List Mgmt. 2023 List Management and Trading (Part 2)

[PeterSalt]

Do you have a link to the article? I can't find anything on Google or the AFL website. Not doubting you, just trying to find the article you referenced.

From the article below:

"For instance, it would have allowed Adelaide to list one of Rory Sloane or Taylor Walker as a veteran for 2024 and opened up another spot on their primary list. The idea was designed to keep veterans in the game without sacrificing a list spot that a youngster may have taken, with the veteran’s full payments still counted in the salary cap."

Roos target pick one, Dee to go on, big Dog to stay

Check out all the latest trade news from around the League

www.afl.com.au

There's a link in the post above

 

[ftmch]

Love this..

Crows prise highly-touted father-son gun from SANFL rival - Crows prise highly-touted father-son gun from SANFL rival

 

[Big Dub]

Big Dub care you post your post on rucks in this thread given the discussion going on.

Plus it makes my opinion look better

As requested (from the Draft thread):

Given that there appears to be some conjecture about the availability of a decent ruck to replace ROB in the future, I thought that I’d run some numbers to see just how hard it is to bring in a good ruck.

In 2023, there were 66 rucks (including ruck-forwards and ruck-defenders) on AFL lists. 45 of whom got at least one game in 2023, with 19 of these playing 17 or more games. Four of these rucks were classified as elite (top 10%), being Gawn, English, Marshall and Witts. Another 9 were classified as above average for 2023, including our own ROB. Clearly, we don’t want a downgrade on ROB with our next ruck.

9 of these elite and above average rucks joined their current club via a draft, with the other 4 traded in. The picks used to get these rucks ranged from top 5 picks to rookie picks (including MSD and PSSP).

Since the 2010 draft period, clubs have used the draft or trade to bring in a ruck on 208 occasions. Only 25 of these (12%) averaged 15 or more games a year for more than 3 years for that Club (ie a best 22 player, after allowing some time to develop) and another 17 (8%) played at least 50 games at less than 15 per season (ie backup ruck). So that’s a ruck fail rate of 62%.

But we can cut that down pretty quickly:

• 91% of Cat-b rookies fail. Mason Cox (113 games at 12.6 a year) is the only “success” from 25 attempts (with 3 still too early to tell).
• 96% of rucks drafted at 25 years or older fail. Josh Walker at (third club) North the only exception from 23 attempts.
• 72% of rucks traded at 25 years or older fail, with only 13% resulting in best 22 players for their new club, from 35 attempts. Each of these was a top 22 player from the Club they left (except Stefan Martin, who had played a full season the year prior with Jamar injured). Grundy failed, but if he'd gone to a club with a non-elite existing ruck, he probably would have been a success.

But, after removing those key risks, only 38% of rucks drafted in the top 40 have failed, with 38% making it as best 22 players:


The story with trades is pretty similar up to pick 40, but trades for late/ rookie picks look to have better value than in drafting:


Key takeaways:

• If you can trade in an existing top 22 ruck, it doesn’t matter that they are older than 24. Otherwise, stay young.
• It doesn’t matter which pick you use to trade in a young ruck, but after pick 20 has a 40% chance of getting a top 22 player and a 20% chance of a backup ruck, so look a better bang for buck option than early picks.
• But there were only 24 trades for young rucks in the last 13 years, so leaving our next ruck to this option might be a bit risky
• Rucks drafted from picks 21 to 40 have a 38% chance of getting a top 22 player and a 25% chance of a backup ruck, so look a better bang for buck option than early picks.
• Most drafted rucks are taken with late or rookie picks and most of those fail, but it also doesn’t cost you much to try.
• Most drafted rucks take several years to become regular players, with the exception of ruck-forwards. So we need to start now or this option might be a bit risky.
• Goad (or Mitchell, Green or A Reid) would look good in a Crows jumper.

So, taking a ruck with pick 20 (which will drift to 25ish) shouldn’t be too much of a concern. And why not give Toby Murray a shot next year too, what’s the harm?

 

[spenze]

Strachan would have immediately got a "depth" list spot at another club...i.e. Tom Campbell.There is no getting away from it Strachan is a great depth option on minimum chips.

Strachan has built a decent financial career being our back up ruck. He'd be on at least 200k (don't think much more) which for a guy who is going to rack up 6 or 7 seasons...handy money.

Good on him too, always like the way he goes about it in the SANFL

 

[Eagleboy2011]

Strachan would have immediately got a "depth" list spot at another club...i.e. Tom Campbell.There is no getting away from it Strachan is a great depth option on minimum chips.

With Ports ruck issues he would be close to a starting 22 player at that club.

 

[rabidcrow]

Barnett has ben bog ordinary in his 1st year in the WAFL and unless he improves he'll be behind Williams for a long time yet and there's every likelihood the WCE will hit this draft for a ruckman.

Good point. So we avoided a draft bust with pick 20 or so last year? Better to overpay an up and comer that we see signs in and trade for them (like Jacobs) than draft one?


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[George CantStandYa]

Good point. So we avoided a draft bust with pick 20 or so last year? Better to overpay an up and comer that we see signs in and trade for them (like Jacobs) than draft one?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

One example when you’ve been given the history per Big Dubs post?

What about the mids or forwards or defenders who have been busts with decent picks? Should we stop drafting those too?

 

[Mostyn]

One example when you’ve been given the history per Big Dubs post?

What about the mids or forwards or defenders who have been busts with decent picks? Should we stop drafting those too?

To be fair, you need a dozen+ forwards on your list. Same with mids and defenders.

You need two or three rucks, so you don't have to be so scattershot with getting them. You can be strategic, as you're probably just filling one spot.

That being said - I'm fine with the third pick being a project ruck, if we think Goad has that kind of upside. I also think it's perfectly valid to use that pick on someone else, if they're best available.

It's too simple to say you solely "draft for talent, trade for need" - but shit you hope we at least prioritise talent.

 

[George CantStandYa]

To be fair, you need a dozen+ forwards on your list. Same with mids and defenders.

You need two or three rucks, so you don't have to be so scattershot with getting them. You can be strategic, as you're probably just filling one spot.

That being said - I'm fine with the third pick being a project ruck, if we think Goad has that kind of upside. I also think it's perfectly valid to use that pick on someone else, if they're best available.

It's too simple to say you solely "draft for talent, trade for need" - but s**t you hope we at least prioritise talent.

We’ve had 2 on our list now for years, so we are short even on your 3.

It’s time we added one.

Did you see Big Dubs analysis? Thoughts?

 

[Mostyn]

We’ve had 2 on our list now for years, so we are short even on your 3.

It’s time we added one.

Did you see Big Dubs analysis? Thoughts?

I think our club feels they have four ruckmen on the list currently. Adding one who's only a ruckman and not a ruck-forward is an option, but considering you only need to play one ruck a week it's a long way from urgent.

Which analysis was Big Dubs? There seems to be quite a few posts that pointed out the number of traded rucks in the league, including the lead ruck for the premier. With so many rucks and so few opportunities for them, you would think there's always available rucks to be found when you need one.

Maybe not a B&F level ruck - but the ruckmen for both grand finalists didn't feature in their B&Fs, so it's hard to argue that it's particularly important for success.

 

[George CantStandYa]

As requested (from the Draft thread):

Given that there appears to be some conjecture about the availability of a decent ruck to replace ROB in the future, I thought that I’d run some numbers to see just how hard it is to bring in a good ruck.

In 2023, there were 66 rucks (including ruck-forwards and ruck-defenders) on AFL lists. 45 of whom got at least one game in 2023, with 19 of these playing 17 or more games. Four of these rucks were classified as elite (top 10%), being Gawn, English, Marshall and Witts. Another 9 were classified as above average for 2023, including our own ROB. Clearly, we don’t want a downgrade on ROB with our next ruck.

9 of these elite and above average rucks joined their current club via a draft, with the other 4 traded in. The picks used to get these rucks ranged from top 5 picks to rookie picks (including MSD and PSSP).

Since the 2010 draft period, clubs have used the draft or trade to bring in a ruck on 208 occasions. Only 25 of these (12%) averaged 15 or more games a year for more than 3 years for that Club (ie a best 22 player, after allowing some time to develop) and another 17 (8%) played at least 50 games at less than 15 per season (ie backup ruck). So that’s a ruck fail rate of 62%.

But we can cut that down pretty quickly:

• 91% of Cat-b rookies fail. Mason Cox (113 games at 12.6 a year) is the only “success” from 25 attempts (with 3 still too early to tell).
• 96% of rucks drafted at 25 years or older fail. Josh Walker at (third club) North the only exception from 23 attempts.
• 72% of rucks traded at 25 years or older fail, with only 13% resulting in best 22 players for their new club, from 35 attempts. Each of these was a top 22 player from the Club they left (except Stefan Martin, who had played a full season the year prior with Jamar injured). Grundy failed, but if he'd gone to a club with a non-elite existing ruck, he probably would have been a success.

But, after removing those key risks, only 38% of rucks drafted in the top 40 have failed, with 38% making it as best 22 players:
View attachment 1852685

The story with trades is pretty similar up to pick 40, but trades for late/ rookie picks look to have better value than in drafting:
View attachment 1852686

Key takeaways:

• If you can trade in an existing top 22 ruck, it doesn’t matter that they are older than 24. Otherwise, stay young.
• It doesn’t matter which pick you use to trade in a young ruck, but after pick 20 has a 40% chance of getting a top 22 player and a 20% chance of a backup ruck, so look a better bang for buck option than early picks.
• But there were only 24 trades for young rucks in the last 13 years, so leaving our next ruck to this option might be a bit risky
• Rucks drafted from picks 21 to 40 have a 38% chance of getting a top 22 player and a 25% chance of a backup ruck, so look a better bang for buck option than early picks.
• Most drafted rucks are taken with late or rookie picks and most of those fail, but it also doesn’t cost you much to try.
• Most drafted rucks take several years to become regular players, with the exception of ruck-forwards. So we need to start now or this option might be a bit risky.
• Goad (or Mitchell, Green or A Reid) would look good in a Crows jumper.

So, taking a ruck with pick 20 (which will drift to 25ish) shouldn’t be too much of a concern. And why not give Toby Murray a shot next year too, what’s the harm?

Mostyn see above.

Goes into detail, clearly shows relying on trading in ready made rucks isn’t the success it’s deemed to be and drafting one and developing with a decent pick is the better option. Which makes sense as that’s the case generally with all players.

Given all that and the state of our rucks, we need to develop one and if the club thinks we have 4 on our list they are idiots, we’ve only got one AFL standard full time ruck.

The two grand finalists have elite midfields, we don’t and we aren’t adding an elite mid with a pick in the 20s this year. How many games did their ruckman play by the way? The Collingwood one missed plenty.

 

[Mostyn]

Mostyn see above.

Goes into detail, clearly shows relying on trading in ready made rucks isn’t the success it’s deemed to be and drafting one and developing with a decent pick is the better option. Which makes sense as that’s the case generally with all players.

Given all that and the state of our rucks, we need to develop one and if the club thinks we have 4 on our list they are idiots, we’ve only got one AFL standard full time ruck.

The two grand finalists have elite midfields, we don’t and we aren’t adding an elite mid with a pick in the 20s this year. How many games did their ruckman play by the way? The Collingwood one missed plenty.

Okay, fair enough. Thinking about this further, I agree.

We're going to have to give something up eventually, and a ruck at 20 probably is the best value decision to make there. It's a good draft for it.

I'm not completely against waiting and trading, but that's partly because I don't particularly think rucks are that important. But we are missing one, so it makes sense.

We have three list spots and we should draft for best available talent, and in this draft that probably will be a ruck.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Okay, fair enough. Thinking about this further, I agree.

We're going to have to give something up eventually, and a ruck at 20 probably is the best value decision to make there. It's a good draft for it.

I'm not completely against waiting and trading, but that's partly because I don't particularly think rucks are that important. But we are missing one, so it makes sense.

We have three list spots and we should draft for best available talent, and in this draft that probably will be a ruck.

Particularly if there is a good local talent available...

 

[rabidcrow]

One example when you’ve been given the history per Big Dubs post?

What about the mids or forwards or defenders who have been busts with decent picks? Should we stop drafting those too?

A bit tongue in cheek George. As I suggested earlier I agree a strong case has been made to draft one. Given Strachan is the same age as Rob we probably need 2 ruckmen in the next 2-3 years. Unlikely we trade for 2 and given the options a ialble this year it’s a good year to draft one


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Gtowncrow]

To be fair, you need a dozen+ forwards on your list. Same with mids and defenders.

You need two or three rucks, so you don't have to be so scattershot with getting them. You can be strategic, as you're probably just filling one spot.

That being said - I'm fine with the third pick being a project ruck, if we think Goad has that kind of upside. I also think it's perfectly valid to use that pick on someone else, if they're best available.

It's too simple to say you solely "draft for talent, trade for need" - but s**t you hope we at least prioritise talent.

Is Goad locked into becoming a ruck? One attribute from his testing which was outstanding was his 20m sprint.

I'd be interested to see what his KPF prospects might be. Imagine that! 206cm who is as quick as Izak.

 

[bonehilda]

Is Goad locked into becoming a ruck? One attribute from his testing which was outstanding was his 20m sprint.

I'd be interested to see what his KPF prospects might be. Imagine that! 206cm who is as quick as Izak.

Tony Bamford (SA U18 coach) loves him and is really talking him up as a unique prospect. Believes he’s only just scratched the surface of his abilities and has enormous upside. Keeps banging on about how agile and freakishly athletic he is for his height. A lot of what he says about Taylor kinda reminds me of how we talk about Riley TT. And he’s 5cm taller…

I think he could be more than a ruck, but if he’s most comfortable there and successfully models his game off Gawn, you’re laughing. Let’s see who lands him first though…

 

[1970crow]

Okay, fair enough. Thinking about this further, I agree.

We're going to have to give something up eventually, and a ruck at 20 probably is the best value decision to make there. It's a good draft for it.

I'm not completely against waiting and trading, but that's partly because I don't particularly think rucks are that important. But we are missing one, so it makes sense.

We have three list spots and we should draft for best available talent, and in this draft that probably will be a ruck.

now's a good time, 2 years in the SANFL building fitness and with Strachan still there we can toggle ruck minutes up and down to suit his development plan/fitness situation etc.

 

[Mostyn]

Tony Bamford (SA U18 coach) loves him and is really talking him up as a unique prospect. Believes he’s only just scratched the surface of his abilities and has enormous upside. Keeps banging on about how agile and freakishly athletic he is for his height. A lot of what he says about Taylor kinda reminds me of how we talk about Riley TT. And he’s 5cm taller…

I think he could be more than a ruck, but if he’s most comfortable there and successfully models his game off Gawn, you’re laughing. Let’s see who lands him first though…

To be fair, Bamford talks some crazy BS about the SA kids. They all sound like superstars when he describes them.

That being said, I like the idea of Goad.

 

[Mostyn]

now's a good time, 2 years in the SANFL building fitness and with Strachan still there we can toggle ruck minutes up and down to suit his development plan/fitness situation etc.

Yeah, I agree.

A good year for rucks and we have a few mature bodies entering the last third of their career to protect him a bit while he develops.

 

[MRB37]

I think our club feels they have four ruckmen on the list currently. Adding one who's only a ruckman and not a ruck-forward is an option, but considering you only need to play one ruck a week it's a long way from urgent.

Which analysis was Big Dubs? There seems to be quite a few posts that pointed out the number of traded rucks in the league, including the lead ruck for the premier. With so many rucks and so few opportunities for them, you would think there's always available rucks to be found when you need one.

Maybe not a B&F level ruck - but the ruckmen for both grand finalists didn't feature in their B&Fs, so it's hard to argue that it's particularly important for success.

One of those ruck options (Himmelberg) is a FA next year and already indicated he wants to head home (and we were happy to let him leave if we could cover his spot with Chol).

Worst case scenario if we take a ruck like Goad is we plop Himmelberg at CHB in our SANFL team and the draftee rotates with Strachan between ruck and the forward line.

 

[Big Dub]

One of those ruck options (Himmelberg) is a FA next year and already indicated he wants to head home (and we were happy to let him leave if we could cover his spot with Chol).

Worst case scenario if we take a ruck like Goad is we plop Himmelberg at CHB in our SANFL team and the draftee rotates with Strachan between ruck and the forward line.

Goad is not a noted goal kicker.

What about sticking him down back in the SANFL? Sub 3 second 20m sprint and good in the air could make him a pretty handy guy to go up against the new breed of 2m+ mobile forwards.

Might also make it easier for him to get some AFL games (in time) while ROB still rucks.

 

[Scorpus]

Would a draftee 18 year old ruck really be any worse at AFL level than Reilly "Zero Marks for Weeks at a Time" O'Brien

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Would a draftee 18 year old ruck really be any worse at AFL level than Reilly "Zero Marks for Weeks at a Time" O'Brien

The difference between ROBs best and worst in terms of marking is glaring

When he's clunking them he's an asset

Seems an all or nothing thing with him

 

[whattagun07]

This is the draft for taking a ruckman, probably the best draft in history for potential AFL ruckmen. Next year looks particularly skinny for rucks unless some spring out of the ground and enter the known pathways, that, or some of the known tall KPP's have a massive growth spurt.

2023 potential AFL rucks
1. Ethan Read 202cm GCS Academy
2. Taylor Goad 206cm SA
3. Mitch Edwards 206cm WA
4. Will Green 204cm VM
5. Vigo Visentini 204cm VM
6. Lachlan Smith 202cm VC
7. Evan Smith 201cm WA
8. Joe Pike 203cm VC
9. Caleb May 207cm Swans Academy
10. Boston Dowling 204cm VM

Mostyn I think it was you that suggested Lachlan Smith was slow? 3.13 at the 2023 Coates Talent League preseason testing according to Kevin Sheahan is pretty bloody respectable for a ruckman in anyone's terms. Didn't test at the Vic State Combine due to injury at season's end but every chancehis time would have even got better given it was his 1st preseason with the Gippy Power.

Edit : Yep just checked it was you.

View attachment 1852464

Kevin Sheehan’s 2023 AFL Draft top prospects: Tall forwards and rucks

AFL Talent Ambassador Kevin Sheehan has released profiles on the top tall forward and ruck prospects ahead of the 2023 AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

Lachlan Smith
State: Victoria Country
State League Club: Gippsland Power
Community Club: Warragul
Date of Birth: 05/10/05
Height: 202cm

Left-footed ruckman who uses his impressive frame to compete ferociously at stoppages and can win his own ball. Was a strong contributor all year for the Gippsland Power in the Coates Talent League averaging 16.8 disposals, 3.7 marks and 19.4 hitouts. Was particularly impressive for Victoria Country in its win over Western Australia at the National Championships. Was unable to test at the state Draft Combine due to injury but his 3.13 seconds on the 20m sprint at the Coates Talent League testing day earlier in the year was an insight into his mobility for a ruckman.

Bloody hell they're getting tall aren't they!?

 

[Golumless]

Would a draftee 18 year old ruck really be any worse at AFL level than Reilly "Zero Marks for Weeks at a Time" O'Brien

Even if they were a phenomenal talent, they would be considerably worse than what O'Brien offers in their first year. Rucks are a slow-burn position and for all the flak ROB cops, he is an AFL level ruck.

 

[George CantStandYa]

With Curtin, if he becomes a defender, where does Petty fit in?

We really need Curtin to become a mid.