2023 - A year of regression before the final ascent...

[FDH16]

With the trade period done and dusted it's time to reflect on where the list sits, what we were seeking to achieve and how close we are to the ever elusive maiden premiership.

I am pleased Fremantle's hierarchy identified the need to bolster the inside mid brigade, Brodie was a pleasant surprise in 2022 and will continue to build in 2023. What became more and more glaring as the year rolled on was our over reliance on Mundy to win inside ball and drive field position. Acquiring JOM will alleviate the burden on Serong/Brodie and allow Fyfe the flexibility to roll forward. With Raz and Johnson still needing a few pre-seasons to be AFL ready, when it counts, this was a pleasing acquisition.

The greatest upside of this trade is we no longer need to run Andy Brayshaw from the centre square. He just isn't capable of being a force in there and held us back, on occassion, in the two finals this year. He is much better suited as an outside runner and will be an upgrade on Acres on the wing. This is Andy's best position and will allow him to blow up his opponent, hold his width and deliver the ball inside 50.

Jackson, will improve our dynamicism from the centre-square, he is capable of roving his own tap and pushing through traffic. Too often we exited laterally, slowly and allowed opposition defenses to roll with our ball movement. Hopefully Jaeger can burst from stoppage as well. The removal of Brayshaw from the starting CB team will show up the more JOM/FYFE, Serong, Brodie with Jackson and Darcy find their groove. Corbett might be a nice guy, but he's largely irrelevant and cover - whole lot of meh on his acquisition, hopefully he proves me wrong, though, I am never wrong.

One of the unfortunate realities of a high attrition rate is the requirement to re-train running patterns, stoppage set ups and internal chemistry. We have shipped out/retired 4 genuine starters, 2 consistent rotational players, and will now inject a two starters.

Amiss is the key to our progression, he along with the emergence of another key forward (my great hope for Jackson) will decide if we mount the summit, but it will not be in 23.

The type of synergy that is necessary intra team is not concocted over-night, one may pre-season will not be enough. This group will need to gel and bond, on field and off.

For me, whilst we may have lost our leading goal-kicker campaigner lord, a top 10 B&F player, an AA calibre winger and fuzzy haired swing man, I've never been more bullish on the state of our list, whilst cautiously aware that synergy takes time to create.

We are almost there.

 

[Electronic_Renaissance]

Interesting take and I can see your points.

I don't think 2023 will be a year of regression, I think stagnation at worst.

I think 2022 exceeded most peoples expectations and I don't think we have lost anyone that can not be replaced by the youth we already have.

Yeah, we got Jackson, Corbett and O'meara. But I am also excited with what Amiss, Erasmus and Johnson can provide in 2023.

 

[Wilksyy]

I think it will be 1 step back 2 steps forward.

Our group of 20 - 23 year olds in Brayshaw, Serong, Amiss, Jackson, Nod, Young, Walker, Treacy, Darcy, Johnson, Erasmus, Frederick....

 

[Purple Jesus]

I don’t even think we’ll stagnate to be honest. Once you’re in top 4 territory anything can happen.

 

[88mph]

My only concern is the loss of Lobb.

Who will kick 30+ goals this year in his place?

 

[332docker]

My only concern is the loss of Lobb.

Who will kick 30+ goals this year in his place?

Treacy!

 

[greatgatsby]

We will enter 2023 with a better list than we entered 2022, so I see no reason for regression. I do think, however, that we can expect to better what we do in 2023 in 2024. In my view, there is (good) pressure on the coaches to improve our game plan and forward system so we can ... kick more goals!

 

[greatgatsby]

My only concern is the loss of Lobb.

Who will kick 30+ goals this year in his place?

The first step is to replace Lobb (and Logue when he was there) with lead-up and natural forwards. We'll get more than 30 goals when we do that.

 

[rgauci]

I was against trading for JOM, but I’ve changed my mind. Played onball in 2021 and was very good. Sam Mitchell moved him off the ball this year and his numbers dropped. He played onball against us and was exceptional.

I’m not sure we’ll drop down the ladder. At lot will depend on Treacy, Amiss, Taberner being fit and in form.

If they fire we’ll move up the ladder, if they falter we’ll drop. Also a lot riding on A.Pearce and Cox staying fit. Hopefully Hamling fires up for some much needed depth.

 

[Boomer93]

I expect Chapman to make the jump that Young did this year, in to AA territory. But how much does the 21 year old Young improve beyond where he is right now?

I expect Serong to make the jump Brayshaw did this year, in to Brownlow territory. But how much does Brayshaw improve this season?

O'Driscall is going to explode this season.

Brodie should improve again.

21 year old Clark just played his first full season, where does he go to next year?

Brandon Walkers potential is enormous, does the teenagers composure improve after all of last years experiance?

Darcy is the same age as Meek, he still has massive upside, especially now he has the support of Jackson.

Schultz, Switta, Pearce, Cox, Aish, Ryan have all turned in to absoloute A graders and are just coming in to their prime (Pearce has come a little later due to the injuries).

Does Fyfe get his body right? He offered 0 this season, any more then that is an improvement to the squad. He could be massive, Dangerfield is older and managed to turn his form around.

With Darcy and Jackson we have two more key forward spots to fill.
We have Taberner.
Amiss who looked elite and will take another huge step forward through preseason.
Treacey who dominated the wafl when fit as a teenaged power forward and even showed glimpses at AFL level, who knows how much he improves turning from a teenager in to a man over pre season.
We could even go smaller and run a combination of Fyfe, Corbett or Sturt to make up some marking in the forwardline.
Now I really wanted to keep Lobb, but 36 goals is nothing amazing, Schultz kicked 30, Tabs has kicked more before in much worse sides.

Jaeger is the perfect player to replace Mundy as the older head in midfield. The biggest reason for this is defensively, Jaeger works hard defensively and we know how highly JL regards that from our midfield.

Who knows what sort of step Jackson makes next year, the hype is crazy and everyone can see his potential.

Erasmus could explode next season. Johnson never got a preseason, he could explode himself.

I don't see how people think we will go backwards, even after losing Lobb. Acres was good this season, but I expect Noddy to go past him this year. Logue was nothing but a role playing forward. Meek and Tucker would not be anywhere near our line up.

Provided the injuries aren't too bad, the amount of improvement we get through Jackson, Omeara and most importantly our core of talented youth should far out way a 36 goal forward and some role players.

 

[Alfonz]

Hawthorn fluked the flag in 2008 with the same average age that we had in the Pies game. It was a season just like 2022 where Geelong were the clear standout team and then several were fairly even. Many of the Hawks that became their superstars were 19-22. They then went 9th and 7th, before becoming a force.

There are about 10 sides who can all make legitimate cases for top 4 next year. The 8 this year plus Carlton and Port. Usually 3-4 sides will drop out of the 8. It is very possible we go backwards. Shouldn't assume anything. Anything can happen. I have chances something like 20% top 4, 40% 5-8, 40% 9-12.

 

[Cobbler]

For what it’s worth we’re 10th in line for the flag. Harsh.

I like that we have cut guys that supporters have had issues with. We’re young.

Next year I think we can maintain a high standard and challenge for the top 4.

 

[Lach72]

Hawthorn fluked the flag in 2008 with the same average age that we had in the Pies game. It was a season just like 2022 where Geelong were the clear standout team and then several were fairly even. Many of the Hawks that became their superstars were 19-22. They then went 9th and 7th, before becoming a force.

There are about 10 sides who can all make legitimate cases for top 4 next year. The 8 this year plus Carlton and Port. Usually 3-4 sides will drop out of the 8. It is very possible we go backwards. Shouldn't assume anything. Anything can happen. I have chances something like 20% top 4, 40% 5-8, 40% 9-12.

Hawthorn had two huge generational key forwards.
Carlton have that. Us? Not so much yet

 

[Rockmelon]

Our back 6 is still rock solid.

Our midfield with JOM has great depth with lots of weapons, Jackson also adds another weapon for us to through into centre bounces.

Our Forward line might struggle a bit in the early part of the season as we figure out the best set up, but will have plenty of mobility and pace! Tabs staying fit is key I think

Another pre season for our youngsters like Chappy, Young, Frederick, Walker and Amiss should see them all take another step.

X factor is Fyfe. If he can get his body right and get anywhere near his previous form then the sky is the limit for us next year!

Playing finals again next year is a pass mark from me

 

[Shadow Man]

My only concern is the loss of Lobb.

Who will kick 30+ goals this year in his place?

I agree but it's hard to hold someone who doesn't want to be there, genuinely believe though that Lobb's best 3 years are ahead of him. Bulldogs got him cheap!

 

[Bigger]

I agree with the Brayshaw observation from the OP. Brayshaw's willed himself into being the best two-way-running inside mid in the comp, but force of will doesn't always trump force of force and it's the running thing that is the true strength here. De Goey has an inch or two and close to ten kegs on him. You can't just decide to beat him and others like him.

For all the obvious commentary about our forward line weakness, the reality is our onball management last season was as good as it could get given the resources. Given Brodie's limitations (if he's not trundling through the middle, he's sitting on the pine and his limited tank limits how much trundling can be done), I don't know how they got the even spread of controlled minutes they did with the same 4 or 5 blokes. We needed more to work with already and with Mundy gone we needed even more. I have no idea where Fyfe is at, but Erasmus and O'Meara are more straight off the bat and Fyfe will only benefit from limited game time this season. Hopefully Johnson gets a crack as well but he's more likely to edge his way into the middle over time.

It is true that 206 cm forwards don't grow on trees but Lobb kicked 36 goals in his best ever season and his ruck minutes were the lowest they would ever have been. That was his best crack and it was resolutely mediocre. He's a rare commodity but he's not a very good one. To paraphrase Dr Johnson, it is like a dog walking on his hind legs. It is not done well but it is a surprise to see it done at all.

If the substance of our ball movement is that we want to work the ball up the paddock via short aggressive leads, then it makes sense to continue that and have true leading forwards running hard the * at the feet of the ball carrier. Not have some soft galoot direct it out the back and force the kick to be a donkey lob on the heads of the pack.

Amiss, Treacy and Corbett are all lead-up forwards with strong hands and good goal-kicking routines.

Tabs' standard 10 games to assist Amiss' natural development. Amiss' natural development. A glandular-fever-free Treacy having an uninterrupted preseason. Corbett and/or Sturt rounding out the targets. Add the mosquito squad. That's a better forward line than Tabs, Lobb and Logue running to the same spot.

The honchos had a top 6 finish as their goal/internal metric this last season. They know where we are at.

If the messaging starts being about managing expectations, then I'll temper mine but for me, right now, I want more. You know what they say. If you stay still, you go backwards.

 

[Big Animal]

well, considering you are never wrong, I have nothing to add

 

[freo1]

I think a big part of how we go next year will be based on the improvement of other teams. I don't necessarily think we'll regress, but other teams will improve. I do agree though that 2024 will be the year we should have high expectations. I think 2023 will be a more even season. So much luck with injury is needed. Any given team is only a few injuries to key personnel away from having a bad year.

For 2023

• I expect Port to improve a lot - they had a bad year with injury and just bad luck after a slow start. I still think they're a top team and their inclusions in trade week will help enormously.
• I expect Richmond to again challenge strongly. With Martin being fit and their trade inclusions, they'll be a strong chance.
• I expect Carlton to be around the mark again as well with their expected development.
• I think the dogs will improve. They've lost Dunkley, their best mid, but i think Liam Jones
  19

  Liam Jones

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  will strengthen them down back, and Lobb will obviously help and allow them to put Naughton down back a bit when they're in trouble. Even if they dont make the finals, they'll still need respect and be tough to beat on their day.
• Adelaide showed to be dangerous this year. At home they'll be a handful.
• Gold Coast will be mid range and take a few scalps, especially with King back up forward.
• Melbourne, Geelong, Collingwood, Sydney will again be top teams
• I dont know how Essendon will go. They could really challenge if Scott gets them humming, or could go the other way for a year. Still I think they have some upside.

So that 10-12 teams (including us) i think that could not necessarily challenge for the flag, but at least be hard to play on any given day and should be aiming strongly for finals. I think the easy beats will be the Hawks, Giants, North, Saints and the Eagles, though Derbies are always tricky (and i think the Eagles will improve a little next year with less injuries etc).

Going to be an interesting year, and our new ins will certainly take time to gel i would think.

 

[Square Peg]

It's 2023 and in my mind it's still mainly about Fyfe, and to a lesser extent Tabs. Ask 100 people what our number one weakness as a team is, 95 will say lack of marking power inside forward 50 and the other 5 are drunk. And we've just traded away the guy most likely to mark the damn thing in the forward line.
Fyfe has to get his body right and play mostly half forward, Tabs has to somehow for once stay fit for a season, and we'll be okay. Medical staff will need an A grade year for us to be up there.

 

[greatgatsby]

I agree with the Brayshaw observation from the OP. Brayshaw's willed himself into being the best two-way-running inside mid in the comp, but force of will doesn't always trump force of force and it's the running thing that is the true strength here. De Goey has an inch or two and close to ten kegs on him. You can't just decide to beat him and others like him.

For all the obvious commentary about our forward line weakness, the reality is our onball management last season was as good as it could get given the resources. Given Brodie's limitations (if he's not trundling through the middle, he's sitting on the pine and his limited tank limits how much trundling can be done), I don't know how they got the even spread of controlled minutes they did with the same 4 or 5 blokes. We needed more to work with already and with Mundy gone we needed even more. I have no idea where Fyfe is at, but Erasmus and O'Meara are more straight off the bat and Fyfe will only benefit from limited game time this season. Hopefully Johnson gets a crack as well but he's more likely to edge his way into the middle over time.

It is true that 206 cm forwards don't grow on trees but Lobb kicked 36 goals in his best ever season and his ruck minutes were the lowest they would ever have been. That was his best crack and it was resolutely mediocre. He's a rare commodity but he's not a very good one. To paraphrase Dr Johnson, it is like a dog walking on his hind legs. It is not done well but it is a surprise to see it done at all.

If the substance of our ball movement is that we want to work the ball up the paddock via short aggressive leads, then it makes sense to continue that and have true leading forwards running hard the * at the feet of the ball carrier. Not have some soft galoot direct it out the back and force the kick to be a donkey lob on the heads of the pack.

Amiss, Treacy and Corbett are all lead-up forwards with strong hands and good goal-kicking routines.

Tabs' standard 10 games to assist Amiss' natural development. Amiss' natural development. A glandular-fever-free Treacy having an uninterrupted preseason. Corbett and/or Sturt rounding out the targets. Add the mosquito squad. That's a better forward line than Tabs, Lobb and Logue running to the same spot.

The honchos had a top 6 finish as their goal/internal metric this last season. They know where we are at.

If the messaging starts being about managing expectations, then I'll temper mine but for me, right now, I want more. You know what they say. If you stay still, you go backwards.

I was thinking of having another crack at this subject but there's no need now. In fact I might slink off and re-read some Samuel Johnson. Oh, and I don't think it's too optimistic to expect to get 12 games out of Taberner.

 

[WaywardSonSon]

Can someone please enlighten me as to why we've been deemed to be the tenth most likely club to win the premiership next year? What a load of sh*t.
The pure disrespect from the remainder of the collective "VFL" world is mind boggling!

 

[Square Peg]

Can someone please enlighten me as to why we've been deemed to be the tenth most likely club to win the premiership next year? What a load of sh*t.
The pure disrespect from the remainder of the collective "VFL" world is mind boggling!

It's not the VFL world, it's betting odds at Sportsbet. Bookies don't typically lose money so if it really offends you and you want it to change, throw a lazy 50k on us and suddenly we'll be second favourite or something

 

[greatgatsby]

It's not the VFL world, it's betting odds at Sportsbet. Bookies don't typically lose money so if it really offends you and you want it to change, throw a lazy 50k on us and suddenly we'll be second favourite or something

Thanks for the tip - I'm already on! (Bookies win money from mug punters.)

 

[greatgatsby]

By the way, Tabcorp are keeping relatively safe eight(!) teams (we're the eighth). Both Carlton and us are value I reckon. Three or 4 of them are under the odds, including Geelong.

 

[eastfreo75]

We will make finals.

Fremantle has too many players on the way up, generally players has second year blues but don’t have a lot in that book. Plus we don’t have many older players on the decline.

Players tend to break out around years 3-5 and we have a truckload of players in that bracket.