretch - 88cm
R. Farmer - 84cm

Running L:
J. Stretch - 93cm
C. Warner - 92cm
N. Pegoraro - 92cm

 

[Big Animal]

There is a ton of evidence that with first round picks, particularly the top 12 or 14 or so, that clubs virtually never pick a player based on positional needs (as a primary criteria at least) and always take the best available. Yet people still act as if it were not true and talk about who clubs are going to bypass on that basis.

Posters might have personal opinion on if that is right or wrong, but that won't change what they are going to do.

Because best available only ever means best guesstimate. You can look back on EVERY SINGLE draft and say with 100% hindsight that the players weren't picked in order from best to least yet people still believe that the term best available actually means something.

I like Griffin Logue (more than many on here) but we took him at 8 and then Sean Darcy at 38 and Cox at 41. Rerun the 2016 draft again in hindsight and no one is picking those three in that order. Or SPS at 6, or Will Brodie at 9.

I just laugh when I hear best available now. With only a few exceptions the draft's largely a lottery. As a club you do your best research, you work out who you want and you take who of those is left at your pick and then you tell everyone that they were "best available" and you were stoked that they slid to your pick.

 

[Taylor]

Important to remember that there are at least 18 best available lists each year and they will all be different.

 

[wayToGo_]

There is combine footage of Motlop, Johnson, JVR and Williams up on afl.com.au

 

[Scham]

As a club you do your best research, you work out who you want and you take who of those is left at your pick.

You've nailed the description of best available right there. That's exactly how it works and what it is.

 

[Square Peg]

RESULTS (TOP 3)

Running R:
C. Warner - 100cm
J. Stretch - 88cm
R. Farmer - 84cm

That is some gap between Warner and the rest!

 

[FUS_RO_DAH]

The highlights of NWM give me huge Michael Johnson

Michael Johnson

Age

39

Ht

195cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.0

4star

K

11.0

4star

HB

6.1

4star

M

5.9

5star

T

1.7

4star

MG

260.5

4star

No current season stats available

D

7.6

2star

K

4.8

2star

HB

2.8

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

1.6

4star

vibes... I like. A lot.

 

[Alfonz]

RESULTS (TOP 3)

20m sprint:
T. Woewodin - 2.89 sec
L. Polson - 2.9 sec
N. Pegoraro - 2.92 sec

Agility:
B. Watson - 8.00 sec
M. Johnson - 8.061 sec
J. Motlop - 8.063 sec

2km TT:
C.Warner - 6.20 min
A. Jones - 6.30 min
M. Johnson - 6.39 min
B. Watson - 6.39 min

Standing:
C. Warner - 76cm
N. Pegoraro - 75cm
L. Paton - 73cm

Running R:
C. Warner - 100cm
J. Stretch - 88cm
R. Farmer - 84cm

Running L:
J. Stretch - 93cm
C. Warner - 92cm
N. Pegoraro - 92cm

Anything more than just the top 3's? Would like to see Motlop's sprint time. He didn't look particularly quick nor agile when playing for South league, but playing a league finals campaign would have been tough. I don't know what to make of the agility test because often the results don't seem to mesh with what you see with your eyes when watching them play. For example, Hayden Young scored a 7.94 and Rankine a 8.039 (both 1st in their years), but Rankine would seem light years ahead of Young for agility on the field.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

No I thought most people think of Chapman as an inside mid in the mould of Mundy.

I dream of him growing to 6 feet 9 and being a ruck/forward

 

[Walkingwounded]

There is combine footage of Motlop, Johnson, JVR and Williams up on afl.com.au

Johnson’s combine results are impressive. He’s gone up on my list based on those results.

Smooth mover with great kicking, with combine showing another side.

 

[Taylor]

Do you think there is a height a player could get to where their speed and agility no longer matters at all?

I have often wondered how effective a 2.5m player could be as a marking target and immovable object.

 

[nurries]

That is some gap between Warner and the rest!

If he is like Chad, he will be a powerful bugger

 

[wayToGo_]

Say this every year but I think you learn more from the worst results than you do from the best results when it comes to combines.

The top of the combine list each year is often a who's who of future footy failures (there are exceptions of course). Because there are plenty of athletes without the required footy IQ/talent to make it at AFL.