2022 Victorian State Election-November 26
- Thread starter Jascave
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Because there is certain parts of the Liberal Party that associate the 90 seat win at the 2013 Federal election as confirmation that when they stand for something with conservative policies, they win over the voters.
But as you noted, the voters quickly abandon that. And this is where the LNP and I differ on what conclusions to draw from the 2016 election.
Home Alone is closer to the pin on analysis here than Jascave.
Firstly, the Abbott function was organised by a branch, not HQ.
Secondly, there certainly is an element of "2013 was the last time we stood for something" in the party. What we stood for primarily that won us the election was not being Rudd/Gillard/Rudd, a government so politically inept it doesn't bear thinking about.
2010 is the better goal for the Victorian Liberals, but the events of 2010-2014 colour that thinking in many circles in the party (as if the quiet budget repair of Baillieu is somehow inferior to the failed budget repair of Abbott and Hockey).
There was a time in Victoria where mere competitiveness and regular success energised the Liberal base. Now not so much.
Firstly, the Abbott function was organised by a branch, not HQ.
Secondly, there certainly is an element of "2013 was the last time we stood for something" in the party. What we stood for primarily that won us the election was not being Rudd/Gillard/Rudd, a government so politically inept it doesn't bear thinking about.
2010 is the better goal for the Victorian Liberals, but the events of 2010-2014 colour that thinking in many circles in the party (as if the quiet budget repair of Baillieu is somehow inferior to the failed budget repair of Abbott and Hockey).
There was a time in Victoria where mere competitiveness and regular success energised the Liberal base. Now not so much.
They are clueless.
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- #705
And also stuck in the past. They haven't got anyone within the Liberal Party network who could make life difficult or tougher for Daniel Andrews in the lead-up to the next election.
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- #706
I wonder if Peter Costello and Michael Kroger falling out over Costello's aborted political comeback to federal politics, with Kroger tipping a bucket on Costello during his interviews with the ABC's Jon Faine & 3AW's Neil Mitchell several years ago might've done more long term damage to the Victorian Liberals than first thought?
Yep- amazingly bereft of talent also- hard to fathom how they got this weak.
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- #708
In hindsight, would it be fair to say losing the 2014 state election had far-reaching ramifications for the Victorian branch of the Liberal Party compared to 2018 'Danslide' disaster?
Possibly. If that election lose gave any momentum into Kroger/Bastiaan appointment and their recruiting of the Christian Right then you could drew that conclusion. I realise that both are gone, however the Christian Right still remain resulting in several current Lib members and nominated candidates.
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- #710
Also, could the falling out several years ago between Victorian Liberal heavyweights Michael Kroger and Peter Costello over Costello's attempt to make a political comeback for the federal seat of Higgins, which led to Kroger tipping the bucket on his former federal ally in two radio interviews with the ABC's Jon Faine and 3AW's Neil Mitchell be another reason why the Victorian Coalition are struggling to regain prominence in Victorian state politics?
Not for me. That has long been forgotten (actually I don't even remember it. There was something about Kroger lobbying Costello about his first wife position on a senate ticket).
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- #712
What happened was that Peter Costello wanted the then rising star of the Liberal Party, Josh Frydenberg to step aside for him in the federal seat of Higgins. Michael Kroger went on two morning radio shows, Jon Faine on the ABC and then Neil Mitchell on 3AW to tip the bucket on Costello and also claimed that the Costello/Kroger partnership had come to an end. Kroger also didn't like Costello being very critical of prominent Liberals like John Howard, the late Andrew Peacock, John Hewson, Malcolm Turnbull, Alexander Downer and Tony Abbott.
And that is enough for one of them (or someone else) reason to gut and destroy the party for the next 10+ years? That is a 'bridge too far' for me to accept. (not disputing the Kroger and Costello relationship has fractured).
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- #714
The Sky News Victorian Election Night coverage will be fun to watch, especially if Daniel Andrews (as expected) emerge victorious. Expect the panel members like Paul Murray, Peta Credlin, Sophie Elsworth to go ranting about 'the end of Victoria as we know it', 'be prepared for more lockdowns,' 'this is all Malcolm Turnbull's fault' etc.
Sounds like a positive move and miraculously the Libs agreed rather than just say no.'The Victorian government will pay for the degrees of more than 10,000 nursing and midwifery students as part of a $270 million initiative to help boost staffing across the state’s strained health system.
Under the program, next year and in 2024 all new domestic students entering nursing courses in Victoria will receive a scholarship of $16,500 to cover the cost of the degree. The opposition will support the policy, which the government will put in place immediately, before November’s state election.'
‘We will pay their entire HECS debt’: Free uni degrees for Victorian nurses, midwives
The state government is offering to pay for the degrees of more than 10,000 nursing and midwifery students as part of a $270 million initiative. The opposition says it will match the pledge.www.theage.com.au
crankyhawk what do think ? Window dressing in that it ignores its a today problem.
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- #716
If only the Victorian Liberals were more bipartisan with the government in the early days and months of the pandemic, realising the gravity of the situation instead of being negative all the way through. Not once did they give any support or backing to the Chief Health Officer, Brett Sutton, or the Victorian health team.
Its the small target strategy - see Albo & the decision to support the stage 3 tax cuts.
The things politicians do to win elections.
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- #718
You know the Victorian Liberals is in serious trouble when the Herald Sun-once a long time ally of the Coalition in Victoria-takes a mighty swipe at Matthew Guy and his leadership. The Herald Sun reckoned Guy could've gone a lot harder on Tim Smith and his near-fatal car crash last November, by kicking Smith out of the party altogether instead of allowing him to stay on in the parliamentry wing but as a backbencher. Tim Smith is now Guy's worst nightmare. And Daniel Andrews thinks all his Christmases has come at once.
Seems Dan isnt as enamoured with Brett Sutton. More material for the LNP campaign advertising:
'Now a new book by The Age’s chief reporter Chip Le Grand called Lockdown gives some context to Sutton’s media vanishing act, claiming there was a seminal event that resulted in Sutton being put in Andrews’s proverbial “freezer”.
Le Grand claims Andrews was furious that on June 30, 2020, Sutton had widely distributed a report that traced nearly every Covid case in Victoria to the infamous hotel quarantine outbreak.
The report plunged the Victorian government into its most serious crisis since coming to power, and the book notes the Premier was “furious”.
Andrews’ anger about Sutton’s wide circulation of the report became evident at a press conference later that day, attended by both the Premier and his chief health officer.
Le Grand introduces readers to Andrews’ “freezer”, a form of public purgatory Sutton was forced to endure: “Throughout the press conference, the pair crossed paths several times on their way to and from the microphone, and Andrews did not look at Sutton once. ‘Dan was so furious with him he did not even glance at him,’ an insider says. This was Professor Sutton’s introduction to “the freezer”, the cold, lonely place where Andrews puts people who disappoint
him, cross him or otherwise let him down.” '
Imagine IF the Coroner finalised the inquiry into St Basils, more specifically Mr Suttons role, before the election. This issue was aired in December 2021.
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- #720
When was the last time Daniel Andrews and Brett Sutton appeared in a press conference together? If the Coalition, by some divine miracle, wins the state election on November 26, wonder how Sutton would work alongside the new Premier Matthew Guy and his Health Minister, Georgie Crozier?
Sutton is just another public servant, however Sutton/Andrews are inseparable in reminding people of the lockdown that should be central to a campaign looking for an anti Dan vote.
He’d step down or be replaced, surely?
TheArchitect
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Ian Cook any chance to de-throne Dan?
Upgrayedd
A Vote for Clive is a Vote for Justice
Only chance is giving Dan Listerisa
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- #725
Not a chance. Daniel Andrews holds his seat of Mulgrave with a swing of 15.8%. If Cook wants a seat in parliament as an independent, he'd be better off going for the seat of Caulfield, which has a swing of 0.2%.
