List Mgmt. 2023 Draft/Trade/FA thread

[Scythe]

Seems a good time to pin this:


OOC players:

• Michael Hibberd (retired)
• Deakyn Smith (delisted)
• Andy Moniz-Wakefield
• Jake Melksham (delisted, will be re-drafted as a rookie)
• Luke Dunstan (retired)
• James Jordon (signed with Sydney as a Free Agent)
• Kye Turner (delisted)

Traded out:

• James Harmes (Bulldogs)
• Brodie Grundy (Sydney)

Traded in:

• Tom Fullarton (Brisbane)
• Jack Billings (St Kilda)
• Shane McAdam (Adelaide)

Drafted:

• Caleb Windsor (Pick 7)
• Koltyn Tholstrup (Pick 13)
• Kynan Brown (Rookie)

 

[Bluelegs]

... or the Eagles getting one. (picks 2 & 3)

They ain't getting a pp.

 

[SugarHealey]

So what's the ideal outcome from here? Been a few years since there's been so many possibilities in front of us. Please correct anything if I'm wrong.

• Let's say Gold Coast beat North and Hawthorn down Freo, we end up with pick 4 and 23.
• And if we don't progress to the grand final we'll probably end up with 15.
• Pick 15 and 23 is the equivalent of pick 5 plus pick 69 - assuming we'd potentially be eying off Gold Coast's pick 5. They would be looking for the best deal for that given they need all the points they can get. We don't have a 3rd or 4th rounder, and I'm not sure those 2 picks along would get it across the line as it's only another 59 draft points. Probably need to throw in pick 34 in exchange for pick 43, which would give Gold Cost 213 extra points. Also giving a little wink along the way that we won't be bidding on any of their academy boys.
• Would leave us with 4, 5 and 43 for a draft hand.
• Obviously we wouldn't do this without an obvious selection in mind, and that's the bit I'm struggling with.
• Assuming there's no priority picks before us (please be the case) then i'm thinking:
• North - Reid
• West Coast - Curtin
• Hawthorn - one of McKercher / Duursma / Watson - I'm thinking they'll probably take Duursma.
• Leaves us with the other two that Hawthorn don't select.
• Whilst Watson looks amazing, I just couldn't see a team using such a high pick on a player the same height as me...pick 10, yes, but not pick 5.
• O'Sullivan seems pretty good and would fill an obvious need, but is he also a reach for pick 5?
• Perhaps we talk with the Bombers and turn 5 and 42 (or 15, 23 and 34 if the Gold Coast deal doesn't happen) into 9, 28 and 68. Gets us back into the 2nd round that way, and the player we might have looked at with pick 5 is still there at pick 9?
• Or do we speak to West Coast, knowing that Curtin would probably be there at 4, and send them 4 and 23 for pick 2 to gazump Hawthorn from taking Duursma.
• Alternatively with all the academy talent so high on the list for Gold Coast, wonder if we could also shake free Mac Andrew. Could be how we use pick 15 instead? Might be the 200cm defender we're looking for, but with 2 years already in the system.

Still try for a pick-swap with Goldcoast, to get their First pick.

I would still try and get Gold Coast's pick. Take a player of our own at 4 (McKercher ideally for me). Try and find someone interested in pick 5 in the 7-10 range and trade back if we are keen on O'Sullivan.

I would also try to deal with the Hawks, on a pick-swap. They may want to do this, as some rumours are said they like Duursma, (maybe the Hawks are spreading that, to encourage a buy/swap of picks, with Us.?)

If we can get the GCS 1st pick, via swaps. then maybe also deal with the Hawks, to leave Duursma to us, or swap our P4 for their P3. (Hypo' leaving us with P3 and P5) after trading with the Hawks.)

Possible we could bring our future 1st 2024 pick onto the table in some way; to enable safe passage of deals.?

 

[SugarHealey]

They ain't getting a pp.

Exactly, what i'm hoping.. that no one gets any extra picks... accept for player trade compensations.

 

[dazzledavey36]

This is what I was concerned about this time last year, re Grundy.

That we needed insurance/cover for Maxy... and a replacement for lJackson... but Grundy is too lumbering for this cover.

This is why I like Archer Reid in the draft 203 cms forward/ruck who is very mobile, and balanced with nice foot skills and a good decision maker.
I think he could develop really well, IF he has the right mindset. Hard enough, and determined enough.? Like any kid should.

He also lacks the competitiveness of a footballer, hence why he's dropping down the draft order.

Watched his championships game and he's not someone that likes body contact that much.

 

[Scythe]

Not remotely interested in spending another high pick on a ruck.

 

[SugarHealey]

He also lacks the competitiveness of a footballer, hence why he's dropping down the draft order.

Watched his championships game and he's not someone that likes body contact that much.

Thanks for that. He has the other stuff.

Which Round do you imagine he'll drop to.?

 

[Demon 16]

How are we well placed? GC don’t need points in 2023 (they are only ~200 in deficit for 4 academy kids) and our future first is likely going to be worse than at least 15 other clubs.

I don’t profess to fully understand the points system - it’s confusing and I’m not smart enough.

There are a few others on here who have made some detailed posts and I think it was Blackas87 who detailed a whole bunch of possible scenarios about 10-15 pages back.

There’s plenty of press about it over the past few months though.

Also from memory, GC has another kid coming through it’s academy next year which they might want some points for.

 

[BaliDemon]

Which other clubs are our main competitors for that GC pick 5 deal?

 

[Bluelegs]

Which other clubs are our main competitors for that GC pick 5 deal?

Could be anyone. A club like Richmond might just do a flat trade for a future first and they would snap it up.

 

[I Love Lamb]

Which other clubs are our main competitors for that GC pick 5 deal?

Hawks F1
Freo F1
West coast F1
North F1
Adelaide F1
X 10 other clubs F1s will be more attractive than ours.

They don’t really need additional points this year so will likely try move it to 2024.

We are pretty far down the pecking order when it comes to having the currency to snare it.

 

[Blackas87]

Hawks F1
Freo F1
West coast F1
North F1
Adelaide F1
X 10 other clubs F1s will be more attractive than ours.

They don’t really need additional points this year so will likely try move it to 2024.

We are pretty far down the pecking order when it comes to having the currency to snare it.

GC will need additional points if they trade their first round pick this year. They can keep pick 4 this year and use it on their academy players, if they trade it they’ll need to get the points back to match the selections of their academy players.

 

[Blackas87]

Could be anyone. A club like Richmond might just do a flat trade for a future first and they would snap it up.

GC won’t have the points then this year to match all their academy players if they strait swap for a future 1st next year.

 

[Blackas87]

Gold Coast don’t need to trade pick 4, they already have the draft points to select their academy players, they can select Jed Walter at pick 4 if no one placed a bid on him before and still have the points to select the other 2.

Gold Coast can’t trade pick 4 in a strait swap for a future pick because then they won’t have the draft points to select all 3 of their academy players.

Gold Coast though are in a position to gain something extra, perhaps a player or more likely to improve next years draft position only as long as they get back the draft points this year to match all their academy players.

Gold Coast pick 4 is worth 2034, so they’d at least want that back and then gain something else.

So which clubs have the draft points (2000 plus) to match Gold Coast’s pick 4 and are willing to give something extra up?



There are currently 10 clubs (not including Gold Coast) with at least 2000 points as things currently stand.

North Melbourne 4923 points but 3000 are for pick 1, without pick 1 they have 1923 points. They’ll need to find more points but are not far off. What else are they willing to give up to entice GC into trading their pick to North?

West Coast 4736 points, pick 2 is 2517. They have 2219 not including pick 2. So they have the points but what are they willing to give as a sweetener? Surely they wouldn’t risk their 1st round pick next year, so their 2nd round pick at best.

Melbourne 4317, pick 5 is 1878. Melbourne have 2439 points not including Freo’s pick 5. Could give GC the points and throw in next years 1st for GC’s 2nd. Dees would back themselves to be top 4 again.

Adelaide 3514, they’d have to include pick 6 (1751) and at least downgrade pick 23 (815) to make the points. It’s only really worth it to Gold Coast if they get something extra back, is it worth it to Adelaide to give more up next year just to move 2 spots up this year? I don’t think so.

Sydney 3404. Pick 12 is worth 1268 points, they still 2136 points with other picks so thats enough, like Melbourne they can sweeten the deal with their 1st and while receiving GC’s 2nd back.

Giants 3338. Pick 7 (1644) and pick 11 (1329) way more points than what is needed, so they could probably downgrade pick 11. But they’ll have to use pick 7 and it’s only a 3 pick upgrade. Don’t think it’s worth it for them.

Hawthorn 3138, pick 3 is worth 2234 so they only have 904 points. They don’t have enough for Gold Coast

Western Bulldogs 3152. Pick 10 (1395), pick 36 (502), pick 64 (101), pick 66 (80) and pick 71 (29) would be 2107 points while still keeping pick 17. They have the points and could be in a position to entice GC with next years draft.

Essendon 2521, would have to give up pick 9 (1469) and 28 (677) to get the points. Where will Essendon be next year? Are they willing to put their 1st pick on the line to move up 5 spots this year?

St Kilda 2055, would have to give up their entire draft hand,


In my opinion no rebuilding club such as North or West Coast are going to come up with the points and then risk next years 1st round pick to entice Gold Coast.
Hawks won’t have the points.
Adelaide and the Giants would be giving up overs to move 2-3 spots up this year.
Essendon would be risking a lot in next years draft to move up 5 spots this year.
Saints a maybe but it’ll be there only pick this year while weakening next years draft

Most likely teams that have points that would be willing to downgrade next years 1st.
Melbourne 2439 points while keeping pick 5.
Sydney 2136 points while keeping pick 12
Bulldogs 2107 points while keeping pick 17

Dees, Swans or Dogs, who’s willing to give up more in next years draft to entice the Suns?

 

[BaliDemon]

Gold Coast don’t need to trade pick 4, they already have the draft points to select their academy players, they can select Jed Walter at pick 4 if no one placed a bid on him before and still have the points to select the other 2.

Gold Coast can’t trade pick 4 in a strait swap for a future pick because then they won’t have the draft points to select all 3 of their academy players.

Gold Coast though are in a position to gain something extra, perhaps a player or more likely to improve next years draft position only as long as they get back the draft points this year to match all their academy players.

Gold Coast pick 4 is worth 2034, so they’d at least want that back and then gain something else.

So which clubs have the draft points (2000 plus) to match Gold Coast’s pick 4 and are willing to give something extra up?

View attachment 1781881

There are currently 10 clubs (not including Gold Coast) with at least 2000 points as things currently stand.

North Melbourne 4923 points but 3000 are for pick 1, without pick 1 they have 1923 points. They’ll need to find more points but are not far off. What else are they willing to give up to entice GC into trading their pick to North?

West Coast 4736 points, pick 2 is 2517. They have 2219 not including pick 2. So they have the points but what are they willing to give as a sweetener? Surely they wouldn’t risk their 1st round pick next year, so their 2nd round pick at best.

Melbourne 4317, pick 5 is 1878. Melbourne have 2439 points not including Freo’s pick 5. Could give GC the points and throw in next years 1st for GC’s 2nd. Dees would back themselves to be top 4 again.

Adelaide 3514, they’d have to include pick 6 (1751) and at least downgrade pick 23 (815) to make the points. It’s only really worth it to Gold Coast if they get something extra back, is it worth it to Adelaide to give more up next year just to move 2 spots up this year? I don’t think so.

Sydney 3404. Pick 12 is worth 1268 points, they still 2136 points with other picks so thats enough, like Melbourne they can sweeten the deal with their 1st and while receiving GC’s 2nd back.

Giants 3338. Pick 7 (1644) and pick 11 (1329) way more points than what is needed, so they could probably downgrade pick 11. But they’ll have to use pick 7 and it’s only a 3 pick upgrade. Don’t think it’s worth it for them.

Hawthorn 3138, pick 3 is worth 2234 so they only have 904 points. They don’t have enough for Gold Coast

Western Bulldogs 3152. Pick 10 (1395), pick 36 (502), pick 64 (101), pick 66 (80) and pick 71 (29) would be 2107 points while still keeping pick 17. They have the points and could be in a position to entice GC with next years draft.

Essendon 2521, would have to give up pick 9 (1469) and 28 (677) to get the points. Where will Essendon be next year? Are they willing to put their 1st pick on the line to move up 5 spots this year?

St Kilda 2055, would have to give up their entire draft hand,


In my opinion no rebuilding club such as North or West Coast are going to come up with the points and then risk next years 1st round pick to entice Gold Coast.
Hawks won’t have the points.
Adelaide and the Giants would be giving up overs to move 2-3 spots up this year.
Essendon would be risking a lot in next years draft to move up 5 spots this year.
Saints a maybe but it’ll be there only pick this year while weakening next years draft

Most likely teams that have points that would be willing to downgrade next years 1st.
Melbourne 2439 points while keeping pick 5.
Sydney 2136 points while keeping pick 12
Bulldogs 2107 points while keeping pick 17

Dees, Swans or Dogs, who’s willing to give up more in next years draft to entice the Suns?

Nicely assessed Blackas87. It appears we are among the front runners to do this deal. We also have a consistent track record of preferring to bring in two higher draft picks every second year, rather than stagger it the traditional way and take one first rounder every year.

I’m all for us being as aggressive as possible to nab this Suns pick and go to the draft with picks 4 (hopefully Freo drops back a spot this weekend) 5 & 17 this season.

Rare opportunity to extend our premiership window if we get this right.

 

[Bluelegs]

Lots of reports now saying Grundy and management speaking with multiple clubs. We're pretty well positioned if he has that much interest. Keen to see how we play it.

 

[BaliDemon]

Lots of reports now saying Grundy and management speaking with multiple clubs. We're pretty well positioned if he has that much interest. Keen to see how we play it.

“Conversations are well and truly down the track. He’s out of Melbourne” - Caro

Dees begin Grundy talks with three clubs; rival’s offer for viral Lion — AFL Trade Whispers

‘He’s out of Melbourne’: 3-way Grundy war as exit looms; rival’s offer for Lion — Trade Whispers

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Lampers]

“Conversations are well and truly down the track. He’s out of Melbourne” - Caro

Dees begin Grundy talks with three clubs; rival’s offer for viral Lion — AFL Trade Whispers

‘He’s out of Melbourne’: 3-way Grundy war as exit looms; rival’s offer for Lion — Trade Whispers

www.foxsports.com.au

Melbourne will be all about improving the list.

If they let Grundy go it will be because Melbourne’s list management are of the view the salary cap space and trade capital make Melbourne’s list better.

Why would Melbourne let a contracted player go if it weakens the list when the list is smack bang in a premiership window? It makes no sense. Gawn gets injured and there are major problems with no Grundy on the list.

So what would make Melbourne’s list better is a clear way to get a ready now backup ruck in the door, ideally one who also has genuine tall forward capability. Sydney have got those players in McLean and Amartey.

If there’s no way to achieve getting the backup ruck that could be competitive if Gawn gets injured, they should just hold Grundy to his contract.

Melbourne hold the cards here. The narrative that they don’t is bizarre.

That said I don’t think Melbourne will be bloody minded and hold out for a clear Dodoro style win if Grundy does move.

 

[ZionMig22]

Melbourne will be all about improving the list.

If they let Grundy go it will be because Melbourne’s list management are of the view the salary cap space and trade capital make Melbourne’s list better.

Why would Melbourne let a contracted player go if it weakens the list when the list is smack bang in a premiership window? It makes no sense. Gawn gets injured and there are major problems with no Grundy on the list.

So what would make Melbourne’s list better is a clear way to get a ready now backup ruck in the door, ideally one who also has genuine tall forward capability. Sydney have got those players in McLean and Amartey.

If there’s no way to achieve getting the backup ruck that could be competitive if Gawn gets injured, they should just hold Grundy to his contract.

Melbourne hold the cards here. The narrative that they don’t is bizarre.

That said I don’t think Melbourne will be bloody minded and hold out for a clear Dodoro style win if Grundy does move.

Great points

I think the MFC have always let players go that want out ie. Hogan, Weids, Jackson, Preuss etc.

Swans have 3 Young Forwards in McLean, Amartey and McDonald who will want to be playing which means one will want better opportunities away from Sydney

Amartey recently signed until end of 2026
McDonald end of 2024
McLean in talks to re sign?

Sydney - Grundy, Pick 36
Melbourne - McDonald or McLean, Pick 28 & 32

 

[noobermensch]

Ryley was one of the few Dragons players that stood up to the heat early as the Knights applied manic pressure around the ground and built a big lead. Sanders kept cracking in at the contest, and without him the scoreline might have gotten ugly.

 

[The Dr]

Great points

I think the MFC have always let players go that want out ie. Hogan, Weids, Jackson, Preuss etc.

Swans have 3 Young Forwards in McLean, Amartey and McDonald who will want to be playing which means one will want better opportunities away from Sydney

Amartey recently signed until end of 2026
McDonald end of 2024
McLean in talks to re sign?

Sydney - Grundy, Pick 36
Melbourne - McDonald or McLean, Pick 28 & 32

No way they'll let McDonald go. He is their future.

McLean makes perfect sense though. He's got upside and is a great fit for our list imo.


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[ZionMig22]

No way they'll let McDonald go. He is their future.

McLean makes perfect sense though. He's got upside and is a great fit for our list imo.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

McDonald has an expiring contract (2024)
McLean is near a new deal

Grundy will play 80-85% Ruck time which leaves McLean pinch hitting for the remainder

 

[BaliDemon]

Fantasising but if we do nab the GC pick I’d love us to engineer a draft haul of …

One of Duursma/McKercher
Watson
O’Sullivan

Strengthen forward, mid and back in one fell swoop.

Probably beyond reach to get all three especially the key back O’Sullivan but maybe there’s a way to move pick 17 up the board. Go all chips in I reckon.

 

[Lampers]

McDonald has an expiring contract (2024)
McLean is near a new deal

Grundy will play 80-85% Ruck time which leaves McLean pinch hitting for the remainder

McDonald is too highly rated to be part of a deal and he’s likely get big offers from West Coast at the end of next year.

McLean would be the one Melbourne should be after. Competent forward and competent ruck.

Assuming Ladhams is still hanging around they have an excess of forward/rucks as it is and then you add Grundy and it’s very crowded. Is Hickey going around another year?

 

[DemonZombie_001]

I noticed on "On the Couch" last night Gary Lyon said he visited Reid and that was in part related to WCE getting pick 1 (as he said North have the Number 1 pick now so they will hold onto that and whatever he was doing is now scuttled). There was def something happening.

I woud love to be a fly on the wall for all the draft/trade shenanigans that go on.

 

[I Love Lamb]

Hawks 2nd rounder which Sydney holds for Weddle gets Grundy done - currently pick 22