AFL 2023 Brownlow,Battle of the Bulls

[balmainforever]

ANY BETS POSTED AFTER THE COUNT IS FINISHED WITHOUT PRIOR POSTING WHETHER WINNING OR LOSING WILL GET AN AUTOMATIC RED CARD

 

[GFC29]

Also another early round roughie (I anecdotally think early rounds throw up more surprises - I normally start off bad and then come home flying, by mid season the umps are in full “prime mid gets 3 votes” mode)

Liam Baker v Adelaide, $23 B365

25 disposals, 1 goal, 7 score involvements (=2nd most for Richmond). Winning side. Some reasonable vote history taking into account his role (polls alright when he’s had good stats games, obviously doesn’t poll consistently when he’s played a lot of back pocket/forward flanker).

Other possibles:
Laird - 39 disposals, poor polling history in comparison to stats, losing side

Taranto - 28 disposals, not a standout game for him stats wise, 63% DE

Hopper - best on for coaches, 23 disposals, 1 goal, playing an outside mid role.

Hopper was best on clearly 1st half but drifted away, Crows came back. Baker was consistent throughout.

Edit: Taking Hopper $7 & Baker $23 at very limited amounts on B365 - campaigners

$41 on Ladbrokes with the markets that just opened

 

[HTPunter]

My little smoky, should poll 4 at least maybe 5. Also Betr have it at like 3.20. So it may have been mispriced imo.

The others wont get more than 3 max 4 imo. So if it's a draw it's still $3 return.
View attachment 1813204

Can I ask what games you have him polling in? I prefer Jamie Cripps for that one.

Eagles votes for me:
Rnd 2: Kelly 3 Waterman 2 Shuey 1
Rnd 12: D.Sheed 1.5 (Naicos 3, Mihocek 1.5)
Rnd 16: Shuey 0.5 (Owens 3 Marshall 2 Sinclair 0.5)
Rnd 20: Kelly 2.5 (LDU 2.5), Cripps 0.5 Curtis 0.5
Rnd 21: Kelly 2.5 (Langford/Parish/Merrett the rest - probably 3. Langford 2. Kelly 1. Parish)
Rnd 22: Cripps 3 Kelly 2 (Bontempelli 1)

He won’t poll round 8 or 18 I’d think( multiple Richmond mids had disposals + goals) round 10 (116 pt loss), and non factor in all other games.

Kelly 9-10
Cripps 4
Waterman 2
Sheed 2
Shuey 2

 

[pendlebury_10]

Can I ask what games you have him polling in? I prefer Jamie Cripps for that one.

Eagles votes for me:
Rnd 2: Kelly 3 Waterman 2 Shuey 1
Rnd 12: D.Sheed 1.5 (Naicos 3, Mihocek 1.5)
Rnd 16: Shuey 0.5 (Owens 3 Marshall 2 Sinclair 0.5)
Rnd 20: Kelly 2.5 (LDU 2.5), Cripps 0.5 Curtis 0.5
Rnd 21: Kelly 2.5 (Langford/Parish/Merrett the rest - probably 3. Langford 2. Kelly 1. Parish)
Rnd 22: Cripps 3 Kelly 2 (Bontempelli 1)

He won’t poll round 8 or 18 I’d think( multiple Richmond mids had disposals + goals) round 10 (116 pt loss), and non factor in all other games.

Kelly 9-10
Cripps 4
Waterman 2
Sheed 2
Shuey 2

I also like Cripps at West Coast, the 3 in Round 22 might be enough.

 

[sohohoho]

Anyone else having trouble betting on the who receives 3 votes market, On bet365 seems only letting me stake my bet that gives me just over 60 dollar profit.

This means your account is limited.

 

[Barralupo]

Do taggers ever poll? Finn McGinness is $7 to poll, could poll against Coll or Melb when he tagged Daicos and Oliver?

 

[Pablito]

Can I ask what games you have him polling in? I prefer Jamie Cripps for that one.

Eagles votes for me:
Rnd 2: Kelly 3 Waterman 2 Shuey 1
Rnd 12: D.Sheed 1.5 (Naicos 3, Mihocek 1.5)
Rnd 16: Shuey 0.5 (Owens 3 Marshall 2 Sinclair 0.5)
Rnd 20: Kelly 2.5 (LDU 2.5), Cripps 0.5 Curtis 0.5
Rnd 21: Kelly 2.5 (Langford/Parish/Merrett the rest - probably 3. Langford 2. Kelly 1. Parish)
Rnd 22: Cripps 3 Kelly 2 (Bontempelli 1)

He won’t poll round 8 or 18 I’d think( multiple Richmond mids had disposals + goals) round 10 (116 pt loss), and non factor in all other games.

Kelly 9-10
Cripps 4
Waterman 2
Sheed 2
Shuey 2

Cripps may not even get the 3 for his 5 goal game. Bont/Kelly/Treloar are chances for that game.

Sheed could poll for me in 10 (1 or 2) ,12 (1-3) and 20 (maybe 1).

Sheed could get 3 at worst for me. Cripps at best 3.

 

[fpm84]

Betdeluxe offering $2 for Bont to beat Petracca and Neale - max bet $50.

 

[gillon]

Some Essendon 3 vote bets I like

Draper round 5 - $6 365 and Lads
Was a scrappy game and he had equal top coaches votes. Was most influential based on the eye test and had 3 goals.

Rozee round 8 - $5 Lads
Second best on per AFLCA and had a goal in the last quarter to go with it. Butters was probably best on but good value here with Rozee

Bolton round 10 - $9 365
I had him best on until the last few minutes where we stole a game we should have lost. Merrett won the medal though so it’s a long shot especially if the umps vote after the presentation

Caldwell round 13 - $13 PB
16 and a goal in the second half. We won the game in the third quarter and the first half was a boring slog

 

[tangolikelama]

Zak Butters

9

Zak Butters

Age

23

Ht

181cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.3

4star

K

7.7

3star

HB

6.7

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.8

3star

D

14.7

4star

K

8.9

4star

HB

5.9

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.1

3star

D

17.0

5star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.6

4star

CL

0.6

3star

Under (+28.5)
Patrick Cripps

9

Patrick Cripps

Age

29

Ht

195cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.9

5star

K

9.8

4star

HB

16.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

5.8

5star

CL

7.4

5star

D

21.0

5star

K

10.1

4star

HB

10.9

5star

M

2.5

3star

T

3.8

4star

CL

6.3

5star

D

12.6

4star

K

4.8

2star

HB

7.8

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.2

5star

CL

1.4

4star

Over (+16.5)
Jack Sinclair

35

Jack Sinclair

Age

29

Ht

181cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.5

4star

K

8.1

3star

HB

8.4

5star

M

3.1

3star

T

3.2

5star

MG

235.0

4star

D

15.0

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

5.0

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

3star

MG

376.0

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.2

2star

HB

7.8

5star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.0

4star

MG

138.2

3star

Over (+17.5)
Connor Rozee

1

Connor Rozee

Age

24

Ht

185cm

Wt

79kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.6

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.6

5star

CL

1.0

3star

D

12.8

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

5.3

3star

M

2.9

3star

T

2.4

3star

CL

1.6

4star

D

16.4

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

8.4

5star

M

4.2

4star

T

3.4

5star

CL

0.8

3star

Over (+22.5)
Christian Petracca

5

Christian Petracca

Age

28

Ht

187cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.4

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

3.0

5star

CL

2.5

4star

D

24.4

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.5

3star

T

3.6

4star

CL

3.4

4star

D

19.0

5star

K

7.8

3star

HB

11.2

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.0

4star

Over (+27.5)
Nick Daicos Over (+29.5)
Caleb Serong

3

Caleb Serong

Age

23

Ht

180cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.0

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.6

5star

CL

2.6

4star

D

13.0

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

6.0

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.6

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

13.0

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.6

5star

CL

2.6

5star

Over (+23.5)
Tim Taranto

14

Tim Taranto

Age

26

Ht

188cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.3

5star

K

12.8

5star

HB

9.5

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

4.1

5star

D

17.0

4star

K

12.0

5star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

3.0

4star

CL

5.5

5star

D

15.6

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

8.0

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

4.0

5star

CL

2.2

4star

Over (+23.5)

@120

 

[dontlimitme]

Zak Butters Under (+28.5)
Patrick Cripps Over (+16.5)
Jack Sinclair Over (+17.5)
Connor Rozee Over (+22.5)
Christian Petracca Over (+27.5)
Nick Daicos Over (+29.5)
Caleb Serong Over (+23.5)
Tim Taranto Over (+23.5)

@120

WELL
WELL
*******
WELL
LOOK
WHO
IT
*******
IS

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

 

[dontlimitme]

Zak Butters Under (+28.5)
Patrick Cripps Over (+16.5)
Jack Sinclair Over (+17.5)
Connor Rozee Over (+22.5)
Christian Petracca Over (+27.5)
Nick Daicos Over (+29.5)
Caleb Serong Over (+23.5)
Tim Taranto Over (+23.5)

@120

tailed and

 

[Fullwit]

Zak Butters Under (+28.5)
Patrick Cripps Over (+16.5)
Jack Sinclair Over (+17.5)
Connor Rozee Over (+22.5)
Christian Petracca Over (+27.5)
Nick Daicos Over (+29.5)
Caleb Serong Over (+23.5)
Tim Taranto Over (+23.5)

@120

Is this based on line price?

Bet365 offering most of these @1.70ish

 

[dontlimitme]

Is this based on line price?

Bet365 offering most of these @1.70ish

its based on the king tangolikelama blessing us peasants with free money

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Is this based on line price?

Bet365 offering most of these @1.70ish

I’d say they “were” at the line price

 

[X_box_X]

Since TJM posted, Petracca has steamed on Betfair.

His price on Sportsbet ($6.50) is currently better than the lay price on the exchange.

 

[Hellobill]

Gday all

Have had a stack of PMs from posters asking whether I'm putting up my count this year. As I said after last year's count, I didn't feel inclined to do a lot of work for free, when some posters decided to throw a lot of s**t my way (none of who had the balls to come back after). I do this for fun and have done really well over the years, so don't need rubbish from it.

Interestingly, my count landed a $251 BYO on SB, which anyone could have landed if they followed it.
I may revisit it next year but not this year. Really appreciate those who offered to donate to Beyond Blue in return for my count, that's something I'm really keen to support and considered on that basis but will hold this year

FWIW, I think Petracca is overs tonight and those backing Butters at $5 are brave, for a bloke who has polled 6 career votes - Rozee will take votes there. Best of luck to all tonight and hope you all make some good money.

Cheers
TJM

Thanks for contribution of the years , been superb , hope you are back next year. Famous saying applies I believe " A lion doesn't concern himself with the opinion of sheep". Or more simply f**k the haters !

 

[adammania9]

Just looking forward to the melts at the end of the night

 

[kicksome]

I havent bet as much this year, Each year I just end up shaking my head and wishing they would take the votes off of the umpires. They always throw a massive curveball

 

[GROTTO]

Just looking forward to the melts at the end of the night

Im waiting for the inevitable question, what happens if there is a tie?

 

[Suncraze]

Tracc into $5

 

[HTPunter]

Cripps may not even get the 3 for his 5 goal game. Bont/Kelly/Treloar are chances for that game.

Sheed could poll for me in 10 (1 or 2) ,12 (1-3) and 20 (maybe 1).

Sheed could get 3 at worst for me. Cripps at best 3.

As it is I’ve hedged across Sheed/Shuey/Waterman/Cripps to ensure BE on Shuey, profit on the other 3, across the varied odds books give

 

[GROTTO]

I havent bet as much this year, Each year I just end up shaking my head and wishing they would take the votes off of the umpires. They always throw a massive curveball

Cripps getting 3 votes in a 5 goal loss to the Crows last year was special.

 

[GROTTO]

I miss the good old days of an alleged Brownlow leak!

 

[NYRB]

Zak Butters Under (+28.5)
Patrick Cripps Over (+16.5)
Jack Sinclair Over (+17.5)
Connor Rozee Over (+22.5)
Christian Petracca Over (+27.5)
Nick Daicos Over (+29.5)
Caleb Serong Over (+23.5)
Tim Taranto Over (+23.5)

@120

Think Serong might be the risky leg but Ill tail it at that price. Got odds of $100.48



I like Petracca Over 27.5, Butters Under 28.5, Gulden Under 23.5, Serong Under 23.5. Odds: $11.74 with a Bet Refund if 1 leg Fails.

I tried to avoid the Brownlow odds all season and was surprised Butters was as short as he was come the end of the season. I only really started noticing him around 2nd half of the season.