Player Watch 2023 AFL Draft Pool Discussion Thread

[Strapping Young Lad]

Same rule applies to this thread as other years, keep it on topic about the kids.
Don’t get bogged down on what other teams might do or where they will finish.

Trade speculation belongs here.
That's also where you can discuss your mock drafts or pick trades.

Any McCabe, Dear or Maginness talk belongs here.

 

[Bugs1977]

I'll spell it out again as fully as possible. It isn't just between us, North & WC it also involves Geelong.
(we're assuming it's Geelong - it might be Dees or Dogs ... either way they're talking to one of them).

So the deal would be us giving North pick 4 & F1.
WC giving us pick 1.
North giving WC picks 2 & 15 & F2
WC giving Geelong (?) their F1 for pick 8.

North then has two early firsts next year (and this year - which is why they came up with this).
Geelong would have two early firsts next year.
I'd assume Geelong would like having two early firsts next year in a deep draft of good mids considering their 'old man' midfield now.
We'd have Reid & McCabe and then our F2 next year.
WC would have picks 2, 8 & 15 this year and picks 21 & 22 next year.

And if it came to all parties agreeing but AFL not allowing us to trade our F1 I'm sure WC, North and Cats would flip a F3 & F4 our way to get it done.

Like I said earlier, it depends on how WC see their rebuild.
North like it (they offered it), we like it. The stumbling block right now is WC and the 4th party.

I can't see this deal happening BUT if it did then does the draft fall like this?

Pick 1 – Hawks – Reid
Pick 2 – Eagles – McKercher
Pick 3 – Suns – Walter*
Pick 4 – North – Duursma
Pick 5 – North – Sanders
Pick 6 – Dogs – Watson
Pick 7 – Demons – Caddy
Pick 8 – GWS – Wilson
Pick 9 – Eagles – Curtin

*matched bid


For me I don't think North or Eagles will do this. I think North would want to leave with McKercher + Duursma whereas Eagles will want to leave with McKercher + Curtin. There's just too many variables in the way for all that to happen.

 

[Bugs1977]

Beginning to think that I really should have never caved on letting trade scenarios enter this thread.

Can we talk about the players in the draft at all?

Getting soft SYL

 

[Philhawk]

Look at it this way, it depends on how they see their rebuild and how much thewy rate Curtin.
If they stay pat they get Reid this year and that's it. Their next pick is 23 which wont get them anything dependable in this shallow draft. And next year they'd also only have one first.
If they do the deal, they will have THREE firsts this year - 2, 8 & 15 and then would have picks 21 & 22 next year in a much deeper draft.

It equates to three good picks versus five. Something to think about.

I'll do my best to interpret your post

Hawks:

Out: 4, F1
In: Pick 1

West Coast:

Out: 1, F1
In: 2, 8, 15

North:

Out: 2, 15
In: 4, HawksF1

Geelong:

Out: 8
In: WCF1

Yeh, every team wins from this - besides the Eagles. It's a massive risk for them, considering they're odds on for another Pick 1.

 

[dermott]

That is horrible for WCE.

Give up pick 1/2 next year for pick 8 in this draft?

Never, ever happening.

Exactly. This trade scenario has no credibility.

 

[cryptor]

I'll do my best to interpret your post

Hawks:

Out: 4, F1
In: Pick 1

West Coast:

Out: 1, F1
In: 2, 8, 15

North:

Out: 2, 15
In: 4, HawksF1

Geelong:

Out: 8
In: WCF1

Yeh, every team wins from this - besides the Eagles. It's a massive risk for them, considering they're odds on for another Pick 1.

I believe there was a F2 from North heading to Eagles also.

I think Geelong needs to send their F1 to Eagles also.

 

[tl92]

I'll do my best to interpret your post

Hawks:

Out: 4, F1
In: Pick 1

West Coast:

Out: 1, F1
In: 2, 8, 15

North:

Out: 2, 15
In: 4, HawksF1

Geelong:

Out: 8
In: WCF1

Yeh, every team wins from this - besides the Eagles. It's a massive risk for them, considering they're odds on for another Pick 1.

My guess is that it’d have to be something more like this to appeal.

Hawks:
Out: 4, F1
In: Pick 1

West Coast:
Out: 1, F2
In: 2, 8, 18

North:
Out: 2, 15, 17, 18
In: 4, Hawks F1, Eagles F2

Geelong:
Out: 8
In: 15, 17

 

[Kuuz]

Being an Eagles fan which would you prefer?

a) Picks 2, 15 and a F2 from North

OR

b) Pick 4, F1 and F2* from Hawthorn

*Eagles send back a 3rd rounder

c) Hold pick 1 and just select Reid

TBH putting myself in their shoes, I like first option - purely as they get their WA boys in Curtain and Collard at those picks (although Collard would be close - seen some rating him just outside the top 10).

Obviously, pure points-wise the second selection wins. But I keep seeing people mis-value future picks, by pricing them as if you could exercise them at today's value. Future picks are ALWAYS discounted at today's value, due to volatility of pick, risk & desire to stock up now rather than in 12 months (plus mooted less diverse draft next year). So Options A and B are fairly close.

Simple finance concept of "a dollar today is worth more than a dollar earned tomorrow". Same applies to picks and future picks. You can never value them at today's equivalent value, they're massively discounted.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Getting soft SYL

That's what she said/

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It's a massive risk for them, considering they're odds on for another Pick 1.

Doubt they'll be that bad again next year. Keep half their players fit and they'll beat a bunch of sides.

 

[KeeperLeaguer]

You're starting to lose that supposed "ITK" reputation you so desperately desire KeeperLeaguer.

I don't desire anything. I don't pretend to know anything.
All I'm doing is passing on any info that comes to me at the club. If it doesn't make sense to you blame the info not me.

I'm just as happy to STFU and leave you guys to it. I'm going to be busy from Wednesday till after the draft so the floor is your Hawks2011. Have fun chaps.

 

[FB19]

Regardless of pick 1 trading, which won’t be for us to get it, we will be choosing between 2 of McKercher Curtin and Watson worst case. That’s fine by me I think all 3 will be very good to elite players. McKercher is the mid we don’t have, Curtin could be the long term Sicily replacement with blanck and McCabe and weddle up on a wing and the selection of Watson is well…Elementary.

 

[unitedhawk]

That's what she said/

Mine too!

 

[excitingnews]

Anyone know how much serong has grown this off season?

 

[HeHateMe]

People should just mind their own business.

I enjoy reading your posts KeeperLeaguer, but I wouldn't put up with those petty comments either. So i understand if you CBF anymore.

 

[excitingnews]

People should just mind their own business.

I enjoy reading your posts KeeperLeaguer, but I wouldn't put up with those petty comments either. So i understand if you CBF anymore.

People would apparently rather fling sh*t about which of Curtin or Watson is better for the next 2 weeks

 

[hardway]

That’s great news, I’ll stop obsessing over Curtin then…

If he is the best available at our pick your obsession may still occur regardless of McCabe.

 

[burner1]

Beginning to think that I really should have never caved on letting trade scenarios enter this thread.

Can we talk about the players in the draft at all?

Outside of the tiresome Watson vs curtain/others debate there’s not much else to discuss. We’ll match McCabe and likely dear.

Not sure what sort of pick we’ll have left?

There’s a few interesting types possibly available late eg o‘Driscoll or O’Leary - guys who play wing and have athleticism to burn. Or possibly some small forward types. But unclear how many picks we’ll use is we have a SSP candidate in mind.

 

[Roddy]

If he is the best available at our pick your obsession may still occur regardless of McCabe.

I would not be upset about that….

 

[cs61]

I'll do my best to interpret your post

Hawks:

Out: 4, F1
In: Pick 1

West Coast:

Out: 1, F1
In: 2, 8, 15

North:

Out: 2, 15
In: 4, HawksF1

Geelong:

Out: 8
In: WCF1

Yeh, every team wins from this - besides the Eagles. It's a massive risk for them, considering they're odds on for another Pick 1.

Cheers for the summary.

I think that is as close to a fair trade as I've seen.

Hawks get pick 1 but pay two very good picks.
Eagles get Curtin + 2 first round picks, including one more in the top 10.
North get an extra F1 next year probably in the top 10.
Geelong get possibly a top 2 pick.

I think North probably need an extra sweetener, but seems like something close to a realistic trade in there. Eagles probably want the chance to get Curtin, and that might be close to the best deal available. Not saying it will go through, but it is getting close to the ballpark there, certainly something for the Eagles to think about if other clubs find it in their interest.

 

[Flukey!]

The club went to the trouble of nominating Jiath as an academy player.
So there must be interest in him but I guess he has to come for not much to actually make it on to our list.

 

[HomerJayS]

Anyone know how much serong has grown

It doesn’t matter as long as he hasn’t gone soft.

 

[Philhawk]

Cheers for the summary.

I think that is as close to a fair trade as I've seen.

Hawks get pick 1 but pay two very good picks.
Eagles get Curtin + 2 first round picks, including one more in the top 10.
North get an extra F1 next year probably in the top 10.
Geelong get possibly a top 2 pick.

I think North probably need an extra sweetener, but seems like something close to a realistic trade in there. Eagles probably want the chance to get Curtin, and that might be close to the best deal available. Not saying it will go through, but it is getting close to the ballpark there, certainly something for the Eagles to think about if other clubs find it in their interest.

Don’t forget the reason it doesn’t suit Weat Coast at all is because 8 likely becomes 12-ish and 15 becomes a pick in the 20s after matching bids.

It’s a lot less compelling then. Top picks (1 and whatever they are next year) are less likely to slide compared to later picks, making it a really rough deal.

 

[hardway]

The club went to the trouble of nominating Jiath as an academy player.
So there must be interest in him but I guess he has to come for not much to actually make it on to our list.

I would say it was a throw at the stumps that he goes un drafted and become a cat b rookie. Unfortunately doesn’t look like happening.

Pretty much did the family a favour and guaranteed that another one of their boys will be on a AFL list.

 

[cs61]

Don’t forget the reason it doesn’t suit Weat Coast at all is because 8 likely becomes 12-ish and 15 becomes a pick in the 20s after matching bids.

It’s a lot less compelling then. Top picks (1 and whatever they are next year) are less likely to slide compared to later picks, making it a really rough deal.

Yeah indeed that is a valid point, and far from a lock from their end, and I'd expect most likely is doesn't get traded. But if they did consider it, it would come down to how much they rate the players realistically available more so than the number. About if Windsor, O'Sullivan or Caddy as a trio of potential available players is enticing for them or not. Curtin and O'Sullivan could be two key pillars of a future backline secured in the one draft, and key position players are worth their weight in gold if they come on. If they are holding off the best possible deal, then that one is the closest I've seen so far.

 

[CaptainWorpedo]

I'll do my best to interpret your post

Hawks:

Out: 4, F1
In: Pick 1

West Coast:

Out: 1, F1
In: 2, 8, 15

North:

Out: 2, 15
In: 4, HawksF1

Geelong:

Out: 8
In: WCF1

Yeh, every team wins from this - besides the Eagles. It's a massive risk for them, considering they're odds on for another Pick 1.

It is still something that could be work on, maybe north could offer another late first round pick or early second round pick to the eagles.