Preview 2022 Records vs Top 8

[philohk]

Hey everyone, thought I'd do the annual records vs top 8 to see whether it throws up anything interesting. Last year for reference.

First, top 8 vs top 8:


(Note it ranks by points, then fewer games played, then %.)

Some thoughts:

• The fewest possible number of games against teams in the 8 is 7 - nice for the Tigers. The most is 16, which nobody is near. In 2021, it was more evenly distributed - a few with 8, a few 9 and a few 10.
• So we have 0 double-ups for Richmond, 1 for 5 other clubs, 3 for the Bulldogs and 4 for Melbourne, who might be a bit beaten up or might be better for the run.
• Melbourne was the clear ladder leader last year. It's less clear-cut this year.
• The Swans had the second-best record last year but were eliminated in the first week.
• The Bulldogs were also in the negative last year (4-5) but won through to the GF.
• Geelong had 2 comfortable wins and 1 comfortable loss - their other 5 games were decided by a couple of kicks.
• Melbourne's seemingly healthy percentage is courtesy of two big wins against Brisbane - against all other sides in the 8 it's below 100.

So using this for finals tips would get you the following:
Week 1
Geelong defeats Collingwood
Sydney defeats Melbourne
Fremantle defeats Bulldogs
Richmond defeats Brisbane

Week 2
Melbourne defeats Richmond
Fremantle defeats Collingwood

Week 3
Geelong defeats Melbourne
Sydney defeats Fremantle

Grand Final
Sydney defeats Geelong, BigFooty implodes

Last year, it tipped 5/9, with a couple of borderline results.

Now for the whole ladder vs top 8:



On this one:

• I started doing this in 2019. Last year was the first time in that period that every team had taken premiership points off a team in the 8. This year we revert to type, with GWS an ignominious 0-12. Though special mention to the Eagles, whose loss against Geelong this weekend dipped their percentage below 50.
• Like last year, this is off the top 8 by one team and it has a familiar ring - Carlton in, Dogs out. But otherwise the teams are grouped quite similarly to the real ladder, which they weren't last year, perhaps because of the COVID arrangements.
• But an honourable mention to Gold Coast. Perhaps this is a sign of better things to come.
• If the Tigers got lucky with only 7 games, spare a thought for St Kilda, GWS and Essendon, whose struggles were amplified by their draws.